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Gold reaches a seven-week high after weak U.S. job data denies rate hike bets
Gold soared on Friday, reaching its highest level in seven weeks, after an unexpected decline in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for July dashed hopes of rate hikes and put bullion in line for its best seven-month period. By 10:57am, spot gold had risen 2.4% to $4341.69 an ounce. EDT (1457 GMT), after having surged more than 3% to reach its highest level since June 17. Bullion prices have risen over 7% this week, the largest weekly increase since January 19. U.S. Gold futures rose 2.4% to $4402.20. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls in the United States fell by 23,000 jobs last month, after an upwardly revised 20,000 job increase in June. The economists polled by?by predicted an increase of 80,000 positions. David Meger of High Ridge Futures, Director of Metals Trading, said that the Fed is less likely to increase interest rates if jobs data are weaker than expected. Meger said that a declining dollar and an increased gold price are likely to result from a lower energy price and a reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike in the United States. According to LSEG, the rate futures market now only prices in a 43.9% probability of Fed tightening next month, compared to 57% prior to the jobs report. According to LSEG data, the 'probability of the Fed holding rates in September has increased from 43.2% before releasing the jobs report to 56.1% now. Gold is more attractive than other assets that generate yields because it does not generate any interest. In a note published on Friday, UBS said it expected gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2027. U.S. president Donald Trump said to reporters that he believes the war with Iran will be over soon. Silver spot gained 3.4% per ounce to $63.54, platinum rose 1% to $1745.87 and palladium increased 0.4% to 1 376.90. All three metals are headed for a weekly gain.
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Globe and Mail reports that Canada is negotiating with the US to reduce tariffs in exchange for trade concessions.
The Globe and Mail, citing anonymous sources, reported that Canada and the U.S. were discussing a potential deal where Ottawa would accept a list of Trump Administration?trade requests in exchange for a certain relief on sectoral tariffs. According to the report, despite extensive discussions and an exchange of written positions, there has not been any agreement between the two parties. Could not verify the report immediately. The 'White House' and Canada's Prime Minster's Office didn't immediately respond to requests for a comment. President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs last month on a broad range of?imports coming from Canada. These tariffs will take effect August 19, 2018. The U.S. trade representative's office stated that the tariffs would apply to almost $20 billion in Canadian imports. In 2025, the U.S. will import goods worth $382 billion from Canada. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, has stated that he is looking for a comprehensive agreement and not just a partial deal. The Globe and Mail reported that Canada would agree to a number of trade issues. These include the removal of retaliatory duties on U.S. goods such as automobiles, the return?of American alcohol to the shelves of stores, the lifting of provincial procurement restrictions, and an agreement with the U.S. interpretation on how dairy quotas should be allocated. The provinces are responsible for some?issues such as restocking American alcoholic beverages. Canadian officials met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday in Washington, according to Dominic?LeBlanc. Since Trump returned to the White House in?last?year and imposed tariffs on Canada, the relationship between the two countries has been strained. He also called for Canada to become the U.S.'s 51st state. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Rod Nickel, and Kanjyik?Ghosh from Barcelona)
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What is Patriot missile system? Why are the supplies running out worldwide?
