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The wrong kind of 'boom to start the week'
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets After a long holiday weekend in the United States, and other countries, markets were ready to celebrate signs that a peace plan with Iran was close to agreement. World crude prices fell nearly 7% on Monday, to below $100 a barrel. According to reports, the peace plan being discussed would include a 60-day extension of ceasefire and an eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The news of the latest U.S. strikes against Iranian targets overnight exacerbated doubts about how quickly a final document could be agreed. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. Wrong kind of 'boom' to start the week news? Fresh U.S. strike on Tuesday described as defensive by Washington saw oil reverse some losses from the previous day, with Brent crude increasing about?3%, but remaining below $100 a barrel. Stocks were mixed with European shares wobbly, and Wall Street futures showing a positive trend. This came after Monday's rally, which saw European?shares soar and Japan's Nikkei reach a new record high. Markets seem to believe that a deal will be reached soon, despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump added a condition that regional countries normalize their relations with Israel. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, also warned that negotiations with Iran might "take a couple days". Tuesday may not be as booming a start to the week that many expected. The day's economic data will be dominated by the U.S. Consumer Confidence readings for the month of May. The report will be closely monitored, given that the University of Michigan equivalent survey has reached a new low. The rest of the week will be dominated by inflation updates. As long as gas prices are high, the news won't be calming for the rates markets. Christopher Waller, a former dovish Federal Reserve Board member, said on Friday that he would join other policymakers in voting to remove language in the Fed's most recent policy statement which indicated an apparent "easing" bias. At the swearing-in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday, Trump took a more ambiguous stance on Fed policy. He said Warsh was free to make whatever decision he thought best. Fed futures price in 'at least one rate increase over the next 12 months, and central banks from the euro zone and Japan will likely raise rates as early as next month. Chart of the Day The chipmaker stock frenzy has been boosted in China after tech giant Huawei Technologies announced that it will produce industry-leading semiconductors with a new technology within five years. This news highlights Beijing's efforts in neutralizing U.S. restrictions that made it difficult for China to manufacture cutting-edge semiconductors. As HK markets reopened on Tuesday after a long holiday, an?index tracking Hong Kong listed chipmakers surged 6%. This was led by Hua Hong Semiconductor & Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. Watch today's events * U.S. consumer confidence in May (10 a.m.?EDT). * U.S. 2-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT) Want to receive the "Morning bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is a non-partisan organization that adheres to the Trust Principles and values integrity, independence, freedom from bias, and impartiality.
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Aluminium prices rise to their highest level in over four years due to supply concerns
Aluminum prices reached their highest level in over four years on Tuesday as rising feedstock prices, alumina,?added?to persistent concerns?about a tightening?market amid a?reduced supply from Gulf producers. The London Metal Exchange's three-month aluminium rose by 1.4%, to $3,698.50 at 0937 GMT, after reaching $3,707.5. This is the highest level since March 24, 2020. On March 7, 2022 the metal reached a record high of $4.073.5, as markets grappled with the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion in Ukraine. A 5% increase in September alumina contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which rose to their highest level since early May due to concerns about supplies of bauxite raw material from Guinea, supported aluminium prices on Tuesday. Guinea, which is the top bauxite-producing country in the world, has been considering the introduction of export quotas to mining companies, as shipping costs are on the rise, and reducing the revenue for the country. Bloomberg News cited an official as saying that Guinea expects to finalise its new policy by June. The LME Aluminium Cash Contract premium is still higher than the benchmark due to the reduced supply of aluminium from the Gulf producers during the Iran War. Last week, the price of a tonne was $71, indicating a shortage in supply. Analysts at Citi stated in a report last week that the Middle East conflict had triggered the biggest aluminium supply shock for at least 50 years. This has led to accelerated inventory?drawdowns this year of approximately 3 million tons from historically low levels, and prompted strong futures purchases. Copper fell 0.3% in other?LME Metals to $13,617.50 per ton. According to a?body, the global?refined market had a surplus in January-March of 396,000 tonnes. Zinc increased 1.3% to $3.588.50. Lead gained 0.5% to $2.020. Tin added 0.7% at $54,570. Nickel lost 1.1% at $18,695. In the earlier session, LME zinc, copper and tin reached their highest levels since mid-May. Lead also touched its highest level since late January. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Polina Devitt)
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What's the deal with talks to end Iran war?
