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Heatwave in Australia records record-breaking heatwave that fuels bushfires and cuts power to thousands
The record-breaking heatwave that swept Australia's south-east for the fifth straight day Wednesday sparked bushfires, strained the power grid and left thousands of properties without electricity. Authorities said that the heatwave in Victoria is expected to continue until the weekend. It is the worst since 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, which killed 173 people. Tim Wiebusch, Victorian Emergency Management Commissioner said: "We have now entered day five of a severe and intense heatwave in Victoria. We are beginning to see some of these impacts." "An extreme heat warning still exists, and we expect to see eight days of extreme heat." David Crock of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said that climate change was driving the heat and described the temperatures as "very unusual". Crock stated that the severity of the heatwave this year is comparable to January 2009 and the heatwave from January 1939. The data show a long-term rise in heatwave intensity and frequency, especially since the year 2000. This is due to climate change. Crock reported that a number of records were broken for temperatures in Victoria on February 2. He said that about 20 stations in western Victoria had either broken all-time or January records. The highest temperature recorded in the state was 48.9 degrees Celsius. Conditions in Victoria were slightly better on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures in the upper western part of New South Wales state and the south-western region of Queensland state reached 48 C (118 F). In Victoria, around 11,000 homes were without power. This is down from 105,000 the day before. Six major fires were also being fought by firefighters, three of which were out-of-control. The fire at Carlisle River, in the Otways Region, has destroyed more than 11,000 acres (27 181 acres). Chris Hardman said that the fire at Carlisle River was far from being out. We are still in the early summer. "We'll see the heat and wind coming back before this fire is completely contained." Many communities are still struggling to recover from the large bushfires that started the month. These fires were also caused by a severe heatwave. Over 400 homes and 400,000 acres of land have already been destroyed.
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After winter storm, US supply concerns persist and oil prices are rising
The oil prices rose on Wednesday, as supply concerns remained after a winter storm that disrupted U.S. crude exports and production. Middle?East tensions also contributed to the increase. Brent crude futures increased 11 cents or 0.2% to $67.68 per barrel at 0725 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 19 cents or 0.3% to $62.58 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose by about 3% Tuesday. Analysts and traders estimated that the storm had caused the U.S. to lose up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or 15% of the nation's output, over the weekend. Ship tracking service Vortexa reported that Crude and Liquefied Natural Gas exports from U.S. Gulf Coast port ports fell to zero on Sunday. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities said that the rally is also due to a loss of production in Kazakhstan. Tazawa stated that "sales pressure will likely return once the supply concerns ease." He said that a global crude oil supply surplus projected for this year amid geopolitical risk, such as the Middle East tensions could keep WTI around $60 per barrel?for now. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that Tengiz's largest oilfield in Kazakhstan is expected to?restore less than half its normal production on February 7, as it slowly recovers after a fire and a power outage. This was a counter-argument to comments made by CPC, the pipeline operator that handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. CPC claimed it had restored full loading capacity at their Black Sea terminal following maintenance on one of three moorings. SUPPLY FEARS? REMAIN AMID MIDERAST TENSIONS Two U.S. officials who refused to be named said on Monday that a U.S. aircraft carriers and accompanying warships had arrived in the Middle East. This added to President Donald Trump's ability to defend U.S. troops or take possible military action against Iran. This has increased the likelihood that Trump will 'follow through' on his threat to strike Iran’s senior leadership as a response to the violent crackdown of nationwide protests. ANZ analysts said in a report. At a meeting held on 1 February, three OPEC+ delegates stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is'set' to maintain its pause in oil production increases for the month of March. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles are expected to have increased in the week ending January 23. However, distillate stocks will likely be down. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks all fell last week while the latter rose. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing and Neil Fullick.)
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Steelmaker SSAB exceeds earnings forecast aided to improved Americas business
SSAB, a Swedish steelmaker, reported a 'bigger than anticipated rise in its operating 'profit 'in its fourth quarter on Wednesday. This was aided by an improved performance from its Americas division. Operating earnings increased to 756 billion Swedish Crowns ($86 billion), from 487 millions crowns during the same quarter in 2024. A poll by SSAB revealed that analysts expected a median of?606.1million crowns. The company produces high-strength, specialized steels for cars, construction equipment and agricultural machinery, and has production facilities both on the Atlantic and in Europe. In the earnings report, CEO Johnny Sjostrom stated that "there have been few direct effects" of the US steel tariffs because SSAB has a premium strategy, and significant local production in the US. The first trade measures of Donald Trump were aimed at steel and aluminum. Since June, these imports from the majority of countries have been subjected to a 50% increase in?duties. SSAB delivered 1.5 million tonnes in the last quarter of 2014 and stated that it expected shipments to be higher in the first three months of 2015 due to a better season. The company also said it expects the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism, which tightens the rules on high emission imports like?steel, and cracksdown on attempts to avoid the levy to improve supply-demand balance in the European Market. The proposed dividend was 2 crowns, or 23% less than the 2,60 crowns that it paid last year.
