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LNG is stepping up to solve Europe gas woes, but at a price: Russell

Concerns that Europe is facing a natural gas supply crunch this winter season are overblown, with the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market currently stepping up to prevent any shortage, albeit at greater rates.

European gas prices climbed to the highest level in two years last week, with the benchmark front-month agreement at the Dutch TTF center reaching 49.03 euros per megawatt hour on Nov. 22, comparable to $14.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Costs have actually rallied about 40% since mid-September amidst worries that the staying Russian pipeline materials to Europe will be halted, or face additional curtailment.

New U.S. sanctions on Russia's Gazprombank, the financial institution some remaining European importers of Russian gas usage to process payments, have actually also raised issues about the future of supply.

Throw in some early cold weather and the expiry at the end of the year of the transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine and it's hardly unexpected that rates have actually been rallying.

However there is little indication that Europe will run short of natural gas, and the worldwide LNG market is currently adjusting to show the current characteristics.

Europe's November imports of the super-chilled fuel are on track to increase to the greatest considering that February, with product analysts Kpler tracking arrivals of 9.16 million metric loads.

This is up from 7.56 million lots in October and 6.37 million in September, which was the most affordable month-to-month total in 3 years.

The boost in imports is largely being fulfilled by increased deliveries from the United States, the world's largest LNG exporter and the swing supplier between the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

Europe is on track to import 4.32 million tons of U.S. LNG in November, the most because February and up from October's 3.13 million, according to Kpler information.

In contrast, Asia's imports of U.S. LNG are approximated to drop to 2.19 million tons in November, the most affordable because march and below 3.21 million in October.

Asia's overall imports of LNG are anticipated to decline in November to 23.13 million tons, the lowest since June and down from 24.39 million in October.

PRICE LEVEL OF SENSITIVITY

The drop is mostly because of weaker imports in the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, with India, the fourth-biggest purchaser in Asia, expected to land 2.21 million lots in November, down from 2.36 million in October.

India is among a group of Asian buyers that tend to be cost sensitive, and the current rise in spot LNG costs will act as a. brake on the country's demand.

Area LNG for delivery to North Asia << LNG-AS > increased to $14.60. per mmBtu in the week to Nov. 22, an 11-month high and up from. $ 13.60 the previous week.

The cost has actually been rising gradually in current months and is. now up 76% from its 2024 low of $8.30 per mmBtu.

Nevertheless, it's still except peak in 2023 of $17.90 per. mmBtu, reached in late October as energies in Asia stocked up. ahead of winter.

The current forecasts for winter season in North Asia are for a. cooler season than in 2015, which might serve to boost need. for LNG, particularly in leading importers China, Japan and South. Korea.

Combined with the possibility of higher European need for. LNG, it's likely that area rates will continue to increase.

The greater prices will increasingly crowd out the more. price-sensitive purchasers, such as India.

But this isn't an indication that the market is under tension,. rather it reveals that it's working as it should.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)