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Russian rouble declines further vs dollar on Trump's new Ukraine deadline
The Russian rouble dropped further on Tuesday against the dollar, and the Chinese yuan, in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's announcement of a shorter deadline by which Moscow must agree to an end to its war in Ukraine. LSEG based its data on quotes from over-the counter to calculate the rouble's weakest level in May since it was 82.44 per dollar at 1530 GMT. Tuesday the central bank set the official rate of exchange for the dollar to 82.22 Russian roubles, the first time since mid-April that the rate has risen above 82. Since July 24, the rouble has fallen 4.7% against dollar in four consecutive sessions. The central bank's 200 basis-point cut in the key rate to 18%, its largest decrease in three years, has also contributed to rouble's decline. Trump, expressing his growing frustration at the Russian president Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine and the lack of progress made by Moscow to end the conflict, said on Monday that Moscow had 10-12 days to take action to resolve the conflict. Otherwise, he would face the consequences. In recent days, the dollar has been rising against the rouble. This is due to geopolitical reasons and Donald Trump's comments earlier, said Taras Skovortsov. CFO at Russia's biggest lender Sberbank. He added, "Therefore it is hard to predict whether this wave will become something more significant or stop." Sberbank predicts that the rouble will weaken towards the end the year to around 90 dollars. The rouble fell by 0.8% against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia. It now stands at 11.43. (Reporting and editing by Joe Baviern, Alistair Bell and Gleb Bryanski)
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US oil refinery trade group writes to Trump about his biofuel and tariff policies
In a letter sent to Republican legislators, a leading U.S. refinery trade group criticized the Trump Administration's biofuel policy. This is the biggest disagreement between the oil industry and the president since he returned to the White House. The letter, dated July 25, from the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), seen by also reflects an increasing divide between U.S. refiners and oil producers, an alliance which has been fractured over recent years due to biofuels policies. ExxonMobil, Chevron and other integrated oil companies have invested large sums of money in biofuel production. Independent refiners such as PBF Energy and CVR Energy are complaining that the policy is too farm-friendly and has led to high costs and a threat to their plants. In a letter to House of Representatives speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Republican Leader John Thune, it was stated that current energy policies would negatively impact U.S. oil refining companies, consumers and the "energy dominance" agenda of President Donald Trump. According to the letter, compliance costs for the federal rule will be around $70 billion if the Environmental Protection Agency's proposal to increase biofuels in the fuel blend that oil refiners are required to use is implemented. The letter said that a new section of the proposal, which reduces the value imported biofuel feedstocks, will also increase compliance costs. Oil refiners and U.S. Farmers have been at odds over the federal mandates for biofuels. The oil industry is concerned about cost and infrastructure, and farmers are pushing for higher quotas. The letter also criticized EPA’s handling of waivers granted to small refiners, which exempted them from biofuel blending requirements; EPA’s decision to temporarily allow nationwide sales of gasoline with a greater ethanol content during summertime; and tariffs imposed on imported renewable feedstocks. We understand that some of these policies are intended to promote the biofuel and agriculture industries in the United States, which is what the above clearly aims for. These policies shouldn't come at the expense the U.S. consumer and the domestic refining industries, said AFPM President Chet Thompson in the letter. Since 2010, the U.S. oil refinery industry has been struggling due to the rising fuel efficiency of vehicles, the introduction of electric cars, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the Energy Information Administration, this has led to a stagnation in industry capacity, which is now a little more than 18 million barrels per day. Two major refineries, including the Phillips 66 plant at Wilmington and the Valero refining facility in Benicia, are scheduled to close in the coming months. This will reduce the state's production capacity by almost 300,000 bpd. "AFPM is deeply concerned about the federal biofuel policy, and in particular with the RFS proposal." An AFPM spokesperson responded to the story by saying that they hope to discuss these issues with both the administration and Congress. Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, Stephanie Kelly, and Howard Goller; editing by Chizui nomiyama.
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Gold prices steady as attention turns to US-China talks and Fed meeting
The gold price held almost steady on Tuesday, as the markets focused their attention on upcoming U.S. China talks and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Spot gold was steady at $3,313.63 an ounce by 10:05 ET (15:00 GMT). On Monday, prices fell to their lowest level since July 9, after a trade agreement between the United States of America and the European Union dampened demand for safe havens. The U.S. Gold Futures remained unchanged at $3.311.60. The lack of details and a clear outline of the trade deals announced... continue to keep market participants at a high level of anxiety," said Zain Vwda. Analyst for MarketPulse, by OANDA. Vawda said that a drop below $3,300 in the short term could lead to a fall towards the $3,000 mark. U.S. officials and Chinese officials met for more than five hours in Stockholm, Sweden on Monday to discuss extending the trade truce of three months. Discussions are set to resume on Tuesday. Analysts point out that while recent U.S. agreements with the EU and Japan have provided some relief, talks with China are still complex and lengthy. The U.S. central banks two-day meeting begins later today, and rates are expected to stay the same. Investors will be closely watching the Fed's comments for any indications on the timing and rate of future rate cuts. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, says that the markets are pricing in a rate cut of just 50 basis points by year's end, with October as the likely starting point. He added that dissent by two Fed members might shift expectations towards a September reduction, which would potentially boost gold. In a low-interest rate environment, gold tends to be more attractive for investors due to the lower yield on other assets. Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $37.98 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $1,389.85, and palladium dropped 1.2%, to $1,232.67. Sherin Elizabeth Varighese, Bengaluru (Reporting) and Shash Kuber (Editing).
