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Russell: China added crude oil to its massive stocks in March. But the outlook has changed.

China built the largest crude oil stockpile in the world during March, even as other countries began to use their inventories to make up for the millions of barrels lost due to the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz.

According to calculations based off official data, China, the largest crude importer in the world, had a surplus of 1,74 million barrels a day (bpd).

The 'first quarter' of China saw an excess of crude oil of 1,41 million barrels per day, down from a?record high of 2.67million bpd set in December. However, this is still higher than the average of 1,13million bpd over the entire 2025 period.

China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stocks, but it can be estimated by subtracting the amount processed from total crude produced domestically and imported.

Not all of the excess crude is likely to have gone into storage. Some was processed in plants that are not included in the official data.

Even if you ignore these gaps, the fact remains that China began importing crude oil at a rate far greater than was necessary to meet its domestic fuel needs in March 2025. In March, China imported 11.77 million barrels per day of crude oil while its domestic production was only?4.49million bpd. Refinery processing reached 14.52 million barrels per day, leaving 1.74 million barrels per day for storage.

China's crude oil stockpiles continued to grow in March, despite the fact that imports were not affected by the conflict?in the Middle East which began on February 28, when Israel and the United States launched an aerial attack against Iran.

Oil delivered to China before the start of the conflict would have left the Strait of Hormuz, but imports from April will likely be affected.

It is important to ask how China will respond to the lower crude imports that are expected to begin in April. These may be further restricted if the U.S. The military successfully executes President Donald Trump's directive to?blockade vessels from Iranian port.

Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates that China's seaborne oil imports for April were 8.7 million barrels per day. While this number is likely to rise as more cargoes arrive before the month's end, arrivals are likely to be at their lowest level since August 2022, when 7.97 million barrels per day arrived.

Options

If it wants to maintain domestic refinery rates at current levels, China can use some of its vast crude oil stockpile.

Beijing has not revealed the exact number of commercial and strategic stocks, but analysts estimate that at least 1.2 million barrels are in these inventories.

It would take two years to exhaust the stockpile if China released up to 2,000,000 bpd of its reserves to maintain refinery output.

It is clear that this is an extreme situation, but the truth is that crude oil flow from the Middle East is likely to return at some point to levels similar to those prior to the start of the conflict.

China can easily continue to refine fuels and increase the amount of processing it, allowing for the export of fuels. Beijing has placed informal limits on this since the beginning of the conflict.

Kpler's tracking of shipments for April shows that China exported 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined fuels.

Jet fuel and diesel prices both reached record highs in March due to the loss of refined fuel exports from China. Beijing probably expects the Iran conflict will end within the next few weeks, and that crude oil and other products from the Middle East can resume.

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, the risks to China increase.

China can keep its domestic fuel supplies for a long time because it has a large amount of crude oil reserves. However, if Asian neighbours experience shortages or their economies begin to shut down, it won't be long before this will affect China's export industries.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)