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US stocks and bonds rise after soft jobs report, yen recovers

The global stock market is on track for its strongest weekly gain since May, after a weaker than expected U.S. employment report eased concerns of an impending Federal Reserve rate increase. Meanwhile, strong earnings and AI enthusiasm overshadowed worries about the Iran War. U.S. shares?rose Friday, led primarily by consumer discretionary and technology stocks, while treasury yields declined, reflecting the waning expectations that Fed rates will be raised at its next meeting. SpaceX, which was up 14% on Friday, 19% on the week, despite the fact that a large number of shares had been released on Thursday, as well as Tesla, were among the major gainers at midday. The Nasdaq rose by 1.3% at midday, while the dollar dropped. This gave the Japanese yen some relief. The yen rose to 157.70 against the dollar, after previously approaching 159. This level is widely regarded as a possible trigger for policy interventions.

The MSCI All-World Index?has increased 2.4% in the past week, which is the highest gain for three months. It was stable on Friday. Europe's STOXX600 index was up 0.6% for the day, and 2% in the past week. This was largely due to gains in healthcare and technology stocks. U.S. payroll data showed that employment dropped by 23,000, contrary to expectations from a poll which predicted an increase of 80,000. Analysts say the data gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady next month as it assesses upcoming economic indicators including the U.S. Inflation report next week. Lindsay Rosner is the head of fixed-income investments at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, New York. She said, "History does not repeat itself, but it can rhyme." For the third time in a row, the July jobs data showed a loss of momentum during mid-summer. The incoming inflation data is the ultimate arbiter. However, slowing job?growth supports a hold in September."

TRADERS DOUBT A FED RATE INCREASE Money markets were evenly divided about the prospects of an increase in the Fed rate next month, before the report on payrolls. The implied probability of an increase dropped from 55% to 40% after the payrolls report. The report this morning cast doubt on the notion that the job market is as solid as many people had claimed, said Chris Zaccarelli. Chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Fed cannot focus solely on inflation because of the weak jobs report. The Fed must balance full employment with price stability, which makes it more likely that the next meeting will be on hold. All things considered, this is good news for the stock markets. It's one of those situations where 'bad news can be good news': the Fed's decision to put the economy on hold could mean good news for stocks. The conflict in the Middle East erupted again after Yemeni Houthis, who are Iran-aligned, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer. Riyadh warned of imminent coordinated attacks by the Houthis, Iran-backed Iraqi militias and other groups.

Brent crude futures reversed their course on Friday, falling 0.7% to $82 per barrel as investors ignored Saudi Arabia's warnings. Iran is reportedly reviewing a draft bill which would prohibit U.S. vessels, Israeli ships and other "hostiles" from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The semi-official Fars News Agency reported this on Thursday citing a legislator. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20% of the value of a ship’s cargo for violations. Treasury yields dropped after the weak jobs report. However, they recovered from their lows of early morning at noon Eastern time. The yield on the 2-year note fell by 5 basis points to 4.20%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year note dropped by 2 basis points to 4.64%. The dollar index fell 0.3%, to 99.61, as rate expectations grew. This boosted the yen. The dollar and gold moved in opposite directions this week, with the U.S. dollar hovering near its six-week lows while gold rose to its highest level in six weeks. Bullion gained almost 7% in the past week. This is its best weekly performance since mid January, when it reached a record of $5,594. The last increase was 2.6%, at $4 414 per ounce. Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney. Alex Richardson and Colin Barr edited by Mark Potter, Sanjeev miglani, and Sanjeev.

(source: Reuters)