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Barclays generates 500 million pounds of revenue from sustainable finance
Barclays' sustainability chief said on Tuesday that the bank expects to increase its efforts in climate planning with clients and has made 500 million pounds ($666.20 millions) from transition finance and sustainable low-carbon financing by 2024. The bank stated that it would adhere to its target of net-zero emission by mid-century - despite the political backlash in the United States against climate-related measures - but the pace of the change in the economy is being tested by diverging policies, the continued reliance on conventional energy by many economies, and other factors. Daniel Hanna said that Barclays was committed to the transition, as it provided a great commercial opportunity. He said: "This is not only something we do because it is important for our clients, but it's also an opportunity we believe we are well-positioned to capture on behalf our shareholders. It's also a risk that we have to manage." Hanna stated that lending to customers who use sustainable products generated higher than average returns for the bank. Barclays said that its profits in the first six months of this year were higher than expected by 23%, mainly due to its investment banking division. The bank has set an ambitious target of lending $1 trillion for sustainable and related finance by 2030. It has already facilitated more than a quarter trillion dollars of sustainable and transitional finance since 2020. The bank had also invested 239 million pounds in equity into nascent technology needed to help achieve the climate goals of the world. Hanna stated that there is a great opportunity to scale up climate technology. It creates new job opportunities and growth areas but is also challenging. Hanna explained that the bank already works with clients in a variety of industries. It will now expand its coverage to include listed companies from the commercial real-estate and mining sectors. Hanna explained that the bank uses this framework to understand better how clients intend to move to a future with lower carbon emissions and then offer them guidance and finance to help them achieve their goals. He said that the tool is a great way to engage people, spot opportunities and also identify where portfolios are headed. Over the past few years, our understanding of the transition has really improved. Reporting by Simon Jessop, Editing by Alexandra Hudson. $1 = 0.7505 pound
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Groupe Mexico, a mining giant, reports a 10% increase in Q2 profits
Grupo Mexico, a mining and transportation conglomerate, reported a net profit for the second quarter that increased by 10%. This was despite a decline in revenues and copper production. According to a late-Monday filing, the net profit of the group, a leading copper producer, was $1.23 billion on revenues that fell 4% to $4.24 Billion. This is above the $4.22 Billion estimate by analysts polled at LSEG. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $2.36 billion for the three-month period ending June. LSEG polled analysts who expected EBITDA at $2.22 billion. Grupo Mexico is controlled by German Larrea. It ranks as one of the world's biggest copper producers in terms of volume. The company maintained its forecasts of an annual production of 1,08 million metric tonnes of copper. However, the output of red metal during the first quarter was 267,325 metric tons, which is 1.3% lower than the same period last year. This was due to a decrease in output at the Buenavista Mine, located in the northern state of Sonora, Mexico. The sales also fell 2.9% compared to a year ago, at 252,498 tonnes. Cash costs for the mining division, however, fell 10% from a previous year. In an effort to encourage domestic development, U.S. president Donald Trump announced earlier this month a 50% tariff starting August 1, on copper shipments. It can take many years for home-grown projects to be completed. Its main suppliers are Chile, Canada, and Mexico. The firm reported that the transport division of Grupo Mexico saw its sales fall due to a large extent to the effects of foreign exchange, while the infrastructure arm of the company was affected by the suspension of 4 platform projects from the state oil producer Pemex. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Morland, Noe Torres)
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Mali's mining code has been signed by Endeavour and two other gold producers
Officials from the Mali government confirmed that Endeavour Mining, a London-listed gold producer and two other gold producers had agreed to migrate to Mali’s new mining code. After its implementation in August 2023, the code raised taxes and sought to give large stakes in mining assets over to the government. This led to bitter disputes between mining companies, and helped drive Mali's output of gold down by 23% to 51 metric tonnes last year. Alousseni Sanou, Finance Minister and Minister of Mines, announced on Monday night the new Memorandum of Understanding with Somika SA (80% owned by Endeavour and a 20% share by the Malian State), Faboula Gold & Bagama Mining. The terms of the agreements were not disclosed. Three companies only account for a small fraction of Mali’s gold production. Faboula, Bagama and Somika are all set to begin production in 2021. The three companies have been mostly inactive since the mining codes was adopted. Abdoul Aziz, director of Somika, said that construction on the mine of the company "will start six months after signing the agreement and production will begin 18 months later". "Somika is a 10-year-old company with a turnover of $135 billion CFA Francs (238.9 millions) per year. Bagama has a five-year life expectancy, while Faboula's turnover is 50 billion CFA Francs and 75 billion CFA Francs. Endeavour Mining declined comment. Faboula Gold and Bagama Mining were not available for comment. Barrick Mining, Mali's largest gold miner, halted operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto Complex in mid-January, after the government blocked exports and detained several of its executives. Three tonnes of gold bullion were also seized. The Canadian miner is still locked in a dispute with the Government, having launched arbitration proceedings through the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes at the World Bank. Mali is Africa's largest gold producer, but the regulatory uncertainty has affected investment and output.
