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Oil prices rise slightly as investors wait for clarity following the Iran-Israel ceasefire
The oil prices rose in the early trade on Tuesday, after Iran and Israel indicated that they were open to a possible resumption in hostilities despite having called an end to hostilities in response to an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were up 13 cents or 0.14% to $94.38 per barrel at 0001 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 11 cents or 0.12% at $91.41 per barrel. Prices rose as high as 5% the previous session, after renewed Israeli attacks on?Iran. Attacks in Lebanon also reduced the hope of an imminent conclusion to the war. However, gains were pared?after Iran announced that it had ended its military operations against Israel. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "While investors are not confident that the truce will last, they do feel some relief at the latest pause in direct strike." Waterer said that the market is pricing in continued uncertainty, rather than a permanent resolution. Iran and Israel announced that they had ceased their attacks after President Donald Trump's appeal to "stop shooting" immediately. However, Tehran stated it would resume its strikes if Israel continued hitting Hezbollah. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that while this stopped the situation from snowballing, it did not change the fact that the geopolitical background remains tense and a lasting deal of peace remains elusive. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said in a video statement broadcast by Israeli Television that Israel would use force if Iran attacks again. In an interview with Axios published on Monday, Trump said that he warned Netanyahu he could find himself fighting alone in the event that he returned to war?with Iran. Waterer stated that the key question is whether or not current de-escalation attempts can translate into a more lasting resolution. Or if we are simply in another temporary lull. Washington wants to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, as it was through this strait that a fifth of world oil supply passed before the United States. Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against?Iran in late February. On Monday, the U.S. The U.S. military reported that forces in the Gulf of Oman disabled an oil tanker after it tried to sail into an Iranian port, in violation of the current blockade against Iran.
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James Hardie defends class actions in Australia for alleged forecast breach
James 'Hardie Industries announced on Tuesday that it will 'defend against a class-action lawsuit filed in an Australian court alleging breaches of?the fibre cement manufacturer’s earnings forecast. The?company's statement said that the proceeding was brought on behalf investors who purchased interests in certain James Hardie Securities between May 21 and 19 August last year. James Hardie was accused of violating certain corporate, consumer and regulatory laws in relation to its statements about future financial performance measures. The company said that it was in compliance with its disclosure obligations and would 'defend themselves against the proceedings. A local report on Monday said that a lawsuit was filed against James Hardie in order to determine if the company failed to disclose adverse circumstances affecting its North American fiber cement business before August 20, 2025. The report said that the case will also examine if James Hardie had to correct or withdraw its 2026 earnings forecast by the end of March 31. James Hardie, in May of last year, said that it expects a low-single-digit increase in the total adjusted operating earnings by 2026. It forecast a low-single-digit increase in net sales for its largest market, North America. North America's fibre cement business has been merged into the Siding & Trim Division.
