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Iran's smelter attacks have caused a hole in the US aluminum supply chain
Analysts said that with the 'attacks' on two of the largest aluminium smelters across the Middle East, Iran targeted a'major supplier to the United States?of a metal strategic the United States does not produce nearly enough domestically. The disruption caused by the Iran War was most evident before the weekend. It was mainly due to the difficulties of shipping raw materials and aluminium through the Strait of Hormuz. This has been closed down by Tehran. Emirates Global Aluminium, however, reported that its Al Taweelah plant in Abu Dhabi (the United Arab Emirates), which produces approximately 1.5 million metric tons per year, suffered significant damage as a result of Iranian attacks on Saturday. Aluminium Bahrain reported that its 1.6 million ton/year plant was also targeted. Since then, neither company has provided an update. The attacks have shifted the focus from temporary shipping delays to a more serious threat for production in the area. Paul?Adkins of aluminium consulting AZ Global wrote on LinkedIn: "That changes risk's nature." London Metal Exchange aluminium price reacted Monday, jumping 6% to $3.492 per ton. This is close to four-year high. Tom Price, analyst at Panmure Liberum, said: "In this type of market, if you suddenly remove 3 million tons capacity, it can't be replaced." US DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING DWARFED IN THE MIDDLE EAST Aluminum, widely used in automobiles and packaging, and listed on the 60 critical minerals list by the U.S. Government is now facing supply-chain risk. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. is 60% dependent on imports of aluminium. In 2025 it produced only 660,000 tonnes of primary aluminum, less than half of Alba's output. According to Trade Data Monitor, nearly 22 percent of the total 3.4 million tonnes of U.S. primary and alloyed aluminum imports last year came from the Middle East. The UAE, Bahrain and EGA, through which more than two thirds of the Gulf's aluminium is produced, are the United States' second and fourth largest suppliers. Iran claimed that both EGA, and Alba, were connected to U.S. Military Industries. The attacks came after Israeli strikes on two Iranian steel plants. Analysts are, however, sceptical. Uday Patel, senior research manager at Wood Mackenzie, said that there was no direct connection to the U.S. Military other than some of their metal could be used in military applications through a?long chain of processing and changing hands. Wood Mackenzie estimates that the U.S. military industry consumes 450,000 tons of aluminum annually. Price believes that the U.S. military gets most of its aluminum from Canada. While the U.S. military may not be directly affected, this does not mean that Iran's targeting Gulf oil and a possible?deepening conflict do not cause damage to the U.S. economy and other major economies. The stresses have already started to show up in industrial activity, and are further hindering planning which was already suffering from high levels of uncertainty," StoneX Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray wrote.
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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by timely bets. This is a list. March 23, 2026: 'IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader bet $500,000,000 on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced a delay of five days to the attacks on Iran’s?energy Infrastructure. After this announcement, oil prices dropped 15%, according to exchange data and calculations. LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT, 5,100 lots were traded. Selling dominated the volume. In 60 seconds after Trump's 1105 GMT social media announcement, more than 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, traded. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99. IRAN STRIKES WHICH KILLED SUPREME ALI KHAMENEI February 28, 2026 – Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket prior to the death of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Alikhamenei heightened scrutiny on prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a prohibition on?bets linked to military action that could reward people with privileged knowledge. Kalshi faces a lawsuit because it failed to pay $54million to bettors who predicted Khamenei's departure from office before March 1. The company claims that it doesn't offer markets where the outcome is determined by death. A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on contracts relating to the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million was bet on Khamenei being removed as supreme ruler. Trading yes-or no contracts allows users to wager on real-world events. Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified six accounts that had made $1.2 million in profit on Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids of February 28. Mike Levin, a Californian U.S. Representative, highlighted a specific Polymarket bet made shortly before the Iran attacks. Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27. Despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell Treasuries with a long maturity, they pushed yields on the 10-year benchmark note below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or where there is a strong expectation of one. The Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index fell 5.13% that day, as oil prices increased. January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 by betting on the ouster?of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Before the weekend raid by U.S. Special Forces on Maduro’s Caracas compound, the trader’s account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms implied high odds. These wagers were worth $34,000 before his capture. However, their value soared after the news broke of the U.S. military raid on Maduro's compound in Caracas. Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions of dollars in the minutes leading up to Trump's announcement about tariff pause. This led to a huge rally in April, last year. Trump's Truth Social message pausing tariffs was posted at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain option contracts have seen a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price was $4.20. These calls rose to as much as $42 when stocks were rallying, turning $2.14 into approximately $21.44 on paper. Other SPY calls that bet on the ETF going above $509 were traded around 1:10 p.m. Their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day. The trader could not tell if the calls had been bought or sold by a single trader, or if they were purchased and sold by several traders. Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.
