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US and Iran continue to use hostile rhetoric in advance of new sanctions
The United States, Iran and China exchanged defiant e-mails ahead of the scheduled announcement on Monday of new U.S. sanctions that may?impact Iran and its most important trading partners such as China. The war was approaching six months and the two sides were not only not exchanging shots but they also weren't pursuing any peace talks. Oil shipments have been virtually stopped through the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran holds on to its leverage, threatening to hit any unauthorised oil tankers who attempt to cross the narrow waterway. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, will hold a news conference on Monday at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT), promising to unveil "the most severe sanctions in history" against Iran and urging China's cooperation with Washington. According to data from Kpler, China bought more than 80% (of the oil shipped by Iran) in 2025. ?Beijing urged diplomacy. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that the impending announcement by the United States of new economic sanctions against Iran is an "assertion extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member state of the United Nations." In a blog post on X, he stated that "Such secondary sanctioned have no basis in international law." Donald Trump, the U.S. president who warned against economic sanctions for any country providing "any kind of lifeline" to Iran, said on Friday Washington was watching "what happens". Trump said that Iran would like to do a deal but was not prepared to make it. HORMUZ?TRAFFIC HALTED While U.S. effectively blockedaded Iranian vessels, the Strait of Hormuz remains bottled up. Thousands of seafarers are stranded aboard hundreds of?vessels. Ship-tracking data revealed that only four commodity ships were sailing along the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. None of these vessels were large crude carriers, or liquefied gas tankers. Iran, however, has allowed a number Iraqi oil tankers the opportunity to pass through this Strait after repeated requests by Baghdad. This was reported Saturday by Iran's official news agency IRNA. IRNA reported that Baghdad had made a number of requests to Baghdad during the visit by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States said that the U.S. Military helped move an average of 8,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait in a week. This is down from over 20 million barrels per day prior to the war, or approximately?one out of every five oil barrels consumed globally. The U.S. has severely damaged Iran's economy, its navy and its air force. But Tehran still maintains enough drone and missile capability to attack regional rivals and impede oil tanker travel. Trump has not yet achieved the objectives he set for himself at the beginning of the war, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program – the status of which is uncertain, given that U.N. Inspectors are no longer allowed to enter the country since 2025 – and creating conditions so Iranians can overthrow the clerical leaders. On the first day of war, thousands have died. 168 Iranian children were among them. More than 750 US military personnel have been reported as wounded, and 18 people killed. The Iranian Economy is Damaged On Friday, the chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, Major General Ali Abdollahi promised that Iran will respond militarily to threats from enemies with "crushing and punishing responses" as well as "devastating ones." Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Armenia, called for a diplomatic resolution. Pezeshkian, speaking to ISNA, said that it would be better to end this war now, when America is powerful and has dignity. The world will acknowledge our victory, and recognize the fact that America, in violation of all laws, attacked our schools, hospitals and infrastructure, and is hated around the world. In comments made late Thursday to Iranian and Iraqi entrepreneurs, Iran's parliament Speaker,?Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf acknowledged the strains on Iran's economic system. Qalibaf told the official news agency IRNA that "no matter how much power we have in terms of military, we will not survive without food for our people, financial turnover, economic development and national production." (Reporting and writing by Kanishka Singa and Ismail Shakil, Editing by Cynthia Osterman).
