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Global stocks hold gains after in-line US CPI
The?global stock market held onto its gains on Wednesday, after U.S. data on inflation came in as expected. Oil?prices also edged up after a senior Iranian official said that there had been no talks with Washington about extending the ceasefire. According to a survey of economists, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The annual CPI inflation rate slowed from 3.5% to 3.4% a month ago. Richard Carter, Head of Fixed Interest Research at Quilter-Cheviot, said that "the market should react positively to the latest inflation figures, given Kevin Warsh's unwillingness to provide much or any forward guidance." Following the data, traders stuck to their bets which narrowly favoured an interest rate halt at next month's meeting. Markets give about a 50% chance that the Fed keeps its policy rate within the current range of 3.50%-3.75 %. U.S. Stock Futures,?the S&P500 e-minis were up 0.4% and held onto gains following the data. Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.8% after CoreWeave, a cloud AI company, announced positive results following Tuesday's closing. The STOXX 600, which is the pan-European index, was up 0.2% in Europe. Frankfurt, Paris, and London's major stock indexes were all up between?0.1% and 0.4%. Stocks in Asia rose by?0.9%. The gains were led by the South Korean Kospi's 3.7% rise and a nearly 1% increase in Japanese and Taiwanese shares as chipmakers rose. Talks to End the Iran War Continue Markets are still watching negotiations to end Iran's war and open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. According to a senior Iranian source, there are no talks between Iran and the U.S. about extending their ceasefire, because from Tehran's point of view, the deal has no start date, and there is nothing to extend. The update came after attacks on ships in the Middle East Tuesday. Both Iran and the U.S. also have increased their rhetoric over the past few days. Investors are calm despite the lack of progress. Stocks around the world are close to records highs. "Our base-case for a very long time was a gradual, but messy deescalation," stated?Dorian Carrell. He is the head of Schroders'?multi-asset-income. We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor under the oil prices and keeps the markets fueled by energy inflation in the short-to-medium-term. U.S. crude oil rose 0.7% to $83.71 per barrel while Brent rose 0.3% to $89.19 per barrel, both set to extend their five-day streak of positive performance. The benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest since July 31, and extended gains after?jumping 5% on Sunday. The?dollar index fell to 99.69. Both the euro and sterling?ticked-up after the U.S. Inflation data. The yen rose 0.3% to 158.81 dollars, but was still below the highs of last week of 155.20 following several suspected rounds. Spot gold increased by 1.4%, to $4,428 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2.9%, to $66.47 per ounce. Reporting by Samuel Indyk from London and Rocky Swift from Tokyo. Barbara Lewis and Mark Potter edited the article.
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Azerbaijani President says that his country can supply electricity to Armenia
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said that his country could provide 'electricity' to Armenia. He added that Yerevan would not be able to?extend?the?life?of the Metsamor nuclear plant, which is old and inefficient. The Armenian government has not yet commented on Aliyev’s proposal, or whether Yerevan will consider importing power?from Azerbaijan. After decades of conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving toward a 'normalisation of relations'. This opens the door to new transport and energy links. Armenia, which has been heavily reliant on energy from?Russia and Iran, is now reviewing proposals by U.S. companies, Russian, Chinese and South Korean firms to build a new reactor to replace the Soviet era Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant. Aliyev stated in an interview to 'Azerbaijani State Television' that Azerbaijani experts had conducted preliminary surveys on Armenian territory and identified possible locations for electric transmission pylons as part of a plan connecting Azerbaijan’s power grid with the Nakhchivan Exclave through 'Armenia. Aliyev stated that "Armenia's primary energy source today is a nuclear plant." "If the nuclear power plant is shut down, Armenia could be facing a major energy crisis," Aliyev said, adding that a second source of electricity was in Yerevan’s best interest. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn)
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Health Rounds - According to a study, wildfires are the main source of air pollution in U.S. pregnancy.
