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As global warming transforms Mediterranean, invasive species flourish.
Pepis the skipper of the small fishing boat catches two lionfish in experimental?traps near the coast of Cyprus. He cuts off their spines and guts them before tossing them into a bucket. Around him, he sees the Mediterranean as a 'pane of glass. Its calm surface gives a 'little hint of dramatic underwater transformation. Pepis' routine is part of a larger effort by scientists in order to track and control invasive species like lionfish. The Suez Canal and warming sea temperatures have led to a change in the way life is lived here. According to a recent study by the Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters and Arts, scientists from 11 countries conducted research to estimate that a new species enters the Mediterranean every 2 weeks. The report stated that there were more than 1,000 non native species in the Mediterranean. This is up from the 800 or so counted by another study conducted by the European Environment Agency between 2012 and 2017. Experts said that tropical species from the Red Sea, and elsewhere, are dislodging native species and changing food chains. They also threaten fisheries. This is another example of climate change's impact on Europe this summer, which caused record heatwaves, fires and drought. It's also a major concern for environmentalists. Despite only accounting for 0.8% of global ocean area the Mediterranean is home to a large number of marine species, some estimate as high as 18%. "Changes are drastic, particularly since 2000,"?said Periklis Kleito, a marine biologist at the Cyprus Marine and Environmental Research Lab (MER), which is researching ways to reduce invasive species' impact. "We are seeing more and more non-indigenous species dominating the marine environment, but fewer native species." NEW ARRIVALS TAKE OVER The lionfish is a punk-like creature with a mohican spiky on top of a permanent frown. Scientists say that it has no known predators in the Mediterranean, and has an appetite for local fish and crustaceans. Around Cyprus, MER tests selective traps that attract lionfishes and blue crabs but allow other species to escape. In Greece, alien species are becoming more common and disrupting the marine ecosystems. Paraskevi Karachale, director of research at the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, says that more than 230 species have invaded Greek waters over the past decades. The newcomers affect the ecosystem in different ways. Karachle said that rabbitfish, which graze on algae to create barren areas under the sea, compete with native Mediterranean herbivorous species. Lagocephalus, or silver-cheeked pufferfish is a carnivore with toxins that can be deadly to humans. It attacks other fish, and has been linked to reports of decreased octopus catch. It looks like an aggressive bruiser, with bulging eyeballs and buck teeth. The Greek and Cypriot governments have given out bountys to fishermen who catch pufferfish. "Invasive species have taken over our seas and this affects local biodiversity?as?well as the economy," said Christina Kakoulli a marine scientist at MER. Looking for ways to adapt Scientists are searching for ways to adapt. One way to adapt is to make consumers accustomed to eating different types of fish. Once the spines have been removed, lionfish can be eaten. Pepis, the skipper, suggests that you dust it with flour prior to frying. "At first people were scared, but now they know it's a delicious, high-quality fish," said Petros Yanangou, a Chef who works with MER in Life Prometheus. The project is funded by the European Union and looks for ways to reduce the accidental capture of rays and sharks while encouraging harvesting invasive species. Markets are opening up in?Lebanon, Turkey and Tunisia. Atlantic blue crabs also have customers there. Karachle, a Greek marine researcher, said that Greek researchers tested methods to remove toxins from pufferfish so they could be used as fishmeal in the production of farmed seabass. Researchers have also explored the use of alien species for cosmetics, food supplements and leather products. It may be easier to find uses for these newcomers than to pinpoint a single trigger for their impact and spread. Scientists believe that the situation requires long-term, sustained monitoring. Kleitou stated that the sea was very complex. It has so many variables that are all interacting simultaneously. (Written by Michele Kambas, edited by Edward McAllister & Keith Weir).
