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Oil prices rise as a result of the US-Iran standoff

The oil prices increased on Tuesday as the United States and Iran negotiations over a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz reached a stalemate. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the outlook for global inflation dampened global stock markets. U.S. president Donald Trump responded on Monday with his own 'demands' to Tehran’s conditions for a deal. He called for Iran to compensate those who died in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This could complicate efforts to reopen this crucial waterway. Brent crude futures rose 5% over the past two days and last traded at $88 per barrel. This was their highest price since July 31, and almost 25% higher than early July's near four-month lows.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG.

He said, "This will be almost a war of attrition." "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting around $75 to $95 while we wait to find out who blinks first." The U.S. consumer price report for July will not include the latest rise in energy prices, but it can still be used to set expectations for September's Federal Reserve Meeting, where money markets indicate a 50% chance of an increase.

Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist of Capital Economics. He said: "We believe that risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a recovery in rate expectations, and potentially, new worries about stagflation."

U.S. treasury yields increased in Europe in tandem with a modest decline in global bond prices. The yields on 2-year Treasury bonds were up by 1 basis point to 4.253%. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury bond yields rose 2 bps to 4.72%. The latest news, which has seen yields and commodities prices move higher, has changed the mood from last week, when the doves seemed to be in control. Europe's STOXX 600 index drifted during early trading but was not far from last week's records highs. MSCI's All-World Index edged down by 0.1%. Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.1% while S&P500 futures were flat. On Monday, the benchmark indexes declined. Nvidia announced overnight that it has teamed up six major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Apollo, to create a?set of funding measures for AI infrastructure worth more than 500 billion dollars. The company did not provide much detail in terms of financial terms, commitments to invest, or how $500 billion would fit into current funding arrangements.

Sycamore continued, "A small piece of me wondered if this was how I felt when subprime mortgages became mainstream - an innovation that ultimately helped to trigger the GFC." Another sell-off of Nvidia bonds highlighted some of the investor concerns. The 2% bond maturing 2032, which was the last to yield 4.887% on Tradegate's platform, is up almost 7 basis points from Monday. Intel has raised $20 billion in a share offering, its first since 1971 when the chipmaker was listed. Intel shares in Europe increased by around 1%. The yen, among currencies, was once again in the spotlight. It weakened past 159 and was well off its high of last week of 155.20, after several suspected rounds, including a move by Japan and United States. The holiday season in Japan led to a thinner trading volume than usual. This is often seen as an indication of possible intervention, since smaller trades have a greater impact on prices. The Australian dollar fell 0.07%, or $0.7049, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35%, for a second consecutive meeting. However, it said that if necessary, they might raise their rate again to control inflation. Gold, which is up 8% this month so far, fell 0.6% on the day to $4,365 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)