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VEGOILS-Palm rises on strong Dalian palm olein, crude oil prices
Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Monday for the fourth consecutive session, following the strength of crude?oil and Dalian palm olein. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the 'Bursa Malaysia derivatives exchange had gained 85 ringgit or 1.86% to 4,657 Ringgit ($1,184.99), a metric tonne. A Kuala Lumpur based trader reported that Dalian palm oil futures had seen strong gains during the morning Asian sessions, when it traded at its highest price since June 2022. The trader said that "the market was also supported" by "firmer crude oil price." Dalian's soyoil contract with the highest volume increased by 0.34% while palm oil contracts grew by 2.52%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.95%. As palm oil competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oil?market, it tracks the price movements of its rival edible oils. The price of crude oil rose, as investors focused on threats to Middle East oil installations, despite U.S. president Donald Trump's request for nations to assist in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz - a vital artery used for energy shipments around the world. Palm oil is a better option as a feedstock for biodiesel due to the stronger crude oil futures. Intertek Testing Services, a cargo surveyor, estimated that exports for Malaysian palm oils products from March 1-15 were up 43.5% compared to a month earlier. AmSpec Agri Malaysia will release its estimates later that day. The ringgit (the currency used to trade palms) strengthened by 0.15% against dollars, increasing the price of the commodity for buyers who hold foreign currencies. Indonesia's senior economic minister has said that if needed, the government may have to impose additional taxes on certain commodities such as palm oil in order to lessen the impact of rising oil prices on the budget. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil could test support at 4,494 ringgit a metric tonne after twice failing to break through resistance at 4,612 ringsgit.
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Indian shares are up, but Middle East conflict limits gains
India's benchmark indexes rose on Monday morning, rebounding from their worst week for years. However, investors remain?wary that crude oil will continue to rise above $100 per barrel amid the prolonged Middle East conflict. As of 10:08 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.2%, to 23,189. The BSE Sensex increased by 0.18%, to 74697.2. Nine out of 16 major sectors were higher. Mid-cap and small cap fell by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. The U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran has led to the closure of Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of global oil?and?gas shipments. Brent crude was hovering around $104 per barrel as U.S. president Donald Trump called on other countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rising are bad for India, the third largest crude importer in the world, because they can increase the fiscal deficit and inflation, which will negatively impact the growth. V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. Vijayakumar stated that foreign portfolio investors will likely continue to sell Indian equities even if the markets rise. Since the start of the war, foreign portfolio investors sold Indian shares totaling more than $5 billion in March. This is a record monthly outflow. Citi, the broker, has lowered the year-end target for the benchmark Nifty 50 index from 28,500 to 27,000 points. The reason given was the impact that higher crude oil prices have had on the economy and earnings. The gains on Monday in Indian markets were similar to those of their Asian counterparts, who rose by 0.4%. Consumer stocks rose 0.7%, while heavyweight financials gained 0.6% to lead the gains in India. IDBI Bank's share price fell 13.3% following?media reports that the Indian government would?shelve bids received for the sale of a majority stake in the lender.
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JSW Steel unit eyes debut $1 billion shorter-duration debt issue, bankers say
Two merchant bankers on Monday said that India's JSW Kalinga Steel is set to issue its first shorter-duration bonds before the end of this month, as it aims to raise up to 95 billion rupees (about $1.03 billion). Bankers said that the company will likely sell two tranches with a five-year term each. The aim is to raise 60 billion rupees or 35 billion rupees through these bond sales. The notes would have zero-coupon paper and put and call options. Crisil rated the bonds of JKSL as AA. The ratings took into account the credit support that was expected from JKSL’s joint venture partners JSW Steel, and Japan-based JFE Steel Corporation. One of the bankers cited above said that "most of the top mutual fund companies have signed up as anchor investors and the bidding will take place at the end of this week, or early next," The bankers asked for anonymity as they were 'not authorized to speak to the media.' JKSL, however, did not respond to an email asking for comment. JSW Kalinga Steel, a 100% subsidiary of Piombino Steel Ltd., also holds a 100% shareholding in JSW Sambalpur Steel Ltd. These?entities were formed to own and operate Bhushan Power Steel Ltd.
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Chinese iron ore buyers ease buying ban
Iron ore futures fell from their two-month highs as China's state-backed buyer of iron ore eased its?ban until next week on a top-miner BHP product, while weaker steel production?and property statistics weighed on sentiment. As of 0237 GMT, the?most traded? May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.92% higher/lower. It was 807.5 yuan (US$117.08) per metric ton. Sources said that China will ease a ban on BHP's?Jimblebar fines, an iron ore product, until next week. This comes only a day after Beijing expanded restrictions against its third-largest supplier. Sources said that China would ease the ban on BHP’s iron ore product?Jimblebar fins until next week. This comes only one day after Beijing tightened restrictions on its third largest supplier. China Mineral Resources Group (the state-run iron ore buyer) told domestic steelmills they could already take delivery of Jimblebar?fines at ports in a week. Steelmakers and traders are excluded from the exception. CMRG banned steelmakers and traders in September from buying Jimblebar Fines. It has gradually expanded these restrictions, and most recently, this week, while it negotiates the terms of BHP’s 2026 Supply Contract. Statistically, the world's largest steelmaker produced 160.34 millions tons of "crude steel" in January and February, a 3.6% decrease from last year, according to the Statistics Bureau. Beijing has promised to reduce industrial production, including steel, in an orderly fashion as it struggles with persistent overcapacity. In February, home prices in China continued to drop. This indicates that the property sector remains troubled despite some signs of improvement. Steelhome, a consultancy, reported on March 13 that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports had increased by 2.24 percent. Coking coal and coke are also included in the list of steelmaking ingredients that harden. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks have mostly gained. Hot-rolled coil remained unchanged, while wire rod increased by 0.3%. Stainless steel, meanwhile, lost 1.65%.
