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Silver reaches record highs on Fed rate cuts optimism
The gold price rose on Friday, as expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week boosted sentiment. Silver also reached a new record high. At 1:36 pm, spot gold was up by 1% at $4,212.16 an ounce. ET (1836 GMT), however, was on course for a weekly loss of 0.4%. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery settled unchanged at $4.243 per ounce. Bart Melek is the global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that "the market is increasingly confident the central bank will cut (rates)." In response, the U.S. currency has weakened a bit, which is a positive for gold. The U.S. Economic data revealed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) rose by 0.3% in September. This is a slowdown from the 2.9% annual increase in August. Last month, private payroll data revealed the largest decline in more than two and a half years. The Fed's dovish comments have further fuelled expectations of monetary ease. CME's FedWatch indicates that there is an 87.2% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Fed meeting on December 9-10. Alex Ebkarian said that gold is expected to trade between $4200 and $4500 this year and between $4500 and $5,000 in the future, depending on Fed decisions. In India and China, the physical gold demand has slowed this week while buyers await a correction of spot prices. Silver increased 2.6%, to $58.59 per ounce. This is up 4% on the week after reaching a record high of $59.32. Melek stated that "silver is following the path of gold, and many investors believe that silver is still quite cheap relative to gold," citing structural deficits as well as a rising demand for electricty. The white metal is up 98% this year due to supply shortages and its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. Palladium rose 0.3%, to $1,453.39. Platinum remained at $1,646.10. Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru and Anushree Mukerjee reporting. Leroy Leo and Mark Potter edited by Vijay Kishore.
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Six EU member states press EU to relax 2035 ban on cars with internal combustion engines
Six European Union nations have asked the European Commission on Friday to soften an effective ban on sales of internal combustion engines cars scheduled for 2035, ahead of the release next week of a new package of auto legislation. A joint letter, seen by on Friday, showed that the countries had asked the EU Commission for permission to sell hybrid cars and vehicles powered by existing or future technologies, "that could help to reduce emissions" after 2035. The letter was signed the Prime Ministers of Bulgaria (the Czech Republic), Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovakia. The plan should also include low-carbon and sustainable fuels in order to reduce carbon emissions from transport. The European Commission will present a package to support European automakers. This includes a relaxation of the ban on internal combustion engine use from 2035. The package was due to be released on December 10, but it could be postponed. EU countries have been working to adopt a rule that will require all new cars manufactured after 2035 to emit zero emissions by March 2023. Now having Second Thoughts . The outlook for battery-electric vehicles was initially positive. However, carmakers have since been confronted by a reality of lower than expected demand and fierce competition coming from China. In their letter, the Prime Ministers stated that "We must and can pursue our climate goals in a way that is effective while not destroying our competitiveness. There is nothing green about an industrial desert." (Reporting and writing by Inti Lauro; editing by Philip Blenkinsop, Louise Rasmussen)
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Constellium CEO: EU faces slow demise of aluminum industry if carbon taxes are not abolished
Constellium's CEO said that the European Union should abandon a carbon border tax, which could push its aluminium industry into a long-term decline. The tax would increase costs and favor more polluting foreign suppliers. Carbon Border Adjustment, a mechanism that will begin imposing a tax on imports for a few commodities in January, was designed to protect European producers from cheaper competitors in countries with laxer climate laws. Industry representatives, however, see the system as flawed and are hopeful that the final EU adjustments to the Mechanism, which will be announced this month, address their concerns. Jean-Marc Germain is the CEO of Constellium in Paris, one of the largest suppliers of aluminum products to the aviation, automotive and packaging industries. The competitiveness of Europe is at the core of this issue. "We are shooting ourselves in our own foot," he said. In November, the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone slipped into contraction. Constellium mainly buys European Aluminium, which is exempt from the CBAM tax, to process in its factories. The upcoming tax, coupled with worries about supply from Iceland and Mozambique, has nevertheless pushed European premiums on physical metals to a 10-month-high. Germain warned that cost inflation will be "death in a thousand cuts" to Constellium industrial customers across Europe. The scheme has loopholes that allow overseas suppliers to avoid CBAM through the shipment of scrap or by sending low-carbon aluminum to Europe while continuing production of high-carbon metal in other regions. "It does nothing for the environment," Germain said. He said that the impact of CBAM will not be immediately felt, but it could lead to companies investing elsewhere and closing European capacity. It's not something that you can turn off the lights all at once. It will be a slow decline.
