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New Hope coal miner in Australia pays out highest dividends since 2022
New Hope Corp, a thermal coal -miner in Australia, declared its 'largest ever final dividend' on Tuesday. This was despite the fact that their annual profit had more than halved and they missed expectations. The shares rose to their highest level in over 3-1/2 years. Rob Bishop, CEO of. "We had a good year and we were able to pay out a large dividend," said he. New Hope announced a final dividend per share of 30 Australian cents for fiscal 2026. This is the highest since 2021 when it was 31 cents and surpasses last year's 15 Australian cents. The company's shares rose by as much as 4.1% in the early trading, reaching their highest level since January 2023. As of 0056 GMT, the broader market was down 0.5%. Sales and production of saleable coal increased by 7.6% and 11.8% respectively. This was due to the ramp-up at its New Acland Mine in Queensland, and the strong performance in the second half of the year at the Bengalla Mine in New South Wales. The annual net profit after taxes fell by 63.4% compared to the previous year, falling to A$161 million ($114.94 millions), the lowest level since fiscal 2021 when A$79million was recorded. Visible Alpha's estimate of A$182.2 millions was also not met. New Hope said that its earnings were negatively affected by a decline of 8.8% in the average realized sales price to A$143.2 per tonne. This was due to unfavourable exchange rate fluctuations, as well as an increase in the percentage of sales with high-ash across the group. The company's Bengalla Growth Project and ramp-up at the New Acland Mine?also contributed to the decline in profits. The company stated that it expects thermal coal prices will be well supported in the medium to long term, due to a shortage of supply caused by ageing assets and a lack of investment in new projects.
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Asian shares fall as oil prices and yields increase ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings
Asian shares struggled on Tuesday, as investors considered Middle East tensions. Industry figures also called for a halt in AI development. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and bond yields heightened caution ahead of 'key' central bank meetings taking place in the U.S. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, launched a new offensive on Saudi Arabia Monday. Riyadh had blamed Iran-backed fighters based in Iraq for an assault on the east-west oil pipeline of the kingdom that could disrupt up to 4% global supply. Gulf Arab states have also delayed planned talks with Iran. Brent crude was up by 1.21% at $106.96 a barrel, while U.S. Crude rose 1.27% to $102,68 per barrel. In a recent note, Yokoo Akihiko, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank said that the markets are likely to continue to focus on the possibility that higher crude oil costs could contribute to 'inflationary forces, and in turn, drive interest rates higher. Leading AI figures have called for a'slow down in development of AI technology. This has continued to resonate through the markets, even as U.S. president Donald Trump has played down concerns about misuse. He said that existing U.S. protections are adequate and China would benefit from any doubts regarding AI development. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.12%. South Korea's 0.25% drop led the way. Japan's Nikkei index edged up 0.19% after reversing its early losses. Shares of chip-related companies were mixed. South Korea's Samsung Electronics lost 0.2%, while Japan's Kioxia rose 3.3%. Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day session later that day. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a rate increase, which would be the first since mid-2023. Morgan Stanley analysts said in an?address that "while inflation continues to decelerate" recent upside surprises have made the pace of disinflation slower and less convincing. They expect a 25 basis point hike on Wednesday and December. "We can see both arguments for a hike or a hold. However, signs of second-round impacts from energy prices and strong demand linked to AI-related investments, as well as a neutral rate which is temporarily higher and concerns over credibility, mean that the balance of risk now argues in favor of a slightly more restrictive policy." Overnight, the benchmark yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 5% for first time in 2023. Germany's 10-year yield rose above 3.51% to its highest level since 2009, and U.S. Treasury bond yields also touched 5% overnight. Tuesday, Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond rate jumped back to 3%. Bank of Japan will likely raise its interest rate to 1.25% by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day session on Friday, and signify that more tightening is to come. The Bank of Japan is looking to bolster the yen following intervention that helped move the currency away from a low for 40 years. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, and euro, increased 0.05%, to 99.53. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.03%, to $1.1543. The dollar rose 0.17% against the Japanese yen to 154.61. Spot gold fell 0.15%, to $4,291.59 per ounce. Spot silver dropped 0.31%, to $63.03 per ounce.
