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Reliance Infra, an Indian company, will recover $3.25 billion from New Delhi's consumers in unpaid electricity dues
Reliance Infrastructure, an Indian company, said that its New Delhi electricity distribution units would recover 284.83 billion rupees (3.25 billion dollars) in unpaid debts following a Supreme Court ruling this week. Dues are due because of historical tariff shortfalls where the electricity prices approved by regulators didn't fully cover costs. The amount will be recovered by consumers in four years, starting April 2024. This is likely to happen through increased electricity rates. The Supreme Court of India ordered on Wednesday that all electricity regulators in India clear any deferred payments and unpaid bills owed by power distribution companies. The court also ordered state regulators conduct audits and to submit recovery plans. Reliance Infra belongs to the Anil Ambani Reliance Group. He is the younger sibling of Mukesh Ambani, a billionaire. According to a court document, in New Delhi, three distribution companies, including a Tata Power unit, had accrued 272 billion rupees of unpaid dues by the end of fiscal year 2021. These had to be settled within four years, starting April 2024. The Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) will supervise the recovery process. This is expected to lead to higher electricity bills in the capital. Reporting by Sethuraman NR, New Delhi. Editing by Sonia Cheema.
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Chinese villages hit by the worst floods for generations claim they did not have warning
Over the years, Pingtou's residents, who live in a sub-tropical village of China, have experienced many typhoons, rainstorms, and other natural disasters. Nothing prepared them for the flooding that hit Pingtou this week, which was the worst in decades. On Friday, Guangdong residents were still dragging furniture and appliances from their homes that had been damaged by the recent downpour. At least four of these items collapsed. One villager in his fifties, who requested to be identified only by his surname Zhong, said that the older people here have never seen such flooding in their 100 years of living here. The floodwaters had never entered his house before, but they did so this time, destroying many of his possessions. The water marks on nearby walls were over a metre high. It wasn't immediately clear whether anyone had died in the village. Guangzhou's capital, Guangzhou province, experienced a record rainfall of 622.6mm (24.5 inches), almost three times the average monthly rainfall in August. State media reported that at least seven people died due to flooding in the city. China has experienced record rainfalls in the north and south, as well as heatwaves that lasted for a long time in its interior. The government announced 430 million Yuan ($59.9million) of new funding on Thursday for disaster relief. This brings the total amount allocated since April up to at least 5,8 billion Yuan. In Pingtou however, the villagers complained that they did not receive enough help from the local authorities in order to cope with the aftermath. Zhong claimed that he was informed by officials that no aid was available to help with the flooding. He said, "Not even a single bottle of mineral-water was provided." 'NO ALERTS' Residents of Pingtou said there were no flood alerts in their area, leaving them unprepared. The night of Tuesday's heaviest rain in Pingtou 73-year old Zhang was woken by her daughter-in law in the middle night. She rushed to the relative safety and security of her son’s two-storey house. The roof of Zhang’s house was a total collapse when the family awoke the following morning. Zhang said, "I have lived in this house for over 50 years." She stared at the household items covered in debris left behind by receding water. Hu Songlin, a fish and duck farmer just outside Pingtou said that the flood had washed away all the fish from his ponds. He estimated the immediate loss at around 120,000 yuan. Hua, his wife, said: "Now we will not be able earn a cent." Climate change is believed to be the cause of China's unpredictable weather, including droughts and floods. "We say global warming can cause heavier rain, but there is only so much available water," said Johnny Chan a professor from the City University of Hong Kong School of Energy and Environment. If one area gets more rain, then another will get less. What we are seeing is that some places will get a lot drier and others will become a lot wetter. $1 = 7.1827 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Helen Popper; Additional reporting in Hong Kong by Florence Lo, Joyce Zhou and Ryan Woo)
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Xi orders a 'all out' rescue after floods in northwest China kill 10.
