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INDIA RUPEE Rupee rises on a weekly basis; traders remain cautious as oil companies and US payrolls loom.
The Indian rupee was essentially unchanged on Friday, and has firmed up modestly over the past week. This is due to central bank intervention that helped ease pressure from rising oil prices. The labour market report. The rupee ended the session at 95.2075 to the dollar. This is a slight increase from its previous close of 95.22, but only 0.2% higher than it was last week. The price of oil rose by 0.3% on Friday to $82.7, as concerns about the reopening of Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian sanctions against vessels that it considers hostile or in breach of its proposed rules led to the increase. The Middle East conflict continues to be a major overhang for the markets. This has led traders to avoid holding positions going into the weekend. The rupee was kept on a 'tight leash on Friday by dollar sales made by state-run bankers, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. Its intra-day fluctuation fell to a new multi-month low. The central bank has more ammunition to defend rupees after strong inflows as part of measures to strengthen India’s balance-of-payments. State Bank of India is India's largest bank. It has raised $6 billion in a scheme designed to attract foreign exchange deposits. Later on in the day the focus will be shifted to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data for the previous Month. The U.S.?job market is expected to have improved in July. This will reassure that the labour markets remained strong and allow the Federal Reserve to continue to focus on inflation. In a recent note,?ING stated that "our call?remains a USD weakness over the next two months because we expect the Fed to'stay on hold' this year." According to LSEG, interest?rate futures are pricing about 30 basis point rate increases for the rest of 2026. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Sonia Cheema, and Jaspreetkalra)
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India's Hindalco reports a profit increase on the back of higher metal prices
India's Hindalco Industries reported a?"rise" in its first-quarter profits on Friday, thanks to higher aluminum prices and an accelerated production ramp-up. Aditya Birla Group's?firm is one of India's largest aluminium and cobalt producers. The consolidated net income for the three-month period ended June 30 increased by 75.1% to 70.13 billion rupies ($736.12 millions). The Middle East conflict, which has blocked almost 9% global supply, caused the aluminium prices to rise?about 45 percent year-over-year during the second quarter of the year. This was the fourth consecutive quarter that metal prices improved. According to a 'Jefferies Note, the spot copper price also rose?about 40 percent on an annual basis. Mining companies typically enjoy higher profits when commodity prices are higher. Novelis, the company's aluminium-recycling unit, restarted its Oswego plant in New York in early June following fires that occurred in September and November last year. Novelis, a company that supplies rolled aluminum to beverage can manufacturers and auto makers, accounts for?over 60 percent of Hindalco’s revenue. Hindalco’s total revenue from operations rose by 32.1%, to 848.25 bn rupees. Novelis grew at a rate of 35.7%. Aluminum upstream and the copper segment of the firm grew by 43.6% and 15.8% respectively. This was due to higher metal prices and increased volumes. The company's total expenses grew by 25.4% to 741.96 billion rupies, due to an increase of 37% in the cost of materials.
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Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign joint defense deal amid regional turmoil
Sources say that a pact will be signed in Mecca this Friday Erdogan, Sharif, and Munir the army chief are scheduled to meet Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman * An agreement was reached after nearly a year-long negotiation, as reported in January. (Adds context and details throughout). By Timour Azhari Ariba?Shahid, and Tuvan Gumrukcu RIYADH/KARACHI/ANKARA, Aug 7 - Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will sign a joint defence agreement in Mecca on Friday, sources with ?knowledge of the matter said, amid regional ?turmoil with Gulf states coming under fire from Iran after it ?was attacked ?by the U.S. and Israel. The pact cements the growing group of Sunni Muslim states that are allied with the United States. However, it is not clear what each state will do or how this might impact the Middle East crisis. The deal was confirmed by a Turkish official after two regional sources who had direct knowledge of the issue said it would be signed Friday. A second regional source stated that it was unclear whether the agreement will also be announced publicly on Friday. As the United States struggles with regional threats, the three nations are increasingly concerned about the Middle?East chaos as well as the role of a revolutionary Shi'ite Iran. Turkey is NATO's second largest military. Saudi Arabia is the largest Gulf state and home to Islam's holiest