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Amazon.com tries to settle lawsuit alleging rice is contaminated with heavy metals
Amazon.com asked a federal court to dismiss a class-action lawsuit over the sale of rice allegedly contaminated with arsenic, and other "heavy" metals. The company denied that it had fraudulently concealed the contamination. Amazon filed a late Friday filing in Seattle Federal Court, stating that the presence of heavy-metals in rice is a "decades old, well-known problem" which was easy to detect. The plaintiffs didn't claim there were any more metals present than the regulators permitted. Amazon said that Section 230 (of the federal Communications Decency Act) shields online platforms like Amazon from any liability for content provided by third parties such as rice sellers. The lawyers for the plaintiffs didn't immediately respond to comments on Tuesday. The lawsuit filed on May 23, covered 18 different types of rice, including brands like Ben's Original or Whole Foods' 365. Ashley Wright and Merriman Blium, plaintiffs, said that they would not or would have paid a lower price for Iberia Basmati Rice, one of their products, if they knew it was contaminated, or if Amazon had never tested the product for heavy metals. Heavy metal exposure has been linked to kidney damage, nervous system disorders and immune system suppression. The heavy metals have also been linked to autism spectrum disorders and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder among young children. The lawsuit was filed after a study conducted by the nonprofit Healthy Babies, Bright Futures, in which arsenic was found in all 145 samples of rice purchased across the country, cadmium, in all but one, and lead, mercury, in more than a third. Wright et al v Amazon.com Inc., U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington (No. 25-00977. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York, Editing by Bill Berkrot
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Dangote Refinery drops suit against Nigerian fuel importers
According to a filing in court, Dangote Refinery retracted its lawsuit over fuel imports against Nigeria's midstream, downstream, and petroleum regulator, as well as several fuel importers including the state-owned NNPC Ltd. Africa's biggest refinery sought to annul fuel import licenses issued to NNPC Ltd., AYM Shafa Ltd., A.A. Rano Ltd., T. Time Petroleum Ltd., 2015 Petroleum Ltd., and Matrix Petroleum Services Ltd. The refinery also demanded 100 billion naira (66 million dollars) in damages. Dangote Refinery filed a lawsuit claiming that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency was violating the laws by issuing gasoline import permits to NNPC and fuel traders. NMDPRA did not comment on the allegation. The suit was filed in the Federal High Court of Nigeria. It stated that imports are only allowed to cover production shortages. Ogwu Oonoja, Dangote’s lawyer, filed a notice to discontinue the suit on Monday, at the Federal High Court of Abuja. He said: “Take notice that this plaintiff discontinues the case against the defendants immediately.” The withdrawal was not explained. The case will still be heard on the 29th of September, when the defendants can either ask for costs or waive them. This allows the court to officially dismiss the lawsuit. Reporting by Camillus EBOH Writing by Chijioke OHuocha Editing Rod Nickel
Morning Bid Europe-Remembering tariffs' downsides
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The Asian markets are quietly picking up after the U.S./EU Tariff Party turned out to be a failure. You felt relieved that only half of your house was destroyed. At least they didn't burn down the whole house.
The euro has a slight firmer future and the dollar is steady at just below $1.1600. It was not surprising that the euro fell so quickly, given the crowded long euro/short-dollar trade. And it is suspected that speculators are soon going to sell the dollar.
In the near future, U.S. consumer will pay a minimum of 15 percent on all imports.
This tax will reduce demand and profits at home while reducing export earnings around the world. Beggar-thy-neighbour policies are so called for a good reason.
It's naive to think that these "deals" will guarantee a period in which everything is certain. Look at how Trump gave Russia a new deadline of 10-12 days for a ceasefire in Ukraine after setting a 50-day deadline earlier this month.
This didn't seem to be planned in any way. Trump said this off-the-cuff during a press conference at his Scottish golf club. Who's to say that a deadline like this can't be changed at whim?
Trump knows how trade and tariffs dominate the news cycle around the world. He's not going to give that up any time soon.
The talks with China are scheduled to continue today in Stockholm and everyone assumes that the deadline for an accord will be extended another 90 days. It is a happy coincidence that this will give Trump time to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, and claim another record-breaking deal.
Wall St is still in its own world, relying on the positive results of megacaps to justify valuations that are at their highest levels since the 1990s. Meta and Microsoft will report on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon are scheduled to follow the next day. Today, a number of European companies will also be reporting their earnings.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday.
Data on U.S. job openings, the June trade balance, and Conference Board consumer sentiment
Fed's two day meeting begins
(source: Reuters)