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Russell: China is changing its crude oil purchases in response to the price rally.

China's role in setting the floor and ceiling prices for crude oil is one of the less discussed dynamics of the global market.

The world's biggest crude?importer is known to buy excess oil and build up inventories when the refiners or government consider prices to be low. They also pull back imports when they feel that prices are rising too quickly.

Analysts and journalists covering the crude oil market are not aware of the changes in imports because they occur with a delay of several months.

There are early signs, however, that China will shift its imports in favor of crudes with more competitive prices, and also reduce imports starting April.

The reason for this is that crude oil prices are rising sharply, amid tensions between Iran and the United States. There's also concern about a possible Iranian response to a U.S. strike against?oil tankers and installations in the crucial Persian Gulf region.

Brent crude futures have risen 23% from the December 16 low of $58.72, the lowest in seven months.

Brent's rise has led to crudes priced relative to Brent becoming more expensive, including those produced by West African producers Nigeria or Angola.

This has led to producers offering larger discounts to clear their cargoes. Traders report that West African grades have been sold at up to $5 per barrel discount over the Dated Brent benchmark. This is up from $3 earlier this month.

China is often viewed as the buyer of last recourse for West African crudes. The high discounts offered show that there's limited appetite?for extra cargoes.

It is also more expensive to import crude oil from West Africa into China due to higher freight rates, particularly since Middle East producers are lowering their prices.

Saudi Arabia, world's biggest oil exporter has cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for its main Arab Light grades for Asian refiners by a further month for cargoes loaded in March.

According to data, the March OSP for Arab Light Crude was equal to the Oman/Dubai Average, down from $0.30 per barrel in February. This is the lowest premium since December 2020.

China has responded to the Saudi oil crisis by purchasing more crude and other grades of similar grade from Gulf producers.

AFRICA DIP

Kpler data also shows that China is reducing its cargoes coming from Africa. Arrivals in February and march were below the levels of the fourth quarter last year.

Kpler data predicts that China's imports of Africa will be 1,04 million barrels a day in March, and 978, 000 bpd by February. This is down from 1,25 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter 2025.

Due to similar API gravity and sulphur content, there is a high degree of fungibility among grades like Arab Light, Nigeria's Bonny Light or Angola Cabinda.

China is buying cargoes of Urals crude at a steep discount after India, the other major Russian buyer, agreed to buy less sanctioned oil as part of a deal with the United States.

China's imports from Europe of Russian crude, where Urals loads are located,?are expected to reach 824,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February. This is up from 741,000 barrels per day in January and 444,000 in December.

China appears to be buying Russian crude at a discount and cutting back on Brent prices.

It may also be reducing the volume of its imports due to the recent price increase, as it did during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June, last year, which was supported by the United States.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)