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USDA confirms that three more cases of screwworm have been confirmed in the United States
The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed three additional cases?of New World?screwworm, including two in Texas. Department of Agriculture confirmed Monday three more cases of New World Screwworm, two of which were in Texas. The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service reported that the two Texas cases involved a calf from La Salle County and an adult goat from Gillespie County. APHIS clarified a fifth case that was reported earlier on Monday, involving a dog from Andrews County. The case will be reclassified to 'the first case detected in New Mexico. The agency stated that the veterinarian who reported the incident is located in Texas. However, the dog resides in Lea County in New Mexico, which borders Texas. In a press release, Dudley Hoskins stated that "this situation is evolving and we expect new information will?emerge? as our investigation continues." New World screwworm can infect any warm-blooded creature, including livestock and pets. It is also known to infest people in rare instances. The larvae burrow into living tissue, causing serious wounds and suffering to animals. The USDA confirmed a second case of the flesh-eating parasite in Texas on Friday, just a few miles away from the site where the first U.S. discovery in decades occurred last week. Reports?last year indicated that hundreds of veterinarians, lab workers, and support staff at the USDA's animal health division had left because the Trump administration had pushed for resignations. This meant that there were fewer specialists available to respond to animal disease outbreaks. Reporting by Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil and Leah Douglas at Washington, and editing by Louise Heavens & Aurora Ellis
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Copper prices boosted by falling stocks at LME warehouses
Prices of copper rose on Monday, as inventories in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange fell. The'market was looking forward to the U.S. announcement at the end of June regarding import tariffs on the metal. Benchmark copper on the?LME rose 0.7% to $13,610 per metric ton by 1602 GMT. Sources in the industry said that traders and funds continue to take copper from the LME into the U.S., before any import duties are imposed. This would increase shipping costs significantly. The U.S. flagged the possibility of 15% levies being imposed on copper imports starting in 2027, and 30% at the beginning of 2028. Copper stocks, which now total 376,775, are down 6% in the last month. Around 39% of cancelled warrants and metal earmarked to be delivered indicate that another 145.800 are due to leave the LME system. The discount on the three-month forward cash copper contract has also been reduced due to lower LME inventories. The traders also cited the strong interest in buying copper from Chinese companies, following Friday's 3% decline to one-week-lows. Copper's upside is capped by the 21-day moving?average, currently around $13,730. Support on the downside comes from the 50-day moving?average, around $13,260. The Middle East, which houses 9% of the global aluminium capacity, is expected to keep its prices stable due to the U.S. vs. Iran war and the closing of the Strait o'Hormuz. Aluminium prices are expected to rise due to higher energy costs, which is a major component of the aluminum process. Industrial metals are generally under pressure due to concerns about growth caused by high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East. The base metals are also being impacted by a higher U.S. dollar, which makes metals priced in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. Aluminium rose by?0.1% at $3,598 per ton. Zinc gained 0.2%, lead fell 0.8%, tin dropped 1.4%, and nickel slipped to $18,355. (Reporting by Pratima Dasai; Editing and re-reporting by Jan Harvey David Holmes Jonathan Ananda).
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UK watchdog launches formal review of eBay’s acquisition of Depop
After completing the first phase of its information gathering, Britain's competition regulator announced on Monday that it would "begin" a formal review of eBay’s planned acquisition of fashion resale site Depop, which is geared towards Gen-Z. The Competition and Markets Authority said that it had closed its invitation to comment. Interested parties were given the chance to inform the regulator about the impact of the proposed transaction on competition in the UK. eBay announced that it would be buying Depop, a Depop-like service from Etsy in February for $1.2 billion. The purchase is expected to conclude this month. The deal will help eBay reach out to younger shoppers, and strengthen its position within the rapidly growing resale apparel?market. Etsy will focus on its core marketplace of handmade and vintage goods in pursuit of a turnaround. The CMA stated that the deadline for its first phase of investigation was set at August 6. After this date, it would decide whether or not to approve a deal. Etsy and eBay have not responded to requests for comment. Reporting by Prerna Behdi, Zaheer Kachwala and Yadarisa Shabbong in Bengaluru. Editing by Sonia Cheema & Kevin Liffey