The U.S. Patriot system, first used in 1991 in the Gulf War, has seen a sharp increase in demand this year. Supplies of interceptors have been depleted due to the war in the Middle East and Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion. Ukraine urgently seeks more Patriot interceptors to defend itself against the nightly barrages of Russian ballistic rocket strikes. The Iran War has depleted the arsenals of the U.S., the Gulf and some European countries. Here are some details on the Patriot air defense system, which is one of the most sophisticated weapons in the U.S. arsenal. What is the Patriot System? Patriot is a mobile air-to-surface missile defense system that was developed by Raytheon Technologies. It can be used at any distance and in any weather. The Patriot system, which was developed in the 1980s and modernized during the last decade, has expanded its capabilities. The Patriot system is expected to be in service until 2048. A typical battery consists of radar and control systems as well as a power unit and launchers. The system is capable of intercepting?aircrafts, tactical ballistics missiles and cruises missiles depending on the interceptor. What can the Patriot System do? The capabilities of the system vary depending on which interceptor is used. The PAC-2 uses a?blast fragmentation' warhead which detonates near a target. However, the PAC-3 missile family uses a more precise "hit to kill" technology in order to collide physically with the target. Raytheon manufactures the PAC-2 GEM - T interceptor which is capable of defeating smaller, shorter-range ballistic missiles, cruise -missiles or enemy aircraft. Lockheed Martin is the largest arms manufacturer in the world. They build the more advanced PAC-3 Missile Segment Improvement (MSE), a missile that can be used to hit cruise missiles and hypersonics as well as longer-range missiles. Lockheed announced a new interceptor in July. The PAC-3 Adapted?Effector? (ACE) will be half the price and still target short-range missiles, aircraft, and cruise missiles. NATO reported in 2015 that the radar system has a range?over 150km (93miles) and is capable of tracking up to 100 targets at once. The Patriot system was not designed originally to intercept hypersonic missiles, but in May 2023, the U.S. confirmed that Ukraine used it to shoot down the Russian Kinzhal, which Moscow claims to be hypersonic. The number of targets that Patriot systems have destroyed is closely guarded by countries, though Ukraine reported in January that it had destroyed 250, including 140 missiles. Patriot also destroyed dozens Iranian ballistic missiles, but details were not released. HOW WIDELY is it used? According to its website, Raytheon has delivered more than 240 Patriot Fire units. Raytheon, Lockheed and other companies have produced thousands of interceptor missiles. According to Raytheon's statistics, 19 countries are now using the Patriot system. These include the U.S.A., Germany Poland Ukraine, Japan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Sixteen countries have the newest PAC-3 MSE rockets. Six to eight nations have asked for additional missiles to replenish depleted stock. How much does it cost? According to the Center for?Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a newly produced?Patriot single battery costs more than $1 billion. This includes $400 million for a system and $690 for missiles. Patriot PAC-3 missile interceptors cost between $4 and $5 million each. Why are supplies dwindling? CSIS does not release specific inventory numbers, but estimates that 65% of U.S. Patriot interceptors were used between February and July. There are now less than 850 interceptors left, compared to 2,330 at the start of the "Iran War". Experts say that the Gulf States' current inventories are also depleted and that several European countries have sent some of their supplies to Ukraine. Saudi Arabia has used up to 86% of the 2,800 PAC-3 missiles it had in its arsenal in the first 38 combat days, and only 400 missiles remain in April. CSIS reported that other Gulf countries also used similar quantities of their stockpiles. Are countries buying more Patriots to boost inventories? The U.S. approved the sale of 5,250 interceptors for replenishment to Bahrain, Kuwait Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The United States is also pressing ahead with talks on allowing Ukraine to make Patriot interceptor missiles, even after President Donald Trump cast doubt on such a deal. Sources familiar with the talks said that even though President Donald Trump questioned such a deal they are still pressing forward with discussions on allowing Ukraine make Patriot interceptors. Sources familiar with the discussions said that Ukraine could build certain components to be assembled elsewhere in Europe. Lockheed Martin was awarded a contract by the U.S. Army last month for Patriot interceptor missiles. The contract is worth up to $58,6 billion. (Reporting from Andrea Shalal, Washington; and Jesus Calero, Gdansk. Editing by Susan Fenton.)
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ADNOC: Attacks on vessels and staff have a significant impact on operations
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said on Friday that it was being "significantly affected" by unprovoked attacks on its people and assets, while it sought to meet customer demands in an "exceptionally difficult environment." ADNOC stated in a press release that 15 of their vessels were attacked by drones and missiles while they transited the Strait of Hormuz, including three this week. One crew member was killed and 20 injured. Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil shipping chokepoint in the world, transporting a fifth of global oil consumption. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has expanded to a wider region, shipping?through this waterway has repeatedly been disrupted. Attacks on commercial vessels have raised freight rates as well as security concerns. ADNOC is the state oil company of Abu?Dhabi and one of the largest energy producers in the world. It exports crude 'oil', natural gas, and refined products worldwide. ADNOC said that it was working closely and taking all the necessary measures to protect its people, assets, and operations while meeting customer needs as much as possible. ADNOC stated that "freedom of navigation, and the safe and uninterrupted passage... of commercial shipping through international waterways must be respected and protected, without threats, harassment, or attacks." Reporting by Maha El-Dahan, Enas Al-Alashray and Ahmed Tolba. Editing by Louise Heavens.
