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ArcelorMittal expects EU steel imports to remain high
ArcelorMittal’s chief financial officer said that steel imports into the European Union will remain high during the second quarter as buyers rush to get material into the bloc before tighter safety measures are implemented. GenuinoChristino stated that imports were still high at the beginning of the second quarter, even after they had dipped in the first. He said that despite the fact that imports were down in the first quarter, evidence indicates?that they are still high at least for the start of quarter 2. In July, the?EU will implement a new policy that will reduce steel import quotas by half. Christino stated that higher freight rates and shipping times, 'linked to disruptions from the Middle East war' were unlikely to delay arrivals. The European Steel Association (also known as 'Eurofer') warned in March of an import share of 29% of the EU steel market by?the third-quarter of 2025. According to LSEG, the Luxembourg-based firm posted a first-quarter 'core earning' of $1.68billion, which was just a little bit higher than analysts' estimates of $1.65billion. (Reporting from Gdansk by Javi Larranaga; editing by Matt Scuffham).
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CEO Repsol says that the company is not in a rush to list its upstream unit on US stock exchange.
Josu Imaz, the chief executive of Repsol, said that the company is not in a hurry to list the oil and gas production unit it has in the United States. This will temper expectations for a 'initial public offering' or reverse merger. Imaz said in late 2018 that its upstream unit is preparing for a liquidity event by 2026. This could be an IPO, or a reverse merge with a listed company?in the U.S. He said that while the unit is technically "ready to go to the American market", it would be better if the fundamentals of the upstream sector improve in the next few months. He said, "We're comfortable with the current situation. We won't jump into a liquid event in the near future." When asked if he was interested in a possible IPO or the alternative to going public - a reverse merger. Imaz spoke after Spain's largest refinery operator, Imaz, reported strong quarterly results. Imaz said that Repsol, and its partner, U.S. Private Equity Fund EIG, who has a 25% stake in the upstream unit "are fully on board with this view". In 2022 Repsol sold its stake in an agreement that valued the entire business at $19 billion including debt. The deal contemplated the?potential U.S. IPO? from 2026, depending on market conditions. The unit has assets in several countries including the United States - namely, the Pikka oil development in Alaska, which is one of?group?s key growth developments - as well as Brazil Mexico Libya and Venezuela. Imaz stated that Repsol's upstream businesses was showing a broad overall progress. He cited developments in Venezuela, "where production is growing with the support of both Venezuelan authorities and U.S. Authorities", as well as advancements in Alaska and Libya.
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Austrian parties ask for last-minute extension to the fuel price "brake"
After initial reports of failure, last-minute discussions between Austria's three ruling parties continued on Thursday. The government must set the amount of the two elements. Austrian media reported that the parties were discussing a lower level but one potential sticking point was that the smallest of three, liberal and fiscally conservative Neos, had been?seeking a guarantee that this mechanism would not be extended beyond May. Austrian media reported that parties were discussing a lowered level. However, one sticking point could be that the smallest party, the liberal fiscally conservative Neos had asked for a guarantee the mechanism wouldn't be extended past May. Some media reported initially?on Friday that the talks failed, but later said they were 'continuing but on a razor edge. Politicians may be more concerned about the political consequences of not reaching an agreement than they are with the financial costs. The cost of living has been ranked as the top concern by voters in polls. Statistik Austria's national statistics office released a?flash estimate on Thursday that put the inflation rate at 3.3% for April, up from 2.3% in January.
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Argentina will increase fuel taxes by May
According to a Thursday decree published in Argentina's official gazette, the government will increase fuel taxes by a portion starting May 1. Further increases will be delayed until June. The aim of this measure is to reduce the impact on prices and inflation caused by the increase in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. In May, gasoline will be taxed by 10.398 Pesos for a liquid fuel tax and by 0.6377 Pesos due to an environmental tax. The tax on diesel is also going up by 9.269 Pesos due to the liquid fuel taxes, with a rate a 5.019 Pesos in the "Patagonian" regions and a 1.056 Pesos tax for carbon dioxide. In March, the monthly inflation rate in Argentina rose to 3.4%. This was a result of a rise in crude oil price on a global scale. The global oil price reached a four-year peak on Thursday. It was above $126 per barrel amid fears the conflict between Iran and the United States could escalate and cause a long-term disruption of crude oil supplies throughout the Middle East. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Morland; Walter Bianchi)
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Israeli strikes kill four Palestinians, say medics, amid new ceasefire effort
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes had killed four Palestinians on Thursday in the Gaza Strip. Hamas leaders were meeting mediators in Cairo to discuss ways to'reinvigorate' a fragile six-month-old truce brokered by the U.S. Medical personnel?said that an Israeli strike near the Salahudeen Road in central Gaza Strip killed at least three persons, while another struck near a hospital near Deir Al-Balah in further south. The Israeli military has not yet commented on the reports. Israel and Hamas blame each other for violations of the truce. Local medics claim that at least 800 Palestinians were killed since the ceasefire came into effect. Israel claims that militant attacks killed 'four' of its soldiers during the same time period. Hamas told reporters on Thursday that a Hamas delegation had arrived in Cairo just two days before for talks with mediators about the Gaza plan of U.S. president Donald Trump. Sources familiar with the talks stated that?efforts made to force Israel and Hamas to implement a second stage have not been successful. Israel will 'further pull back in the second phase, according to 'the plan. A transitional authority will take control of Gaza in this phase and a multinational force is deployed. Hamas should be disarmed as part of the plan. Gaza's health authorities report that more than 72,500 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza war since it began on October 22, 2023. According to Israeli statistics, Hamas' attacks on Israel in October 2023 - the events that precipitated Gaza war – killed 1,200 Palestinians. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Nidal al Mughrabi)
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US growth accelerates in the first quarter