The President Xi Jinping ordered a "full-scale" rescue effort in China's arid, mountainous Northwest on Friday after flash floods triggered by unusually heavy rains killed 10 people and left another 33 people missing. China Central Television reported that torrential downpours started around 6 pm on Thursday, unleashing flash floods and stranding 4,000 people in Yuzhong province. Since early Thursday evening, rainfall in one mountainous region has reached 195mm (7.7 inch). Yuzhong County normally receives 300-400mm in rainfall throughout the year. Yuzhong lies among wind-blown silt hills and gullies on one of the largest loess plates. This makes it susceptible to landslides and flash floods due to the loose structure of soil. In a CCTV video, mud water up to ankle-high was seen rushing down a hilly route flanked by trees that had been uprooted. CCTV reported Xi saying that the top priority is to find and rescue missing persons, to relocate and resettle those under threat, to minimise casualties and to restore communications and transport as quickly as possible. CCTV reported that he warned local governments to avoid "complacency" and "carelessness" due to recent extreme weather events. Meteorologists have described extreme weather events that are linked to climate changes as causing record rainfall in China's north-south region. Heavy rains have caused flooding and heavy rainfall. killed At least 60 people have been killed in northern China, including Beijing, since late July. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on Friday that it had allocated 100 million Yuan ($13.92 millions) to help rescue efforts in Gansu after the disaster. China has pledged at least 6 billion Yuan in funding to disaster relief since April.
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Poland will continue to pursue former Orlen executive after UAE rejects extradition
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, said that Poland would continue to try and have a former oil industry executive, who was a senior executive, returned from the United Arab Emirates after it rejected Warsaw’s first request for extradition. According to Polish privacy laws the former chief executive officer of Orlen's Swiss unit, known only as Samer, was charged with entering into contracts which resulted in losses of $378 million for the company. It's hard to convince people in countries such as UAE, and you have to be patient. Tusk said to reporters during a press briefing that "we will not stop here". "This man has been entrusted enormous funds that are now gone. I have no doubt whatsoever that Poland is correct in pursuing him." In January, the executive was arrested in the United Arab Emirates. Warsaw then filed a motion for his extradition to face charges that he acted to the detriment to the company. Przemyslaw Nextak, spokesperson for the Polish Prosecutor's Office, told the newswire PAP on Friday that Warsaw had been informed by UAE officials that the motion was rejected because it "didn't meet the requirements". (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Reporting by Marek Stzelecki)
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The rupee has suffered its worst six-month losing streak on US tariffs. RBI limits the damage.
The Indian rupee has dropped for the fifth consecutive week. This is its largest weekly decline in six months. Trade tensions between India, and the United States have escalated after President Donald Trump called for new tariffs to be placed on Indian products. The rupee was slightly higher on Friday, closing at 87.6550 versus the U.S. Dollar. It closed at 87.7025 last Thursday. The dollar opened at 87.5600, and reached a high intraday of 87.5350 due to the unwinding long dollar positions on the NDF. After initial lows the USD/INR rose after dollar bids from oil importers pushed it higher, traders reported. The rupee depreciated by nearly 3% in the last five weeks, after a drop of 1.2% the previous week. India was one of the countries that were hardest hit by Trump's trade war, which included a new tariff of 25% on Indian goods. This move puts India in the same category as Brazil for the highest import duties. Markets are concerned about the impact of the new tariffs on investor sentiment and capital flows towards Indian assets. The Reserve Bank of India intervened almost daily to prevent a further slide due to fears of a currency record low, traders reported. Four bankers said that the RBI has resumed its intervention on the NDF market in order to control rupee volatility. Market participants are expecting another drop in foreign currency reserves. The week ended August 1 saw a decline in foreign exchange reserve of over $9 billion, indicating an intervention on the spot market. Some people are still hopeful that there will be a solution in the near future. Nishit Masters, portfolio manager at Axis Securities PMS, believes that, based on recent history, it is highly likely that the U.S. will lower tariffs within the next few weeks or months. This could result in a relief rally for Indian markets.