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RPT-US and Iran continue hostile rhetoric in advance of new sanctions
The United States, Iran and China exchanged defiant e-mails ahead of the scheduled announcement on Monday of new U.S. sanctions that may?impact Iran and its most important trading partners such as China. The war was approaching six months and the two sides weren't exchanging fire, but they also didn't pursue peace talks. Oil shipments have been virtually stopped through the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran holds on to its leverage, threatening to hit any unauthorised oil tankers who attempt to cross the narrow waterway. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, will hold a news conference on Monday at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT), promising to unveil "the most severe sanctions in history" against Iran and urging China's cooperation with Washington. According to data from 2025, the analytics firm Kpler estimates that China purchases more than 80% (or all) of Iran's oil. Beijing urged diplomacy. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that the United States was about to announce new economic sanctions against Iran and that this would be an "assertion extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member of the United Nations". In a blog post on X, he stated that "Such secondary sanctioned have no basis in international law." U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington is watching "what happens" during the conflict. He has previously warned that any country providing "any type of support to Iran" will face economic consequences. Trump said that Iran would like to do a deal but is not yet ready to make it. HORMUZ TRAFFIC HALTED The U.S. effectively blockedaded?Iranian ships in their ports while the Strait?Hormuz remained bottled-up with thousands of seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels. Ship-tracking data revealed that only four commodity ships were sailing along the strait Thursday. None of these vessels were large crude carriers or LNG tankers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States said that the U.S. Military helped move an average of 8,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait in a period of seven days. This is down from over 20 million barrels per day prior to the war, or one out of every five oil barrels consumed globally. U.S. strikes have destroyed Iran's navy and air force and severely damaged its economy, but Tehran still has enough drones and missiles to attack regional rivals and impede oil tanker travel. Trump has not yet achieved the objectives he set out at the beginning of the war, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, the status of which is still uncertain, given that the U.N. inspectors have been shut out since 2025. Since 2025, inspectors are not allowed to enter Iran. On the first day of the war, 168 Iranian schoolchildren were killed. More than 750 U.S. military personnel have been wounded, and 18 have died. The Iranian Economy is Damaged On Friday, the chief of staff for Iran's Armed Forces, Major General Ali Abdollahi promised that Iran would respond militarily to threats from its enemies with "crushing and punishing responses." Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Armenia, called for a diplomatic resolution. Pezeshkian, speaking to the ISNA news agency, said: "It is better to end the war now, when we have the power and dignity and when the whole world recognizes our victory. America has attacked our schools and hospitals and infrastructure, and is hated around the world." Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is the main negotiator for Iran in the mediated talks between the U.S. and the Iranian parliament. He acknowledged the strains on Iran's economic system to Iranians and Iraqis late Thursday. Qalibaf told the official news agency IRNA that "no matter how much power we have in terms of military, we will not survive without food for our people, financial turnover, economic development and national production." (Reporting and writing by Kanishka Singa and Ismail Shakil, Editing by Cynthia Osterman).
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RPT-US and Iran continue hostile rhetoric in advance of new sanctions
The United States, Iran and China exchanged a series of defiant messages in advance of the announcement on Monday of new U.S. sanctions which could have a significant impact on Iran and its most important trading partners. The war was approaching six months and the two sides weren't exchanging fire, but they also didn't pursue peace talks. Oil shipments have been virtually stopped through the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran holds on to its leverage, threatening to hit any unauthorised oil tankers who attempt to cross the narrow waterway. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, will hold a news conference on Monday at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT), promising to unveil "the most severe sanctions in history" against Iran and urging China's cooperation with Washington. According to data from 2025, the analytics firm Kpler estimates that China purchases more than 80% (or more) of Iran's oil. Beijing urged diplomacy. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that the United States was about to announce new economic sanctions against Iran and that this would be an "assertion extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member of the United Nations". In a blog post on X, he stated that "Such secondary sanctioned have no basis in international law." U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington is watching "what happens" during the conflict. He has previously warned that any country providing "any type of survival line to Iran" will face economic consequences. Trump said that Iran would like to do a deal but is not yet ready to do the right one. HORMUZ TRAFFIC HALTED Although the U.S. effectively blockedaded?Iranian ships in their ports the Strait of 'Hormuz remained bottled-up with thousands of seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels. Ship-tracking data revealed that only four commodity ships were sailing along the strait Thursday. None of these vessels were