We also share a report by cardiologists suggesting that you may (or may not) want check your waist and hip measurement, as well as a lab?study that has some encouraging news regarding brain tumor treatments. WILDFIRES ARE THE MAIN CAUSE OF US AIR POLUTION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY Researchers?say that wildfires are the main source of air pollution harmful to pregnant women in the United States. The study examined 64.5 million pregnancies between 2003 and 2019 in 48 states, analyzing the "neighborhood" exposure to tiny airborne particles of 2.5 micrometers in diameter or less that penetrate deep into the lungs. Vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions and wildfires are the main sources of PM2.5 pollution. The amount of smoke from wildfires has more than doubled since 2003, and the exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy has decreased significantly. Researchers reported in Frontiers in Environmental Health that by 2019, wildfire smoke would be the leading contributor to high pollution days during pregnancy in the United States. In 2019, wildfire air pollution was responsible for approximately 65% "exceedance" days -- when PM2.5 levels exceeded 35 micrograms per cubic meter. Researchers have noted that wildfire smoke can cause adverse outcomes for babies. Researchers cannot speak directly to what is happening in Europe where record heatwaves are contributing to some the worst wildfires on the continent in history. According to Michel Boudreaux, senior author of the study from the University of Maryland, wildfire smoke, and other air pollutants, are responsible for adverse birth outcomes in the U.S. as well as Europe. While individuals can take steps to reduce their exposure to toxins (air filtering, masking), communities and governments need to play a more active role. They should ensure that the public has access to air-purifying shelters and that schools, homes and workplaces have adequate air filters. ABDOMINAL FIBRO PREDICTS HEART DISEASE RISK EVEN BETTER THAN BMI Researchers say that the size of someone's midsection can be a better indicator of risk for heart disease than their body mass index. BMI is a weight-to-height ratio that has been used to diagnose obesity and overweight, which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Studies have shown, however, that visceral fat around abdominal organs is associated with chronic diseases such as heart disease and diabetes more than subcutaneous fat directly beneath the skin. Researchers reported in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology that BMI doesn't account for the distribution of body fat, and that not accounting for waist circumference (or waist-to hip ratio) can lead to a misclassification of cardiovascular risk. In a press release, Dr. Michael Blaha from Johns Hopkins University stated that individuals with normal weight but elevated central adiposity or a high waist-to hip ratio -- which means their waist was larger than their hips -- were at higher risk for most outcomes. The team analyzed data from over 260,000 people collected in the last 20 years. Individuals with normal or overweight weight who have a high waist circumference, and a high waist-to hip ratio are at heightened risk of fatal and non-fatal strokes and heart disease. Obesity and low waist circumference were associated with similar outcomes as those with normal weight and low circumference. The study was not conducted by Dr. Harlan Krumholz. He is the editor-in chief of the journal. Krumholz stated in a press release that "this enormously important study based on data collected from hundreds of thousands of participants participating in large-scale cohorts" shows conclusively that waist circumference, and the waist-to hip ratio, provide crucial information about cardiovascular risks. These simple measures are part of a routine cardiovascular risk assessment. Researchers find brain-tumor vulnerability Studies in mice indicate that after surgery for incurable brain tumors, drugs are able to cross the protective barrier of the brain and reach cancer cells likely to cause recurrence. The surgery to remove a Glioblastoma is usually performed within days of the diagnosis. Chemotherapy and radiation are then administered four to six week later. The delay allows some cancer cells to continue growing. The residual cancer cells are only marginally eliminated by chemotherapy, and the tumors return. Researchers found that the blood-brain barriers were disrupted in the immediate hours following surgery and then again 48 to 72 hours later. According to a report in Science Translational Medicine, during these periods, nanoparticles containing drugs may accumulate at the resection margin. This is where tumors most often recur. The delivery of nanoparticles with the chemotherapy agent, doxorubicin, was increased during peak periods of blood-brain barriers disruption postoperatively. This inhibited tumor recurrence. In a press release, Dr. Thomas Kisby of University of Manchester (UK) said that the glioblastoma surgical procedure exposes a short-term vulnerability which we can exploit. If treatment is given during the specific window we identified, this can stop the disease before it grows back.