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US plans to secure minerals in response to the peace agreement between Congo-Rwanda and the US
The United States Development lender announced on Friday plans to take a stake to market Congo minerals, which could give U.S. users of copper and cobalt the right to first refusal. The U.S. and China are in a heated competition to gain access to minerals that are crucial to the manufacture of everything from cars to iPhones. Congo has 72% of the world's cobalt reserves, and supplies 74% of that amount. Many of these mines are artisanal. The plans for investment were revealed a day after U.S. president Donald Trump hosted leaders of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo to sign an agreement to end the long-running conflict in Congo's mineral rich east and stabilize supply chains. Trump said it was a new era in harmony and cooperation, which would bring peace and prosper across the region. However, neither country had implemented the pledges that were at the heart of the agreement and fighting broke out again on Friday. The peace agreement ties security commitments with an economic framework that opens up Congo's reserves of copper, cobalt and lithium to Western investors looking for minerals critical to EVs and renewable energy. CONGO AND METALS: A REDEFINED LINK The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has expressed an interest in acquiring equity in a joint venture between Congo’s state miner Gecamines, and Swiss commodities group Mercuria for the marketing of copper and cobalt. In a joint press release, Gecamines said that the partnership could include minerals such as germanium and gallium. These are vital to semiconductors and solar panel technology. Guy Robert Lukama said that this collaboration is a crucial step for Gecamines to enhance its position in the global market. The two companies have said that under a possible deal with the International Development Finance Corporation U.S. consumers would get a first right of refusal on supplies of copper and cobalt. The lender stated in a separate press release that the planned U.S. investments in the partnership will support the commercialization of cobalt, copper and other essential minerals. This will give U.S. buyers and their allies access to supplies vital for electric vehicles and renewable energy. The partnership announced that it is aiming to improve transparency and competition in the world’s largest cobalt producer. This country recently introduced export quotas and launched traceable artisanal artisanal cobalt. Mercuria, as part of the agreement, will offer expertise in logistics and finance and provide training on risk management and operations. The statement also said that the venture plans to invest in export infrastructure, which will help ease mineral bottlenecks. Kostas Bintas is the global head of Mercuria for metals and minerals. He called this partnership "a redefined way of how Congo interacts globally with metals markets". DFC has also indicated support for another project in Congo to renovate the Dilolo - Sakania railway line. This project could be funded up to $1 billion. The line would be connected to Angola’s Lobito Atlantic Railway creating a strategic route to move goods and minerals across Central and Southern Africa.
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Silver hits record high as dollar falls on expectations of rate cuts; gold gains 1%
The dollar was under pressure as the expectation of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week grew. Silver prices also reached a new record high. At 10:44 am, spot gold was up by 1.1% at $4,255.59 an ounce. ET (1544 GMT) and was on course for a weekly gain of 0.5%. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were up 1% at $4,286.90 an ounce. Bart Melek is the global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that "the market is increasingly confident the central bank will cut (rates)." In response, the U.S. currency has weakened a bit, which is a positive for gold. Gold became more appealing to buyers who use other currencies after the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.1%. Gold tends to be more attractive when interest rates are lower, as it does not provide a yield. The U.S. Economic data revealed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) rose by 0.3% in September. This is a slowdown from the 2.9% annual increase in August. Last month, private payroll data revealed the largest decline in more than two and a half years. The Fed's dovish comments have further fuelled expectations of monetary ease. CME's FedWatch indicates that there is an 87.2% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Fed meeting on December 9-10. Alex Ebkarian said that gold is expected to trade between $4200 and $4500 this year and between $4500 and $5,000 in the future, depending on Fed decisions. In India and China, the physical gold demand has slowed this week while buyers await a correction of spot prices. Silver increased 3.6%, to $59.19 per ounce. This is up 4.7% on the week after reaching a record high of $59.32 an ounce earlier. Melek stated that "silver is following the path of gold, and many investors believe that silver is still quite cheap relative to gold," citing structural deficits as well as a rising demand for electricty. The white metal is up 104% in this year due to supply shortages and its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. Palladium rose by 0.8%, to $1460, and platinum was up 0.2%, to $1648.85. Anmol Choubey reports from Bengaluru. (Editing by Leroy Leo, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