LONDON/DUBAI - U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran would "take a few more days." This dimmed hopes for a quick?end to this conflict, after the U.S. launched what they called defensive strikes in the south of Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated earlier that many of the topics covered in a possible 14-point memorandum were concluded, but it did not mean an agreement to end the war was imminent. WHAT STAGE ARE THE DISCUSSIONS AT? After a ceasefire early in April, both sides remain 'at odds' on difficult issues, including Iran's nuke ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon against the Hezbollah militia, and Tehran's demand for the lifting sanctions and release of frozen assets. Both sides claim that after weeks of mostly indirect talks they have reached an agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding which would stop the war. The document would also give negotiators a 60-day window to come up with a final settlement. According to Esmaeil baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, the framework is centered on a halt to the war, and a U.S. navy blockade in exchange for Tehran to take steps to ensure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz. According to ISNA, senior Iranian diplomat Hossein Nooshabadi said that the framework agreement could include the ending of wars on all fronts, including Lebanon, release of Iranian assets blocked by the U.S., lifting of U.S. Naval Blockade, opening of Strait of Hormuz and withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Iran's vicinity. Nooshabadi stated that the draft agreement for Iran contained no commitments regarding its nuclear programme. An anonymous senior official in the Trump administration said that Iran agreed "in principle", to open the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and the disposal of Tehran's highly-enriched uranium. Iranian sources stated that a framework deal is about ending the conflict on all fronts and establishing a 30 day framework for shipping and movement through Hormuz. It may also provide some financial relief. Then,?negotiations would be held on more complex issues such as Iran's status with highly enriched Uranium, the details of the Strait and the order in which the various points included in the initial deal, like sanctions relief and security, are addressed. HOW COULD A DEAL MOVE FORWARD? The memorandum will be sent for final approval to the supreme leader of the country if the Supreme National Security Council of Iran approves it. According to the senior U.S. government official, the U.S. believed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had approved the general template of the agreement. Baghaei, Nooshabadi, and others said that if the first phase of agreement went well, then the nuclear issue would be reviewed and discussed during the 60 day period. Negotiations between teams of experts took many years to reach the last nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015 but subsequently revoked by Donald Trump. What are the main issues? HORMUZ AND GULF BLOCKADE - Tehran views its control of Hormuz as its main leverage, while Washington sees Washington's blockade against Iranian ports. The United States believe Iran is trying to build a nuke bomb. Iran has always denied this and said that its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes. Focus is on Iran's enrichment of Uranium which can be used to generate fuel for nuclear power, but also material for warheads. A long-term moratorium on the enrichment of uranium and exports or dilutions of the stockpile may be included in a?agreement. The nuclear issue is very complex. Iranian sources claim that Iran may agree to have a part of its highly-enriched uranium converted to uranium with a purity of 5% in a friendly nation and then return it to Iran. There are still many issues to resolve: the length of the halting of the nuclear program, the dismantling of nuclear sites, the fate of the stockpiles enriched at 20% and 5% and the future of Iran’s advanced centrifuges, research and development programs and other matters. BALLISTIC MISSILES – A major U.S. request before the 'war' was that Iran limit its ballistic missile range so that they couldn’t reach Israel. Iran has never discussed its ballistic missiles. It has said that its conventional weapons are not on the table, and it has a large arsenal. Iran's economy was hurt by sanctions over the years and this contributed to the unrest across the country in January. Tehran desperately needs the sanctions lifted, and for tens billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue frozen abroad to be released. The Iranian government also wants compensation for war damages.
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What is involved in the talks to end Iran's war?
