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Gold reaches a seven-week high after weak U.S. job data denies rate hike bets
Gold surged on Friday, reaching its highest level in'seven' weeks, after an unexpected decline in U.S. Non-farm Payrolls for July dashed hopes of rate hikes and put bullion in line for its best seven-month-old week. Gold spot jumped 2.6%, to $4348.87 an ounce at 09:09 am EDT (1308 GMT), after gaining over 3% and reaching its highest level since June 2017. Bullion prices have risen?over 7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since January 19. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2.5% to $4408.00. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 jobs last month, following a June increase of 20,000 jobs which was downwardly revised. The economists surveyed by? The economists polled by? David Meger of High Ridge Futures, Director of Metals Trading, said that the Fed is less likely to increase interest rates at their next meeting because of the weaker than expected jobs data. Meger said that the falling energy prices and the less likely Fed rate hike could all lead to a weaker US dollar and higher gold prices. According to LSEG, the rate futures market has now priced in only a 43.9% probability of Fed tightening next month, compared to 57% just before the jobs report. The probability that the Fed would hold rates in September rose from 43.2% to 60.4%, according to LSEG data. Gold is more attractive than other assets that generate yields because it does not generate interest. UBS said that it expects the gold price to reach $5,000 per ounce by?the first six months of 2027', in a Friday note. U.S. president Donald Trump told reporters that the 'war with Iran' would end'soon. Silver spot gained 4.5%, to $64,26 per ounce. Platinum rose 1.4%, to $1753,09, while palladium increased 0.4%, to $1375.75. All three metals are headed to weekly gains. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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Poland's former Orlen managers face trial over oil deal losses
Prosecutors announced a 25-year sentence for three former managers of Polish refiner Orlen, and one of its subsidiaries. They were indicted over crude oil contracts that resulted in losses of almost $400 million. Polish prosecutors are investigating the $378 million in prepayments that Orlen made for Venezuelan crude oil and other goods but never received. The defendants are accused of failing to supervise and protect the assets of Orlen Trading Switzerland and Orlen Trading Switzerland by entering into contracts for the purchase crude oil that were detrimental to both companies, prosecutors claim. The defendants, identified by Polish privacy laws as Michal r, a formerly member of Orlen’s?management council; Marcin O., a formerly member of OTS’ management board; and Filip W., a?former executive director of Orlen &?OTS, have all denied wrongdoing. The investigation into the former OTS head Samer 'A. who was arrested in?the United Arab Emirates? last year is ongoing, according to prosecutors. Poland has asked for his extradition. The four?were unable to be reached for comment. Orlen didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Anna Koper)
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Copper prices above $14,000 for the first time since May due to supply concerns
The price of copper remained above $14,000 on Friday, as tighter inventories and?supply worries put the metal in a position to have its best week in nearly three months. Traders?awaited the news from the?mining panel convened by the?U.S. Donald Trump, President of the United States. In official open outcry, benchmark three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $14.090 per metric ton. The copper price was set to end the week with a 2.2% gain, its biggest weekly gain since the week of?May 8th. LME copper reached a six-month peak of $14,369.50 after reports that the Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate with immediate effect. The news "confirmed an already 'bullish market background characterised by low inventory, tight concentrate availability, and ongoing supply disruptions", ING stated in a report. Copper stocks available on the LME The cash to three-month spread decreased to?92,900 tonnes, the lowest level since January. In a?severe backwardation of $119 per ton, which indicates near-term tightness. Backwardation is the structure of the market whereby prices for immediate delivery are higher than those further ahead. Shanghai Futures Exchange Copper Stocks The weekly total is 70,116 tonnes, up by 1.1% compared to the more than 2-year-old low of the previous week. COMEX stocks of copper are also rising in the U.S. The metal flow into the country is a factor that has boosted imports for the 34th day in a row, reaching 654,571 tonnes. According to a source familiar with the event's planning, Trump will announce a few deals and memorandums?of?understanding. Aluminium rose 0.6% to $3.279 per ton, its highest level since?June 23. Zinc fell 0.9% to $3.730, after reaching a?four-year high on Thursday. Zinc spreads remain steeply in reverse. Aluminium prices have fallen to less than $60 per tonne. On Tuesday, the price of the?to 3 from up to $45?was reduced. Lead increased 0.3% at $1,889.50 per ton. Nickel rose 1% to $15,930, and tin increased 0.2% to $56,200. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Joyjeet Das and Dylan Duan Additional reporting by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan)