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Demand for iron ore falls as construction stops weigh down on demand
The price of iron ore continued to fall on Wednesday as the Chinese Lunar New Year dragged down the demand for steel, and feedstocks. The most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 0.7% lower, at 783 Yuan ($112.74) per metric ton. As of?0705, the benchmark March iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.79% at $103 per ton. According to Chinese?broker Everbright Futures, the downstream steel demand has shrunk with the cessation in construction projects as we approach the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. The company Vale announced on Tuesday that its iron ore production would reach 336.1 million tonnes in 2025. This is the first time that Vale has surpassed the Pilbara operations of Rio Tinto in Australia. According to a late-Monday filing, the company had halted its operations after water overflowed on the sites. The units are estimated by analysts to account for 2% of the iron ore production forecast for this year. Iron ore exports from Brazil are expected to increase, putting downward pressure on the price of Chinese iron?ore. Brazilian shipments will experience a seasonal drop as the country enters its rainy season. According to a Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) note, however, the high port inventories will offset any potential gains from reduced shipments. Coking coal was up by 0.44%, while coke fell by 0.12%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mostly lower. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.39%, rebar 0.32% and stainless steel 1.5%. Wire rod, meanwhile, gained 0.17%. $1 = 6.9450 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Janane Venkatraman).
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Draft document: EU and Vietnam agree to increase work on minerals, chips, and "trusted" (5G), draft document says
According to a draft of a joint statement that will be adopted by the two sides on Thursday, they want to increase trade and investments in critical minerals, semiconductors, and infrastructure. The document is eight pages long and subject to changes. It states that the EU will explore a possible transfer of defence tech to Hanoi as both sides strive for closer cooperation in "trusted" networks, at a moment when Chinese companies are winning contracts to develop 5G technology in Vietnam. The statement will be signed by the European Council's President Antonio Costa when he meets Vietnam's leaders on Thursday in Hanoi, just days after To Lam was reappointed as Vietnam's top leader by the ruling Communist Party. Both countries will raise their diplomatic relations to the highest level in Vietnam, comparable to that of the United States, China, and Russia. In 2020, an EU-Vietnam?free trade agreement came into effect. The document is not legally binding but it has political significance and contains indirect criticisms of the United States', China's and Russia's international strategies. The European Council refused to comment on this draft document, and the Vietnamese government didn't respond to an inquiry for comments. CRITICAL MINERALS and SEMICONDUCTORS Vietnam is home to significant, but mostly untapped, reserves of rare earths and gallium. Hanoi has expressed interest in developing the processing capacity of rare earths. The global supply and refinement is dominated by China. The progress of Vietnam has been slow, partly because it lacks the necessary technology to fully exploit its natural resources. Document: The EU and Vietnam are looking to increase their cooperation in this sector by promoting "trade and investments in goods, technologies, and services that support sustainable mining, processing, and production" of critical minerals. Vietnam is a leading supplier of tungsten (a hard metal that's used in electronics and defence), and Western diplomats warned against the possibility of Chinese involvement in a large mine in Vietnam. China's Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request. The draft statement also identifies supply chains as a priority area to deepen cooperation. Vietnam is a key player in the chip packaging, testing, and assembly industry, and hosts operations from Intel, Amkor Technology, and others. Vietnam started building its first semiconductor manufacturing facility earlier this month. The Vietnamese government announced earlier this month that ASML, a Dutch company and global leader in chipmaking machines has moved some of its production to Vietnam. It is also exploring ways to expand its supply chain there and provide potential customers with goods, according the Vietnamese government. This was after a meeting at a high level held in Hanoi. ASML did not respond to a request for comment. 5G, DEFENCE, INFRASTURCTURE The document cites 5G connectivity and expanding cooperation on "trusted communication infrastructure" as priorities. The 5G network in Vietnam is being developed by European companies Ericsson, Nokia, and Nokia. Last year, Hanoi awarded smaller contracts to Chinese firms, including Huawei. The document stated that both sides will increase security cooperation while the EU would consider transferring "non sensitive technology and know-how". According to the document, EU nations are interested in investing in Vietnamese railways and infrastructure. Vietnam is building its largest project to date, a nationwide high-speed rail network. U.S.A., CHINA and RUSSIA In an opinion piece published on Wednesday by Vietnam's official news agency, EU President Costa warned against "coercive trading practices" and "challenges of sovereignty and international laws". The draft statement reaffirmed its support for an "international order based on rules" and for the strengthening of the World Trade Organization at a moment when the U.S. is imposing tariffs and undermining multilateral organizations. Vietnam called for respect of "territorial integrity" and a "just peace in Ukraine", a country that is being attacked by Russia, which has been a close partner for many years. The report said that the two countries had agreed to explore a deeper level of maritime security co-operation, in order to achieve stability in the South China Sea where China's claims and Vietnam's conflict. (Reporting and editing by Francesco Guarascio)
