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The Dutch government claims that the EU has enough jet fuel to last five months.
The Dutch government estimated on Monday that the European Union could supply enough kerosene for the EU economy to last about five months. This would be based on domestic production and strategic reserves. The Iran War has caused a potential shortage of jet fuel within the next few weeks. In a letter sent to the Dutch parliament, it was stated that the domestic supply of jet fuel (or kerosene) is 78% below normal levels as most imports have ceased. The Netherlands is home to several of Europe's biggest refineries, located in the Port?of Rotterdam. The government announced measures to protect households and businesses against rising energy costs. It said that?European productions of diesel and Kerosene combined with strategic reserves of crude oils and oil products could cover "several" months of demand, if current supply disruptions continue. This is equivalent to approximately five months of kerosene and diesel, and a little more than one year for petrol and diesel, assuming that reserves are not diverted and used up. The letter was co-authored by the Dutch Energy Ministry. A spokesperson from the ministry said that the estimate of kerosene included both commercial and reserve supplies. The International Energy Agency says that supplies in Europe will last until June. The government has said that there are no immediate fuel shortages despite the sharp increase in prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This caused a disruption to approximately one-fifth the global oil and natural gas flow. The Dutch government announced that it would "activate the first stage of an oil crises plan" it drafted in 2022. This will involve enhanced monitoring of energy market and preparations for future measures. The package includes a total of approximately 1 billion euros ($1.2billion) in measures. These include tax reliefs for commuters and the transport sector, low-cost loans to invest in energy efficiency at home, and targeted assistance for low-income families.
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GRAINS-Wheat extends its gains due to adverse US weather and Middle East tensions
Chicago wheat futures rose Monday on the back of a?dryness? in U.S.-growing regions, and fears that the ceasefire agreement between?the United States and Iran? may break down. The war fears boosted corn and soybeans, but they were also hampered by expectations for rapid U.S. plantings. Chicago Board of Trade's most-active wheat climbed 1.2% at 1118 GMT to $6.06-3/4 a bushel after firmness in the previous week. Corn increased 0.06%, to $4.48-3/4 per bushel. Soybeans remained unchanged at $11.67-1/4 per bushel. Oil prices increased after the U.S. announced that it had seized a cargo ship?from Iran attempting to break its blockade. Iran also said it would take retaliatory action. Matt Ammermann is the commodity risk manager for?StoneX. He said that wheat is now higher in early trade and the war risk premium has returned. As seen last week the focus is still on the U.S. crop conditions and the Western 'Plains drought that threatens hard red winter wheat. But latest forecasts indicate some hope of rain. He added that the Iran war risks also support soybeans. In a recent note, Argus analysts stated that weather in the U.S. remains a critical factor. "The lack of rainfall across winter wheat areas has long affected yield potential." The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) 'U.S. crop ?progress estimates due later on Monday. Ammermann stated that there is a possibility of a faster than normal planting pace due to the U.S. farmer's trend to plant soy first, especially in the southern states. The market seems to be ignoring crude oil right now. Corn remains mixed. The warm?weather in the Midwest of the United States means that more rapid U.S. planting will take place over the next few weeks. Reporting by Michael Hogan, with additional reporting from Peter Hobson, in Canberra. Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Eileen Soreng.
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Trump calls energy chief wrong, expects lower gas price as soon as Iran War ends
U.S. president Donald Trump dismissed Monday his top energy official's view that gasoline prices won't drop until 2027. He said Americans can expect lower costs once the Iran War ends. Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, told CNN on Sunday that gasoline prices below $3 per gallon could happen this year but that it might not be until next year. "I don't think he is right on that." Trump said to a reporter for The Hill that he was "totally wrong" and added that the prices would be expected to drop as soon as this conflict ended. Wright, who was also on CNN, said that prices would drop "once this conflict is resolved." However, there's no end in sight. The fragile ceasefire will expire soon and it is unclear whether another round of peace negotiations will be successful. Trump and fellow Republicans are facing pressure ahead of the November midterm elections after promising to reduce costs. The U.S. gas prices are still high with months to go. Inflation is on the rise and Trump's ratings have dropped. AAA estimates that the average price of a gallon was $4.04 on Monday, up from $3.15?a year earlier. Globally, oil prices increased 5% on Monday. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz - a major shipping channel - as the 'war that began with U.S. and Israel striking Iran on February 28th reaches its two month mark. Trump had stated that the military campaign was expected to last between four and six weeks. Fuel prices are rising, and this has led to higher prices for a wide range of products and services. This includes everything from housing and airline tickets to fertilizer and groceries. Trump has said that gas prices could'stay high until November, but has tried to dismiss concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted last week that gas prices would drop to $3 per gallon this summer.
