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Goldman raises Q4 oil price outlook on lower OECD stocks
Goldman Sachs has raised their Brent and West Texas 'Intermediate Crude Forecasts for the Fourth Quarter of 2026 by $6 each to $60 and $56, respectively. They cited lower OECD stock levels, while continuing to assume that there will be no 'Iran-related disruption in supply and maintaining a view of a surplus. It now expects Brent oil to average $64, up from $56 before, and WTI oil to average $60. As the U.S. prepared for a third nuclear?talks with Iran, fears of escalating violence were eased. Brent crude futures traded at $71 a bar at?0641 GMT while U.S. WTI futures were at $65 a barrel. In a Sunday note, 'Goldman' said that its $60 Brent forecast reflected a gradual fading away of a $6 premium estimate assuming geopolitical tensions would ease - and a $5 decrease in the fair price for rising stocks within OECD. The bank kept its forecast for 2026 of 2.3m barrels per day, assuming that there would be no major disruptions in supply and no peace between Russia and Ukraine. The bank's 2026 surplus is a result of a 0.2 million bpd downward revision to the supply and demand due to a slightly slower growth in Asia. Due to production shortfalls in Kazakhstan, Venezuela and Iran, the bank has downgraded their 2026 outlook for supply. However, it has upgraded its expectations for supply in the Americas as well as core OPEC 'countries that have spare capacity. The bank expects OPEC+?to begin gradually increasing production?in second quarter 2026 given that OECD inventory has not built up. Goldman expects a downside risk of $5 for Brent, and $8 for WTI, for the fourth quarter?of 2026, if sanctions relief for Iran and Russia increases landed stock and releases higher supply?in the long term. The firm expects WTI and Brent to be at $66 and $70 by December 2027, respectively. This is due to a slowing of supply and a solid demand. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Swati verma; Editing and proofreading by Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Andy Home: ROI-West must set its own prices to avoid China's control of rare earths.
The price of rare Earths has risen sharply, pushing the market price above the minimum price guaranteed by the U.S. government in its groundbreaking deal with domestic producer MP Materials. The good news is that the U.S. government will not be subsidizing MP Materials' production of neodymium, praseodymium or NdPr as long as the price remains above the critical threshold at $110 per kilogram. Since signing the agreement with the Department of Defense in July last year, the innovative 'floor-price' mechanism has protected the U.S. National champion from low prices. DoD earns 30% on the price increase. The problem is that China sets the price reference. If the West is to break China's stranglehold on rare Earths, they need not only their own production base, but also a market-based pricing mechanism. CHINESE PRICING Power According to MP Materials' regulatory filing, the current reference point in the MP Materials-DoD deal is the ex works China NdPr Index compiled by Asian Metal. A competing Chinese agency, Shanghai Metal Market (SMM), is also referred to in the chart. China's dominance in the supply chain is reflected in its influence on global rare earths prices. It is the largest physical market for critical metals required to manufacture permanent magnets. Chinese pricing is inevitably accompanied by Chinese characteristics. By its nature, a Chinese ex-works will refer to the market dynamics of China. They are diverging from the West's, where the West is trying to develop its own supply chain while China restricts exports. The way Chinese prices are calculated is a problem. AM and SMM both provide market data on industrial metals. Both must adhere to Beijing's legal framework, which is codified in its 1998 Pricing Law. According to a report from a U.S. Select Committee on China, published in November 2025. Select Committee on China "effectively makes illegal the publication of prices that differ from the PRC Government's wishes." Escape Clause The price mechanism in the U.S. Government's agreement with MP Materials contains an escape clause. If "an internationally recognized alternative index that expresses mid-market prices per ton for NdPr (Pr6O11 25%), Nd2O3 (75%), ex-China is developed," the DoD may elect to change the price reference from AM's assessment. Both Western price reporting agencies as well as exchanges appear to be aiming for this exact outcome. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence began collecting prices of rare earths sold outside China. The CME Group, as well as the Intercontinental Exchange, are also studying the possibility of rare earth futures. LITHIUM TEMPLATE Lithium is a good example of a template. Price swings at the Wuxi Exchange in China and, more recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have historically had a great impact on the Western market. The CME's development of futures contracts for lithium has reduced the dependence on Chinese prices. The first two years after the CME launched its contract for lithium hydroxide in 2021 saw a minimal turnover. Activity has increased rapidly since the Western?market matured, and both buyers as well as sellers have sought alternatives to Chinese currency exchange rates. CME volumes increased by 37% in 2025 compared to the previous year. January's turnover was also a record, with 19,590 contracts. CME has added to the original contract an option contract, a contract for lithium carbonate, and a contract for spodumene, creating a comprehensive supply-chain suite. Chinese prices still influence Western pricing, as China is the largest market for lithium and rare earths. Western lithium companies are no longer completely dependent on Chinese price discovery. They now have the ability to hedge their risk and attract funding for new projects. TRANSPARENCY China's pricing power in critical minerals is due to its dominance in both the physical supply chain as well as in price discovery. For the West to be free, it must address both sides of the issue. The U.S. Geological Survey has identified 60 minerals as being critical, including lithium and rare earths. To build Western supply chains, you need to create a complementary market ecosystem. The price of NdPr in China will determine the fate of both the U.S. taxpayers and government. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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L&G, a UK fund giant, commits $1 billion for a new wave of debt swaps
Legal & General is the largest asset manager in Britain. It has pledged up to $1 billion in five years as a cornerstone investment in a new wave of "debt for nature" swaps. Debt-for nature swaps are designed to reduce interest costs?so that governments can spend more money on conservation. But the market is in a drought after President Donald Trump returned to power and key U.S. support dried up. L&G is using its institutional power to support a wider push for the revival and growth of the market. It has backed Ecuador’s record-breaking swap for its Galapagos Islands 2023 as well as transactions in Belize and Gabon. Enosis capital, a specialist firm, is leading the effort. It has also partnered with major environmental organizations and AXA XL insurance to cover political risks. This coverage is often critical for these types of transactions. Jake Harper, senior investor at L&G, said that this "will allow us to be the cornerstone investors (in the planned debt swaps) or, hopefully, in some situations, the sole?funders of the transactions". L&G will invest $2.4 billion in the emerging markets, nearly doubling its investment in nature conservation. billion. The firm will also be able to establish a large presence in a corner of the market where debt-for nature deals have been rare, with only $6 billion in debt-for-nature transactions being done over the past five years. Harper stated that the goal was to speed up transactions. COMPREHENSIVE PACKAGE The debt swap allows investors to conserve money by purchasing expensive government bonds and loans, then replacing them with less expensive ones. This is done thanks to "credit guarantees" which protect investors from future political turmoil. Ecological stakes are at an all-time high. According to the Living Planet Index, the World Wide Fund for Nature and the Zoological Society of London, the global population of mammals, birds and fish has declined by an average of 73% since 1970. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation's (IDFC) lack of political risk "guarantees", which backed swaps in Ecuador and Belize, Gabon, and?El Salvador, is a major reason for recent lulls in debt swaps. Ramzi Issa co-founded?Enosis Capital late in 2024, after pioneering debt swap structure at Credit Suisse. He said that the combination of L&G and AXA XL under one umbrella provides countries looking to?swaps with an almost readymade group of supporters. Issa stated that the company wanted to be able to offer a comprehensive package in these transactions. He added that a dozen swaps are currently being worked on. L&G Harper stated that some of the $1?billion in funding could be used to support new initiatives such as debt-for?education or debt?for?food swaps. He said that there is "a movement" among UK long-term investors to invest more in emerging markets, and that debt swaps are attractive because they have credit guarantees which make them investment grade quality. Adam Tomasek is the head of the Debt for Nature Coalition, a coalition of conservation groups. He said that L&G's commitment upfront and Enosis’ broader setup could help convince more governments to pursue swaps. He said that this was a "major step forward".