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India's Grasim Industries has a strong first-quarter performance as its core business improves
Grasim Industries, a company based in India, reported a'standalone profit' in the first three months of this year. This was due to a'strong performance in its fibre business which provides materials for textiles and apparel, as well as fewer losses in newer ventures. Aditya Birla Group's flagship company reported a standalone net profit of 632.2 million rupees (about $6.33 million) in the quarter ended June 30. This compares to a loss?of 1.18 million rupees one year ago. Grasim’s fibre business reported a 12% % increase in revenue year-on-year. Analysts expected a'sharp improvement' in Grasim’s quarterly earnings as higher prices boosted its fibre business, while losses at its paints business and business-to business e-commerce ventures narrowed. ICICI Securities forecast Grasim’s operating?profit to roughly double from a previous year, while Antique Stock Broking predicted a 77% increase. Grasim’s Birla Opus Paints?business grew revenue by 64% to 16.61 billion rupees as the company expanded in a'market that was previously dominated by Asian Paints and Berger Paints. Grasim’s standalone?revenues from operations increased?27.8% in the third quarter to 117.95?rupees.
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Aluminium's rally of seven sessions ends as EGA confirms timeline for smelter recovery
Aluminium prices ended a seven session rally on Wednesday, after Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), a major producer of the metal, reaffirmed that it will resume full-scale production in its war-damaged plant?in 2027's first quarter. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the?London Metal Exchange fell 0.65% to $3,342 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. The rally began on August 3 and has since risen 4.7%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract was 0.43% more expensive at 24,285 Yuan ($3,600.18). It reached 24,470 yuan per ton earlier in the session, its highest level in nearly 10 weeks. EGA's Al Taweelah Smelter in Abu Dhabi suffered damage after?strikes by Iran in March. This forced an emergency shut down. In its earnings report for the first six months of the year, EGA said that the facility will reach its pre-incident production levels?in the first three quarters of 2027. This is in line with the announcement made by the company in July. The Middle East's disruption of aluminium production, which represents 9% of global smelting capacities, is expected to lead to a supply deficit in 2018. Stocks of light metals in LME registered warehouses The?levels of the last century are now at their lowest. Copper prices also rose as the temporary closure of the Smelting Gresik plant in Indonesia increased the pressure on the global supply of red metal. The red metal rose 0.26% over the LME, and 0.4% over the SHFE. Copper prices have been supported by falling inventories and supply concerns. Stocks in LME have been boosted by outflows to the U.S., ahead of potential tariffs on imports. The lowest level since January Nickel ticked up?0.09% and tin?0.64%. The SHFE showed that zinc rose by 0.86%; lead gained 0.28%; nickel fell 0.23%; and tin increased 1.4%.