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Source: Vance is still in Pakistan for Iran talks, but hasn't left yet.
Sources familiar with the situation say that Vice President JD Vance remains in the United States and has not yet left for Pakistan. The prospects of a second round with Iran are still unclear. Donald 'Trump said that he would be sending a delegation of 'U.S. A delegation will be sent to Pakistan to continue the talks before a ceasefire expires in upcoming days. A senior Iranian official said on Monday that Iran was 'considering' attending the peace negotiations, but there had not been a decision made. Second source said that the U.S. delegation has not yet left, but is planning to travel to Islamabad shortly. The New York Post reported earlier that Trump said in an interview Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump's daughter-in-law Jared Kushner are on their way to the talks. The three 'participated' in the first round if talks to end hostilities that began on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli?attacks against Iran?. Reporting by Gram Slattery and Katharine Jackson; editing by Doina chiacu and Michelle Nichols
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Gold falls to a one-week-low due to tensions between the US and Iran and a stronger dollar
Gold prices dropped to a one week?low Monday, before recovering'slightly' as Iran threatened retaliation for the U.S. taking over of an Iranian cargo ship. This drove up oil and dollar prices. As of 9:23 am EDT (1323 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.5%, at $4,804.44 an ounce. It had earlier hit its lowest price in the session since April 13. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery?fell by 1.1% to $4824.60. As renewed tensions between the United States and Iran caused market uncertainty about the likelihood of a peaceful settlement, the U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in a week. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields increased, increasing the cost of non-yielding gold. Risk CEASEFIRE WILL Not Hold Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that the situation in the Middle East had clearly intensified. Our gold forecast has been shifted slightly to the downside due to the increased risk of another sharp spike in crude oil prices. This could lead a rise in dollar and bond yields. The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. appeared to be in danger on Monday following the seizure of the cargo vessel. Prices of oil rose by around 5% as a result of fears that the ceasefire might collapse and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz was largely blocked. Gold is a good inflation hedge. However, the demand for this non-yielding investment tends to decrease when global interest rates rise. Rates could stay higher for longer due to a rise in inflation caused by the Middle East war. "Gold traders are selecting the daily bearish elements (higher dollars, yields) for the metals on this day. Technically, the next price target for June gold futures bulls is to close above a solid resistance level of $5,000", Jim Wyckoff said in a report. Silver spot fell by 1.4%, to $79.68 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.7%, to $2,068.29. Palladium, which had hit a low of the week earlier, was down by 0.9%, at $1,544.90. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Barbara Lewis and Ishaan arora in Bengaluru)
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Brazil reports that Germany will contribute 500 million Euros to the Climate Fund
Brazil's President told a Monday press conference that Germany would 'contribute' 500 million euros (588.30 millions) to a 'climate fund' managed by Brazil's'state development 'bank BNDES. The fund will support projects and studies aimed at mitigating climate changes. Luiz inacio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president who is concluding a two-day trip to Germany on Tuesday, has said that Brazil is willing to discuss alternate energy sources with Germany, and he's "an unwavering supporter" of biofuels. Lula said that Germany would benefit from Brazil’s expertise in renewable energy and that officials of both countries will work to implement Monday’s decisions, without giving further details. The use of biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be done while utilizing the existing fuel infrastructure. Blending biodiesel with conventional diesel in fuel sold at gas stations may also lower costs by reducing dependence on fuel imports. Lula, Brazil's president, visited Hanover, Germany, where he showcased a brand new 'biofuel'.
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The Russian central bank sold 0.7 millions ounces gold in 2026
Data released on Monday showed that the Russian central bank had?sold about 0.7 million troy-ounces of gold so far this year. As of the beginning of April, Russia's gold reserve stood at 74.1 million?troy-ounces. This is compared to 74.8 millions at the beginning of the year. Gold holdings of the central bank are now valued at $334 billion. This is down from last month's $384 billion but up from $325 in January. Gold purchases by central banks around the world were a major factor in last year's price increase. In November 2025, the Russian central bank began selling gold on 'the market' as part of its operations for the National Wealth Fund fiscal reserve. The Russian central bank said that at the time it was diversifying its reserves because the rise in gold prices had led to a higher proportion of the reserve. The bank said it also took advantage of the increased liquidity in the domestic market. The Russian central banks' gold?sales are in stark contrast to the continued purchases of gold by China and Brazil's central banks this year. The central bank is no longer able to buy or sell dollars and euros due to Western sanctions. Gold and Chinese Yuan are now its most liquid assets. Gold suffered its steepest monthly drop since October 2008 last month due to inflation fears, expectations of higher interest rate and the war in Iran. (Written by Gleb Brynski; edited by Kevin Liffey).