LONDON/DUBAI - U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio warned on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran could "take several days." This was after the U.S. launched what they called 'defensive strikes' in southern Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated earlier that many of the topics covered in a possible 14-point memorandum were concluded, but this does not mean an agreement to end the war will be reached anytime soon. What is the current stage of the discussions? After a "ceasefire" in early April, both sides remain at odds over difficult issues, including Iran's nuke ambitions, Israel’s war with the Hezbollah militia, which is backed by Iran, and Tehran's demand for the lifting sanctions and release of frozen assets. Both sides claim that after weeks of mostly indirect talks they have reached an agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding which would stop the war. The document would also give negotiators a 60-day window to come up with a final settlement. According to Esmaeil baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, the framework focuses on a halt to the war, a U.S. navy blockade in exchange for Tehran ensuring safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Hossein Nooshabadi, a senior Iranian diplomat, told ISNA that a possible framework agreement included ending the war in all areas, including Lebanon, releasing blocked Iranian assets, lifting the U.S. Naval Blockade, opening the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from the vicinity of Iran. Nooshabadi stated that the draft agreement for Iran contained no commitments?on its nuclear programme. An anonymous senior official from the Trump administration said that Iran has agreed in principle to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and the disposal of Tehran's highly-enriched uranium. Iranian sources stated that a framework agreement is aimed at ending the war across all fronts and establishing a 30-day frame for shipping and movement through Hormuz, as well as possibly providing financial relief. Then, the difficult issues, like the status of Iran's highly-enriched uranium, the details of the Strait and the sequencing of many of the points that were mentioned in the initial deal, like sanctions relief and security, would be discussed. HOW COULD A DEAL MOVE FORWARD? The memorandum will be sent for final approval to the supreme leader of the country if the Supreme National Security Council of Iran approves it. According to the senior U.S. government official, the U.S. believed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had approved the general template of the agreement. Baghaei, Nooshabadi, and others said that if the first phase of agreement went well, then the nuclear issue would be reviewed and discussed during the 60 day period. Negotiations between teams of experts took many years to reach the last nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015 but subsequently ripped up by Donald Trump. What are the main issues? HORMUZ AND GULF BLOCKADE - Tehran views its control of Hormuz as its main leverage, while Washington sees Washington's blockade against Iranian ports. The United States believe Iran is trying to build a nuke bomb. Iran has always denied that, saying it only uses its atomic program for peaceful purposes. Focus is on Iran's enrichment of Uranium which can be used to make fuel for nuclear power but also material for a "warhead". A long-term moratorium on the enrichment of uranium and exports or dilutions of the stockpile may be included in an agreement. The nuclear issue is very complex. Iranian sources claim that Iran may agree to have a part of its highly-enriched uranium dilute in a friendly nation to uranium "enriched to 5% purity" and then return it. There are still many issues to resolve: the length of the nuclear program's halt, the dismantling of nuclear sites, the fate of the stockpiles enriched at 20% and 5% and the future of Iran’s advanced centrifuges, research and development programs and more. BALLISTIC MISSILES – A major U.S. request before the?war was that Iran limit its range of ballistic?missiles to ensure that they couldn't reach Israel. Iran has never discussed its ballistic missiles. It has said that conventional weapons are not on the table, and it has a large arsenal. Iran's economy was hurt by sanctions over the years and this contributed to the unrest across the country in January. Tehran desperately needs the sanctions lifted, and for tens billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue frozen abroad to be released. The Iranian government also wants compensation for war damages.
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Copper prices fall as new US attacks on Iran weigh down on sentiment
The copper price fell a little bit on Tuesday due to higher oil prices. This was mainly because the latest U.S. strike against Iran dampened expectations of a resolution in the Middle East conflict. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.2% to $13,637.50 per metric tonne by 0746 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.4%, to 104960 yuan (15,447.22) per ton. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary?of?State, said that negotiating an agreement with Iran would "take a few days." This statement quashed hopes of a quick end to this conflict. The strikes occurred as Iran's top negotiator, its foreign minister and the country's top diplomat were in Doha to discuss a possible deal with Qatar's Prime Minister?to end the war that has lasted three months. Brent crude oil prices increased after the U.S. war. Metals prices are expected to decline due to higher energy costs. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that base metals would likely remain range bound and sensitive to headlines for the foreseeable future. If a peace agreement is reached that?significantly? lowers oil prices and drags down the dollar with it, this would ease inflation fears and boost the?attractiveness of base metals. Lead was up by 0.4% and nickel fell 1.3%. Aluminium, lead, nickel, and tin all saw increases of 0.7%. Zinc rose 1.2%.