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Overcrowding in Sri Lanka jails causes riots that leave three dead and 23 injured
Wijepala: * Special forces and police quelled disturbances in two facilities As inmates were being moved from rooftops, heavy police and riot units were deployed. * * * * *?Government plans to change judicial tenure in order to reduce 1 million-case backlog By Uditha Jayasinghe COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO 7th August. Three prisoners were killed in two prison riots and at least '23 other prisoners? were injured. Unrest continues in the overcrowded prisons of Sri Lanka. A riot began at the New Magazine Prison in Colombo late Thursday night. One prisoner died and 10 were injured. Ananda Wijepala, Minister of Public Security, told the parliament that a second riot took place at Kuruwita Prison, located about 80 kilometers (50 miles), resulting in two deaths and 14 injuries. Wijepala stated that the police and special forces had brought both disturbances to a halt. Police sources said that the unrest in a?open prison? located about 40km (25miles) away from Colombo was also contained when police used tear gas on protesting 'inmates. All three prisons had heavy police and riot squads deployed. Prisoners who had "climbed on rooftops" or moved to open areas, were then returned to their cells. The overcrowding crisis is widespread in the prison system of the country, where more than 41,000 prisoners are housed in 22 prisons designed to hold 11,000 people. Over three quarters of the inmates are on remand awaiting trial. Many have drug-related charges. We have now 'controlled the situation. Security is not a concern. Taken together, it seems that these incidents were planned and an attempt was made at sabotage. Wijepala told lawmakers that we could only comment further following a 'comprehensive investigation. In early July, ten prison officials and twenty prisoners were killed in two days' worth of fighting in a prison located in the coastal town of Negombo. This is about 35 km north of Colombo. A riot occurred last weekend in Mahara prison, which is located about 14 km north of Colombo. One inmate was killed and many others injured. Sri Lanka plans to amend its constitution in order to extend the tenure of superior court judges by two years. This is part of an effort to reduce prisoner numbers and clear up a backlog more than one million court cases. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Uditha Jayasinghe)
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People flock to the sea, but they can't escape heat in northeast China
Heatwaves in northeast China have caused a number of tourists to flock to the sea to cool off. On Friday, beachgoers of all ages dotted the water in brightly colored floats along the pebbled?beach at Fujiazhuang Park, in Dalian, a city known for its fresh seafood, Yellow Sea coastline views, and coastal attractions. Climate change has caused China to experience more heatwaves. The latest heatwave has hit northeastern China, and the Korean Peninsula. South Korea declared an emergency. Dalian, according to the Chinese agricultural calendar's first day of autumn, recorded a high temperature of 37 degrees Celsius on Friday. According to data collected by the National Forecaster from 1981 to 2010, this is almost 10 degrees Celsius higher than the average August high. "Originally, we thought Dalian would cool off because it is in the northeast. It?turned out that it was hotter than in Shanxi, where we're from," said a mother of two aged 44, who went by the name Miao. Shanxi is a province located west of Beijing. She was wearing a face mask, a wide-brimmed cap, and a jacket that protected her from the sun. She also said she brought medicine to treat heatstroke. Cao, an 62-year old retiree, who took his grandson to the beach said that summer in Dalian wasn't as he remembered. "This year is much warmer than usual." In previous years the sea breeze kept it cool and was very comfortable. The sun is a little'scorching this year. State Grid Corporation of China reported this week that the high temperatures in northern, northeastern, and eastern China had pushed up electricity demand to record levels, as residents turned up their air conditioners. "In the past, we were able to manage without air conditioning for only two weeks and sometimes we didn't need it," said 57-year-old?Feng at a waterfront location?where locals dive off a metal diving boards into the sea. This year we just can't stand it and must use air conditioning. It's essential." Reporting by Liz Lee and Shubing Wang, Editing by Peter Graff