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The European and African oil market is tightening as Asia purchases more
As summer approaches, the European and African oil markets are becoming more tight. Asia is seeking to supply supplies in order to meet shortages due Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has been going on for five weeks. Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the attacks on the energy infrastructure of Middle East Gulf countries and Iran have forced the shut down of 10 million barrels of oil per day from the Middle East. This production volume is at least 10% of the?daily consumption of oil in the world. Asia is most affected by oil and natural gas disruptions because it relies on Middle East supplies and is the largest oil-importing region. Middle East Dubai oil benchmark reached a record high of $169.75 in March, breaking Brent futures previous record of $147.50 from 2008. According to LSEG, North Sea Forties crude rose to a $7.20 premium per barrel to dated Brent last Friday. This was the highest ever recorded. Paper markets around North?Sea prices are also tight. The first week of short-term Brent Swaps, also known as Contracts for Differences, which indicate the dated Brent price, traded $12.35 higher per barrel than the contract six months ahead on March 27. This was a record. "Globally there are fewer available barrels, so those who need them bid up the prices," said Neil Atkinson. He is a former head of oil markets at the International Energy Agency, and an experienced oil analyst. Morgan Stanley analysts reported on Monday that Asian buyers who are looking for valuable barrels in other places have been putting pressure on prices. ASIA IS BUYING MORE OIL OUT OF EUROPE AND AFRICA According to trade data and shipping sources, more European gasoline cargoes are heading to Asia as Asian prices have risen due to a tightening of supply. Asia is also importing more crude oil from Europe and West Africa. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that "the supply that is being diverted to the east comes from a pool that Europe could otherwise use to balance themselves." They also added that more oil coming from West Africa is headed to Asia, and that it can be traded between Europeans and Asians. "North Sea cargoes have now moved east despite seemingly unattractive arbitrage signals." Kpler reports that crude and product shipments from Europe, as well as key West African producers Angola, and Nigeria, to Asia are expected to increase by 200,000 bpd in March from February, to 3.72 millions bpd. On Monday, U.S. WTI Midland Crude, which is used to set the benchmark for dated Brent, was trading at a record $9.50 premium per barrel to dated Brent delivered to Europe. This is almost $8 more than it was before the start of the war. (Reporting from London by Robert Harvey, editing by Rod Nickel).
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Nxtra, owned by Bharti Airtel in India, raises $1 billion during data center boom
In a deal valued at $3.1 billion, India's Bharti Airtel owned Nxtra Data will raise $1 billion from Alpha Wave Global and Carlyle Global. Anchorage Capital is also a part of the deal. The deal is the latest of a series of investments made by Indian?conglomerates Reliance & Adani in recent months in data infrastructure to position India as an emerging hub for AI. India's role in the global AI boom is limited because of its lack of large-scale chip production. Data centers are therefore India's best entry point to this fast-growing market. Alpha Wave, a private equity firm, will lead the fundraise by investing $435 million. Bharti Airtel is expected to invest $290 million. Carlyle Global will pump in $240m, and Anchorage Capital $35m. Bharti Airtel, India's largest mobile carrier by users, has announced that it will keep its controlling interest in Nxtra. Nxtra plans to use the funds to expand its services and scale up its infrastructure. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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G7 ready to take all necessary measures to stabilize the energy market
They said that finance leaders of the Group 'of Seven' economic powers are ready to take 'all necessary measures'?to protect energy market stability, and to limit wider economic spillovers due recent volatility. The G7 central bankers, finance and energy ministers, and the United States, Canada and Japan along with Britain, France, Germany, Italy and France held a teleconference on Monday to coordinate their actions as the war in Iran disrupts the global energy market. Prices for OIl? rose to a new record high on Monday. The G7 stated in a press release after the meeting, organized by France, the group's president this year, that they were "ready to take all necessary steps in close coordination with partners, to maintain the stability and security of the energy market". The 32 members of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from their strategic oil stockpiles earlier this month in order to combat an increase in global crude prices. The G7 stated that it supports efforts to 'keep energy flowing' and noted IEA options for managing demand depending on the national circumstances. The G7 also urged countries to "refrain from imposing unjustified restrictions" on exports of oil, gas and related products. Satsuki Katayama, Japanese Finance Minister, said that the likelihood of oil prices rising and supply concerns impacting markets and economic growth had increased. She said, "As a result, we all agreed that this situation cannot continue." The?statement stated that the G7 central banks were committed to maintaining monetary policy based on data. This is because economists believe that higher energy prices are likely to drive inflation. Charlotte Van Campenhout and Leigh Thomas contributed to the report, with additional reporting from Leika Kihara, in Tokyo. Editing was done by Benoit Van overstraeten, Barbara Lewis, and Barbara Lewis.