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Spain prepares to eclipse in the shadow of wildfire risks
Spain is launching a massive public safety campaign and police operation ahead of a rare solar eclipse that will occur on August 12th, which coincides with the highest risk period for wildfires in the country. The regional governments in Spain along the path of the eclipse, which offers the best view of the solar event on mainland Europe, are trying to attract 6 million visitors by establishing 660 official viewing areas along with camping and parking facilities. Virginia Barcones is the secretary-general of Civil Protection and Emergencies in Spain's Interior Ministry. She said that more than 35,000 officers would be deployed to minimize risks, such as fires from dropped cigarettes, associated with large gatherings held in natural areas. "We had a very tough summer in Spain with another series of major forest fires. Barcones stated that we should limit any activity which could cause a spark. Temperatures to reach 40 degrees Celsius The control room in Madrid is where the authorities will coordinate a surveillance operation with regional governments. The total solar eclipse visible only in Spain and Iceland at early evening on Wednesday is a good example of the way climate change will affect major public events. Aemet, the Spanish weather agency, has issued an alert for several Spanish regions on the day of eclipse. This is due to temperatures of up to 40° Celsius (104° Fahrenheit), and a high or very high wildfire risk. Spain, France, and Greece have all battled severe wildfires and heatwaves in an increasingly tinder dry Europe this summer. Three major wildfires had been burning in the provinces Huelva and Segovia by Monday evening. According to the Environment Ministry, so far this year fires have scorched 200,000 hectares, six times as much as they would by 2025. "This is the worst time of the year" Raul de La Calle, Secretary-General of the Association of Forest Technical Engineers said that statistically this is the week in which the most fires happen in Spain. FEAR OF RURAL CROWDS Residents of small towns are launching their own campaigns to encourage visitors to avoid sensitive natural sites. Monte en Pie, a local group that aims to keep forests alive, staged a demonstration in Buitrago, a small town north of Madrid. Tres Cantos, a nearby town, cancelled all events for the eclipse day due to wildfire risk. However, around 3,000 people including Madrid's regional leaders are still expected to attend an observation site near Buitrago. Monte en Pie argues, that although the eclipse may only last?a few moments, the damage done?by a wildfire of a significant size could last for decades. "We live in an area with a high risk of wildfires." The countryside is very dry, so it's not allowed to barbecue or use machinery. Ana Hernandez, group leader, said that the more people present, the greater danger. Around 1.5 million people are expected to be driving in rural Spain, northwestern Spain and central Spain during the day. Local and national authorities have launched campaigns to raise public awareness. They warn in social media, local media, and online visitor forums against littering, parking in unauthorised areas and using barbecues. However, fire risks don't seem to deter astro-tourists. Booking.com, a travel platform, reported that foreign searches in cities like Burgos and Soria had more than tripled. Amadeus data revealed that bookings for Asturias' northern region were up by 292% compared to a year ago. According to the industry association ASEICAR, 70% of Spain's motorhomes, caravans and campervans are already booked for eclipse-related travel. This is around 500,000 vehicles. Corina Pons, Aislinn laing and David Holmes edited the article.
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German far-right influential seeks US funding for new media networks
The Handelsblatt newspaper in Germany reported that a 'German far-right influential whose online postings have been 'amplified by Elon Musk?has applied to the U.S. State Department for funding to launch a network of media for political content. Naomi Seibt is a self-professed Libertarian who supports the far-right Alternative for Germany. She told Handelsblatt she had applied for a U.S. State Department program that supports European organizations focused on free speech, national sovereignty and the impact of immigration. Seibt, a reporter for the outlet, said that a decision is still pending on the application. Seibt didn't respond to a request for comments sent by. State Department did not have any immediate comments. The 25-year old plans to launch "Freedom Alliance of the West", a network that will include a social media channel and collaboration with lawyers who are involved in cases of free speech, alternative media outlets and voting institutes. Seibt became famous as a skeptic of climate change and then became 'one of the German commentators Musk engaged with most often on his social media 'platform X. According to the report, Seibt requested political asylum in the United States during the past year. (Writing and editing by Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine)
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Aluminum reaches seven-week peak on declining stocks
Aluminum prices climbed?for the seventh time in seven sessions on Tuesday as concerns about a tight supply?and an ongoing shortage?boosted light metal. Benchmark 'three-month' aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.01% to $3,351 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. This was the highest price for aluminum since June 23. The most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.89%, to 24,250 yuan (about $3,595.15) per ton. This is its highest level since June 15. Rupankar RM is the head of AL Circle's market research and data analytics. "Aluminium’s rise reflects the continued tightness on the physical market. LME inventories are extremely low, and the supply from Bahrain and UAE has yet to fully recover," Rupankar RM said. The U.S. - Iran war has caused a disruption in aluminium shipments originating from Middle East producers, who account for 9%?of?global capacity. The hopes of a 'deal' between the two nations faded Tuesday when U.S. president Donald Trump demanded Iranian compensation. A rising dollar has dampened copper's support due to supply concerns. A more expensive dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities more expensive for those using other currencies. The price of copper on the LME fell 0.16% while the price on the SHFE rose 0.31%. Cash-to-three month spread on the LME The price of a ton dropped sharply from $145.5 to $145.5, indicating a tight physical availability. LME stocks of red metal As traders consider a possible U.S. import tariff on refined copper, prices have dropped sharply. Market participants are closely monitoring macroeconomic data to determine inflation and what it could mean for interest rate changes. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said that higher rates are likely to affect industrial metals because they will weigh on economic growth. Zinc fell?0.08% on the LME, while lead remained stable, nickel remained?steady, and tin dropped 0.53%. Zinc gained 0.41% among SHFE metals. Lead gained 1.02%. Nickel lost 0.38%. Tin lost 1.04%.