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London copper stable as new US strikes on Iran weigh down on sentiment
London copper prices remained steady on Tuesday, as a weaker dollar was countered by higher oil costs after the latest U.S. strikes against?Iran shattered hopes of a resolution to the Middle East Conflict. This fueled concerns about the global economy outlook. By 0536 GMT, the London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was unchanged at $13,671 per metric ton. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.4% to 104,990 Yuan ($15.451.64) per tonne. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran would "take a few day," dispelling hopes of an imminent end to the conflict. This comes a day after U.S. troops conducted what Washington referred to as defensive strikes in southern Iran. The strikes came as Iran's foreign minister and top negotiator were in Doha to discuss a possible deal with the U.S. Brent crude oil prices increased after the U.S. war. Metals prices are expected to decline due to higher energy costs. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that metals will likely remain range bound and sensitive to headlines over the next few months. If a deal is reached that lowers oil prices and the dollar, it will ease inflation fears and boost base metals' appeal. Lead was up 0.3% on the 'LME. Nickel lost 1.2%. Tin climbed 1.8%. Aluminium, among other SHFE?metals, ticked up 0.5%, while zinc rose 1.1%, and lead dropped 0.2%. Nickel lost 1.2%, and tin gained 0.9%.
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Russell: China's structural shift is reflected in its weak steel production and strong imports of iron ore.
The disparity between China's low steel production and its robust imports of?iron ore is still evident, but it is now starting to appear as a structural shift instead of a temporary dislocation. China, which accounts for just over half the world's total steel production, produced 86.63 metric tons of steel in April. This is a 2.8% drop from the same period in 2025 and the lowest April figure since 2018. Steel production for the first four months of the year was 331.12 millions tons, down 4.1% from last year's same period. According to official statistics, however, iron ore exports increased by 8% during the first four month of the year, to 418,6 million tonnes. Imports of steel-related raw materials in April were 103.9 millions tons. This is down 0.8% compared to March's total of 104.74, but slightly higher per day due to April having one less day than March. Analysts at DBX Commodities estimate that May seaborne arrivals will be 104.67 millions tons. The lackluster steel production can be explained by the continuing weakness in the property construction sector and the decline in exports. In April, shipments dropped 9% from the same month last year. Steel exports fell 9.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 34.2 millions tons. Iron ore imports are a result of both structural and temporary factors. Inventories are built SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles to ensure that they are not contaminated. Holding near record highs The week ending May 22 saw inventories at 160.35 millions tons, up slightly from the previous week's 160.34 and close to the record of 165.67 that was reached the week before. As steel production increases to meet the construction demand, inventories tend to build towards the end of each year. They then peak early in the following year and decline toward the middle. Stockpiles are up 22% since the July low of 131.05 millions tons, which was 2025's lowest level. Market participants will be able to tell whether inventories will follow their usual seasonal pattern, and begin to decline as we approach the northern summer. Or if soft steel production will continue to keep them high compared with previous years. It is possible that the Iran war, and the threat of fuel shortages in Asia due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian government may have also encouraged Chinese steel mills to import more ore. The lack of volatility may also be a factor in the rise in imports. Singapore Exchange contracts have been locked in a narrow range around $105 per ton over the last 10 months. On Monday, the front-month contract closed at $109.09. Iron ore imports are driven by a decline in China's domestic production of iron ore, which is further exacerbated due to deteriorating ore grades. This means that the same amount of ore will yield less iron. According to MySteel, China's first four months iron ore production was 326.8 millions tons, a 1% decrease from the same period in 2013. The drop in 2024 was 2.8% to 1.04 billion tons. China's iron ore is a mixture of 20-30% iron. This means that it must be upgraded in order to match the imported grades, which are 60-65%. The process?is energy-intensive and costly. Imports are likely to increase, as China's domestic iron ore continues to decline. This is assuming that steel production remains relatively stable. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Peace talks hit turbulence