large crude carriers or LNG tankers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States said that the U.S. Military helped move an average of 8,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait in a period of seven days. This is down from over 20 million barrels per day prior to the war, or one out of every five oil barrels consumed globally. U.S. strikes have destroyed Iran's navy and air force and severely damaged its economy, but Tehran still has enough drones and missiles to attack regional rivals and impede oil tanker travel. Trump has not yet achieved the objectives he set out at the beginning of the war, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, the status of which is still uncertain, given that the U.N. inspectors have been shut out since 2025. Since 2025, inspectors are not allowed to enter Iran. On the first day of the war, 168 Iranian schoolchildren were killed. More than 750 U.S. military personnel have been wounded, and 18 have died. The Iranian Economy is Damaged On Friday, the chief of staff for Iran's Armed Forces, Major General Ali Abdollahi promised that Iran would respond militarily to threats from its enemies with "crushing and punishing responses." Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Armenia, called for a diplomatic resolution. Pezeshkian, speaking to the ISNA news agency, said: "It is better to end the war now, when we have the power and dignity and the whole of the world recognizes our victory." Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is the main negotiator for Iran in the mediated talks between the U.S. and the Iranian parliament. He acknowledged the strains on Iran's economic system to Iranians and Iraqis late Thursday. Qalibaf told the official news agency IRNA that "no matter how much power we have in terms of military, we will not survive without food for our people, financial turnover, economic development and national production." (Reporting and writing by Kanishka Singa and Ismail Shakil, Editing by Cynthia Osterman).
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US and Iran continue to use hostile rhetoric in advance of new sanctions
Iran and the United States exchanged defiant messages before Monday's announcement of new U.S. sanctions that could affect Iran and its most important trading partners, including China. The war was approaching its'six-month mark when the sides stopped exchanging fire and also halted peace talks. Oil shipments have been virtually stopped through the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran holds on to its leverage, threatening to hit any unauthorised oil tankers who attempt to cross the narrow waterway. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, will hold a news conference on Monday at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT), promising to unveil "the most severe sanctions in history" against Iran. He also wants China to work with Washington. According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, China will buy more than 80% (or roughly $600 billion) of Iran's oil by 2025. Beijing urged diplomacy. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that the impending announcement by the United States of new economic sanctions against Iran is an "assertion?extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member of the United Nations". In a blog post on X, he stated that "Such secondary sanctioned have no basis in international law." Donald Trump, the U.S. president who has warned of economic consequences for any country providing "any type" of "lifeline to Iran," stated on Friday that Washington is observing "whatever happens" in this conflict. Trump said that Iran would like to do a deal but is not ready to do the right one. HORMUZ TRAFFIC HALTED Despite the fact that the U.S. effectively blockedaded Iranian vessels from entering their ports, a bottleneck remained in place at the Strait of Hormuz with thousands of seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels. Ship-tracking data revealed that only four commodity ships were sailing along the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. None were large crude carriers, or liquefied gas tankers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States said that the U.S. Military helped move an average of 8,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait in a period of seven days. This is down from over 20 million barrels per day prior to the war, or one out of every five oil barrels consumed globally. U.S. strikes have destroyed Iran's navy and air force and severely damaged its economy, but Tehran still has enough missiles and drones to attack regional rivals and impede oil tanker travel. Trump has not yet achieved the objectives he set out at the beginning of the war, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program - which is still uncertain, given that U.N. Inspectors have been'shut out' since 2025 – and creating conditions for Iranians overthrow their clerical leaders. On the first day of the war, 168 Iranian children were killed. More than 750 U.S. military personnel have been wounded, and 18 people have died. The Iranian Economy is Damaged On Friday, the chief of staff for Iran's Armed Forces, Major General Ali Abdollahi promised that Iran would respond to any military threats from its enemies with "crushing and punishing responses." Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Armenia, called for a diplomatic resolution. Pezeshkian told the ISNA news agency that it would be better if the war ended today when the United States was able to demonstrate its power and dignity. The world will also acknowledge our victory, as well as the fact that America has violated all laws and regulations by attacking our schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is the main negotiator for Iran in the?mediated negotiations with the U.S. He acknowledged the strains on Iran's economic system in remarks to Iranian and Iraqi businesses late on Thursday. Qalibaf told the official news agency IRNA that "no matter how much power we have in terms of military, we will not survive without food for our people, financial turnover, economic development and national production." (Reporting and writing by Kanishka Singa and Ismail Shakil, Editing by Cynthia Osterman).