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Stocks and farm gains over decades strengthen the food system in the face of a'super El Nino'
The global food system is more resilient than ever to the "super" El Nino this year, thanks to the near-record inventories and technological advancements as well as the growth of important exporters like Brazil and Russia. UN Food and Agriculture Organization and analysts claim that since 1980, world farm production has exceeded consumption and population growth. Changes have been driven by the use of higher-yielding crop varieties, fertilisers, improved irrigation, and crop protection. These changes have led to increased yields in staple crops such as rice, wheat corn, and soybeans. Andrew Whitelaw, Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3, said that even during drought conditions we can still produce marketable crops. The potential impact of global food prices and supplies is real, but because we are better prepared than in the past decades, disruptions will be much less severe. EL NINO GATHERS A FORCE El Nino's dryness has already affected crop planting in large parts of Asia including India, Southeast Asia, and Australia. The Iran War and its shortages of diesel and fertiliser have also increased global food production risk. India is experiencing a monsoon that's not enough, and the weather in Australia's major wheat-growing areas will be drier. Crops across Southeast Asia, such as those in Indonesia and Thailand, also suffer from a lack of moisture. El Nino, already strong, will intensify during the fourth quarter of this year and into early next, according to Chris Hyde, an American-based meteorologist with satellite data?and imagery company SkyFi. The impact of dryness is yet to be felt, even though it's expected to be the strongest ever. El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean surface temperatures warm up in the eastern and central Pacific. It brings rain to the Americas, but dries out much of Asia. In both 1997-98 and 2016-17, El Nino episodes were severe enough to reduce the production of important crops. This led to food shortages and inflation, and also slowed economic growth. After a drought in Brazil, India Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in the years before, sugar and palm oils prices jumped, and tight rice supplies forced Southeast Asian producers into reducing exports. The drought also forced the southern African countries, including Australia, to increase their corn imports. Record inventories Precision agriculture, improved irrigation, drought-tolerant seed, better weather forecasting and near-record grain stocks are all poised to mitigate the impact of this time. Ashwini Bansod is vice president of commodities research at Phillip Capital India. She said that sowing in India has been on track, despite a significant initial delay. Rains in September and August will be critical for maturation and grain formation. India, which exports 40% of the world's rice, is so overstocked that it has exhausted its storage capacity for stockpiles equal to more than an entire year of global exports. China holds nearly half of the ample global wheat stock, as it is the top grain producer and consumer in the world. This reserve should help to curb imports if a drought affects production at Australia's main supplier. The global palm oil stocks are nearing historic highs. However, Indonesia's aggressive Biodiesel program is likely to reduce inventories over the coming months. About 60% of the world's edible oil is palm oil. EXPORTERS RUSSIA BRAZIL Export hubs have emerged in recent decades that were not as common a decade ago. This has resulted in a significant increase of supplies on global markets. Brazil has, for instance, become the world’s largest soybean supplier, with exports more than tripling since 1997/98. Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments increased to 48 million tonnes last year, from around 1 million tons during 1997/98. Researchers have developed drought-tolerant hybrids, which are widely used in Africa and the Americas. They help farmers to maintain their yields when there is erratic rain and periods of dryness. In India and Australia too, heat- and drought-tolerant varieties of wheat have gained popularity. Plant breeding advances have improved plant resistance to heat and water stress, reducing the risk for severe losses due to adverse weather. Short-duration rice helps farmers in South and Southeast Asia cope with the increasingly unpredictable monsoon rainfall. Farmers now have a range of digital tools that were not available during El Nino in?1997-98. These include satellite-based crop monitoring, seasonal climate forecasts, high-resolution maps of soil moisture and GPS-guided fertilizer application. Maximo Torero, FAO's Chief Economist, said that governments have better information and can prepare sooner. "Our forecasting has improved, as well as our market transparency." AI-powered platforms are attracting farmers who want to get timely advice on when to plant, how to use fertiliser, and pest management. Experts warned that wars in the Middle East, the Black Sea and other regions could temper this optimism. Torero stated that "much will depend on the conditions in the second half of the year 2026. This is due to the lower use of agricultural inputs as a result of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the higher prices of fertilisers." The Strait of Hormuz was responsible for about a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas before it became blocked during the Iran War that began in early February. This caused global fuel and fertiliser supply to be disrupted.