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India's Titan reports profit surge due to strong jewellery demand
India's Titan reported on Friday a 63% increase in its?quarterly profits as the demand for jewellery remained strong, store footfalls increased and gold prices rose. As they expand rapidly across India, which is the second largest consumer of gold in the world, large jewellery chains such as Kalyan Jewellers (Titan's Tanishq) and CaratLane (CaratLane by Titan) are gaining customers from smaller independent jewellers. Titan Jewellers is the largest jeweller in Canada, both by store count and revenue. At the end of June, Titan Eye+ eyewear stores and Fastrack watches stores had 3,680 outlets, up from 3,322 at the same time last year. As customers began to purchase higher-margin jewelry, the company's profits jumped to 17.77 billion rupees (186.64 millions). The overall margins for earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), also known as EBIT, increased to 13.4% from 11.8%. The revenue from the mainstay jewelry business, excluding sales of bullion and digital gold, increased by 43%. Footfalls at Indian retail outlets grew in a low-double-digit percentage rate. The overall revenue increased by 40%, to 207.87 trillion?rupees. Profits rose 37% excluding customs-duty gains. The total expenses rose 26%, to 190.75 billion Rupees. This was due to higher gold prices and advertising costs. Titan's executives stated that the company expected a?double-digit growth in jewellery sales over the medium term, but they noted a softer demand for plain gold towards?the end? of July as some consumers delayed?purchases due to an increase in gold prices. Titan's Middle East business suffered a loss in the third quarter due to the conflict. $1 = 95.2075 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman in Chennai)
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Sources say that some Chinese steelmakers and traders have stopped doing business with Radiant World.
Four sources familiar with the matter claim that some Chinese iron ore and steelmakers have stopped doing business with Radiant World this year. This was even before negative media reports about the trading house. Two sources claimed that they had stopped doing business with the company because of the long time it took to get the final settlement. Another two said the state iron ore buyer China Mineral Resources Group urged them to cut back on their exposure to this firm. Radiant World has been under scrutiny since Bloomberg News reported that Cargill, Vitol Group and other commodity trading firms had severed ties with Radiant 'World over concerns that the invoices or documents Radiant 'World provided to its bank were invalid. Radiant World had previously called these claims "inaccurate" and "unsubstantiated". On Friday, a?company spokesperson stated that the trading house does not "comment publicly" on specific counterparties, trading activity, or commercial positions. CMRG didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The final settlement took an unusually long time, which made us uncomfortable, said a trader of iron ore at a state-backed trading firm. He declined to be identified as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. Manager at a Chinese steel mill who previously purchased seaborne cargoes through Radiant World stated that they had ceased to do so in the past few months, and held internal discussions on future cooperation. He declined to provide any further details. Gary Nagle, CEO of Glencore, the miner and trader, said that his company had stopped doing business with Radiant World on Wednesday. Bloomberg News reported that KBC Group NV and Deutsche Bank have frozen Radiant World Singapore's bank accounts. Other banks have also suspended credit lines. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Jan Harvey and staff)
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Gold reaches a seven-week high after weak U.S. job data denies rate hike bets
Gold surged on Friday, reaching its highest level in'seven' weeks, after an unexpected decline in U.S. Non-farm Payrolls for July dashed hopes of rate hikes and put bullion in line for its best seven-month-old week. Gold spot jumped 2.6%, to $4348.87 an ounce at 09:09 am EDT (1308 GMT), after gaining over 3% and reaching its highest level since June 2017. Bullion prices have risen?over 7 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since January 19. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2.5% to $4408.00. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 jobs last month, following a June increase of 20,000 jobs which was downwardly revised. The economists surveyed by? The economists polled by? David Meger of High Ridge Futures, Director of Metals Trading, said that the Fed is less likely to increase interest rates at their next meeting because of the weaker than expected jobs data. Meger said that the falling energy prices and the less likely Fed rate hike could all lead to a weaker US dollar and higher gold prices. According to LSEG, the rate futures market has now priced in only a 43.9% probability of Fed tightening next month, compared to 57% just before the jobs report. The probability that the Fed would hold rates in September rose from 43.2% to 60.4%, according to LSEG data. Gold is more attractive than other assets that generate yields because it does not generate interest. UBS said that it expects the gold price to reach $5,000 per ounce by?the first six months of 2027', in a Friday note. U.S. president Donald Trump told reporters that the 'war with Iran' would end'soon. Silver spot gained 4.5%, to $64,26 per ounce. Platinum rose 1.4%, to $1753,09, while palladium increased 0.4%, to $1375.75. All three metals are headed to weekly gains. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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Poland's former Orlen managers face trial over oil deal losses