places. It's also one of the top oil exporters in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, is the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation. Shehbaz sharif, Pakistani prime minister, and Asim Munir (powerful army chief) arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday. They performed the Umrah Pilgrimage to Mecca. Tayyip Erdoan, the Turkish president, left for Jeddah Friday. The two will be meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman whose country was repeatedly attacked by Iran as well as by Tehran's Houthi ally in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq since the war began in February. The conflict has exposed Gulf state security vulnerabilities, and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the war, a fifth of global oil and LNG transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The pact was reached after nearly a full year of negotiations. In January, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara preferred a regional security platform which would promote stability and cooperation. A Saudi official said that the existing Saudi-Pakistani agreement treats any attack on one as an attack against both, and includes "all military methods". Pakistan has avoided becoming militarily involved in the Iran War by attempting to mediate instead. The Pakistani government and military did not respond immediately to requests for comments, but the foreign ministry confirmed the visit to Saudi Arabia as "consolidating ties" with the kingdom. Army chief Munir is responsible for Pakistan's foreign policy and security. The Saudi Arabian government did not respond immediately to a comment request. PACT BUILDING ON LONG-STANDING MULTILITARY TALES The Middle East is in flames since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 on Israel. Nearly every country in the area has experienced cross-border attacks, missiles or drone fire. Both Turkey and Pakistan on the border of the Middle East have avoided direct attacks but are eager to settle conflicts that threaten both their security and economic well-being. Saudi Arabia has suffered more severe consequences from the Middle East conflict than any other country. Its oil exports, ambitious development plans, and its security under U.S. umbrella have all been put at risk. The signing of the agreement on Friday in Mecca will give a symbolic boost to the pact, which builds upon long-standing bilateral military relations between the three countries. Pakistan has been providing training and technical assistance to Saudi Arabian forces for decades. Turkey and Pakistan have also exchanged training aircraft, warships, etc. Riyadh has agreed to buy Turkish drones from Ankara in 2023. This is Ankara's largest defence export contract. In May, it was reported that Pakistan had sent 8,000 troops as well as fighter jets drones and air defence systems to the kingdom. It has also pursued a wider Gulf security relationship. In July, it was reported that Kuwait had begun negotiations over an expanded agreement in exchange for energy investment and cooperation. (By Ariba, Timour, Daren, and Maha El-Dahan, with writing by Angus McDowall, editing by Sharon Singleton.)
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Thyssenkrupp owners vote on materials spinoff in latest restructuring move
Thyssenkrupp shareholders will vote on Friday,?Feb. 14, on the proposal to spin off the materials trading division of the German conglomerate, which is its largest sales division. This is the latest step taken by the German conglomerate in order to streamline its complex structure. Thyssenkrupp would continue its overhaul by spinning off 49% of tk-accelis, which is a wholesaler of raw materials like steel and alloys and operates warehouses for them. Separate listings of the?hydrogen and defence divisions were made in recent years. Investors will vote on the matter at an "extraordinary general meeting" later on Friday. The move could result in tk Accelis listing separately at the end of October with Thyssenkrupp maintaining a majority. LEGAL FORMAT IN FOCUS TOP-20?Shareholder DWS said on Friday that it would abstain on voting for the spinoff. It criticized the planned legal format of tk Accelis, which means parent Thyssenkrupp retains far-reaching controls over the subsidiary even though the company is listed separately. "Anyone who wants to take a company public has to be willing to share control and allow independent oversight," said Philipp Weinmann, DWS' corporate governance expert. Analysts at Jefferies believe that tk Accelis, which has around 15,500 employees, is active in 30 countries, and generated sales of EUR11.4 Billion in the last fiscal year, could achieve an enterprise worth of approximately EUR3.6 Billion ($4.2 Billion). At a capital market day held last month, tk Accelis said it aimed to achieve an adjusted margin of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) between 4% and 5%, as opposed to 2% in the fiscal year 2024/2025. Airbus, BP and Volkswagen are among the customers of the tk accelis?business. In June, the company said it was looking for acquisitions, focusing on the fragmented precious-metals market in North America.