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US cuts deep Colorado River water to California, Nevada and Arizona
U.S. government finalized on Friday a plan for reducing?water supply to California, Nevada, and Arizona in order to manage the drought-stricken Colorado River, but left open the possibility that the cuts could be even deeper later in the decade. According to the plan, the three states in the lower basin will receive a reduction of 21% in water in 2027-2028. However, the cuts could double in future years. Arizona and Nevada said that any plan to double cuts after 2028 will destroy their economies. Arizona has threatened the federal government with a lawsuit if they impose these potential cuts in the new 10-year plan. Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, the states in the upper basin, are not subject to mandatory cuts. Colorado River water is used by one in ten Americans. It irrigates the land that produces 15% of U.S. agricultural output. And it generates power for six million people across seven states. In 1922 the river's governing agreement allocated water roughly equally to both basins. However, California, Arizona, and Nevada historically used more water. This was a major point of contention. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs praised the federal government's decision to adopt the Lower Basin proposal for water reductions in 2027-2028. She said that the 10-year plan of the federal government did not provide water to Lower Basin states as they were entitled. She called Upper Basin's refusal of negotiating reductions in their water use "reckless." Hobbs stated in a press release that Arizona is prepared to defend our water with any legal means possible and will not back down when defending our rights. Upper Basin States refused to accept any cuts in water supply during three years of failed negotiation between the seven states. They argued that the severe drought affecting the U.S. West was causing them to run out of water. This month, Lake Powell and Lake Mead - the two nation's largest reservoirs - reached record lows. On Thursday, the water level in Lake Powell was 3,519.2 ft above sea level -- just 30 ft above the minimum required to run the Glen Canyon Dam hydroelectric plant in Arizona. According to a proposal from the Lower Basin States made on May 1, their water allocation will be reduced by combined 1.6 millions acre-feet each year in 2027 and 2028. The three states have agreed to conserve water by a combined amount of 3.2 MAF in two years. This is based on a mandatory cut of 1.25 MAF each year and reducing the consumption of water by 700,000 MAF in two years. If necessary to maintain critical levels of reservoirs, the annual mandatory cuts for the three states can almost double up to 3.0 MAF each year. A lawsuit over these potential cuts could lead to more uncertainty. California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that all seven states who depend on the Colorado River must conserve water. Newsom stated in a press release that the plan only provides "short-term stability". "Any long-term solutions must be shared fairly among all seven states to recognize the new reality of the Colorado River." Sarah Porter, a hydrologist, still believes that Arizona will sue the federal Government over its plan for 2029-2036. She said that the state was not happy with the Bureau of Reclamation assessing its authority to?cut water deliveries from Lake Mead?to Lower Basin states and not impose compulsory cuts on upper basin?states. Porter, director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University, said that the Bureau of Reclamation has made it "clear" that, if reservoir levels fall to certain points in the future, they may take further cuts, limit Lake Powell releases, or other actions far beyond the Lower Basin's agreement. Reporting by Nichola Hay and Andrew Hay from Los Angeles; Additional reporting by Jasper Ward from New York; Editing done by David Gregorio
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US finalizes deep Colorado River Water Cuts to California, Nevada, and Arizona