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CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation is less than expected but politics and drought clouds outlook
The annual inflation rate in Romania slowed down sharply, but not as much as analysts had expected. Data from the National Statistics Board on Wednesday showed that consumer price inflation dropped to 8.16% in July from 10.42% in june. Analysts expected that the annual rate would slow down to 7.9%. Prices increased by 0.58% compared to the previous month. Romanian electricity prices rose?as recently as July of last year, after the government's price-capping program expired. The drop on Wednesday reflects a fading?of the base effect. The impact of the increase in value-added tax is also expected to fade next month. Energy prices rose 'this year, after the beginning of the Iran War. This had a major impact on inflation. The drought-affected Danube River reached record-low levels, resulting in a sharp drop in power production and the need to import expensive goods to cover the deficit. The bank said that inflation will fall within the 1.5%-3.5% range at the end next year. This is a quarter earlier than originally anticipated. Thursday, the bank will release its new forecasts for this and next year. The outlook for the country's economic and inflationary prospects was clouded in May by the collapse, and subsequent failure, of a broad, pro-European government. The central bank is not expected to reduce interest rates until the first quarter of the next year, according to the analysts polled. In a research report, Erste Bank stated that the'main risks to our projection are derived from electricity prices, spillovers effects of severe droughts and volatile fuel prices globally. "We expect key rate flat at 6.50% until May 2027." (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Luiza Ilie)
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Oil prices rise before CPI, but European stocks remain stable
Oil prices rose after new attacks on Middle East shipping dimmed hopes for an end to the Iran War. Later in the day, markets focused their attention on U.S. inflation figures. Both the U.S., and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis, reported separate attacks against shipping. Meanwhile, both Iran and U.S. increased their rhetoric over recent days. Mohsenrezaei said that Iran's top official in security, Mohsen Rezaei stated on Tuesday, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. agrees to Iran's terms for ending the war. Energy prices are still high and the war is not ending, despite claims by U.S. president Donald Trump that a deal was imminent. This threatens global growth and inflation. U.S. crude climbed 0.8% to $83.89 per barrel while Brent climbed 0.7% to $99.49, putting them on track for their sixth consecutive daily gain. Both benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest close since July 31, and continuing gains after a 5% jump on Monday. Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor under the oil price, and keeps energy-driven inflation on the market in near-to-medium-term. Early European trade saw little change in the STOXX 600 pan-region index. The major stock indexes of Frankfurt, Paris, and London were all close to being unchanged. Stocks in Asia rose by 0.7%. The gains were led by the 3.7% rise in South Korea's Kospi, and an almost 1% increase in Japan and Taiwan, as chipmakers surged. U.S. futures for the S&P500 e-minis were up by 0.1% while Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.4% as CoreWeave, a cloud AI company, announced positive results after the market. CPI: Keep Your Eyes on It The markets remained focused later in the session on U.S. Consumer Prices data for any signals about a possible Federal Reserve rate increase. Money markets are showing a 50/50 chance that the Fed will raise interest rates at its meeting next month. According to a survey, consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.1% in July following a 0.4% drop in June. A poll predicts that the annual CPI inflation will slow from 3.5% to 3.4%, down from 3.5% one month ago. Carrell, Schroders' Carrell, said that the?CPI is expected to be?relatively soft today. This would set up a hold until midterms if all other things are equal. Financial Times reported that Fed Bank of Boston president Susan Collins would support a September rate increase if inflation remained high. The markets are pricing in a rate increase in Japan sooner than expected, which puts pressure on the country's short-dated bonds. The yield of the 5-year Japanese Government Bond rose to a record-high 2.12%. Meanwhile, the yield for the 2-year Japanese Government Bond reached a high of 1.645%, which is a new 31-year high. Investors are now pricing in a?chance? of almost 60% of a quarter point hike at Bank of Japan's meeting of September. The yen fell to 159.35 dollars, a slight decline from the high of last week of 155.20. This is after several suspected rounds or intervention. The dollar index (which measures a currency's value against a basket) rose by less than 0.1%, to 99.86. The euro and sterling remained relatively unchanged. Spot gold increased 1%, to $4,409 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2%, to $66.04 per ounce. (Reporting from Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift, both in London; editing by Edwina and Stephen Coates).