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Peru's presidential vote tightens, stocks dip, as count enters second day
On Monday, the leftist Roberto 'Sanchez' was closing in on conservative Keiko?Fujimori in Peru’s presidential race. This sent markets and mining stocks lower as the official counting continued into its second day. Fujimori has lost ground to Sanchez after 93% of the votes have been counted. Sanchez has gained ground in Peru's rural areas as the votes continue to be counted. Sanchez has promised a major overhaul of Peru's economy, which has proven resilient despite the political turmoil in the country. Shares of Peruvian firms listed in the United States are down. Miner Buenaventura dropped 3% while?Credicorp fell 4.8%. Intercorp Financial Services dropped 2.8%, while iShares MSCI Peru & Global Exposure ETF fell 1.4%. Sanchez proposes reforming mining concessions in addition to reforming the Constitution. Peru is a world leader in gold, silver, and zinc production. Fujimori was slightly ahead in the exit polls and initial results but this lead diminished as the count neared its end. Ipsos' early poll, which accurately predicted previous races, shows Sanchez leading with 50.3% to Fujimori’s 49.7%. Ipsos said that the outcome was too close to call. Peru's ONPE electoral authorities said that a "full count" was expected to be finished by July. This result is similar to the runoff in 2021, when Fujimori and Pedro Castillo were able to finish?roughly 50% to 49.9%?and the announcement took weeks. Reporting by Alexander Villegas and Marco Aquino; Additional reporting by Lucinda Elliot; Editing and editing by Louise Heavens and Emelia Sithole Matarise; Alex Richardson
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All the M&A transactions in Italy since 2025
Intesa Sanpaolo’s bid to acquire smaller rival Monte dei Paschi di Siena will be the biggest and most transformative deal for Italian banks. The following is a list of the completed and attempted transactions which have'shaken up the sector? since the beginning of 2025. 1. INTESA SANPAOLO – MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA (MPS) – UNIPOL – BPER – BANCO BPM Intesa said on Monday that it's unsolicited EUR30.6 bn ($35 bn) cash-and-share offer for MPS will create the second largest lender in the Eurozone, placing Italy’s top bank behind Spain’s Banco Santander based on market value. Intesa will sell Unipol approximately half of the MPS network that it will receive as a result of the acquisition. The network will be combined with BPER in order to create a new bank operating under the MPS name. Intesa’s bid appears to have marginalized Banco?BPM which had on Sunday invited MPS in a "merger of equals". BPM is primarily owned by France's Credit Agricole with a 20% share. 2. ?UNICREDIT – COMMERZBANK UniCredit, who stayed away from Italian M&A after a failed bid for Banco BPM in Italy, announced last week that it had increased its direct shareholding?in Germany’s Commerzbank, to 34.4%. The company was pursuing a hostile takeover bid against strong German opposition. Milanese bank, second largest in Italy, began merger talks with Commerzbank in September 2024 after buying 9% of the German counterpart and signaling it was willing to take more. 3. CF+?BANCA SISTEMA Banca CF+, a speciality lender backed by Elliott, completed a EUR145 million offer in March for Banca Sistema. 4. MPS – MEDIOBANCA MPS acquired Mediobanca in September of last year for EUR16 billion, becoming the largest investor in Generali, an asset highly prized in Italian finance. This deal from a bank that was bailed out in 2017 by the government and reprivatised between 2023-2024 turned MPS to a major M&A player. 5. BANCA IFIS – ILLIMITY Venetian IFIS has completed a EUR298 million cash-and shares offer in August 2025 for Illimity. This digital?bank was founded by Corrado Passera, a veteran banker and former minister of industry. It was delisted later from the Milan bourse. 6. BPER – BANCA POPULARE DI SONDRIO In July 2025, Italy's fourth largest bank completed a EUR5.4billion cash-and-shares offer for the smaller counterpart based in northern city Sondrio. They called it a defensive measure dictated by the accelerating consolidation. The main shareholder of both banks,?Unipol Insurance, played an important role. 7. UNICREDIT BANCO BPM In July 2025, Italy's second largest bank backed out of its EUR15 billion all-share bid for Banco BPM. The reason given was that the government had set conditions to complete the deal. UniCredit's bid was made in November 2024. 8. BANCO ANIMA HOLDING Banco BPM bid on Anima Holding in April 2025, a EUR1.8-billion acquisition. 9. MEDIOBANCA BANCA GENERALI In an unsuccessful attempt to block MPS' bid for Banca Generali, Mediobanca made a EUR6.3 billion all-shares offer in April 2025. In August, it failed to gain approval from shareholders. 10. BANCA GENERALI – INTERMONTE Banca Generali acquired Intermonte in January 2025 for EUR98.2 millions to enhance its investment banking capabilities and add corporate finance advisory services to its wealth management offering.