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Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan sign joint defense deal amid regional turmoil
Sources say that a pact will be signed in Jeddah this Friday. Erdogan, Sharif, and the army chief Munir are due to meet with Prince Mohammed bin Salman * An agreement follows nearly a year's worth of negotiations, as reported in January By ?Ariba ?Shahid KARACHI/RIYADH. 7 August. Regional sources who have direct knowledge of this matter confirmed that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan would sign a joint defense agreement on Friday. This comes at a period of turmoil in the region, with the Gulf States under attack from?Iran following its attacks by the U.S. The pact?cements the growing grouping of Sunni Muslim powerhouses, but there is no clarity on each state's?commitments. An official from Turkey confirmed that the agreement would be signed. NATO is part of the Turkish government. Saudi Arabia is another U.S. ally and is one of the top oil exporters in the world. It is also the strongest Gulf state. Pakistan is the sole nuclear-armed Muslim nation. The signing will take place in Jeddah, where the Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan and Pakistani Premier Shehbaz Shaif, along with Asim Munir as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are expected to meet. The agreement was reached after nearly a year of talks, as reported in January. It also comes at a time when the Iran War exposes Gulf state's security vulnerabilities, and disrupts shipping of oil, other goods, and key commodities through the Strait of Hormuz. Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign Minister in January, said that Ankara was in favor of a regional security platform to "promote stability and cooperation". A Saudi official told a Saudi official that the existing Saudi-Pakistani agreement treats any?attack against either country as an attack against both, and includes "all military methods". The Pakistani government and military did not respond immediately to requests for comment. The Saudi Arabian government did not respond immediately to a comment request.
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Palm oil prices fall on fears of rising stocks and sluggish sales
The price of Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Friday due to expectations that stockpiles would increase and export demand would be sluggish. However, the contract remains 'on track' for its fourth weekly rise in five week. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange for October delivery had fallen 21 ringgit (0.45%) to 4,665 Ringgit ($1,141.42) per metric ton. This week, the contract has risen by 0.6%. Anilkumar bagani, commodity researcher at Sunvin Group, stated that crude palm oil futures were trading lower due to a combination of factors including?estimates about rising palm oil inventories in Malaysia and weak forward sales for?shipments. According to a survey, Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to reach a five-month peak in July as production growth exceeds demand. On August 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release its demand and supply data for July, while cargo surveyors will publish their palm oil shipment estimates for August 1-10. Oil prices rose amid new concerns about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman proposed banning hostile vessels from the strait, as well as heavily fining anyone who violated this rule. Palm oil is more attractive as a biodiesel feedstock due to the stronger crude?oil?futures?. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active, fell 0.39% while soyoil prices rose 0.2%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.5%. Palm oil monitors the price changes of competing edible oils as they compete for a share of 'the global vegetable oils market. The price of a?palm, the currency used for trade in Malaysia, has remained the same against the U.S. Dollar, resulting in a slight discount to buyers who hold foreign currencies.
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Lanxess's sales exceed estimates due to Middle East disruptions
Lanxess, a specialist chemicals manufacturer, reported a quarterly core profit that was'slightly higher than expected' on Friday. The company benefited from stronger demand, temporary disruptions in supply linked to the Middle East conflict, and a temporary increase in prices. However, it warned there were no signs of an accelerated recovery in its main markets. In a press release, Matthias Zachert, Chief Executive, said that the expected growth was confirmed in the second quarter. The Cologne-based firm?reported earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation pre-exceptionals (EBITDA), of 152 millions euros ($175million) in the second-quarter,?above an analysts' prediction of 150.6 millions euros, in a poll?provided?on its website?. Sales for the quarter rose 6.5%, to 1.56 billion euros, from 1.46 billion euros a year ago. This was also higher than analysts' expectations at 1.54 billion euros. Zachert noted that the company had achieved simultaneous growth in both volumes and prices, for the first year. He cautioned, however, that the improvement does not indicate a sustained turnaround. Zachert stated that "there is no sign of sustained improvement in demand in our core markets and the market conditions are still challenging. We don't expect to see any more economic momentum before the end of the year." The Middle East conflict has disrupted the fuel and feedstock market and increased costs in the chemical industry. Some European producers have benefited from the disruptions in supply, which increased costs for Asian competitors. Customers also began to place reliability above price. Lanxess has confirmed that it will be aiming for an EBITDA of between 450 and 550 millions euros in 2026.