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ROI-Weekend Reads: Inflation heat, green steel, bond angst
Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads?reports on what the Open Interest team is reading, watching and listening to every Friday. This week, the picks focus on America's reliance upon Chinese goods, U.S.?overheating?, geothermal energy, green steel, and risks emanating from bond market. We're reading this 'weekend'... MIKE DOLAN. ROI Finance & Markets columnist. Mary Lovely and Christine Wan from Washington's Peterson Institute discuss how U.S. Policymakers have not made much progress in reducing America’s dependency on Chinese goods and services despite many years of effort. Direct trade declined sharply over the seven-year period from 2010 to 2024. However, direct and indirect trade, including goods with 'Chinese components', decreased by only 2 percentage points. This raises the question whether the new tariffs will also have a limited impact. CLYDE RUSSELL is a ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist. This insightful article from nonprofit news organization Dialogue Earth questions whether the Iran war has slowed down the transition to green steel. It appears the conflict could be a short term?negative, but potentially a long-term positive. JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: It would be a small miracle if the elevated U.S. Inflation returns to "target" without tighter fiscal or monetary policy. Why? The U.S. is at risk of an overheating economy due to its overstimulation. Mike Dolan, ROI's Global Energy Transition Columnist, explains in a compelling way why this is so, in light of the slowing GDP, chaos in politics, and global conflict. GAVIN MAGUIRE is the ROI Global Energy Transition columnist. This report by the Energy Transitions Commission argues that geothermal energy could solve multiple global energy challenges, thanks to recent advances in drilling techniques and successful pilot projects. This podcast by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies examines the impact of the Iran War on the global economy and energy sector. We're watching... JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI markets columnist: The world market has experienced a seismic shift in the last few weeks. The highest U.S. bonds yields have been seen since 2007. Intervention to support the Japanese currency, a crash in South Korea's AI dominated?stock markets, and Wall Street grinding up to new heights. They may seem isolated, but these events are interconnected. In the latest episode of Wealthion's investing podcast "Could Treasury yields Break the AI Boom?," Jesse Felder, an investor and financial writer, explains and explores why wider market turmoil is possible. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. The opinions expressed do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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INDIA RUPEE Rupee rises on a weekly basis; traders remain cautious as oil companies and US payrolls loom.
The Indian rupee was essentially unchanged on Friday, and has firmed up modestly over the past week. This is due to central bank intervention that helped ease pressure from rising oil prices. The labour market report. The rupee ended the session at 95.2075 to the dollar. This is a slight increase from its previous close of 95.22, but only 0.2% higher than it was last week. The price of oil rose by 0.3% on Friday to $82.7, as concerns about the reopening of Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian sanctions against vessels that it considers hostile or in breach of its proposed rules led to the increase. The Middle East conflict continues to be a major overhang for the markets. This has led traders to avoid holding positions going into the weekend. The rupee was kept on a 'tight leash on Friday by dollar sales made by state-run bankers, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. Its intra-day fluctuation fell to a new multi-month low. The central bank has more ammunition to defend rupees after strong inflows as part of measures to strengthen India’s balance-of-payments. State Bank of India is India's largest bank. It has raised $6 billion in a scheme designed to attract foreign exchange deposits. Later on in the day the focus will be shifted to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data for the previous Month. The U.S.?job market is expected to have improved in July. This will reassure that the labour markets remained strong and allow the Federal Reserve to continue to focus on inflation. In a recent note,?ING stated that "our call?remains a USD weakness over the next two months because we expect the Fed to'stay on hold' this year." According to LSEG, interest?rate futures are pricing about 30 basis point rate increases for the rest of 2026. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Sonia Cheema, and Jaspreetkalra)
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India's Hindalco reports a profit increase on the back of higher metal prices
