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Russell: China's structural shift is reflected in its weak steel production and strong imports of iron ore.
China's?weak production of steel and its robust imports of iron ore continue to contrast, and it is beginning to appear as?a structural change rather than just a temporary disruption. China, which is responsible for producing just over half the world's total steel, produced 86.63 million metric tons of steel in April. This was a 2.8% decline from the same month of 2025, and the lowest April figure since 2018. Steel production for the first four month of this year was 331.12 millions tons, down 4.1% on the same period of last year. According to official statistics, however, iron ore exports increased by 8% during the first four months this year, to 418,6 million tonnes. Imports of steel-related raw materials in April were 103.9 millions tons. This is down 0.8% compared to March's total of 104.74, but slightly higher per day due to April having one less day than March. Analysts at DBX Commodities estimate that seaborne arrivals in May will be 104.67 millions tons. The reason for the low production of steel is easy to understand, given the weakness in the property construction sector and the decline in exports. In April this year, shipments dropped?9% from the same period last year. Steel exports fell 9.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 34.2 millions tons. Iron ore imports are a result of both structural and temporary factors. BUILD INVENTORIES SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles to ensure that they are not contaminated. Holding near record highs The week ending May 22 saw inventories of 160.35 millions tons, up slightly from the previous week's 160.34 and close to the record-high 165.67million that was reached in the week prior to March 20. As steel production increases to meet demand, inventories tend to build towards the end of every year. They then peak early in the following year and decline toward the middle. Stockpiles are up 22% since the July low of 131.05 millions tons, which was 2025's lowest level. Market participants will be able to tell whether inventories will follow their usual seasonal pattern, and begin to decline as we approach the northern summer. Or if soft steel production will continue to keep them high compared with previous years. It is possible that the Iran war, and the threat of fuel shortages in Asia due to the continued closure of the Strait?Hormuz by the Iranian regime may have also encouraged Chinese steel mills to import iron ore. The lack of volatility may also be boosting import sentiment. Singapore Exchange contracts have been locked in a tight band?anchored at $105 per ton over the last 10 months. On Monday, the front-month contract closed at $109.09. Iron ore imports are driven by the decline of China's domestic iron ore production. This is further exacerbated due to the weakening of the ore grades. According to MySteel, China's first four months of the year saw an iron ore production of 326.8 millions tons, a 1% decrease from the same period the previous year. The drop in 2025 was 2.8%, from 1.04 billion tons to 983.7 millions. China's iron ore is a mixture of 20-30% iron. This means that it must be upgraded in order to match the imported grades, which are 60-65%. The process?is energy-intensive and costly. Assuming that steel production remains relatively stable, it's likely China's domestic iron ore supply will continue to decrease, which will lead to a greater share of imports. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Israeli strikes kill seven Gazans, doctors say
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza Strip killed at least seven Palestinians on Tuesday, including five in a camp for refugees and two in cars. Residents and medics said that an Israeli drone shot a missile into the air at people who were coming out of their houses when a Palestinian militia backed by Israel tried to?storm an area east Maghazi camp. At least five people died, and'several others were injured. The Israeli military has not responded to an immediate request for comment about the incident. It has been fighting Hamas militants on Palestinian territory since October?2023. Hamas has branded Israeli-backed armed groups as "Israeli collaborators" and their attacks have increased in recent weeks. Leaders of these groups who operate in areas under Israeli control say that they aim to overthrow Hamas rule. Two people were killed and several more injured by an Israeli airstrike that struck a vehicle near the southern Gaza City of Khan Younis on Tuesday afternoon, according to medics. The Israeli military said it was "a targeted strike" but did not provide any further details. A ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump in October failed to stop Israeli attacks on Gaza. Israel and Hamas have reached a deadlock in indirect negotiations over the implementation of the second phase?of the agreement, which includes disarming the group and the withdrawal of the Israeli army. Israel now controls more than half the territory of Gaza. Hamas is only in control of a small sliver along the coast. Gaza health officials, who do not differentiate between civilians and combatants, have reported that 900 Palestinians were killed by Israeli airstrikes since the truce was implemented. The Israeli military said that four Israeli soldiers were?killed' by militants in the same time period. Hamas does not reveal the number of casualties amongst its fighters. Israel claims its post-ceasefire attacks are meant to prevent attacks or stop people from approaching the armistice line between Hamas and Israel. (Reporting and editing by Nidal Al-Mughrabi)