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SB Energy will sell shares worth up to $500,000,000 to Japanese investors as part US IPO
A filing on Tuesday showed that the SoftBank Group-backed Data 'centre developer SB Energy will sell up to $500 million worth of shares to Japanese investors as part a a U.S. public listing. The filing stated that the firm would issue new shares to the Japanese investors and the funds raised would be used for "general operating costs" for the development of data centres, "power generation", and other infrastructure projects. The filing did not disclose the size of the U.S. Initial Public Offering. SoftBank could be looking for a $50 billion valuation for SB Energy. SB Energy's investment prospectus from September reported that Nvidia had committed to investing $1.5 billion at the IPO price in a private placing, while OpenAI was issued warrants valued at approximately $5.5 billion. Investor interest in artificial intelligence led to a flurry of 'public listing' in related firms this year. SpaceX listed in June, and Anthropic is preparing to list in the second half of.this year. Japanese investors?secured a total of $2.2 billion in SpaceX shares at its IPO.
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Interior Secretary Burgum: US wants to issue deep sea mining permits in a few months
The Trump administration announced on Monday that it was close to approving permits to'mine' the deep sea as part of an broader effort to increase U.S. access to the vital minerals needed across the U.S. economy. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told a G20 gathering in Houston of energy ministers that the permits could be issued within months, as the administration pursues its strategy of "energy add" to expand the supply chains of the country and its allies. Donald Trump, since returning to office in 2017, has taken steps to bolster the deep-sea mine industry. However, he still hasn't issued operational permits to allow it to move forward. Many environmentalists are concerned that seabed mining could lead to irreversible biodiversity losses. The Pacific Ocean, and other parts of the world are believed to have large quantities of polymetallic nodules (potato-shaped rocks) that can be used as building blocks for electronic vehicles, weapons and electronics. Burgum stated that "those nodules we have to vacuum up from the sea floor (are filled with?critical minerals we need." Burgum said that part of the solution is to ensure that we have a diverse, reliable, and affordable supply of essential minerals. In the last 18 months, U.S. exports of critical minerals, especially those processed in China by Chinese companies, have been limited as Beijing limits its exports. This has increased pressure on Washington, which is now urging it to support efforts to increase domestic mining. Burgum responded to Burgum's question about when the federal government could issue permits for deep-sea diving: "Those discussions are taking place right now." He added that "you'll hear more in the coming weeks and months because there's exciting developments on that front." Burgum's Interior Department supervises the Marine Minerals Administration which must approve all?permits for mining?U.S. Territorial waters. The MMA review would begin with a lease to allow private companies to have exclusive access to a part of the seabed. Then, a review process would be conducted to determine if an operational permit was needed. This would include a variety of scientific data. Separately Trump wants the Commerce Department to issue international permits. This could lead to a conflict with the United Nations' International Seabed Authority, which has tried to set standards for more than 25 year. The Metals Company, a privately-held company, and Impossible Metals are among the companies that have requested permits for seabed mining. Other companies have also applied for exploration permits.
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Texas penalizes data centers for violating water laws
On Monday, the 'governor' of Texas, a state that is one of the fastest-growing areas for artificial intelligence infrastructure, instructed'state regulators to penalize any data centers who fail to provide details regarding their water usage. Texas, which has halted new data center connections to the state's?electrical grid, pending an assessment of the facilities' water and power use, amongst other issues, re-examines its regulations for server warehouses. Governor Greg Abbott has directed the Texas Water Development Board to "impose legal consequences" to data centers and large water-using entities that fail to report their water usage. Abbott's office issued a statement saying that "major water users including data centers appear to have violated civil and criminal laws by failing to provide TWDB the required information about water usage." The 'Texas water regulator tries to survey data centres about their 'water use and consumption expectations. The data center will be denied new or renewed environmental permits if it fails to submit the survey by the deadline.
