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Russell: India's rising refined product exports help ease Asia's fuel crisis

Can India do for Asia's refined-fuels market what China did?

China drastically cut its crude imports to a decade low in June in response to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. This freed up oil for buyers who were struggling to find cargoes due to the 'effective closure of Strait of Hormuz.

India has taken a different approach, purchasing Russian crude oil and increasing?exports?of refined products in order to offset the lower shipments of refineries from the Middle East and Russia.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, India's light and middle distillates exports are expected to hit 1.55 million barrels a day (bpd).

The second highest level recorded by Kpler since 2017 is almost twice the 866,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May. This was the lowest for nearly four years. It came as a result of the Middle East losing crude oil after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to respond to the U.S. and Israeli attacks launched on February 28, 2018.

India's crude oil imports fell to a 21-month-low of 4,55 million barrels per day (bpd) in April. This impacted the refineries that are geared towards exports and their ability to operate at full capacity.

India, however, has switched to buying Russian crude oil after the Trump Administration lifted sanctions. This allowed importers to buy Russian cargoes openly.

India's imports of Russian goods were 2.73m bpd during June. Kpler estimates that July arrivals will be 2,57m bpd. These are the two best months ever, surpassing the 2.16m bpd recorded in May 2023.

India's decision, similar to China's cut in crude imports to ease the pressure on Asian markets, to increase exports of refined products and buy Russian oil is not a decision made out of altruism. It's based on prices.

India's refiners take advantage of the high premiums that fuels such as diesel and gasoline command over crude oil.

PRODUCT ?PREMIUMS

Benchmark Brent crude futures are up after the collapse of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S.

Gasoil, a building block of diesel, reached a regional benchmark price in Singapore of $156.72 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up by 43% from its post-ceasefire minimum of $109.62 on 26 June, and 71% from $91.42 on 27 February.

Singapore gasoline On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of oil ended at $119.70. This is a 27% increase from its post-deal low on July 9, which was $94.00. It's also a 51% premium to $79.30 on February 27, when it peaked.

Other countries with export capacities are also increasing their output.

Kpler data shows that Oman will export light and middle distillates at a record 783,200 barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is a new high, up from 712,600 barrels per day in June.

Taiwan is expected to export 306,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light and middle distillates this July. This will be the highest since December, and almost three times more than the 124,000 barrels per day shipped in April.

Kpler estimates that the arrivals in July were 5.80 million barrels per day.

The figure for July is 18% lower than the average of 7,05 million bpd during the three months prior to the conflict.

The tightness of the?refined product markets in Asia is evident. Even if refiners had a sufficient amount of crude, they would not have enough export capacity to make up for the losses caused by the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and the Middle East.

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(source: Reuters)