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Coal India requests units to increase supply as heatwave fuels record demand for power
Two sources who have direct knowledge of this matter say that Coal India, the state-owned coal company, has instructed its subsidiaries to increase the supply of coal to power plants in order to avoid shortages. The country's demand for?electricity is at a record high after an intense heatwave. As a result of the record heat caused by the El Nino weather pattern, several regions are experiencing power outages, mostly at night. According to the latest data from the Central Electricity Authority (the adviser to the Power Ministry), 21 power plants are critically short of?coal, with only enough to cover less than a weeks' demand. Sources said that the world's largest coal mining company has directed its subsidiaries to maximize dispatches by using all modes of transport, including rail links which move coal directly from mines into power plants. Coal India announced on Tuesday that it had encouraged utilities, especially those in difficult-to-reach areas, to stock up in advance of the peak demand. India's peak electricity, which is a measure for the "maximum amount of electricity required", reached a record of 270.8 gigawatts last week. India's electricity is still generated by coal, despite the 228 GW capacity of non-fossil energy. Data from the company showed that Coal 'India and its eight subsidiaries, which are responsible for 80% of coal production in India, saw a 9.7% decline to?56.1 millions metric tons. The miner stated that it had 168 millions tons of coal in its possession, including 47.6 Million tons at power plants. This is enough to meet 19 days' consumption. It said that the stocks at mines were 113.5 million tonnes as of May 23. This was an increase of about 10% compared to a year ago. Sethuraman NR, Nidhi verma, and Emelia Sithole Matarise edited the report.
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After US strike on Iran, European stocks drop and oil prices rise
European stock indexes lost some of their recent gains on Tuesday, and oil prices rose as a result. Investors' hopes that a U.S. peace deal with Iran was imminent were dampened by?new U.S. attacks in southern Iran. The market sentiment has improved over the last week, as traders have bet on the de-escalation of the U.S. and Israel war against Iran. This conflict began late February and has caused severe disruptions in Middle East oil supplies. They revised this view after the U.S. announced on Monday that it had conducted what it called defensive attacks in southern Iran. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran may "take several days" as talks continue. STOXX 600 at 1051 GMT was down 0.2% for the day but close to its highest level since the beginning of the war. London's FTSE 100 rose 0.7%, while Germany's DAX fell 0.5%. The MSCI World Equity Index remained?flat' but has risen 3.8% this month. Peter Schaffrik is a global macro strategist with RBC Capital Markets. He said the Middle East uncertainty was weighing heavily on markets. "It's not clear what's happening there," he said. He was referring to U.S. president Donald Trump's statement on Monday that he had asked additional countries to sign Abraham Accords while he was trying to negotiate an end to the war. Wall Street futures still pointed to further gains in stocks for the U.S. day, with S&P500 eminis up by 0.7%, and Nasdaq minis up by 1.1%. Brent crude futures rose 2.4% to $98.50 per barrel on the same day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 4.7% since Friday's closing price of $92.04. Due to the US Memorial Day holiday, there was no WTI settlement Monday. Schaffrik noted that there was still some optimism on the market as traders held onto the hope that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon. Brent crude is down from its peak of $120 in late April. European traders also considered comments made by Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, who said that even if peace talks with Iran are successful, the central bank should increase interest rates in June. She said that the conflict is taking longer than expected and that high energy prices are affecting the economy. Money market traders have priced in a 90 percent chance of a rate hike at the ECB meeting scheduled for June. The yields on European bonds rose after the U.S. strike, but the benchmark German 10-year yield was still near its lowest level in nearly seven weeks, at 2.9642%. Last week, yields dropped as investors became less worried about the impact of war on inflation and growth. U.S. government bond prices rose as investors remained 'hopeful' about a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index was unchanged at 99.026 dollars, and the euro was flat at $1.1642. The dollar rose 0.1% to 159.12 Japanese yen. Gold fell by 0.8% to $4,534.86. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Sharon Singleton, Muralikumar Aantharaman and Jan Harvey).
