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Russell: Exports of refined fuels from Asia to the US plummet after the closure of Hormuz

The impact of the 'crisis' on the physical fuel markets has worsened. Prices for crude oil futures fluctuated in line with headlines about the conflict between the United States, and Iran.

Brent contracts fell 7.8% to close at $101.27 per barrel on Wednesday, despite the fact that a sustained and full reopening of the 'Strait of Hormuz is still a long time away.

The United States and Israel's February 28th attack on Iran has led to a reduction in the volume of refined products shipped throughout Asia.

The Strait of Hormuz is the main energy-consuming region in the world and the destination of about 80% of the pre-war cargoes.

In April, the combined export volume of these three fuel types was about 3 million barrels a day (bpd), below the average in the three months before the start the conflict.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, jet fuel is the part of the barrel that has been most affected. Asia's fuel exports fell to 596,000 BPD in April from 1.54 Million BPD in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war.

The Kpler data for April was the lowest since 2017. It shows that flow levels are about one-third lower than pre-conflict.

Most of Asia's jet fuel exports are destined for other Asian countries who import it, while smaller quantities go to Africa, Europe, and North America.

India's jet fuel exports fell to 48,600 barrels per day (bpd) in April, from 141,000 bpd before the war, and China's to 135,000 from 308,000 bpd.

According to Kpler, the United Arab Emirates shipped zero jet fuel during the month of April, compared to an average of 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the three months preceding the war.

Singapore assessment prices reflect the shortage of jet fuel cargoes. The price of oil ended at $158.91 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up 70% from its close on February 27th, the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their aerial attack against Iran.

SUPPLY SQUEEZE

The price of gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $141.30 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up by 55% compared to the level before the war.

Kpler reports that Asia's transport fuel exports dropped to a 9-year low in April of 2,22 million bpd, down from a 3.54 million average in the three month period before the start the the?Iran War.

Exports from Japan fell to 32,600 BPD in April, from 148,600 BPD before the conflict. South Korea's dropped from 507,000 to?451,000 BPD, India's to 371,000 from 494,000, and China's to 22,000 from 126 300.

The same is true for gasoline. Asia's exports fell to 1,59 million bpd from an average of 2,28 million bpd during the three months before the Iran War.

South Korea's shipments fell to 181,300 bpd. This is down from the pre-war level of 377,000. China's shipments dropped to 47,000 from 116,000.

Data shows how quickly refiners in Asia are struggling to secure enough crude oil to keep refineries running.

As commercial and strategic stocks are depleted, the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed to most vessels the greater the likelihood that crude shortages will be in Asia.

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(source: Reuters)