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TSX reaches new record high after positive jobs data
Toronto's main stock index rose to a fresh peak on Friday, and was on track for weekly gains, after stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data fueled optimism about the economy. The S&P/TSX composite index increased by 0.2%, reaching a new high of 31533.40 points. The index was last seen at 31,531.84 point. Data showed that Canada's unemployment rate defied expectations in November and dropped to a 16 month low as part-time employment grew for the third consecutive time. Analysts polled predicted a loss of 5,000 positions. Angelo Kourkafas is an investment strategist with Edward Jones Investments. He said, "The jobs data confirms expectations that the Bank of Canada remains on hold next Monday and will likely be done with its easing cycles." Bank of Canada interest rates are widely expected to remain at 2.25% the following week. The swap market now prices in a 15 basis point rate increase next year, up from 5 basis points before the data. The main index is set to post its second consecutive week of gains, as strong results from major Canadian Banks and higher oil prices have helped offset some of the losses suffered in early weeks due to a decline in technology and mining stocks. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - the Federal Reserve preferred measure of inflation – came in line with expectations as the U.S. Central Bank prepares to announce its policy next week. Laurentian Bank, a lender, reported a fourth-quarter loss that was below analysts' expectations; shares were almost flat. Orla Mining shares fell 6.8% after Fairfax Financial Holdings bought 25 million shares. (Reporting by Avinash P in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)
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Congo fighting flares up within hours of Trump’s peace deal ceremony
Fighting broke out in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo Friday, just a day after U.S. president Donald Trump met with Congolese leaders and Rwandans in Washington for the signing of new agreements aimed at ending decades of conflict in this mineral-rich region. On Thursday, Congo's Felix Tshisekedi reaffirmed his commitment to the U.S.-brokered agreement reached in June. The deal aims to stabilize the vast country by allowing more Western mining investments. "We are settling a long-running war," said Trump. His administration intervened in many conflicts around the globe to burnish Trump's credentials as a world peacemaker, and advance U.S. corporate interests. The warring parties blamed each other for the fierce fighting that continued on the ground. AFC/M23, a rebel group backed by Rwanda, which has seized two of the largest cities in eastern Congo this year, and is not bound to the Washington agreement, claimed that forces loyal to government are launching widespread attacks. In a press release, the group stated that 23 people had been killed and others injured in bombings that targeted towns located in South Kivu Province in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. A Congolese Army spokesman stated that clashes are ongoing and Rwandan troops are bombing. FAMILY FLEE CLASHES Analysts claim that U.S. diplomatic efforts halted the escalation in fighting in eastern Congo, but did not resolve key issues. Neither Rwanda nor Congo fulfilled their commitments in the June agreement. Online videos showed dozens displaced families fleeing with their possessions and livestock in the direction of Luvungi, in South Kivu Province in eastern Congo. It was not possible to verify them immediately. Lawrence Kanyuka wrote, "Women and children alike have tragically died in this tragedy." He wrote that the Congolese forces "continued to attack densely populated North Kivu areas and South Kivu using heavy artillery, drones, and fighter jets." Un spokesperson for the Congo army confirmed that there were clashes along the Kaziba-Katogota-Rurambo axis of South Kivu Province. The bombardment by the Rwandan Defence Force has caused a population displacement in Luvungi. He said that they were bombing blindly. The Rwandan army and government spokespersons were not available to comment immediately. A senior AFC/M23 representative said that rebel forces had recaptured the town of Luberika, and destroyed a drone used by the Congolese Army. He asked to remain anonymous as he wasn't authorized to speak with media. He said: "The war is still going on and it has nothing to do with the signing agreement yesterday in Washington." Reporting by Congo Newsroom, Writing by Bate Felis; Editing and proofreading by Philippa Fletcher & Alex Richardson
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Metal prices are soaring, adding a new shine to the Olympic-Winter Games' medals