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Russian oil prices are down by 11% so far in May compared to April
Calculations showed that the price of Russian oil in roubles dropped by 11% from April to May as 'the rouble strengthened' and global 'oil prices? eased due to expectations of an agreement ending the Iranian war. The Russian authorities use the price of oil in roubles to calculate the mineral extraction tax. This levy is the single largest tax on the oil sector, and it accounts for around a fifth of the total Russian budget revenue. The calculations show that the price of oil fell to 6,518 Roubles per barrel over the period May 1-22, from the average April price of 7,299 Rubles. This was the highest level since October 2023. The rouble price is still about 20% higher than the?federal budget target for 2026. This assumes that the rouble price per barrel will be 5,440 roubles, or $59, and the rouble rate per dollar to be 92.2. The price is the basis for Russia's budget revenue and expenses. The film was filmed 'before U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran at the end of Feburary unleashed a surge in Middle Eastern conflict and an unprecedented disruption to energy supply. Prices for international oil traded Tuesday at just under $100 per barrel. This is down from a spike of over $120 in April. Barbara Lewis (Reporting)
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The wrong kind of 'boom to start the week'
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets After a long holiday weekend in the United States, and other countries, markets were ready to celebrate signs that a peace plan with Iran was close to agreement. World crude prices fell nearly 7% on Monday, to below $100 a barrel. According to reports, the peace plan being discussed would include a 60-day extension of ceasefire and an eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The news of the latest U.S. strikes against Iranian targets overnight exacerbated doubts about how quickly a final document could be agreed. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. Wrong kind of 'boom' to start the week news? Fresh U.S. strike on Tuesday described as defensive by Washington saw oil reverse some losses from the previous day, with Brent crude increasing about?3%, but remaining below $100 a barrel. Stocks were mixed with European shares wobbly, and Wall Street futures showing a positive trend. This came after Monday's rally, which saw European?shares soar and Japan's Nikkei reach a new record high. Markets seem to believe that a deal will be reached soon, despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump added a condition that regional countries normalize their relations with Israel. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, also warned that negotiations with Iran might "take a couple days". Tuesday may not be as booming a start to the week that many expected. The day's economic data will be dominated by the U.S. Consumer Confidence readings for the month of May. The report will be closely monitored, given that the University of Michigan equivalent survey has reached a new low. The rest of the week will be dominated by inflation updates. As long as gas prices are high, the news won't be calming for the rates markets. Christopher Waller, a former dovish Federal Reserve Board member, said on Friday that he would join other policymakers in voting to remove language in the Fed's most recent policy statement which indicated an apparent "easing" bias. At the swearing-in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday, Trump took a more ambiguous stance on Fed policy. He said Warsh was free to make whatever decision he thought best. Fed futures price in 'at least one rate increase over the next 12 months, and central banks from the euro zone and Japan will likely raise rates as early as next month. Chart of the Day The chipmaker stock frenzy has been boosted in China after tech giant Huawei Technologies announced that it will produce industry-leading semiconductors with a new technology within five years. This news highlights Beijing's efforts in neutralizing U.S. restrictions that made it difficult for China to manufacture cutting-edge semiconductors. As HK markets reopened on Tuesday after a long holiday, an?index tracking Hong Kong listed chipmakers surged 6%. This was led by Hua Hong Semiconductor & Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. Watch today's events * U.S. consumer confidence in May (10 a.m.?EDT). * U.S. 2-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT) Want to receive the "Morning bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is a non-partisan organization that adheres to the Trust Principles and values integrity, independence, freedom from bias, and impartiality.