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Counting the costs of tariff chaos
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Early Asian reactions to the mess of a U.S. Tariff Policy were to revive the sell America meme. The dollar and Wall Street futures both dropped. The Supreme Court has now struck down President Trump's emergency tariff policy. They basically said that he had been violating the law for over a year. Trump then holds a?media?conference in which he announces that a 10% tariff will be applied to all goods from Tuesday. He then announced on social media that the tariff would be increased to 15% immediately. This apparently caught some of his officials by surprise. White House posted on Friday a list of items that were exempted from the initial tariff rate of 10%. It's unclear if this will still be the case for the new rate. Trump's bill, which he is now using for the first ever time, prevents discrimination among countries. Therefore, everyone must get the 15%. This includes Russia and North Korea who were initially not included in the tariffs. This means that some countries like the UK and Australia will face higher tariffs while others, such as China, could see theirs fall dramatically. The European Commission has ruled out any changes to the deal between India and the U.S. The power lasts only?150 before Congress must extend it. This is something that Republican legislators will be reluctant to do, given the?unpopularity of tariffs in opinion polls. White?House officials claim that tariff rates won't change much, and that trade agreements already agreed upon will remain in place. It's not clear how this works, given that these deals were made under tariffs which no longer exist. Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened to embargo trading partners if they did not honor these agreements. Imagine the U.S. excluding itself from global trade. Would the U.S. Navy blockade Chinese port? Or European ports? It might be easier for the navy to blockade all U.S. port. There's also the rush to get refunds for the roughly $170 billion of now illegal tariffs that were paid. More than 1,800 lawsuits have already been filed at the US Court of International Trade. Any money that is reimbursed to the importers will likely not go to the consumers who paid the tariffs through higher prices. Due to the uncertainty, European stock futures have fallen 0.5%. S&P futures have dropped 0.8%. Nasdaq Futures are down 1%. Markets were already nervous ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. This will test the strength of the AI market. The world's largest company is expected to report a 71% increase in earnings per share for the fiscal fourth quarter, on revenues of $65,9 billion. Analysts expect an average?EPS for the upcoming fiscal year of $7.76. Estimates range from $6.28 up to $9.68. Options indicate that its?shares may move by at least 6 percent in either direction after the announcement. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - Appearances of Christine Lagarde President of the European Central Bank, Alan Taylor MPC of Bank of England, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller - Includes data from the Ifo survey in Germany, US factory orders and Dallas and Chicago Fed surveys
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Goldman Sachs increases oil price forecasts for Q4 2026
Goldman Sachs has raised their Brent and 'West Texas Intermediate crude' forecasts for the fourth quarter 2026 by $6 each, to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower than expected OECD stocks. However, it still assumes that there will be no disruption in supply due to Iran and continues to maintain its view on a 2026 excess. In a Sunday note, the 'bank stated that it expected OPEC+ would begin to gradually increase?production during the second quarter 2026 due to the fact that OECD inventories had not yet built. The bank's 2026 forecast of a surplus of 2.3 million barrels a day (bpd) was maintained, assuming that there would be no major disruptions in supply and that Russia-Ukraine will not reach peace. The bank's 2026 surplus is a result of a 0.2 million bpd downward revision to the supply and demand due to softer growth in Asia. Goldman expects that the downside risk for Brent will be $5 and for WTI $8 in the fourth quarter of 2026, depending on whether sanctions relief for Iran or Russia could accelerate landed stock building and increase supply?in the long term. The firm expects Brent and WTI prices to be $65 and $60 respectively in 2027, and to rise to $70 & $66 by December 2027 due to a slowdown in supply growth and solid demand. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus in Bengaluru)
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Wall St futures dollar drops amid US tariff turmoil
Wall Street futures in Asia and the dollar fell on Monday, as confusion about U.S. trade tariffs prompted the "sell America's" trade. Meanwhile, the tech-diva Nvidia is set to release its results this week. This will test the confidence of the AI sector. Gold prices dropped and gold grew ahead of the next round of talks between the United States and Iran, which will take place in Geneva on Friday. The risk of U.S. strikes remains if there is no agreement. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's emergency duties, uncertainty grew. He announced a new rate of 10% on the rest, but then increased it to 15%. Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at NAB. He said, "The tariff landscape has become more uncertain. Uncertainty is bad news for any market or economy." "Unless common sense prevails we could enter a circular procedure where new tariffs announced are then possibly overturned only to have new tariffs announced and?we do the same dance again." There was no clear indication of when the tariffs would come into effect, what would be excluded, or if every country would get a 15% tax. Several countries, such as the UK and Australia, had tariff rates of 10% under the old rules. However, many other Asian countries had higher rates. In a light trade, Asian markets showed mixed results. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.8%. The Nikkei closed for the holiday, but futures fell 1.0% to 56,605 against a close cash of 56,825. South Korea's bull run was extended by a 1.2% rise after a 5.5% jump last week. Taiwan rose by 1.2%, reaching a new record high. NVIDIA to test AI Mettle In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both eased by 0.5% while FTSE Futures declined by 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by 0.7% ahead of Nvidia's earnings, which will be a big deal since the tech giant makes up almost 8% in the S&P 500. Estimates range from $6.28 up to $9.68. Options suggest that its shares could move at least 6% either way on the announcement. The tariff news had a negative impact on the Treasury market, as it increased the risk that the U.S. Government would be forced to refund around $170 billion of revenue. On paper, this would increase the fiscal deficit by half a point, or 6.6%, of GDP. Cash Treasuries did not trade in Japan due to the holiday, but 10-year notes futures were down 2 ticks. Mixed data had also pushed the market in two directions, with the economic growth falling short of forecasts for the December quarter but core inflation rising. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June dropped to 52% from 60% a few weeks ago. This has led to a stronger dollar for the week. The dollar was under pressure on Monday amid speculation that the tariff chaos could cause investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets. The dollar lost 0.6% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.06, and the euro gained 0.4% to $1.1826. The dollar also lost 0.6% against the Swiss franc, falling to 0.7716. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's selling spread fell by 4.6% to $64,478. Gold gained 1.0% on the commodity markets as a result of a bid for safe havens. Silver rose 3.2% to $87.25 an ounce after a nearly 8% increase on Friday. Oil prices are choppy and have eroded some of the gains from last week, when Trump stated that the U.S. military would be able to strike specific targets within Iran if there was no nuclear agreement. Brent crude fell by 1.1%, to $70.94 per barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.2%, to $65.71 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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Wall St futures dollar drops amid US tariff turmoil
Wall Street futures, and the dollar, fell in Asia on Monday as confusion over U.S. Tariffs revived "sell America", while the tech-diva Nvidia's results this week will test the confidence of the AI sector. Gold prices rose and oil prices eased as the world prepares for another round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, which will take place in Geneva on Friday. The risk of U.S. strikes remains if no deal is reached. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's emergency duties, uncertainty loomed. He announced a new rate of 10% on the rest, but then raised it to 15%. "The tariff landscape has become more uncertain, and uncertainty is bad news for any market or economy," said Rodrigo Catril. He is a senior FX strategist with NAB. "If common sense does not prevail, we may be in a circle where we announce new tariffs, which are then overturned and new ones announced. Then we repeat the dance." There was no clear indication of when the tariffs would come into effect, what would be excluded, or if every country would get a 15% tax. The UK, Australia and other countries had tariffs of?10% under the old rules. However, many Asian countries had rates higher than that. In light trading, Asian markets showed mixed results. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.8%. The?Nikkei 225 closed for the holiday, but futures fell 1.0% to 56,605 against a close in cash of 56,825. South Korea's bullish run was extended by a 1.2% increase, after a 5.5% jump last week. Taiwan rose by 1.2%, reaching a new record high. NVIDIA to test AI Mettle In Europe, EUROSTOXX50 futures and DAX Futures both eased by 0.5% while FTSE Futures declined by 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by 0.7% ahead of Nvidia's earnings, which will be a big deal since the tech giant makes up almost 8% in the S&P 500. Estimates range from $6.28 up to $9.68. Options suggest that its shares may?shift at least 6% either way on the announcement. The news of the tariffs had a negative impact on the Treasury market, as it increased the risk that the U.S. Government would be forced to refund around $170 billion worth of revenue. On paper, such a result would increase the fiscal deficit to 6.6% of GDP, or a?half-point. Cash Treasuries did not trade in Japan due to the holiday, but 10-year notes futures were down 2 ticks. Mixed data also caused the market to be pushed in two directions. The December quarter's economic growth was far below expectations, while core inflation surprised on the high end. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June dropped to 52% from 60% a few weeks ago. This had led to the dollar strengthening on the week. The dollar was under pressure on Monday amid speculation that the tariffs chaos could cause investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets. The dollar lost 0.6% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.06, and the euro gained 0.4% to $1.1826. The dollar fell?0.6% against the Swiss Franc, to 0.7716. Meanwhile,?the spread for selling Bitcoin dropped 4.6% and reached $64,478. Gold gained 1.0% on the commodity markets as a result of a bid for safe havens. Silver rose 3.2% to $87.25 an ounce after climbing nearly 8% on Friday. Oil prices are choppy and have eroded some of the gains from last week, when Trump stated that the U.S. military would be able to strike specific targets within Iran if there was no nuclear agreement. Brent crude fell by 1.1%, to $70.94 per barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.2%, to $65.71 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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The US tariffs are causing new uncertainty about oil prices after the Iran nuclear talks.