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Coal India unit Central Mine Planning seeks $1.33 billion valuation, IPO opens Friday
A newspaper advertisement states that Coal India subsidiary Central Mine Planning & Design Institute has set a price range of 163-172 rupees per share for its 18.38 billion rupee ($198.68 millions) initial public offering. The company that provides support and consultancy services for coal and minerals exploration is looking to be valued at $1.33 billion, i.e. the top of the price range. The IPO will be available for subscription between?March 20 and March 24. Global markets are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions resulting from a conflict in the Middle East. India's primary markets have also been affected by the weak sentiment, as seven out of 11 IPOs that were launched in 2026 listed below their original issue price. Bharat Coking Coal is another subsidiary of Coal India. Its debut in January saw a nearly two-fold increase, thanks to the support?of its parent and the robust demand for coking coal from steelmakers. Central Mine Planning’s IPO is a pure offer to?sell, with Coal India aiming to?offload as many shares as possible. The company reported a?profit?of 4,25 billion rupees?for the nine-month period ending?December 2025. This is up approximately 9% from the year-ago time period.
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Japan's Nikkei index falls for a third consecutive day, as the Iran crisis fuels stagflation fears
Japan's Nikkei average fell for the?third day in a row on Monday, as the Middle East Crisis threatened to cause longer-term economic damage through higher energy prices and a weaker yen. As of midday, the benchmark index?Nikkei225? fell by 1.3% to 53138.42. The Topix index, which is a broader measure of the market, fell 0.7% to 3,602.71. The Nikkei index has fallen more than 9% in the past two weeks since U.S. airstrikes on Iran began. As the conflict spread to neighbouring countries, it paralyzed the shipment of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei briefly rose after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he was urging other countries in order to safeguard shipping routes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has no plans to send?naval ships to escort vessels in the Middle East. Satsuki Katayama, the Finance Minister, said that the government was prepared to act decisively on the financial markets as the yen fell close to the psychologically significant 160 per dollar line. Maki Sawada is an equity strategist at Nomura Securities. She said that the market appears to be increasingly worried about stagflation. This occurs when economies are gripped with simultaneous increases in inflation and declines in economic growth. Sawada stated that "concerns over an economic slowdown caused by a rise in oil prices" are now being taken into account. "Rather than a general selloff, we are seeing a tendency where these domestic demand segments are performing strongly and underpinning Japan's?stock market." The Nikkei had 43 advancing stocks versus 182 declining ones. Furukawa Electric, Fujikura and other key suppliers in the artificial intelligence industry were the biggest losers. Both fell 6.7%. The index's biggest gainers were NH Foods (up 2.3%) and Denka (a chemical and advanced material company), which gained 2.2%. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Tokyo)
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Reactions to Trump’s call for assistance to secure the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. president Donald Trump asked allies to help'secure the Strait of Hormuz' as Iranian forces 'continued attacks on this vital waterway during the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran in its third week. Trump claimed that his administration has already reached out to seven countries but refused to name them. In an earlier post on social media, Trump said he hoped China would join the effort, as well as France, Japan and South Korea. Iran effectively closed the Strait between Iran and Oman. This narrow passage of water has cut off a fifth global oil supply, the largest disruption in history. Some countries responded to Washington's request to send ships to the region: On Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has no plans to send naval vessels to escort ship in the Middle East. "We have made no decisions about dispatching escort vessels." Takaichi, a member of parliament, said that we are "continuing to look at what Japan can do on its own and what is possible within the legal framework". AUSTRALIA A government minister announced on Monday that Australia would not send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We will not be sending a vessel to the 'Strait of Hormuz. Catherine King, who is a cabinet member for Anthony Albanese, said in an interview with ABC that she was aware of how important this issue is. However, the government has not asked her to do so or requested that she contribute. SOUTH KOREAN The South Korean presidential office announced on Sunday that it would "communicate closely with the U.S. about this matter" and then make a "decision following a careful review." BRITAIN A Downing Street spokesperson said that Prime Minister Keir starmer and Trump discussed the necessity to reopen Strait in order to stop disruptions to global shipping. Starmer spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the two agreed to continue discussions on the Middle East conflict during a Monday meeting, said the spokeswoman. (Compiled by Himani Sarkr; edited by Michael Perry).
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China's aluminium production in January and February is up due to higher profitability
Official data released on Monday showed that China's primary aluminum output in the first two?months of 2026 increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. This was due to higher profits. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China was the world's largest producer of aluminum. In January and February alone, it produced 7.53 million metric tonnes of primary aluminium. Profit margins for light metal, which is widely used in construction, packaging and auto manufacturing, have improved, resulting in an increase in output. According to Chinese research firm Antaike, aluminium smelters made an average profit per ton of 7,879 Yuan ($1,142.26), up?2.2% from month to month, as input costs fell while the price for the light metal increased. The most active aluminium contract increased by nearly 11% in January. However, it fell back almost 7% in February. Antaike reported that the input costs fell 0.7% on a monthly basis and 6.4% annually as electricity prices and alumina raw materials dropped. The production of ten non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel, grew by a?3.9% year-on-year to 13.42 millions tons. Other non-ferrous materials include tin, mercury, magnesium, antimony and titanium. China combines the output data from January and February to reduce the impact of Lunar New Year holidays that fall in either month. $1 = 6.8977 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)