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Merafe profits up 64% as China ramps production
Merafe Resources reported a 64% increase in its half-year profits on Tuesday, as higher prices for chrome ore and sales offset the impact of lower ferrochrome production. Merafe’s headline?earnings were 518 million rand (31.98 millions) for the six-month period ending June 30 compared with 315 million rand in the same period of last year. The revenue from chrome ore rose by 78% compared to the previous period, reaching 1.8?billion Rand. This was due to an increase of 75% in the volume of chrome ore sold compared to the first half last year. Chrome ore prices rose by 11% in the period. The attributable ferrochrome produced by the company from its joint ventures with Glencore fell 75%, to 28,000 tons during the last six months. The main reason for this was the suspension of production at Wonderkop?and Boshoek smelters as well as the partial closure of Lion smelter. Merafe has announced that it will restart Wonderkop and Boshoek in June after the South African energy regulator Nersa approved an a discount on power tariffs for struggling ferrochrome manufacturers. The smelter Lion was able to resume operations in February. Ferrochrome is an iron-chromium-alloy used in the production of stainless steel. It's manufactured in "energy-intensive" smelters. Merafe stated that the outlook for ferrochrome during the second half of the year was dimmed due to a possible glut, a result of increased supply coming from China and weak stainless steel demand globally. South Africa has lost its top position in the processing of chrome into ferrochrome to China primarily due to high electricity costs. The 'South African government intervened with a 54% cut in electricity tariffs to prevent more smelter closings.
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Mike Dolan: Trump reopens Fed fight at critical moment for bond markets
Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, has been fighting to keep the central banks out of politics. Last week, any hope that U.S. president Donald Trump would grant him breathing space evaporated when the White House targeted Fed governor Lisa Cook. This brought the independence of the central bank back into focus. Trump's renewed effort to remove Cook from her position as Fed chair over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud suggests two things. First, the administration is worried that the Fed may raise interest rates next month. Second, the president knows his appointee will not be able to stop this, even if it was in his best interests. Cook's public pressure could backfire, and she may be emboldened to join 'the hawks' if Trump does not remove her. There is also a possibility that the president will use her as a scapegoat in the event of policy tightening at the last two meetings before the midterm elections. He would counterpunch by saying that any rate increase was politically motivated to disobey him. The futures market sees a roughly 75% chance that a quarter point rate hike will occur by midterms. The main factors are the nearly six-year-long inflationary trend above target and the elevated core prices, along with the Iran-related energy price shock in the last six months. The outcome of the meeting on September 15-16 is viewed as a coin flip. Cook's Friday political jab was probably aware of this. Trump's renewed attempt to remove Cook came in the form of a White House Letter saying that he was "considering". He also demanded a response from her within three weeks regarding what her lawyer has described as "baseless" allegations. This move came despite the June Supreme Court ruling which recognized the Fed's statutory protections but left open the question whether these allegations were grounds for removal. Cook has had a year to clear her name, even with the Supreme Court's pushback. Trump is now giving Cook three weeks to do so before the critical Fed meeting, where each vote counts on the increasingly divided committee. Tim Duy of SGH 'Macro Advisors, chief U.S. economics at the firm, wrote that "the issue of Fed autonomy has not yet resolved." This suggests Warsh may be unwilling or unable of supporting Trump's longstanding push to slash interest rates in response to elevated inflation. Warsh probably wishes that he was given more space to finish his reforms, and to make his policy case both internal and externally. This is especially true given the market's dissatisfaction with his vague inflation target and his preference for less communication. Keeping his distance could prove to be difficult. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had called Warsh, the Fed chairman since he took over the top job in May. Trump called Warsh brilliant late last month and blamed his board of directors for not lowering interest rates immediately. The White House seems to have a renewed focus on the board. Duy explained the implications for the markets and economy if Trump is successful. "If Trump wins, and only the accusation and ability to respond are necessary to replace Fed Governors, expect appointees that are willing to lower rates sharply like former Fed Gov. Stephen Miran," Duy stated. As of now, three members from this year's Federal Open Market Committee voted for a rate hike last month. Governors Chris Waller, and Cook voted against it, but both indicated that the Fed might have to tighten up to bring inflation above target back to its long-term 2% goal. If both of them voted for a rate hike next month, then the 9-3 split that was in favor of keeping rates would be 7-5. Jerome