The U.S. Government finalized on Friday a plan that will cut water supplies in?California and Nevada to help manage the Colorado River, which is suffering from a severe drought. According to the plan, signed by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, in 2027 and 2028, water will be reduced by around 21 percent in these three states. However, this reduction could double in subsequent years. Arizona and Nevada said that any plan to double cuts after 2028 will destroy their economies. Arizona has threatened the federal government with a lawsuit if they impose?these possible cuts as part the new 10-year-plan. Colorado, Utah New Mexico, and Wyoming are not required to make any cuts as part of the plan. The Colorado River provides water for one in 10 Americans, irrigates lands producing 15% of U.S. agricultural output and generates electricity for six million people in seven States. Upper basin states refused to 'take cuts' in three years of failed negotiations. They claimed that they would be forced into a 'cut off water supply because of the severe drought affecting the U.S. West. According to a proposal from the states of the lower basin made on May 1, their water allocations will be reduced in 2027 and 2028 by a total of 1.6 million acres feet. The three states have agreed to conserve 700 000 MAF in two years, resulting in a combined saving of 3.2 MAF. If necessary, mandatory annual cuts to the three states could be almost doubled to 3.0 MAF annually to maintain critical reservoir levels after the first two years of operation. If there are any lawsuits filed over these potential cuts, it could lead to more uncertainty. JB Hamby said in a statement that "this is not a solution, but a bridge." "California Arizona and Nevada have shown that states are able to compromise, make difficult decisions and reduce water usage when the river requires it. Three states can't take on the responsibility for all seven." Reporting by Nichola Hay in New Mexico and Andrew Hay in Los Angeles; editing by David Gregorio
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US and Canadian trade teams met again as the deadline for tariffs looms
On Friday, top trade negotiators of Canada and the U.S. met for a third consecutive day in Washington to try to reach a deal before new American tariffs that are expected to take effect on Saturday. The deal could be a sign of detente after 18 months of tensions that began when Donald Trump imposed tariffs against key Canadian imports, prompting Ottawa's retaliation with a series of countermeasures. Trump has said he would impose a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods on Saturday at 12:01 am EDT (0401 GMT), if there is no agreement. Dominic LeBlanc - Canada's Minister of Trade with the U.S. - did not address reporters when he arrived for the meeting. LeBlanc and Greer met for over three hours on Thursday. They said that the two sides are "very close" in reaching a deal. Mark Carney may find it difficult to convince Canadians and the powerful premiers of the ten provinces to accept a deal. Leger's opinion poll on Wednesday showed that 56% Canadians wanted Carney to not make any further concessions. Sources claim that an agreement will reduce the top line tariff on Canadian built vehicles from 25% to 15% and cut tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel to 25%. Ontario, which is a major producer of steel and aluminum, wants to scrap the tariffs. Carney has called on the major provinces to lift their bans on selling U.S. alcoholic beverages, which are a major irritation for Washington. Wab Kinew said that Trump is "very weak", and Canada should take advantage. "I believe we have the upper hand. They're on their heels right now. He told reporters that they were coming to us for a bargain. Canada is only a tenth of the size of the U.S. and exports 70% of its goods south of the border. This makes it "uniquely susceptible" to U.S. punitive trade measures. JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, mocked Carney on Wednesday, saying that he "comes into and puffs out his chest?and tells me, 'I am going to out-tough Donald Trump.'" In a recording obtained by The Canadian Press, Vance is heard saying: "It's funny because Carney presents it as some sort of victory for Canada, when they fundamentally, like... climb down on many issues." Vance spoke at a fundraising event in Southampton, New York. (Written by David Ljunggren, edited by Katharine J. Jackson, Philippa A. Fletcher and Sanjeev M. Miglani).