Prosecutors announced a 25-year sentence for three former managers of Polish refiner Orlen, and one of its subsidiaries. They were indicted over crude oil contracts that resulted in losses of almost $400 million. Polish prosecutors are investigating the $378 million in prepayments that Orlen made for Venezuelan crude oil and other goods but never received. The defendants are accused of failing to supervise and protect the assets of Orlen Trading Switzerland and Orlen Trading Switzerland by entering into contracts for the purchase crude oil that were detrimental to both companies, prosecutors claim. The defendants, identified by Polish privacy laws as Michal r, a formerly member of Orlen’s?management council; Marcin O., a formerly member of OTS’ management board; and Filip W., a?former executive director of Orlen &?OTS, have all denied wrongdoing. The investigation into the former OTS head Samer 'A. who was arrested in?the United Arab Emirates? last year is ongoing, according to prosecutors. Poland has asked for his extradition. The four?were unable to be reached for comment. Orlen didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Anna Koper)
US stocks and bonds rise after soft jobs report, yen recovers
The global stock market is on track for its biggest weekly gain since the beginning of May, after a weaker than expected U.S. job report eased concerns about an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Meanwhile, strong earnings and AI enthusiasm overshadowed concerns about the Iran War.
U.S. stock prices opened higher on the Friday, and Treasury yields dropped. This reflects a waning expectation that the Fed would raise rates next month.
The Nasdaq gained 0.7% during early trading, while the dollar dropped. This gave the Japanese yen some relief. The yen rose to 157.20 against the dollar, after previously approaching 159. This level is widely regarded as a possible trigger for policy interventions.
The MSCI All-World Index rose 2.4% in the past week, which is the highest gain for three months. It was stable on Friday. Europe's STOXX600 index was up 0.6% for the day, and 2% over the past week.
U.S. Payroll Report showed that employment dropped by 23,000, contrary to expectations from a poll which predicted an increase of about 80,000. Analysts say the data gives the Fed more leeway to hold rates at the same level next month, while they assess upcoming economic indicators including the U.S. Inflation Report due next week.
Lindsay Rosner is the head of fixed-income investments at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, New York. "History does not repeat itself, but it can rhyme," she said. For the third time in a row, the July jobs data showed a mid-summer decline of momentum. The incoming inflation data is the ultimate arbiter. However, slowing job growth supports a hold in September."
TRADERS DISAGREE ON FED RATE INCREASE
Before the report on payrolls, the money markets were evenly divided about the prospect of a Fed interest rate hike next month. The implied probability of an increase dropped to 40% after the payrolls report from 55%.
Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that with yields and inflation as still being the main risks to stocks, Friday's NFP will trade like a "good news is bad?news" print.
The conflict in the Middle East erupted again after Yemeni Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil-exporter. Riyadh has warned of imminent coordinated attacks between the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militias.
Brent crude futures reversed their course on Friday, falling 0.7% to $82 per barrel as investors largely ignored Saudi Arabia's warnings.
Iran is meanwhile reviewing a draft bill which would prohibit U.S. and Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostile", from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency on Thursday, citing an Iranian lawmaker. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20 percent of the value of a ship’s cargo for violations.
Treasury yields fell after the weak jobs report. The yield on the 2-year note fell by 7 basis points, to 4.176%. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year notes dropped by 5 basis points to 461%.
The dollar index fell 0.5% to 99.43, while the yen rose.
The gold price rose this week to its highest level in six weeks, while the dollar hovered around a six-week low. Bullion gained almost 7% in the past week. This is its best weekly performance since mid January, when it reached a record of $5,594. The last 2% increase was at $4,322 per ounce. Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney. Alex Richardson and Colin Barr edited the article. Mark Potter was also involved in editing.
(source: Reuters)