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Soaring fertilizer prices dim Brazilian farmers' edge over US rivals
B razil’s cheap and abundant land has helped its farmers create large, low-cost farms. This allowed them to take away export markets from U.S. Farmers who were hurt by China switching suppliers as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff wars. Brazil has become a major agricultural powerhouse, despite the fact that U.S. farm land hasn't grown in this century. ?But South America's edge will be tested by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which is sending fertilizer -prices soaring. Since the beginning of the war, a third of all fertilizer flow has been trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Brazil is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers while the U.S. relies on its own production. Many Brazilian farmers have reduced their fertilizer purchases. Experts in the industry say that Brazil's farmers will still be in trouble even if the war ends tomorrow. They are already saddled with thousands acres of farmland that produce diminishing returns, or even losses. They are beginning to accumulate significant amounts of debt. Many U.S. Farmers have enough land to produce good yields even if they don't apply fertilizer for an entire year. Few Brazilian farmers are able to do that. The issue of varying growing seasons is also a concern. Brazil's spring planting begins in September, so its farmers are exposed to the soaring prices of fertilizers. The U.S. Farmers were almost finished with their purchases at the time of war. Brazilian farmers are not eligible for government bailouts and generous support programs. Murilo RabeloMartinsPereira, a Goias farmer in central Brazil, said: "Profitability is just not there." Everyone is currently rethinking expansion. Pereira, 34 years old, farms 800 hectares of soybeans, tomatoes, and corn. The rising production costs, he said, make expanding his farm too risky. He has been offered more land to lease. Purdue University agricultural economic Joana Colussi is a Brazilian-born economist. She said, "We'll definitely not see the same trend" in agricultural growth. She anticipates that growth will slow, at least temporarily as farmers invest more in fertilizer, fuel and seeds, and less in expansion. HISTORIC GROWTH China's booming agricultural demand prompted Brazil to begin its historic growth in agriculture. Brazil and the U.S. were forced to compete for vast areas of grassland that had been used for cattle grazing. Brazil has always been the winner. Brazil has been among the biggest winners. In 2000, U.S. sales of soybeans to China were nearly double Brazil's. By the end of 2025, Brazil will have sold twice as much soybeans to China. Brazil's expansion was based on the acquisition of cheap, vast land. Many of the soils are degraded today because farmers move to new plots when their old ones fallow instead of investing in soil health. DANGEROUS LAND, SEASONALITY Large-scale industrial agriculture in Brazil is a costly endeavor due to the degraded land. It requires large quantities of pesticides, gm seed, and other expensive biological inputs. Brazil is not the only country where farmers are struggling to make ends meet. You can survive a lower or even no fertilizer application if you have a better soil. "You can handle a shock such as this better", said Saswato das, global head for corporate affairs at Syngenta, a producer of seeds and pesticides. Even if farmers in the United States skip a season when they apply key fertilizers such as potash or diammonium-phosphate (DAP), they can still achieve average yields. This year, thousands of farmers have taken this approach. Potash and DAP are only used for one season on many Brazilian farms. Marshall Lee Davis, a farmer of peanuts and cotton who lives in Georgia, the southern U.S., says that U.S. farmers "just skimp out" on DAP. The price of DAP has roughly doubled since Iran's war began. Davis stated that even U.S. farmers who are able to skip one application of fertilizer were worried that they would be hit by higher prices in the fall if they begin buying before their spring planting 2027 next March. Since the Iran War began, Brazilian farmers have faced high fertilizer prices, as they still need to complete their spring planting for 2026 this September, and even plant a second crop in early 2027. Murphy Campbell, an Expana analyst, said that North American farmers were in a much better position than Brazilian farmers because of seasonality. FERTILIZER, FARMER PROTECTIONS Brazil imports a large amount of DAP as well as nitrogen-based urea – the most commonly used fertilizer in the world. Petrobras, Brazil's state oil company, is reopening some of its less profitable fertilizer plants that were idled by former president Jair Bolsonaro. It hopes to meet 35% the country's needs for nitrogen fertilizer in the coming years. The price of corn and soybeans, despite high fertilizer prices, has not increased much since the beginning of the war. This is because large harvests over the past few years have led to global stock builds up. The result has been a squeeze on farmer margins around the world, particularly for those who depend on fertilizer imports. Campbell, from Expana, stated that Brazil's soybean growers had purchased, as of late may, about 50% of their total fertilizer needs for 2026/27. Campbell noted that "in the past, over 60% of fertilizer is purchased by late May". Farmers with increasing debt will suffer from lower yields, lower profits and even outright losses if they reduce their fertilizer applications. Bruno Fonseca is an analyst at Rabobank Brazil. He said that the farmers of Brazil are "overleveraged". Expana's Campbell says that the price of fertilizer will remain high for at least six more months, even if a peace agreement is reached in the Middle East. Pereira, a Brazilian farmer, has to make tough decisions because of the grim future. He said, "We planned to replace our harvesters this year. They are very old." "We decided to not go ahead."