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Global stock markets close out a difficult week as oil and bond yields remain high
The global stock market was headed for a largely lower week last Friday as the strain on the global bond markets did not show any signs of easing and the diplomatic deadlock over the Gulf pushed oil prices up to a one-month high. The yields on U.S. government bonds resumed their rise after the surprise intervention by the Treasury on Wednesday. This was barely a relief from selling that had been sparked primarily by fears of inflation and fiscal pressures. The increase came as?U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the government could increase its repurchases and also floated the idea for fiscal consolidation. Analysts doubted he would be able to find the necessary spending cuts in order to reduce a budget gap of over 6% of GDP. Interest charges alone for this year totaled $1.2 trillion while U.S. government debt just passed $40 trillion. The dollar is now heading towards the three-month lows it hit on Thursday. It has fallen almost 1% against major currencies this week. "The initial Treasury buyback was remarkable, because it came as a total surprise. But the question is: 'Is this meaningful enough to make a lasting?impact'?" Christian Hantel is a portfolio manager for Vontobel. We could still see the market trying to test whether they are ready to increase the $4 billion that they announced previously. It could be an exciting couple of days. The 30-year bond yield in the U.S. increased by 3 basis points to 5.266%, while the 10-year bond yield was up 3.2 basis points at 4.73%. The 30-year bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 5.266%, while the yield on the 10-year bond rose by 3.2 basis point to 4.73%. Selling on Friday was heaviest in the 2-year Treasury, which was up 5 basis points for the ?day and 9 bps for the week at 4.236% following a stronger-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers' report. The markets assume that 5.3% in 30-year bond yields will be a painful threshold for Treasury. This is similar to what 160 yen has been for Japanese policymakers. Cost of Borrowing The global debt costs are rising as tech giants borrow heavily to fund AI capital expenditures, causing the discount on corporate profits to rise and stock valuations to be challenged. The Nikkei was also feeling the strain, as it?slipped by 0.3%. This brought the losses for the entire week to nearly 4%. It is the?biggest drop weekly since mid-July. Stock markets in Europe have made some early gains. STOXX 600 was still on track for its largest weekly drop since early July. It fell nearly 1%. MSCI's global stock index fell slightly. Wall Street has seen some relief from the recent earnings slump. Major indexes were up by nearly 1% as of midday on Friday. However, they still fell by about 2% for the entire week. Next week, when Nvidia releases its quarterly report, the AI industry will be put to the test. Much depends on Nvidia's outlook for data center revenue and infrastructure demand. Walmart's Thursday slide of 9% was a clear example of what happens when expectations are not met. WAR AND DEBASEMENT Bessent made headlines by extending President Donald Trump's promise of economic war against Iran. He said that the U.S. will impose "the strongest sanctions in history" to the country. The threats dimmed further hopes for a deal to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude reached a peak of $95 per barrel in a month, before profit taking set in. Brent futures rose around 0.5% to $94 per barrel. This is up over 5% for the week. U.S. crude climbed 0.4% to $84. The dollar has been losing ground in currency markets this week, as investors are concerned that the ever-growing U.S. government debt and policy uncertainty will cause the currency to lose its purchasing power, driving them towards scarce assets such as gold. Yellow metal rose 1.45% to $4,583 per ounce, its highest price in nearly three months. Dollar index fell almost 0.9% on the week to 98.74, after hitting a three-month low overnight. The euro was up by 1.0% for the week, at $1.1686, having touched a 14-week high. The last time it traded was around $1.1689. This is off the session highs. The dollar's biggest weekly drop since January was 1.7% against the Swiss franc. It is now 0.7995 Francs. Some investors have also been influenced by concerns over the rising U.S. national debt to look at alternatives, such as bitcoin. Bitcoin has typically benefitted from diversification away from U.S.-based assets. Bitcoin reached a two-month high on Friday, and last was up almost 6% to $76,446, which is a good start for a 20% rise in a week. This would be its biggest gain in over 2-1/2 years. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist of Capital Economics. He said that "the dollar has come under renewed pressure due in part to a resurgent narrative about 'debasement.' While we still think that such concerns are overblown and that an overall stronger dollar is likely to be the result of the economic backdrop in the months to come, the continued surprise from U.S. Policymakers could well matter more over the short term. The dollar dropped around 0.2% to 158.79 Japanese yen.
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)