Oil prices fell?1%?on Monday as the U.S., Iran, and other countries headed to a third round nuclear talks. This eased concerns over a possible conflict. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's new tariffs created uncertainty about global growth and fuel consumption. Brent crude futures fell 75?cents or 1.05% to $71.01 a barge by 0055 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude?futures dropped 74?cents or 1.11%, and were now at $65.74 a barge. Trump announced on Saturday that he will increase a temporary tariff on U.S. Imports from All Countries from 10% to 15%, the maximum allowed by law. This is after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against his previous tariff program. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, said that the tariff 'news' over the weekend has resulted in some risks aversion flows today. This can be seen in the prices of gold and U.S. stock futures. It is also weighing down on the crude oil rate. The decision to impose tariffs offset the growing concern about a possible military conflict between America and Iran, which drove Brent and WTI up by more than 5% in price last week. Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi announced?on Sunday that Iran and the U.S. would hold a third round?of?nuclear discussions on Thursday at Geneva. Sycamore stated that the announcement confirmed his belief that Iran and the U.S. are engaged in a diplomatic cat-and-mouse game. Sycamore stated that "I do not believe the U.S. is interested in attacking?Iran due to the risks of regional destabilisation as well as voter discontent before the November midterms." A senior Iranian official said that Iran had 'indicated' it was willing to make concessions in its nuclear program for the lifting sanctions and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Jamie Freed and SonaliPaul)
Saudi Aramco has sold its first Jafurah condensate cargoes, according to sources, to US firms and India
Saudi Aramco, the state energy company, has sold several cargoes of ultra-light crude oil from Jafurah's $100 billion gas plant to U.S. refiners and an Indian refining company as it prepares to ship its first cargo this month.
The Jafurah Project, which is estimated to contain approximately 229 trillion standard cubic feet of gas and 75 billion barrels condensate in total, is at the heart of Aramco’s ambitions to increase its gas production to become a global player and expand its offering of light crude grades.
Sources said that U.S. giant Chevron purchased two Jafurah Condensate cargoes, which will be loaded later this month or in March. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Indian Oil Corp. bought cargoes, which they plan to lift next month.
They added that the cargoes sold for a premium of $2 to $3 per barrel over Dubai's quotes, on a free-onboard basis.
First cargo likely to be sent to South Korea
Two sources have said that the first shipment of Chevron will likely go to its joint venture refiner in South Korea, GS -Caltex. The second cargo could be headed to Thailand to Star Petroleum Refining.
Aramco Exxon IOC SPRC and SPRC have not responded to comments immediately. GS Caltex had no immediate comment. Chevron refused to comment. Jafurah could be the largest shale-gas project outside of the U.S., and it is expected to reach sustainable production levels of 2 billion cubic foot per day by 2030.
A source said earlier that Aramco would be able to export between four and six cargoes of Jafurah Condensate of 500,000 barrels per month through the eastern port of Yanbu. earlier.
Condensate can be used to make petrochemical feedstock, naphtha or other refined products. It can also be blended with crude oil to be distilled in refineries.
According to an initial crude assay, the Jafurah Condensate contains 0.17% sulfur and has a?API gravity of 49.7°.
The assay revealed that about 40% of its output was 'petrochemical feedstock, naphtha', mostly the heavier grades, and the remainder was gasoil or kerosene.
(source: Reuters)