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Aluminium prices rise to their highest level in over four years due to supply concerns
Aluminum prices reached their highest level in over four years on Tuesday as rising feedstock prices, alumina,?added?to persistent concerns?about a tightening?market amid a?reduced supply from Gulf producers. The London Metal Exchange's three-month aluminium rose by 1.4%, to $3,698.50 at 0937 GMT, after reaching $3,707.5. This is the highest level since March 24, 2020. On March 7, 2022 the metal reached a record high of $4.073.5, as markets grappled with the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion in Ukraine. A 5% increase in September alumina contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which rose to their highest level since early May due to concerns about supplies of bauxite raw material from Guinea, supported aluminium prices on Tuesday. Guinea, which is the top bauxite-producing country in the world, has been considering the introduction of export quotas to mining companies, as shipping costs are on the rise, and reducing the revenue for the country. Bloomberg News cited an official as saying that Guinea expects to finalise its new policy by June. The LME Aluminium Cash Contract premium is still higher than the benchmark due to the reduced supply of aluminium from the Gulf producers during the Iran War. Last week, the price of a tonne was $71, indicating a shortage in supply. Analysts at Citi stated in a report last week that the Middle East conflict had triggered the biggest aluminium supply shock for at least 50 years. This has led to accelerated inventory?drawdowns this year of approximately 3 million tons from historically low levels, and prompted strong futures purchases. Copper fell 0.3% in other?LME Metals to $13,617.50 per ton. According to a?body, the global?refined market had a surplus in January-March of 396,000 tonnes. Zinc increased 1.3% to $3.588.50. Lead gained 0.5% to $2.020. Tin added 0.7% at $54,570. Nickel lost 1.1% at $18,695. In the earlier session, LME zinc, copper and tin reached their highest levels since mid-May. Lead also touched its highest level since late January. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Polina Devitt)
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Oil prices rise as US strikes Iran, causing European stocks to fall
The European stock market indexes fluctuated on Tuesday. They retreated?slightly? from recent gains and oil prices rose after the U.S. launched new strikes in southern Iran, which?diminished investors' hopes that a U.S./Iran peace agreement could be imminent. The market sentiment has improved over the last week as traders have bet that the U.S. and Israel war against Iran will de-escalate. This conflict, which began in late-February, has caused severe disruptions in Middle East oil supplies. On Tuesday, traders revised their view after the U.S. announced on Monday that they had conducted what they called defensive strikes in south Iran. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran may "take a couple of days" as?talks are ongoing. At 843 GMT the STOXX 600 was down 0.2% for the day but close to its highest level since the beginning of the war. London's FTSE 100 rose 0.7%, while Germany's DAX - which was down 0.7% - fell 0.7%. The MSCI World Equity Index was flat but up 3.8% this month. Peter Schaffrik is a global macro strategist with RBC Capital Markets. He said the uncertainty in the Middle East was weighing heavily on markets. He said that the markets were impacted by the uncertainty in the Middle East. Brent Crude futures rose 3.6% to $99.64 per barrel on the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 3.7% since Friday's closing price, to $93.09. Due to the U.S. Memorial Day Holiday, there was no WTI settlement Monday. There was still some optimism, said Schaffrik, as traders held onto the hope that traffic would soon be allowed to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is down from its peak of $120 in late April. European traders also considered 'comments made by European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel. She said that the central banks should raise interest rates in June even if ongoing peace talks with Iran result in a deal. The conflict has lasted much longer than expected and high energy costs are affecting the wider economy. Money market traders have priced in a?90% chance of a rate hike at the ECB meeting in June. The yields on European bonds rose after the U.S. The benchmark 10-year German bond yield is still near its lowest level in nearly seven weeks at 2.9792%. Last week, yields fell as investors became less worried about the impact of war on inflation and economic growth. U.S. government bonds rose as investors remained hopeful of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index was unchanged at 99.081, and the euro dropped less than 0.1% to $1.1636 on the same day. The dollar rose 0.2% versus the Japanese yen to 159.22. Gold fell around 1.1% to $4,522.5. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Muralikumar Aantharaman and Sharon Singleton).
Russia fails to sell its stake in UGC gold miner
The federal property management agency announced on Tuesday that Russia had failed to sell a stake in the gold producer Uzhuralzoloto, which it seized last year. This is a major blow to the Russian government, as it attempts to reduce budget pressures.
A Russian court ruled in July last year that the majority of UGC owned by Konstantin Strukov should be confiscated and transferred to state. This was part of a larger pattern of nationalisation.
This latest auction comes after a failed sale of Strukov’s assets in May. The?lot included a stake of 67.2% in UGC, which was valued at 162.02 billion rubles ($2.22 billion).
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The auction was declared invalid this time because only one bidder had submitted a complete application and paid the deposit. The agency Rosimushchestvo said that a second bidder failed to pay the deposit or provide the necessary documents.
The agency hasn't said if it will be holding another auction.
The failed sale comes at a time when budget pressures are increasing. Finance Ministry had planned to sell its stake by 2025. It did not respond to a question for comment.
The sale was structured in a Dutch auction where the price is gradually reduced until a bidder is found. The stake could have been sold for as low as 50% of the original asking price.
In January, the Domodedovo Airport in Moscow was sold at Dutch auctions for a?minimum price of $869?million, with only one bidder.
In the afternoon, shares on the Moscow Exchange were down 7.67%. (Reporting by Anastasia Lyrchikova. Additional reporting by Darya Korsunskaya. Writing by Alessandra Prentice. Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
(source: Reuters)