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US secures $1 Trillion Saudi spending commitments, ranging from nuclear energy to F-35s
The U.S. government has increased its U.S. investment plans to $1 trillion following the lavish welcome that Donald Trump gave to Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Washington, which was hailed by many as a rehabilitation of his human rights record. This is a significant increase over the $600 billion announced by the world's biggest exporter during Trump's Riyadh visit six months ago. Bin Salman will meet with top U.S. business leaders on Wednesday. Here are some of deals and frameworks that the U.S. announced with Saudi Arabia in this week. Energy Sector The U.S. signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, which laid the groundwork for a decades-long partnership. It also ensured that projects met strict nonproliferation guidelines and American firms were preferred partners. Bin Salman has long sought a nuclear agreement, but progress on it has been slow because the Saudis refused to accept a U.S. requirement that would have prohibited enriching uranium and reprocessing used fuel, both of which could lead to a weapon. Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy secretary, said that Wednesday the nuclear agreement does not permit enrichment. Saudi Aramco has also announced that it has signed 17 Memorandums of Understanding and Agreements with major U.S. Companies, with a total potential value of over $30 billion. Critical Minerals Washington and Riyadh signed a framework for minerals, enhancing collaboration to diversify the supply chains and strengthen U.S. resilience. This builds on similar agreements Trump has secured with other allies. After the U.S.-China trade conflict exposed the overt dependence of supply chains around the world on China, critical minerals have become an important pillar in geopolitical discussions. Separately MP Materials announced on Wednesday that it would build a rare-earths refinery with the U.S. Department of Defense, and Saudi Arabian State-owned Mining Company Maaden in Saudi Arabia to expand Middle Eastern processing of these critical minerals. Artificial Intelligence The U.S. signed a memorandum with Saudi Arabia on AI, giving Riyadh the American advantage in technology that is now the foundation of global equity gains. Nvidia, a leader in the sector, announced Wednesday that it will be working with Saudi Arabia to build supercomputers. Strategic Defense Agreement Trump and bin Salman have signed a strategic defence agreement. This agreement strengthens an 80-year-old partnership. It also eases U.S. Defense firms' operations in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia had initially sought a NATO-style agreement that was ratified by Congress. F-35 Fighter Jets & American Tanks The White House announced that Trump approved future deliveries F-35 fighter planes, and the Saudis agreed to buy 300 American tanks. This would be the first time the United States has sold advanced fighter jets, including stealth jets, to Riyadh. It is a major policy shift. Israel was the only Middle East country to possess the F-35 until now. Trade and Capital Markets Washington and Riyadh accelerated investment opportunities to expand U.S. Exports and lower trade barriers. This will deliver direct gains for American Manufacturers on global markets. U.S. Treasury signed an agreement with the Saudi Finance Ministry to enhance collaboration in capital markets standards, technology and regulations. The accord also strengthens ties between international financial institutions. Source: White House Fact Sheet, Company Press Releases (Reporting and editing by Pritam Bhandari and Ateev Bhandari in Bengaluru. Maju Samuel is the editor).