Powell, the former Fed chair and Trump's nemesis who is still on the board through his term ending in early 2028, could split the FOMC by voting for a rate hike. A second big question is whether Warsh publicly back Cook as Powell did, in the absence proven guilt. How should the markets react? It is difficult to get a clear picture of the Fed's thinking ahead of this week’s consumer and producer prices inflation reports. These are the two major factors that influence Fed policy. Over the last 18 months, higher long-term Treasury rates and a weaker dollar has periodically appeared during intense bursts in the Fed independence saga. However, it is unclear whether investors view the issue as corrosive. It is best to look at the impact of Warsh's fuzzier inflation targets, combined with the renewed political pressure to fill the board with rate-cutting advocates. This combination could increase long-term inflation premiums on bond markets. Barclays strategists said this week that if July was the beginning of the Fed losing confidence in its willingness to defend inflation targets, then the long term is under-pricing risk. They cited a notable change in the yields on long-dated bonds and inflation expectations following Warsh's latest press conference. The next two weeks are therefore of particular importance, according to us. The Fed's credibility and confidence in the market should be closely monitored to see how much damage was done, if any, to medium- and longterm inflation compensation. Warsh, of course could stamp his independence at the next meeting by voting for the hawks. If this unlikely outcome does not occur, then doubts will be raised about the Fed's commitment to price stabilization and its independence from White House politics at a time when the bond market is vulnerable. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Gold falls from two-month high, inflation reports are in focus
Investors focused on inflation data to get clues about the U.S. rate outlook. Gold spot was down 0.3% at $4,374.82 an ounce as of 0548 GMT after reaching its highest level in the session since June 5, $4,434.82. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.4% to $4435.00. Ahmad Assiri is a Research Strategist for Pepperstone. He said that the move higher in gold's early session trading above $4,400 was primarily driven by renewed flows and a noticeable shift in metal market sentiment. If?this change of sentiment continues to attract more flows, this could be an important factor in determining if gold can 'consolidate around $ 4,400 and possibly extend the recovery toward higher levels. After last week's disappointing July U.S. job data, markets lowered their bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates in September. Three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Gold tends to be supported by lower interest rates as it pays no interest. If the data continues to show a cooling economy without a meaningful rise in inflation, then markets may reduce expectations of a tighter policy. This would likely make the dollar more vulnerable, and give gold another support. In a 'rhetorical escalation that is likely to complicate efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz, U.S. president Donald Trump has responded 'to Iran’s conditions for a deal by demanding that Iran pay compensation for those killed in wars, protests and attacks. Silver spot fell by 1.7%, to $64.64, while platinum dropped 0.4%, to $1745.68, and palladium fell 0.8%, to $1372.44. (Reporting and editing by Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru. Subhranshu Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
Gold falls from over a two-month high, inflation reports are in focus
Investors are focusing on upcoming inflation figures for clues about the U.S. rate outlook.
Gold spot was down 0.5% at $4,365.65 an ounce as of 0726 GMT after reaching its highest level since the June 5 session earlier in that session.
U.S. Gold Futures remained steady at $4,424.90.
Ahmad Assiri is a Research Strategist for Pepperstone. He said that the move up in gold's early session trading above $4,400 was primarily driven by renewed flows and a "notable" shift in metal market sentiment.
If this change in sentiment continues to attract more flows, it will be a key factor determining whether or not gold can consolidate at $4,400 and potentially extend its recovery to higher levels.
After last week's disappointing July U.S. job data, markets lowered their bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates in September.
The Federal Reserve held rates at the same level during its meeting in July, although three officials were against a rate increase.
Gold tends to be supported by lower interest rates as it pays no interest.
If the data continues to show a cooling in the economy, without a meaningful resurgence of inflation, then markets may reduce expectations that tighter policies will be implemented. Fawad Rasaqzada is a Forex.com market analyst. He said that this would likely 'leave dollar vulnerable' and give gold a supportive background.
In a rhetorical escalation that is likely to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. president Donald Trump has responded 'to Iran's demands for a deal by demanding that Iran pay compensation for those killed in wars, protests and attacks.
Silver spot fell by 1.9%, to $64.49; platinum dropped 0.5%, to $1744.25; and palladium dropped 0.7%, to $1373.09. (Reporting and editing by Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru. Subhranshu Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
(source: Reuters)