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Dollar nears six-week high as stocks rise amid uncertainty over Iran talks

As uncertainty surrounds the U.S.-Iran talks, global stocks rose and the U.S. Dollar hovered at its highest level in six weeks. Oil prices also edged higher. U.S. State Secretary Marco 'Rubio' said that there were "some positive signs" in the?talks aimed at ending the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. However, differences remain regarding Tehran’s uranium stocks and control of the strait.

Investors are worried about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a vital artery that supplies energy to the world. The oil price has soared and the outlook for global interest rates has changed due to inflationary fears.

The MSCI World Stock Index rose by 0.22%. STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.43%. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.31%, and S&P500 futures rose 0.26%. S&P 500 index rose 0.17% to 7,445.72 on Thursday, after reaching 7,517.12 in the previous week. This is a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan increased by 0.74%. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.8%, barely missing a record high. This was due to artificial intelligence shares. Oil prices are also moving higher as investors weigh the risks that talks will drag out or break down, said Matt Britzman senior equity analyst of Hargreaves Lansdown.

"The truth is, nobody knows the outcome of these negotiations. But, for now, the markets are moving tentatively as if good news was just around the corner."

Brent crude futures were up 2% at $104.96 per barrel, but they are set to drop 6% for the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 1.35% to $97.64.

The war's prolonged energy disruptions could have a ripple effect on prices around the world, prompting traders to price in rate increases in both developed and emerging market countries. The markets are pricing in more than 50% of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike by the end the year, compared to expectations of two rate reductions before the war began.

This has boosted Treasury yields, and the dollar has also benefitted from safe-haven demands. The euro is at $1.1614 and close to its six-week low, which it reached on Thursday. It will drop 1% this month.

The dollar stood at 99.247 against a basket. The Japanese yen was last trading at 159.11 to the dollar, dangerously close to the 160-level that traders fear will bring Japanese authorities back into the market. George Saravelos said that the energy prices must be reversed quickly, as the combination of fiscal expenditure and capex boom could lead to a lot more inflation, particularly in the U.S. Saravelos stated that the incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin?Warsh will have to choose between increasing volatility in front-end interest rates and helping the dollar or lowering them at the back end and hurting the dollar. He can't do both. In theory, Fed rate increases would push up short-dated yields. However, no action from the central bank may increase borrowing costs for long-term loans as the markets are pricing in higher inflation. Two-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 1 basis point to 4.09% this week, while two-year bond yields in other major markets fell sharply. The dollar has remained strong against the yen despite an 'intervention' worth $65 billion by Tokyo a few weeks ago to shore up the currency. The last time it was up 0.1%, at 159.125?yen. The data on Friday revealed that Japan's core rate of inflation fell to its lowest level in four years in April. This complicates the Bank of Japan’s path of raising rates.

Analysts said the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP and firm April exports data earlier this week showed the resilience of the Japanese economy despite the energy shocks, which supported a Bank of Japan hike.

(source: Reuters)