Latest News

Dollar at six-week-high as US-Iran discussions in focus. Stocks soar, dollar surges.

Investors were hopeful of a breakthrough at the U.S. Iran peace talks. However, both sides remain at odds on key issues.

Investors are worried about the possible closure of the Strait of 'Hormuz. This is a vital artery that supplies energy to the world. The oil price has soared and the outlook for global interest rates has changed due to inflationary fears.

Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said that there were "some positive signs" in the talks to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. However differences still remain regarding Tehran's stockpile of uranium and the control of the Strait.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.8%, a modest increase for the week. Japan's Nikkei rose by 2.8%, barely missing a record high. Taiwan stocks also increased by 2.3%.

U.S. Stock Futures rose by 0.36%, and European Futures gained?1%. Investor sentiment improved this week after Nvidia's earnings, which capped a solid set of results for big tech companies.

Chris Weston, the head of research at Pepperstone said that news is moving towards tangible items which markets can now price with more conviction.

Weston stated that "although confidence levels are not particularly high, they still remain low."

Oil prices rose on Friday, after a sharp drop as investors were left guessing by conflicting messages about the Iran negotiations. Prices are still well above prewar levels, and it is expected that they will remain high even if there is a resolution.

Brent crude futures were up 1.9% at $104.56 per barrel, but are set to drop 6% for the entire week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 1.35% to $97.64.

Energy disruptions that continue to persist as the war drags out will have a ripple effect on prices around the world, leading traders to increase rates in both developed and emerging markets.

The markets are pricing in a possible rate increase from the U.S. Federal Reserve before the end of this year, compared to expectations of two rates cuts before the war.

Mitch Reznick is the head of Fixed Income at Federated Hermes. He said, "We are seeing an unusually strong correlation between oil prices, and global rates. This shows how wide-ranging and borderless, this shock, has become."

"What at first appeared to be a change in inflation expectations now feeds directly into actual inflation, reinforcing that central banks need to maintain tighter policy for longer to restore price stability."

This has helped to?lift Treasury yields, and boost the dollar. The euro is at $1.1614. This is close to its six-week low, which it reached on Thursday. It will drop 1% this month.

The dollar stood at 99.247 against a basket. The Japanese yen was last sold at 159.11 per dollar. This is dangerously close to the 160 mark that traders fear will bring Japanese authorities back into the market.

Tokyo's intervention to support the currency, estimated at $65 billion, was made just a few weeks earlier.

Data released on Friday revealed that Japan's core rate of inflation fell to a four-year-low in April. This complicates the Bank of Japan’s path of raising rates.

ING senior economist Min Joo Kang said the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP and firm April exports data earlier this week showed the resilience of the Japanese economy despite the energy shocks, which supported a Bank of Japan hike. (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Ankur Banerjee from Singapore)

(source: Reuters)