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Connecticut regulators stop Eversource from selling Aquarion for $2.4 billion
Eversource Energy's shares dropped over 10% after Connecticut regulators refused to approve the company's plan to sell its water utility. This was a blow to Eversource Energy's efforts at streamlining operations and reducing debt. Eversource sold Aquarion to a third party in January for $2.4 billion. Eversource acquired the water utility back in 2017 for $1.7 billion. The regulator concluded that despite meeting the financial and technological requirements, and ensuring a safe and reliable service for customers, the deal failed to meet the managerial suitability and responsible requirements in a way "consistent with the public's interest". Eversource replied that the state is interested in expanding non-profit models. PURA, however, found it difficult to switch from the investor-owned business model when tested. The 2024 Special Act directed the state's investigation into whether a non-profit model of ownership could better serve customers. Eversource, Aquarion Water Authority and South Central Connecticut Regional Water Authority filed the application to transfer control of Aquarion. Aquarion offers public water distribution and supply services to more than 226,000 customers across 73 towns and cities in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. The transaction was scheduled to close by the end of 2025. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru, Sumit Saha)
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Lula, Brazil's Lula, makes a diplomatic push to get an early climate agreement at the COP30 Summit
Brazil's President met with key negotiators on Wednesday at the COP30 Summit in an effort to reach a quick agreement on the most controversial issues of the global climate talks. These include fossil fuels, climate finance and other hot-button topics. Nearly 200 countries have gathered for a two-week U.N. Summit in the Amazonian city of Belem to increase multilateral action on climate change despite the absence from the U.S. There are still rifts over key issues, which is a new test for the international commitment to slowing global warming. Brazil hopes to break the recent trend of climate summits that ran past the deadline. It wants to approve a package on Wednesday and then address the remaining issues on Friday. It is facing delays in publishing new negotiation texts. NEW DRAFT TO BE PUBLISHED WEDNESDAY. The COP30 Presidency had planned to release a new draft of the original deal on Wednesday morning, but by early afternoon no announcements were made. Negotiators said that tough negotiations were still ongoing. The first version, published on Tuesday, presented a number of options which divided opinion. Brazil and 80 other nations that support the deal want to reach an agreement to help spur action for a 2023 COP28 agreement to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Andre Correa do Lago, Brazil's COP30 president, said that the idea of creating an action plan to guide this transition was rejected by many others. Luiz inacio Lula da So arrived at the conference again on Wednesday to give the talks a new political boost. He was to meet with key negotiators and U.N. secretary-general Antonio Guterres. VANUATU: 'WE HAVE BLOCKERS' Vanuatu, an island nation in the Pacific Ocean, has a climate minister Ralph Regenvanu who told Saudi Arabia that Saudi Arabia is one of those opposing the fossil fuel plan. Saudi Arabia has not responded to comments immediately. Regenvanu stated, "I believe it will be very difficult... because we have blockers." Other island nations also said that the issue is vital. "We will have to fight tooth-and-nail." Tina Stege, Marshall Islands climate envoy, said many parties have stated that they don't want this in the text. A coalition of 100 organisations including Volvo and Unilever sent a letter, expressing their support for a roadmap that would assist countries and businesses in planning the transition to cleaner energy. Climate Finance The package also includes a number of other contentious issues, including how wealthy countries will finance poorer countries' switch to clean energy and what needs to be done to close the gap between emissions reductions promised and those required to stop temperature rises. The poorer countries, who are already suffering from the effects of global warming, rally for a strong result. We want ambition in finance. "We want ambition on adaption. "We want to see ambitious plans for the transition", Jiwoh Abdulai said, Sierra Leone’s climate minister. "We want to make sure that we are living on a sustainable path, not only for our generation but also for future generations." Five sources said that plans to launch a U.N. supported global market to trade carbon offset credits hit a snag due to disagreements between governments over funding. Five sources said that the funding to get the market up and running has been a problem as governments disagree over who will fund it.