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Powell: Fed will 'wait and watch' to see how war effects economy
Federal Reserve Chair?Jerome Powell said on Monday that the U.S. Central Bank can wait to see the impact of the Iran War on the economy and inflation. He noted that policymakers usually look past shocks like those caused by higher oil prices. Powell told a Harvard University macroeconomics class that he felt his policy was in a "good?place" to watch how the war with Iran will affect the economy and inflation. The Iran war is now in its fifth week, and the U.S. As gasoline prices increase to an average of around $4 per gallon, the Fed is faced with a dilemma between its two mandates: full employment and price stabilization. Powell stated that "inflation expectations appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term." Powell said, "We're not facing the decision yet, because we do not know the economic impact, but we will certainly consider that larger context when making that decision." After a two-day meeting on policy, the Fed held its overnight interest rate constant in the range of 3.5%-3.75% earlier this month. Powell, in a press conference following the meeting, said that he wanted to see the 'tariff-driven inflation of goods prices subside, before deciding whether to ignore the 'inflation rise caused by the Iran War, or to respond with tighter monetary policies to prevent inflation from accelerating. Since then, investors' concerns about inflation have contributed to an increase in Treasury yields. A University of Michigan survey also showed that household expectations for prices in the next year had risen. Other measures have been more optimistic, such as a widely-watched market-based indicator.
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Brent reaches record monthly increase as Houthi attack escalates Gulf conflict
The oil prices continued to rise on Monday. Brent is on track for a monthly record after the Yemeni Houthis launched their first attack on Israel, escalating the Iran War. Brent futures were up 66?cents (0.6%), or $113.23 per barrel, at 1031 ET (1431 GMT), after closing 4.2% higher Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate?futures rose $2.2 or 2.2% to $101.83 following a 5.5% gain in the previous session. Brent's price has risen by 58% in the last month. This is the highest monthly increase since 1988. Brent also outperformed gains during the Gulf War of 1990. U.S. Crude, on the other hand, has increased by 51%, its largest monthly gain since May 2019. The gains were largely due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint is responsible for about one-fifth of all global oil and natural gas supplies. The conflict began February 28 when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. It has now spread across the Middle East and heightened concerns about shipping routes in the Arabian Peninsula, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Israel's army said that it intercepted drones launched by Yemen on Monday. This was two days after the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, fired missiles towards Israel for the very first time since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began. Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group backed by Iran, also launched rockets against Israel on Monday. The Houthis are yet to attack the Red Sea shipping, which accounts for 15% of all global maritime traffic. Robert Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. TRUMP ISSUES IRAN WARNING AGAIN Trump warned Iran on Monday to reopen Strait of Hormuz, or face U.S. attack on its oil?wells and power plants. Trump said in a post on social media that "great progress has been achieved, but if for some reason a deal cannot be reached soon, which is likely to happen, and the Hormuz Strait does not become immediately 'Open for Business', we will end our lovely'stay in Iran' by destroying all their Electric Generating Plants (EGPs), Oil Wells (Oil Wells) and Kharg Island." Trump had previously said that he would stop attacking Iran's energy grid until April 6. Trump had earlier said that as more U.S. soldiers arrived in the Middle East the U.S. has been meeting with Iran "directly and indirect" and Tehran's leaders were "very reasonable". Iran however described U.S. proposals to end a war in the Middle East for a month as "unrealistic and illogical" and launched more missiles at Israel on Monday. Israel's military claimed on Monday it was targeting Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran. Trump's April 6 deadline - by which the U.S. may resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure -- has not had a reassuring impact. "The market now wants to see concrete signs of deescalation and not just rhetoric," SEB Research said in a recent note. Separately, the finance leaders of the Group of Seven said that they were ready to take 'all necessary measures' to protect energy market stability and to limit wider economic spillovers due to recent volatility. OIL DISRUPTIONS Kpler data showed that Saudi crude exports from the Strait of Hormuz were redirected to Yanbu port in the Red Sea last week. This was 4.658 billion barrels of oil per day. This was a significant increase from the average 770,000 barrels per day in January and Feb. Analysts at JP Morgan said that if exports from Yanbu are disrupted, Saudi Arabia would have to shift its focus to Egypt's Suez Mediterranean (SUMED), which runs to the Mediterranean. The attacks in the region intensified at the weekend, damaging Oman's Salalah airport despite attempts to start ceasefire talks. Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical, a Vietnamese company, said that it was in talks to purchase crude oil with Russian partners. The company also said that it would buy more crude oil from Africa, America and Southeast Asia. The ANH, Colombia's national hydrocarbon agency, announced on Monday that the country's oil output fell by 2.74% in February from a year ago.
