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Hormuz, inflation and global stocks are in the spotlight

Hormuz, inflation and global stocks are in the spotlight
Hormuz, inflation and global stocks are in the spotlight

Markets remained focused on Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and a possible deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz as they climbed higher Monday.

The Stoxx 600 index, which covers Europe as a whole, rose by 0.2%. Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 increased by 0.1%. Nasdaq futures also gained 0.2%.

The U.S. stock market hit a new record on Friday, after traders cut their bets about Fed rate increases due to a weaker than expected jobs report.

Iran announced on Sunday, as markets focused on inflationary pressures that a deal was being finalized with Oman?about transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has reiterated its position that the waterway will only be reopened once the United States?mets other conditions. These include compensation, the end of sanctions and military threat and the lifting of the sanctions.

Brent crude grew 2% to $85 per barrel, as the shipping through the Strait remained?at a trickle. Although it was still well below its peak in late April of over $126 per barrel.

Wednesday's U.S. Inflation reading will have a major impact on the Fed officials' rate decisions.

The economists surveyed by are expecting the consumer price index will have increased 3.4% year-on-year on Wednesday. This is compared to a 3.5% increase in the previous month.

Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said, "We remain confident that the Fed will not hike rates this year." The key would be the inflation report this week.

Kumar said that if oil prices remain stable and continue to fall from their current levels, the Fed would not need to raise rates.

Asian shares grew overnight in line with Wall Street, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining 2.1% and South Korea adding 0.7%.

The MSCI global index rose 0.1% on Monday.

EARNINGS HELP POWER STOCK

In recent weeks, stock markets have soared to record levels around the globe. This was largely due to strong corporate earnings.

Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were 30% higher than the previous year, even after taking out investment gains made by Alphabet and Amazon. The 76% EPS?rate was the highest since 2021.

JPMorgan strategists revised their estimate of 2026 EPS to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently at 7,758.

This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor company Applied Materials and cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all posted positive results.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen very slightly, to 4.664%. This week the market is expecting $125 billion of new issuance.

The currency markets were largely stable, with the euro only a few cents off its seven-week high at $1.155.

Investors remained wary about possible intervention, but the dollar rose 0.5% to 158.68 yen.

A summary of the opinions expressed at the Bank of Japan's July meeting shows that policymakers are concerned about inflation, which could force them to increase interest rates faster than expected. This is a strong argument for an increase in September. Harry Robertson reported from London, Wayne Cole from Sydney and Sharon Singleton edited the article.

(source: Reuters)