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US gold futures record high on news of US tariffs on imported bars
U.S. Gold Futures soared to a new record on Friday, after reports that Washington had imposed tariffs for imports of one kilogram bullion bars. This increased the spread between New York spot and futures prices. Gold futures for December in the United States jumped by 1%, to $3,489.40 after reaching a record high of $3,534.10. As of 0935 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $3399.22 an ounce. Bullion has been on course for a second consecutive weekly gain. It is up about 1% this week. The spread between the futures and spot prices grew to over $100 after Financial Times reported the United States had placed tariffs on imports for 1 kg bars of gold, citing an official letter from Customs and Border Protection dated July 31. The letter stated that 1 kg and 100 ounce gold bars would be classified under a special customs code, which could result in higher duties. This move, according to the newspaper, could have a heavy impact on Switzerland, as it is the largest refinery hub in the world. In 2020, disruptions in the transatlantic bullion chain caused a similar dislocation. The tariff will disrupt gold trade, and Switzerland will be the worst affected. Zain Vawda is an analyst at MarketPulse, and he said that premiums on gold could increase. This would lead to higher prices. The move could also lead to supply bottlenecks, which could drive up the price of gold spot. The U.S. President Donald Trump increased tariffs on imports of dozens countries on Thursday. This left major trading partners like Switzerland, Brazil, and India scrambling to find a better deal. "I believe you will see increased safe-haven demands and heightened uncertainties on US gold supplies." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that he expects gold prices to stay high until the Trump administration provides more information on the 39% tariffs related to gold kilo bar. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the next month, which will support gold, a safe-haven investment. FedWatch Tool from CME Group, prompted by weaker U.S. payroll figures last week, priced in a 89% chance that September's 25-basis point cut will occur. Other than that, silver spot rose by 0.1%, to $38.34 an ounce. Platinum fell by 0.7%, at $1.324.89, and palladium dropped 1%, at $1.139.40. (Reporting from Sherin Elizabeth Varighese, Bengaluru. Editing by Kate Mayberry.)
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MP Materials gains after smaller loss. Pentagon and Apple deals boost outlook
MP Materials shares jumped more than 10% in premarket trading on Friday, after the U.S. rare earths miner posted higher output, a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and forecast further production gains. The Las Vegas company, which operates the sole U.S. rare-earths mine, has seen its stock quadruple in value this year due to Washington's efforts to reduce dependence on China and secure domestic supplies. The production of rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, and other elements (NdPr) jumped by nearly 120% to 597 metric tonnes in the second quarter. Michael Rosenthal, the Chief Operating Officer and Founder of NdPr, said that he expects NdPr production to increase 10% to 20% in the current quarter. Analysts at TD Cowen stated that strong upstream volumes, and magnetics output, drove a 40% EBITDA beating. Commercial magnet production is on track to be completed by year's end. The company is now expected to reach a run rate of 60,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide a year earlier than originally planned. The results are coming weeks after MP signed an multi-billion dollar deal with the U.S. Department of Defense, which guarantees a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr. This is nearly twice the Chinese market level and could make Pentagon its largest shareholder. Apple's prepayments for the expansion of MP's Independence Mine in Texas will cover a large part of the $500 million contract. DA Davidson, a brokerage, said that Stage III Magnetics is already EBITDA positive and with government and Apple funding the company has a strong capital base to accelerate its growth. Analysts estimated a loss of 19 cents. (Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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Thungela South Africa flags profit drop on weak thermal coal Prices
The coal miner Thungela Resources in South Africa expects to see its half-year profits fall by up to 85% due to the lower prices of thermal coal as global economic uncertainty affects energy demand. Thungela expects its headline earnings per share to range between 0.0789 and $0.0118 rand in the six-month period ending June 30 compared to 9.52 rand during the same time last year. Thungela, South Africa's largest thermal coal exporter, has been forced along with its peers to limit output in order to match the limited freight rail and ports provided by South Africa’s struggling state-owned logistic firm Transnet. After increases in coal production in South Africa, thermal coal demand in China and India has also decreased. The average coal price through Richards Bay (South Africa's main coal-export terminal) was 14% lower than last year during the same period, due to tariff-induced instabilities in global trade that impact major economies and energy demands. It said that the average export price to Australia, where Thungela's Ensham mine is located, was 11% less than the same period in the previous year. Thungela also said that it incurred 285 millions rand of restructuring costs in relation to its Goedehoop, and Isibonelo businesses which are reaching the end of life this year. The company will announce its half-year results August 18.
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)