The gleaming medal of an Olympic athlete is priceless. It's a reward for all the sacrifices and dedication they have put in over the years. With the recent rise in gold and precious metals prices, these prized symbols of success have a much higher monetary value. The Italian state mint IPZS is producing medals with up to double the value of the ones won at the Paris Olympics in 2024. Michele Sciscioli, IPZS Chief executive, said: "The medals represent tangible rewards for intangible effort." Gold medals were solid until 1912. Silver-gilt medals have been used since then as per the official guidelines of the International Olympic Committee. The gold medals which will be worn by the champions in 2026 will contain just under $800 of gold at current prices. Since the last Olympics in Paris, bronze medals have been made from pure copper with a low metal value. Data shows that gold has been on a steady rise all year and reached its all-time peak on October 20. Silver also reached new highs early in October. The white metal has risen over 100% this year. DISCS OF ICE IPZS will produce 1,146 medals in total for the Olympics, which runs from 6 February to 22 February. Each of the three medals will have 245 pieces. The following month, in the Paralympics 137 medals each will be awarded for the three ranking. The medals were first unveiled at the Venice Olympics in July. They have a clean design, and are "discs made of ice", which consist of two halves joined by the Olympic and Paralympic symbol in the middle. Matteo Taglienti told the press on Friday that the IPZS program manager for medals had begun working with the IOC a year earlier, and production began in recent months. Both halves are meant to represent both the athlete and their network, which includes family, coaches, and team. The two halves have a frosted texture and a polish one. On the reverse of the medals, braille letters identify the respective discipline. The ribbon will be hidden by a new design inlet on all of them, but the medal's face will remain visible.
Russell: Price cut for Saudi crude oil is enough to remain competitive
Saudi Aramco's decision to reduce the price of crude oil it sells to Asian refiners in December has been seen as an attempt to gain market share, amid fears of global oversupply.
The reduction in Saudi crude oil was lower than the forecasts of Asian refiners. It seems to be a way for the world's largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, to remain competitive against other grades while giving it flexibility should China or India reject Russian barrels due U.S. sanctions.
Aramco lowered last week its official selling price for its benchmark Arab Light for Asian customers by $1 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai median for December-loading shipments.
The OSP is now at its lowest level since 11 months, down $1.20 per barrel compared to a premium for crude oil loaded in November of $2.20.
Asia's refiners who purchase about 80% Aramco seaborne exports were expecting the OSP to be reduced.
In a survey conducted before the announcement, Asian refiners predicted that Aramco will reduce the OSP for Arab Light between $1.20 to $1.50 per barrel.
The actual price reduction was below expectations. This is not consistent with the market narrative that Saudi Arabia is slashing prices to gain market share.
The lower OSP is a result of Aramco’s long-standing policy to set prices based on the dynamics of the market.
In recent weeks the premium for cash Dubai crude compared to swaps is trending down. It has averaged $1.12 per barrel this month - down from $1.73 a barrel in September.
Brent crude oil prices over Dubai have also trended lower with the swap exchange
Brent's discount compared to Middle East benchmark Dubai increased to 26 cents per barrel on Monday. This is the largest in over five years, and it was $3.77 higher a barrel just a few weeks ago.
This means that the crude grades priced against Brent will be relatively cheaper than those priced against Dubai.
Brent is the benchmark for all crudes, including grades from West Africa and Latin America, as well as U.S. grades.
Aramco's decision to reduce its December OSP ensures that its crude oil remains competitive with other grades.
Saudi crude is still in the mix for Asian refiners when they decide what they will need to process in December and January.
Uncertainty about Russia
Aramco will also be able to take advantage of any decrease in supply of Russian crude oil, which is being affected by new U.S. sanctions imposed by President Trump.
Refiners in China and India - the two main consumers of Russian crude - have been reported as looking for alternatives.
The top crude importer China is showing signs of this. According to commodity analysts Kpler, November seaborne Russian imports will fall from 1.45m barrels per day in October to about 926,000 bpd.
China's crude oil imports are also on track to increase to 1,78 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up from just 1.20 million in October.
According to Kpler's estimates, India is Asia's second largest oil importer. It will receive about 589,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude this November, down slightly from the 691,000 barrels per day it received in October.
India continues to buy Russian crude. In November, 2.26 million barrels per day are expected, compared with 1.70 million in October.
India's purchases may begin to decline in December if the refiners make good on their commitment to purchase less.
Aramco is positioned to capitalize on any supply gaps by offering more crude at prices at least comparable with other grades.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
(source: Reuters)