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Interior Secretary: US oil export ban unlikely lower energy prices
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated on Monday that a ban on U.S. fuel or oil exports was unlikely to help lower energy prices for consumers in the midst of the Iran War. Burgum, speaking to reporters at the G20 meeting on energy in Houston, said: "We'd consider an export prohibition if it actually could lower prices. But that's not true." Burgum, a Trump appointee, stated that a ban on the export of oil, gasoline, or diesel could result in retaliatory measures from other countries. This could harm consumers in California, whose energy imports are largely dependent on. Burgum stated, "We stopped exporting products, and then someone said, "We're not going to export to California." Burgum stated that California has already shut down several oil refineries which has contributed to the rise in fuel prices. Burgum stated that California already has the highest gas and diesel prices in the nation due to their policies. We don't want to make it worse. The Trump administration has run out of options to reduce prices for diesel and oil, which recently reached a record-high above $6 per gallon, and are even higher in California. The White House is considering how it can use the Cold War Defense Production Act in order to increase U.S. refinery capacity.
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US EPA will undo carbon emissions limits for power plants during G20 meeting
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Monday rules to repeal former President?Joe Biden?s limits on carbon emission from coal-and-gas-fired power stations and to prevent future climate regulations of these facilities. The move is part President Donald Trump’s effort to undo U.S. Climate Policy, which his administration claims has hampered energy production. The announcement was made at the sidelines of the G20 Energy Ministers' meeting in Houston this week, where global officials will discuss "regulatory efficiencies," expanding baseload power, and energy security. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that 'new measures to prevent future regulation on greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector would enable the U.S. build new generating infrastructure to meet the skyrocketing demand for electricity. He said that the Americans have demanded more common sense from federal agencies under President Trump’s leadership at a press conference held in Houston. "That means reducing red tape so that we can build a new power-generating system." Environmental groups slammed this new proposal. They said that it would be more expensive in terms of damage to the public and the environment. Nearly a quarter (25%) of U.S. emissions are attributed to the electricity sector. In June 2017, the Trump administration proposed to repeal regulations written by Biden that would have reduced emissions of mercury, carbon dioxide and other air pollutants at power plants. Biden's carbon emissions rules for power plants would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one billion metric tonnes by 2047 as part of his administration’s fight against climate changes. This rule would have required that coal-fired power stations and new natural gas-fired generators install equipment to capture emissions in the next decade before they reach the atmosphere. This requirement made zero-emissions options like solar and wind attractive. Denying the existence of climate pollution that accounts for a quarter in the United States is reckless. Maggie Coulter said on Monday that it would 'lead to greater suffering and loss of life from extreme heatwaves, severe storms and destructive 'wildfires', similar to those we have seen this summer. According to a report by a reporter, Under Secretary of Energy Kyle Haustveit said that the new regulations would boost 'coal-fired electric power in the U.S. which has been steadily declining due to the availability and cheaper natural gas. He said, "President Trump has ended the war against beautiful, clean coal." "Coal has many advantages: it is affordable, reliable and secure."
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VTB sanctions imposed by the U.S.
Treasury Department: The United States imposed Iran-related Sanctions on Monday against?Russia's VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company accusing it of involvement in Iranian sanctions evasion. Washington is seeking to increase economic pressure on Tehran. This action is a continuation of the sanctions that were imposed in 2022 against VTB, Russia’s second largest?lender. The bank was targeted following Moscow's full-scale invasion into Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that "Under Operation Economic Outcast Treasury will continue to target those who provide material or financial support to the Iranian regime to enable it to maintain its terrorist enterprise." Treasury will not tolerate any regime support and will continue to expose and isolate Iran’s "enablers." Bessent warned that the Trump administration will sanction a "large bank" as it continues to exert economic pressure on Tehran in order to end a six-month conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Since the conflict began in February, the 'United States' has taken a number of economic measures to target Iran, including oil exports, shipping networks, channels for weapons procurement, financial intermediaries and digital asset exchanges.
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)