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Nigeria looks at crude supply reforms for Dangote and other refiners
The local oil refiners association reported that Nigeria was considering changes to its crude allocation rules and pricing to increase 'feedstock' access for its refiners. This includes Dangote Refinery. Dangote said previously that Nigeria's pricing structure added $3 to $4 per bar to feedstock costs because purchases were routed through trading arms of producers. Analysts claim that the pricing of domestic crude oil is more important than availability. This move could boost operations at Africa's largest?refinery of 650,000 barrels per day, Dangote, whose production has been at times constrained by the difficulty in securing enough crude supplies domestically. CORAN, the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said that these proposed changes will be discussed during this week's?regulator led review of Nigeria’s domestic crude supply obligations. This requires producers to?supply local refining facilities before exporting. CORAN spokesperson Eche Idoko said that under a 'proposal, a producer connected to an IOC network could deliver crude to a nearby refining facility, with the volumes being reconciled at the terminal. Second, refiners who lift crude directly from production sites would receive a discount that reflects the freight and handling cost embedded in Brent-linked prices but not actually incurred by them. Idoko said, "This could be win-win situation for both producers and refiners." The Nigerian 'Upstream Regulatory Commission' (NUPRC), released data on Monday that showed producer compliance with the domestic crude oil supply framework increased to more than 90% from less than 40% in the previous quarter. The metric is used to compare actual deliveries with the volumes allotted by regulators, and not refinery demands met. Producers must provide?allocated quantities to local refineries and agree on sales based on a "willing buyer, willing seller" basis. An official at the NUPRC said that the ideas were "on the table", largely due to the requests of refiners in the inland. However, he added that the implementation would require adjustments for crude quality and pricing. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Isaac Anyaogu)
Oil stocks rise globally, but US CPI remains stable
Oil prices and global equity markets increased after the talks to end Iran's war reached an impasse. The markets then turned to the U.S. inflation data later that day.
The?U.S. Consumer prices data will provide signals about the timing of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
The data may not reflect the latest rise in oil price, but it can still be used to set expectations for next month's Fed meeting when the money markets predict a roughly 50/50 chance of an increase. According to a survey, consumer prices are predicted to rise by 0.1% in the month of July after dropping 0.4% in June. The CPI is expected to fall to 3.4% in July from 3.5% one month earlier.
Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. He said, "We think the market?s read on inflation, interest rates and monetary conditions seems to be driving the markets at the moment."
He added, "The?CPI is expected to be relatively soft today. This would set up a hold for the midterms if all other things are equal."
The pan-continental STOXX 600 rose 0.2% late in the European morning. The major stock indexes of Frankfurt, Paris, and London rose between 0.1% and 0.4%.
Stocks in Asia rose by 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi rose 3.7%, while Japan and Taiwan saw a sharp rise of almost 1%. Chipmakers were the main contributors to this increase. U.S. Stock Futures, S&P 500 eminis, rose by 0.3% while Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.7%. This was due to the positive results of AI cloud company CoreWeave, which were released after the market closed Tuesday.
Talks to End the War in Iran Continue
The markets were still closely following the talks to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz for shipping traffic. Both the U.S., and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis, reported separate attacks against shipping on Tuesday. Iran and the U.S. both have increased their rhetoric over recent days.
Mohsenrezaei said that Iran's top security official would not allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain open unless the U.S. accepted Iran's demands for an end to the war.
Investors are calm despite the lack of progress between the two sides.
Carrell, Schroders' analyst, said: "Our basic case has been for a very long time a gradual and messy de-escalation."
We don't think the Strait of Hormuz will be at full capacity. This puts a floor on the oil prices and keeps the markets fueled by energy inflationary in the short-to-medium-term.
U.S. crude fell 0.3% to $82.94 per barrel and Brent dropped 0.2% to $89,71 per barrel. This was likely to end a positive streak of five days. Both benchmarks closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest close since July 31, and continuing gains after a 5% jump on Monday.
MARKETS ANTICIPATE AN?BOJ HIKE Markets increasingly price in an early rate increase in Japan, putting a pressure on the nation’s shorter-dated debt. The yield on the 5-year Japanese Government Bond rose to a record-high of 2.12%. Meanwhile, the yield for the 2-year Japanese Government Bond reached a high of 1.645%, which is a 31 year old peak.
Investors have priced in a nearly 60% chance of an increase of one quarter point at the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for September.
The yen weakened slightly to 159.12 dollars, but remained below the high of last week of 155.20. This is after?several suspected round of intervention.
The dollar index (which measures a currency's value against a basket) was little changed, at 99.84. Before the U.S. data on inflation, both the euro and sterling struggled to find direction.
Spot gold increased 1%, to $4,413 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2.5%, to $66.29 per ounce. (Reporting from Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift, in London; Editing by Edwina gibbs and Stephen Coates)
(source: Reuters)