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Oil prices continue to rise despite US job losses, Asian stocks pause over US jobs
Asian shares were on edge Friday as they awaited the U.S. employment data, which could be pivotal in next month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Meanwhile, rising oil prices reminded investors that Middle East tensions are far from being resolved. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%, and the overall week was down by 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.5%, despite being set to rise 1.7% for the week. South Korea's KOSPI fell by 0.5%, and it was down 5.1% on the week. This is the seventh consecutive week of declines. The index doubled during the first half of this year due to the fervent demand for AI-linked "chip stocks". China's CSI 300 index rose by 0.8% following data showing China's massive export machine continued to power ahead in order to boost the country's economy. Investors are now focused on the U.S. Payrolls Report due later that day. This could be crucial for the interest rate outlook. Forecasts predict a gain of 80,000 jobs in July, after a gain of 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. The stakes are very high, as the'markets can't seem to decide how to react to a Federal Reserve rate increase next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that yields and inflation are still the main risks for stocks. "We expect Friday's NFP will trade as a ‘good news is a bad news’ print," he added. A strong jobs number could reinforce higher prices and increase pressure on rates. Feroli said that a weak payrolls report could be a positive for stocks, as the yields will ease and expectations of policy will shift to a more dovish direction. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.1%, while S&P500 futures were unchanged. Stock futures for the entire region are down 0.2%, indicating a lower opening on European bourses. OIL CLIMBS AGAIN Tensions have risen in the Middle East after Yemen's Houthis, who are a major oil exporter, attacked Saudi Arabia. Riyadh warned that coordinated attacks from the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militas are imminent. Brent crude futures rose 1.5% to $83.78 per barrel after a 3.8% jump overnight. The price was still on track for a loss of 7% per week and they were still a long way off the recent high of $102 per barrel. Iran is reviewing an initial bill which would ban U.S. and Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostiles" from transiting Strait of Hormuz. The draft bill could impose fines of up to 20 percent of the ship's value for violating proposed restrictions. The higher oil prices boosted treasury yields. In Asia, the 2-year yield remained at 4.2496%, after rising by 7 basis points overnight. The 10-year yield stayed at 4.6821% despite a 5 bps increase overnight. After a bouncing start to the day, the dollar remained steady in Asia on Friday. The dollar was trading at 158.38 Japanese yen after rising by 0.4% overnight to surpass the 200-day average. After last week's sharp rally, the U.S. jobs data could determine the next moves for the yen. Spot gold increased 0.7% to $4268 per ounce while spot silver increased 1.3% to 62.229 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, Kate Mayberry).
Oil gains as Gulf tensions escalate; stocks, dollar fall ahead of US employment data
Investor optimism about robust earnings growth and excitement over AI helped offset concerns over another flare-up of Middle East tensions, which boosted oil prices.
MSCI's All-World Index?has?risen?2.3% this week. It is the highest in three months. On Friday, it was stable. Shares in drugmakers?and technology companies?lifted Europe's STOXX600 by 0.2% for the day, and 1.6% over the course of the week.
Investors are now focused on the U.S. Payrolls Report due later that day. This could be crucial for interest rate outlook. Forecasts predict a gain of 80,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.
The money markets indicate that traders are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will increase rates next month. Friday's payrolls data could tip the balance one way or the other.
Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. JPMorgan's economist said that a positive jobs number would support higher prices for longer and increase pressure on rates.
In contrast, stocks may react positively to a weak payrolls report, as yields are easing and expectations of policy shift towards a more dovish direction, said Feroli.
Analysts said that given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwillingness to provide any guidance as to what to expect from monetary policy, employment data could make a bigger splash than usual in the?market.
"An extremely poor or strong print can have a greater impact on prices than it did in the past, when the Fed's options were more clear. "Vacuums have to be filled and the market will always choose itself as a solution," Caxton strategist David Stritch stated.
Nasdaq and S&P futures in the U.S. were both flat. Cloudflare shares surged 16% in the Tradegate platform after a strong 18% gain in Thursday's after-hours trading.
OIL CLIMBS AGAIN
The tensions in the Middle East have risen again since Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil exporter. Riyadh warned that coordinated attacks from the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militas would be imminent.
Brent crude futures rose 1% to $83, but still were set for a loss of 7% per week and remained far below their recent peak at $102 per barrel two weeks ago.
Iran is reviewing a draft bill that will bar U.S. and Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostile" ships, from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency on Thursday. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20% of a ship’s cargo value if the proposed restrictions are violated.
Treasury yields were essentially unchanged for the day as trading activity was subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the employment data. The 10-year note yield traded at 4.67%, and the 2-year note yield at 4.243%.
The dollar remained steady and the Japanese yen was around 158.4. The U.S. employment report could determine the next moves for the yen, after last week's 'historic' currency market intervention by Japan and the U.S. caused a sharp rally.
The dollar has been trading at around its six-week lows, while gold is rising. Gold has increased by over 6% in the past week. This is its highest performance since mid-January when it reached a record of $5,594. Last week, it was up 1.2% to $4,289 per ounce. (Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney; editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kate Mayberry)
(source: Reuters)