India's Hindalco Industries reported a?"rise" in its first-quarter profits on Friday, thanks to higher aluminum prices and an accelerated production ramp-up. Aditya Birla Group's?firm is one of India's largest aluminium and cobalt producers. The consolidated net income for the three-month period ended June 30 increased by 75.1% to 70.13 billion rupies ($736.12 millions). The Middle East conflict, which has blocked almost 9% global supply, caused the aluminium prices to rise?about 45 percent year-over-year during the second quarter of the year. This was the fourth consecutive quarter that metal prices improved. According to a 'Jefferies Note, the spot copper price also rose?about 40 percent on an annual basis. Mining companies typically enjoy higher profits when commodity prices are higher. Novelis, the company's aluminium-recycling unit, restarted its Oswego plant in New York in early June following fires that occurred in September and November last year. Novelis, a company that supplies rolled aluminum to beverage can manufacturers and auto makers, accounts for?over 60 percent of Hindalco’s revenue. Hindalco’s total revenue from operations rose by 32.1%, to 848.25 bn rupees. Novelis grew at a rate of 35.7%. Aluminum upstream and the copper segment of the firm grew by 43.6% and 15.8% respectively. This was due to higher metal prices and increased volumes. The company's total expenses grew by 25.4% to 741.96 billion rupies, due to an increase of 37% in the cost of materials.
Oil and stocks are both shaky ahead of the US jobs report
Investor optimism about robust earnings growth, and excitement over AI, helped to offset concerns about the conflict in the Middle East.
MSCI's All-World Index has increased 2.4% in the last week, the most in the past three months. On Friday, it was stable, but shares of drugmakers and tech companies boosted Europe's STOXX600 by 0.6% for the day, and 2% over the course of the week.
Investors are now focused on the U.S. Payrolls Report due later that day. This could be crucial for interest rate forecasts. Forecasts predict a gain of 80,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 57,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.
TRADERS SPLIT OVER FED RATE INCREASE
The money markets indicate that traders are divided over whether or not the Federal Reserve will increase rates next month. Friday's payrolls data could tip the balance one way or the other.
Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economics, said that yields and inflation are still the main risks for stocks. A strong NFP will reinforce higher prices and increase pressure on rates.
Feroli added that equities could also respond positively to the softness of the non-farm payrolls data, as yields are expected to ease and expectations will shift toward a more dovish policy.
Analysts said that given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwillingness to provide any guidance as to what to expect from monetary policy, the employment data may cause a greater impact than usual on the market.
"An extremely poor or strong print can have a greater impact on prices than it did in the past, when the Fed's options were more clear. "Vacuums have to be filled and the market will always choose itself as a solution," Caxton strategist David Stritch stated.
Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.6% on the U.S. stock market. Cloudflare shares rose 16% on Friday morning, after soaring 18% following Thursday's close. This was due to the cloud services provider?s positive forecast.
OIL CLIMBS AGAIN
The conflict in the Middle East erupted again after Yemeni Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil-supplier. Riyadh warned that coordinated attacks between the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militas would be imminent.
Brent crude futures reversed their course on Friday, falling 0.7% to $82 per barrel as investors ignored Saudi Arabia's warnings.
Iran is meanwhile reviewing a preliminary bill which would prohibit U.S. and?Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostiles" from transiting Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency on Thursday. It cited a lawmaker. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20% of the value of a ship’s cargo for violating proposed restrictions.
Treasury yields remained essentially unchanged as trading activity was subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the employment data. The 2-year note yield remained at 4.243% while the 10-year rate traded at 4.67%.
The U.S. dollar remained steady at 158.3 yen to the US dollar. The U.S. employment report could determine the next moves in the yen, after last week's historic currency?intervention from Japan and the U.S.
The dollar has been trading at six-week lows, while gold is rising. Gold has increased by almost 7% in the past week. This is its highest performance since mid-January when it reached a record of $5,594. Last seen at $4,322, it was up 2%. (Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney; editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kate Mayberry in Sydney, Susan Fenton, Alex Richardson, and Kate Mayberry)
(source: Reuters)