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US lawmakers warn that any civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia must not lead to an arms race
U.S. legislators warned against a nuclear arms races in the Middle East following the announcement by the United States and Saudi Arabia that they had signed an initial agreement for civil nuclear energy collaboration. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed an initial agreement for civil nuclear cooperation on Tuesday, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made his first White House trip in over seven years. The countries have been in talks about nuclear power cooperation for many years, including under the former president Joe Biden. Progress has been slow because Saudi Arabia has refused to accept U.S. demands that would have prohibited enriching uranium and reprocessing used fuel, which could lead to the development of a nuclear weapon. DEMOCRATS CALL FOR IMPROVED INSPECTIONS Senator Jeanne Shaheen is the top Democrat in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She said that any agreement with Saudi Arabia should include enhanced inspections via an agreement called the Additional Protocol. This protocol increases the International Atomic Energy Agency's ability to verify the peaceful use of nuclear material. She said it is crucial that the U.S. holds Saudi Arabia to a "gold standard" under the 123 Agreement, to ensure Riyadh does not enrich uranium and reprocess Plutonium. This is what the United Arab Emirates did in 2009, when they signed a civil nuclear pact, with Washington. "We cannot fuel a nuclear race in the Middle East." Concerns about nuclear proliferation grew after the crown prince said to CBS in 2018: "Saudi Arabia doesn't want to acquire any nuke bombs, but we will certainly follow Iran if they develop a bomb as soon as it is possible." Wright said to Fox News that the original agreement did not include uranium enrichment. Wright stated that the deal was not about uranium enrichment or anything else related to weapons. He had said a day earlier that the deal includes "bilateral safety agreements" and an agreement to prevent proliferation. Some lawmakers and experts in non-proliferation said that the agreement should not be expanded to allow enrichment or reprocessing. Ed Markey, a Democrat Senator from Massachusetts said: "We cannot give Saudi Arabia nuclear technology while ignoring their desire for nuclear weapons." "I urge the Trump administration insist on gold standard safeguards, such as enrichment bans and complete inspections, before any deal." Andrea Stricker is a nonproliferation specialist and deputy director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. She said that if the U.S. was lax in its safeguards towards Saudi Arabia, then it would be harder to convince Iran of the importance of not reconstituting and reprocessing. Stricker stated that Wright had said the same thing on Fox. (Reporting and editing by Rod Nickel; Timothy Gardner)
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Lithuania to reopen Belarus borders after balloon incidents
Lithuania said it will reopen the border crossings to Belarus after a temporary closure was imposed due to balloons used by smugglers disrupting airspace. The Prime Minister's spokesperson announced that the two border crossings would reopen Thursday. Last month, Lithuania announced that they would be closed until the end November due to weather balloons from Belarus which have caused disruptions in air traffic. Lithuania said that the balloons were flown by smugglers who transported contraband cigarettes. It blamed Belarus's president Alexander Lukashenko, calling the practice a "hybrid assault". In recent weeks, the number of air traffic incidents has decreased. Vilnius Airport was closed for eight days last. The Lithuanian Interior minister Vladislav Kondratovic said that the situation has changed, and state border crossing restrictions are no longer necessary to maintain domestic security. Belarus later said it received an official notification from Lithuania stating that two border crossings will be reopened Thursday at 1100 Minsk time (2220 GMT). Both countries share a total of six border crossings. "The Belarusian Border Service is ready to resume the passage of individuals and vehicles at the Belarusian-Lithuanian section of the border," the Belarus State Border Committee said in a statement on Telegram. Poland reopened this week two border crossings near Lithuania with Belarus that it had closed for the past two weeks to show solidarity with its neighbor. Lukashenko called the border closure "crazy scam", and accused the West of fighting an hybrid war against Belarus, Russia, which was ushering a new age of barbed wire division. Lithuania accuses Belarus of holding 1,000 Lithuanian trucks in Belarus to prevent them from returning home once the border has been closed. (Reporting and additional reporting by Gwladys Fauch, editing by Stine Jacobsen, Terje Solsvik, Ed Osmond, Stine Jacobsen)
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SQM's profits and demand outlook are boosted by the recent rise in lithium prices