The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter, thanks to a resurgence in government spending following a crippling shutdown. However, the increase is only temporary because the war against Iran will likely drive up gasoline prices while squeezing household budgets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product grew?at an annualized rate of 2.0% last quarter. The economy grew at a pace of 0.5% in the quarter October-December, as federal spending contracted by 1.16 percentage points. This was the largest drop since the first quarter 1994. The economists polled had predicted GDP growth to increase at a rate of 2.3% annually. Estimates varied from a contraction of 0.2% to a growth rate of 3.9%. The growth was largely due to a partial reverse in government expenditures. The boom in artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers to support the technology continue to drive business equipment spending. But growth in consumer expenditure, which is the engine of the economy's growth, has slowed even more. Even before the U.S. - Israel war with Iran, it was already losing momentum. Americans are frustrated by the cost of living and disapprove of President Donald Trump's economic management. This is a risk to the Republican Party as it heads into the November congressional midterm elections. Financial markets expect that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates constant, perhaps until 2027, if the labor market does not deteriorate. The U.S. Central Bank left its overnight benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75 percent on Wednesday, citing 'increasing concerns about inflation. In the first quarter, employment growth averaged 68,000 new jobs per month compared to 20,000 monthly gains during the same time last year. Some economists blamed Trump's immigration and trade policies for the labor market slowdown compared to that of 2023. The weak labor market has dampened wage growth. Tariffs increased the price of certain goods, even though inflation was relatively moderate. Economists say consumers are relying on their savings to maintain spending. They also claim that this cannot continue indefinitely. In 'February, the saving rate was 4%. Economists warn that higher inflation may offset some of the anticipated stimulus from tax reductions. The boost from tax refunds is expected to fade quickly, leading to weaker spending in this year. The war in the Middle East is expected to have a negative impact on the economy from the second quarter. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Paul Simao & Chizu Nomiyama
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Tax demand has impacted shipments, causing Indian gold imports to fall to a near 30-year-low.
Industry and government sources claim that India's gold imports in April are likely to drop to a low of 15 metric tonnes, a level not seen for 30 years, as banks were allegedly hit with an unexpected tax demand. Surendra Mehta is the secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. He said that since Indian customs started requiring a 3% integrated good and service?tax? on the metal, the banks have stopped importing it. When India introduced the IGST in 2017, gold-importing banks weren't required to pay the 3% levy. Tax demands are now being made on banks following a delay reported earlier in the month. The order authorizing bullion imports for banks was delayed. "Banks have not cleared any gold through?customs in the last month." "A small amount was cleared via the India International Bullion Exchange" (IIBX), said a government representative who refused to be named because they weren't authorised to speak to the media. India's tax authorities have not responded to a comment request?about the IGST that banks are now requesting on gold imports. India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, imported 35 tons in April 2025, and an average of?about 60 tonnes a month during the fiscal year 2025-26 to March. Sources said that the 15-ton April figure is the lowest in around 30 years, except for 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic forced Indian jewellers to close. This could have an impact on the global gold price. Bank bullion dealers estimate that India spent $1.3 billion on imports of gold in April. This is well below the $6 billion monthly average in the previous fiscal year. And this, despite Indians' celebration of Akshaya Tiritiya on April 19, the second biggest gold-buying festival after Dhanteras. A Mumbai-based dealer of gold bullion at a private banking institution said that the supply banks had brought in gold in anticipation of Akshaya Tiritiya demand, but now it was in vaults. He added that 8 tons of 'gold were parked in vaults. The dealer said that banks will only clear shipments after customs officials have allowed them without requiring?GST. Sources said that India's GST on gold and the earlier delay to authorise banks to import gold could be intended to slow down gold?imports in order to narrow the country's?trade deficit and support its rupee. In April, refiners were hit by the denial or delay of new import licences. Harshad Ajmera is a refiner in the eastern city, Kolkata. Chanda Venkatesh is the managing director of CapsGold in Hyderabad, a bullion dealer based on the south. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhadwaj, Alexander Smith and Rajendra Jadhav)
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Nickel has its best month since 2 years, as copper climbs in China
The copper price rose on Thursday, and was poised to 'crack a five-day decline after positive factory data from China. Nickel prices were 'heading towards their biggest monthly jump in two years due to tighter supply coming out of Indonesia. In official open outcry, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $13,085 per metric tonne. Metal used in construction, manufacturing and power was expected to rise by 6% in April. This would be the best month in?2026, based on the hope that the Middle East conflict will be contained. A private survey revealed that China's manufacturing sector expanded in April at the fastest rate since the end 2020, thanks to booming?new orders. Copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose. Continue to be drawn down as 192,025 tonnes fell 4.6% from last week. The SHFE will be closed on Friday for the Labour Day holiday. It won't reopen again until May 6th. The CRU analyst Craig Lang stated on a webinar that the demand for refined copper in China will grow by 2,8% this year due to ongoing grid investments and tighter scrap supply. Lang stated that fund investments have been driving the recent high copper price. Global exchange stocks are at their highest level since early 2000s. Lang said that he believes copper prices will fall to $11,000 by the end of the year, and then recover?over a medium-term. ING stated in a report that additional price support comes from supply-side 'risks' to raw materials sulphur. Nickel was 1% higher at $19 465 per ton, and is on track to gain 13.9% in this month, its largest monthly increase since April 2024, due to tighter mine production limits in Indonesia. Smelters there are also feeling the squeeze of sulphur. Sucden Financial stated that "levels approaching $20,000/t?increase the probability of additional supply?being approved?or reactivated?" Lead edged up 0.3% to $1,943.50, while tin rose 1.9% to $48,700. Aluminium fell 0.2% to $3480. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Sonia Cheema and Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Amy Lv)
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)