Asia stocks show a tentative rebound, but bonds are under pressure
The Asian stock markets tried to stabilize on Tuesday. Oil prices fell after Israel and Iran announced that they would halt their attacks against each other for the time being. Ever-hopeful investors, however, bought up the latest dip in semiconductor stocks.
Analysts warned that the rebound was only a small one, with 60% of S&P 500 ending in the red over night even though the index as a whole edged upward. In early trading, share futures on Wall Street and Europe also fell.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and higher bond yields continue to challenge equity valuations.
Analysts at BofA stated that "inflation is still sticky enough to cause 46 out of 68 central banks in the world to exceed their targets. This helps explain why bond markets are repricing for tighter policies, as well as why private credit and long-duration assets are suffering, along with several EM currencies.
Our Global Breadth Rule indicates that nearly half of the equity markets are already overbought. Leading the way is Korea, Taiwan, and Finland.
South Korea's stock market rose 3.0% after plunging more than 8% Monday following a series of spectacular gains that left retail investors with stretched margin positions and valuations.
The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3% after falling 3.9% in the previous session, while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan increased 0.9%.
EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all fell?0.6% in Europe.
Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell by 0.3%. Oracle's results on Wednesday will be the next major test for technology.
Price Increases for Rate Hikes
Apple shares did not receive any immediate boost from the long-delayed AI revamp of Siri that was unveiled at its Worldwide Developers Conference.
OpenAI, a ChatGPT maker, filed a confidential application for an initial public offering in the United States on Monday. It joined rival Anthropic and a rush of equity financing worth a trillion dollars.
The bond markets struggled as investors priced in the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes after the positive May U.S. Payrolls Report. The data on U.S. Consumer Prices due Wednesday is expected to show that energy costs continued to push headline inflation higher in the month of May.
Futures prices indicate that a Fed rate hike could happen as early as October. A quarter-point increase is nearly?fully priced in for December.
The yield on two-year Treasury bonds remained at 4,158% after reaching their highest level since early 2025, at 4,201%.
The markets are fully priced in for the European Central Bank to raise the rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.25% when it meets on Thursday. By the end of the year, the rate will be at 2.5% or even 2.75%.
The dollar remained stable at 160.17, just below the overnight high of 160.395. The next bullish target is the April 160.725 high, but investors are wary that a break might prompt a new intervention by?Japanese officials.
The euro was at $1.1527 after hitting $1.1500, a low of nine weeks, overnight. Meanwhile, the pound climbed off a trough of three weeks to $1.3334.
Brent crude fell 0.2% overnight to $94.08 per barrel after reaching as high as $98,000, and U.S. crude dropped 0.3% to $91.06 per barrel.
Gold fell 0.3%, to $4,316 per ounce. It had touched a two month low at $4,268.39 an ounce on Monday. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Wayne Cole)
(source: Reuters)