SQM, a Chilean lithium producer, said that the demand for lithium could increase by 25% in 2019 compared to 2024. The company reported on Wednesday its highest prices in two years, driven by an increased use of electric vehicles and energy storage. SQM's third-quarter net income grew 36% on-year, from $131.4 to $178.4 millions. The revenue also increased, rising 8.9% from $1.08 billion to $1.17 Billion. SQM shares listed in the United States rose to a record high of $64.60 per share on Wednesday, marking their highest level for over two years. In recent months, lithium prices have cooled since 2022, when they reached record highs. This is because supply growth has outpaced demand. This has impacted margins of global producers such as SQM, and U.S. based Albemarle. Yet the July-to-September period marked stronger-than-expected demand, SQM said. In a conference call with analysts, CEO Ricardo Ramos said, "We are cautiously optimistic, even though the market is highly volatile." He also noted that he expects the trend to continue into the fourth quarter. He said that the demand for energy storage systems and electric vehicles is still strong. SQM has also reduced its investment forecast for 2025-2027 by a significant amount, reducing its estimate of capital expenditure to $2.7 billion. SQM's investment outlook for 2025 to 2027 has also been significantly narrowed. It has revised its capital expenditure estimate from $3.1-$3.8 billion. The company admitted that some of its investment decisions had been delayed, but it maintained its production and sale targets. The company stated that the revised capex would be distributed evenly throughout each year with roughly a quarter of it going towards maintenance. Pablo Hernandez, Vice President of Strategy and Development at SQM Chile's lithium division, stated that SQM anticipates the lithium demand to increase by 25% this year, to more than 1.5 metric tonnes, and to 1.7 metric tonnes in 2026. He said that he was still assessing the demand growth expectations for next year. "We remain conservative," he added. SQM is one of two lithium producers in Chile, along with Albemarle. It also produces fertilizers and industrial chemical products. SQM said that it also expects to finalize its partnership with Codelco, the state-owned miner in charge of lithium extraction on the Atacama Salt Flat by the end the year. The only approval still needed is from Chile's comptroller, after China's market regulator approved the deal last week. Ramos said to analysts that "we will close this year." Reporting by Daina Solomon in Santiago, and Disha Mishra from Bengaluru. Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Aurora Ellis and Nivedita Bhattacharjee.
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Carson Block, Muddy Waters' Carson Block, says he owns Snowline Gold Corp.
Muddy Waters founder Carson Block announced on Wednesday that he had taken a position long in Canadian gold mining company Snowline Gold Corp. This marks a departure from the famous short seller. Snowline Gold Corp. is working on potential projects that Block believes are undervalued in comparison to gold prices and the amount of valuable metals the sites can produce. Block spoke at the Sohn Conference, held in London. Block, in describing the public reports that the junior miner released, said that the company took a conservative approach with its own growth forecasts. Block said, "We believe this project is feasible at $1800 gold. We don't think there are any downside risks at that price." Gold has risen to around $4,070 per ounce. This is not far off recent record prices. The junior gold mining company is located in Canada's Yukon and has multiple projects, including the Rogue Valley deposit which is estimated to contain around 8 million ounces gold. The company didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. A long position is basically a bet on the value of an asset.
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Greek refiner Motor Oil doubles nine-month net profit
Motor Oil, a Greek refiner, reported on Wednesday a dramatic increase in its nine-month net income. This was boosted by higher refining margins for the third quarter and an insurance payout following a fire that occurred at its Corinth Refinery. The group reported a net profit of 453.2 millions euros ($523million) for the period January-September, compared to 224.1 million euro a year ago. Motor Oil reported that it had received 244 million euro in insurance proceeds for the period. This included 211 million for business interruption, and 33 million for damage to assets after last year's blaze. The Corinth Refinery is Greece's 2nd largest refinery and represents more than one third of the refining capacity in the country. The revenue dropped from 9.37 billion euros to 8.48 billion euro in the same time period last year. The largest contributor to sales was refining, which generated 4.31 billion euro, followed by fuel marketing, with 3.46 billion. The net debt of the company increased from 1.73 billion euro at the end 2024 to 1.89 billion euro by the end September. This was largely due to investments in renewable energy and the expansion of the retail network. Motor Oil's gearing rate improved from 0.63 to 0.59, despite the increase, thanks to higher equity. $1 = 0.8664 euro (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Emelia Sithole Matarise).
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)