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Japan asks G7 for more measures to stabilize energy markets
Japan's industry minister said that if the Iran -war continues, the Group of Seven wealthy nations and the International Energy Agency should be prepared to take additional flexible measures to stabilize?energy markets. Ryosei Acazawa, after a meeting online with G7 Finance Ministers, Energy Ministers, and Central Bank Governors, told reporters that these actions could include coordinated additional oil stockpile release at the appropriate time. He said that in Asia, "soaring energy prices and supply concerns are becoming more acute. Shortages of fuel and raw material disrupt global supply chains, and could have a negative impact." The U.S.-Israeli war against?Iran, which began on February 28, has spread throughout the Middle East and killed thousands of people. It also caused the biggest disruption in global energy ever. Iran launched more missiles at Israel on?Monday after describing U.S. peace proposals as "unrealistic and illogical". Export restrictions have been implemented by a number countries, including China, who are dependent on oil, gas, and other products imported from the Gulf to maintain local supplies. The G7 has called on nations to "refrain" from imposing unjustified restrictions on exports of hydrocarbons, and products related. Kyodo News Agency in Japan reported Monday that the Philippine Government had purchased 142,000 barrels from Japan, which?arrived March 26. Akazawa stated that Japan had?supply chain in place across Southeast Asian nations and, from the perspective to maintain these chains, it was important to ensure fuel supplies in each country of the region. He added, "While giving top priority in securing stable domestic energy supplies, we intend to keep close communication with each of the countries." (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Yuka Obayashi)
The European and African oil market is tightening as Asia purchases more
As summer approaches, the European and African oil markets are tightening up. Asia is looking for supplies to fill shortages due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has been going on since last week. Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the attacks on the energy infrastructure of Middle East Gulf countries and Iran have forced the shut down of 10 million barrels of oil per day from the Middle East. This production volume is at least 10% the daily global oil consumption. Asia is most affected by oil and natural gas interruptions because it relies heavily on Middle East supplies and is the largest oil-importing region in the world. Middle East Dubai oil benchmark reached a record high of $169.75 in March, breaking Brent futures previous record set in 2008.
According to LSEG, North Sea 'Forties' crude rose to a $7.20 premium per barrel over Brent dated on Friday. This is the highest ever recorded. Paper markets around North Sea physical prices are also tight. The first week of short-term Brent Swaps Curve, also known as Contracts for Difference, which indicate the dated Brent price, was trading at $12.35 per barrel higher than the contract six?weeks?ahead, on March 27. This is a record.
"Globally there are fewer available barrels, so those who need them bid up the prices," said Neil Atkinson. He is a former head of oil markets at the International Energy Agency, and an experienced oil analyst.
ASIA IS BUYING MORE OPEC FROM EUROPE AND AFRICA
Morgan Stanley analysts stated on Monday that Asian buyers who are looking to secure barrels of oil elsewhere and shortages have caused prices to rise for European buyers. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that "the supply is being diverted east comes from the pool?that Europe would use otherwise to balance itself," adding that more oil coming from West Africa is headed to Asia.
On Monday, U.S. WTI Midland oil, which is used to set the dated Brent benchmark for Europe, was trading at a record $9.50 premium per barrel over dated Brent. This is almost $8 more than before the war began.
Kpler estimates that crude?and product shipments from Europe to Asia, as well as from key West African producers Angola, Nigeria and other West African countries, will increase by about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to February, to reach 3.72 million bpd. Fuel shipments are even being rerouted from Europe to Asia and Africa as a result of the 'tough competition' for supplies. According to Energy?Aspects, four tankers carrying 168,000 metric tons of U.S. gasoil and diesel have been diverted from Europe towards South Africa over the past few weeks. The data also showed that at least four tankers, carrying 430,000 tons Middle Eastern and Indian Diesel, began sailing to Europe in late February or early March, and then made a U-turn towards Southeast Asia. The data showed that European gasoline cargoes were also headed to Asia, after Asian prices soared due to tight supply. Asia also took more crude cargoes out of Europe and West Africa.
(source: Reuters)