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Oil prices climbed Tuesday after U.S. forces conducted what they called defensive'strikes' in southern Iran, just as investors were becoming more hopeful about a peace agreement?between the two nations. The strikes occurred as Iran's chief negotiator, its foreign minister and the Qatari prime minister met in Doha for talks on Monday about a possible deal with the U.S. that would end the war of three months. Washington and Tehran played down the hopes of an imminent breakthrough. This kept the optimism down, as the dollar gained some of its appeal as a safe-haven currency while stocks were mixed. Investors hope for a peace deal that will end the conflict, with a focus on the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei, a Japanese newspaper, reported that the U.S. is in talks with Iran about?opening the waterway 30 days after both countries have reached a deal to end hostilities. Details are still scarce. Energy prices will likely remain high until then. This puts pressure on policymakers and businesses, as well as everyday consumers, when inflation increases. The central bank of Sri Lanka surprised the markets by increasing its benchmark policy rate 100 basis points in an attempt to'stem inflation and pressure on the currency. Ryozo Himino, Deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, said that the Bank's timing of rate hikes will be affected by developments in the Middle East. Investors now expect a 25-basis point rate increase from the Federal Reserve in December. This is a dramatic change from the two rate cuts that were priced into the market at the beginning of the year. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to tighten policy. The Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence Index will be released later today, Tuesday. In May, the index is likely to fall by eight-tenths a point and reach 92. The higher gasoline prices caused by the Iran War will continue to be a concern for consumers. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. U.S. Consumer Confidence (May)
Oil prices rise as US strikes Iran, causing European stocks to fall
The European stock market indexes fluctuated on Tuesday. They retreated?slightly? from recent gains and oil prices rose after the U.S. launched new strikes in southern Iran, which?diminished investors' hopes that a U.S./Iran peace agreement could be imminent. The market sentiment has improved over the last week as traders have bet that the U.S. and Israel war against Iran will de-escalate. This conflict, which began in late-February, has caused severe disruptions in Middle East oil supplies. On Tuesday, traders revised their view after the U.S. announced on Monday that they had conducted what they called defensive strikes in south Iran. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran may "take a couple of days" as?talks are ongoing.
At 843 GMT the STOXX 600 was down 0.2% for the day but close to its highest level since the beginning of the war. London's FTSE 100 rose 0.7%, while Germany's DAX - which was down 0.7% - fell 0.7%. The MSCI World Equity Index was flat but up 3.8% this month.
Peter Schaffrik is a global macro strategist with RBC Capital Markets. He said the uncertainty in the Middle East was weighing heavily on markets. He said that the markets were impacted by the uncertainty in the Middle East. Brent Crude futures rose 3.6% to $99.64 per barrel on the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 3.7% since Friday's closing price, to $93.09. Due to the U.S. Memorial Day Holiday, there was no WTI settlement Monday.
There was still some optimism, said Schaffrik, as traders held onto the hope that traffic would soon be allowed to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is down from its peak of $120 in late April. European traders also considered 'comments made by European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel. She said that the central banks should raise interest rates in June even if ongoing peace talks with Iran result in a deal. The conflict has lasted much longer than expected and high energy costs are affecting the wider economy. Money market traders have priced in a?90% chance of a rate hike at the ECB meeting in June. The yields on European bonds rose after the U.S. The benchmark 10-year German bond yield is still near its lowest level in nearly seven weeks at 2.9792%. Last week, yields fell as investors became less worried about the impact of war on inflation and economic growth. U.S. government bonds rose as investors remained hopeful of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The dollar index was unchanged at 99.081, and the euro dropped less than 0.1% to $1.1636 on the same day. The dollar rose 0.2% versus the Japanese yen to 159.22. Gold fell around 1.1% to $4,522.5. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Muralikumar Aantharaman and Sharon Singleton).
(source: Reuters)