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Mexico looks to early trade agreement on steel, aluminium, and autos before USMCA
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday that Mexico is interested in reaching an agreement, before completing the review the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Pact, concerning the exchange of automobiles, steel and aluminum. Sheinbaum addressed a press conference in the morning as U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer visited Mexico for talks. Sheinbaum stated that "we care about steel, aluminum and automobiles." "We hope a preliminary agreement can be reached." Mexico exports mostly vehicles and auto parts as well as machines and mechanical equipment to the United States. The USMCA Review talks this year are 'critical' for Mexico. It has been spared from the heaviest tariffs by the United States because the majority of its exports have been protected under the North American Trade Pact. The U.S. has suggested that it will tighten its origin rules to prevent goods,?especially from China?from passing through Mexico to?enter the U.S. duty-free.
Is it time for us to give up on the hope that the Strait of Hormuz might open soon? Russell
The global oil market has been predicting that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for a short time, and the disruption of crude and refined product supply will also be brief. This expectation is reflected in the price of crude oil futures. Although they have increased sharply since February 28, the prices are still far below the highs achieved in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The paper crude market, in effect, has believed U.S. president Donald Trump's social media posts that have been made since the bombing began, that the?conflict?will be over soon and Iran will accept U.S. conditions for a peace agreement.
The reality is not what's being said on social media, and the more the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the worse the energy crisis becomes, particularly in Asia. Brent crude futures dropped 9.1% to $90.38 per barrel on April 17, following Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. They jumped 6.9% to $96.59 in the early Asian trading on Monday when it became apparent that the waterway remained closed. Trump's April 17 social media post that the Strait of Hormuz was "fully opened and ready for passage" prompted the latest optimism. The waterway, which carried up to?20% of world crude oil and refined products prior to the conflict, had been "fully open and fully prepared for full transit." Trump's claim was backed even by some Iranian officials. However, the optimism was short-lived, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran moved to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed due to Trump's decision.
The market should ask itself several questions about the current state of affairs.
What does this mean? Does it mean that the United States has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz?
Would it reopen if Trump lifted the blockade on Iranian ports?
Is there enough trust between warring parties for them to accept the principle that the Strait of Hormuz should be open to everyone? Are the Iranians willing to negotiate with an administration which has a history of reneging on agreements and is in charge in Iran? These are all valid points of debate. However, what really matters is the fact that the strait remains closed and that the threat of an attack will likely keep it so for the hundreds vessels that wait on either side.
SUPPLY STRESS During this time, the supply chains for crude oil and refined products are more stressed. This is especially true in Asia which was the final destination of about 80% of the shipments that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict.
The crude futures market has largely been driven by the daily news and the underlying belief that the conflict would be short-lived. However, the physical oil and refinery products have shown a more serious supply issue in the near term. Singapore, the Asian trading center, has seen extreme levels of refined products. Jet fuel is also at an all-time high.
Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended the day at $145.27 per barrel on April 17. This is up 59% from when the conflict began, but down from the $199.89 record set on March 30. The worst is yet to come for Asia, with crude oil shipments in the region falling sharply.
According to Kpler, data from commodity analysts, Asia's seaborne oil imports were estimated at 20,62 million barrels a day (bpd), down from 22,36 million bpd a month earlier.
Both March and April were well below the average of 26.76 millions bpd for the three months prior to the attack on Iran.
This is a particularly worrying situation for countries which are important refining and fuel exporters to the region.
Singapore's crude oil imports will be 388,000?bpd this April, down from 715 bpd last?March and 988,000 bpd the previous month.
South Korea's crude oil imports were estimated at 1,68 million barrels per day (bpd) in April. This is down from 2,24 million in March and 2,74 million in January.
Japan's imports in April are expected to drop to 921,000 bpd from 1.63m bpd and 2.16m bpd respectively in March.
India is the only country that has bucked this trend. Kpler estimates April imports at 4,67 million bpd. This is up from March's 4.45 million, but still below January's 5,15 million. India was able to secure Russian crude oil to offset the loss in barrels from the Middle East. 1.64 million bpd arrived in April, an increase from 1.06 millions bpd.
The problem with Asia's crude oil is that it's under pressure. It's likely that the processing rate of refineries will need to be reduced in the coming weeks.
The real impact of Trump's war will only be felt when supply of refined products is more restricted. How long can the crude oil paper market maintain its hope that the conflict is going to end soon when reality appears to be moving in the opposite direction?
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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)