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SpaceX's June 2026 IPO is valued at $1.5 trillion, according to FT
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Elon Musk is considering a mid-June IPO, with a goal of raising as much as $50 Billion at a valuation around $1.5 Trillion. Could not verify the report immediately. SpaceX has not responded to our request for comment. The rocket and satellite company is now the biggest deal in history, after Saudi Aramco, which raised $29 billion in its IPO in 2019. The IPO valued Aramco at $1.7 trillion, making it the only completed 'deal' to achieve a valuation exceeding $1 trillion. The newspaper reported that SpaceX's Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnson has been in contact with private investors to discuss a possible IPO for mid-2026. Musk has always expressed his preference to keep SpaceX private. However, those familiar with Musk's thinking have indicated that the growing value of the company and its Starlink satellite internet service have led him to change strategy. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX has lined up four Wall Street banks to play leading roles in the company's market debut. The report cited a source. The global financial markets are preparing for a potential year of mega U.S. listing, led by SpaceX. Artificial intelligence firms Anthropic, and OpenAI have also begun laying the groundwork for possible IPOs. After three years of low activity on the U.S. equity market, a resurgence began in 2025 partly due to the ongoing volatility and geopolitical tensions. Analysts have stated that space technology is a highly regulated sector, but investors are interested in it because of its rapid growth prospects. (Reporting by Ananya Palyekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Harikrishnan Nair)
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Sources say that India is considering tightening mining auction rules in order to discourage laggards.
Two sources familiar with the issue said that India was considering tightening the rules for mining auctions to eliminate developers who delay obtaining clearances?to mine the blocks they won at auctions. The country is aiming to speed up its minerals production. According to official data, since 2015, the government auctioned off 594 mineral blocks. Of these, less than 14%, or 82 blocks, were operational. Sources said that India, as part of its internal assessment, has identified 50 companies who have not started mining, and in some cases, have not sought approval to do so, on the blocks they were awarded over the past five years. They may be blacklisted from participating in future auctions. The two sources refused to identify themselves as they weren't authorised to speak to media. The Federal Ministry of Mines?did not respond to an email seeking comment. One source said that India will assess the financials and past experience of a mining company before allowing them to bid. We will tighten the criteria for selection so that only well-known companies are allowed to participate. The source said that the matter is still at the discussion stage. She added that any finalised changes could take several months. The Mines Ministry announced publicly in October that?penalties would be imposed on those miners who delayed obtaining clearances for the operationalisation of blocks purchased at auctions. The government expressed concern about the slow development of iron ore greenfield mines last year. India is lagging behind major economies like Australia when it comes to mining's contribution to the gross domestic product. It hovers around 2%. A joint report by the government and industry released last year stated that "this is due to?a combination of factors such as regulatory and environment challenges in obtaining clearances and approvals, inadequate infrastructure and investment, and technological constraints." (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by NehaArora)
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Andy Home: The Zinc Market continues to defy expectations
Zinc did not perform according to script in 2018 and the galvanising material continues to surprise 2026. The London Metal Exchange (LME) is trading at its highest levels in three years this week. A market that was expected to move to an oversupply by 2025, was instead rocked?by a fierce squeeze in October. The global mine production is growing at a rapid pace, but it is taking longer than expected to get the metals refined in the supply chain. This is because the excess is all stuck in China. LME zinc inventories have increased from the depleted levels of October thanks to an influx of Chinese exports. The inventory rebuilding has slowed in recent weeks. This suggests that the Western market requires more consistent Chinese supply. Mine Supply on Track Zinc's bear story is based on increasing mine production, and things are going according to plan. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global mine production grew by 6.5% in the first ten months of 2025. Boliden’s Tara mine, located in Ireland, has reopened after being closed in mid-2023 because of low prices. Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi operation is also ramping up in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Russian mine Ozernoye has also begun full production following a year-long delay due to a combination between a fire in November 2023 and a shortage of spare parts because of Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. China's dramatic increase in raw material imports is a clear indication of the impact. The volume of zinc concentrates imported into China increased by 30% on an annual basis, reaching a record 5.33 million metric tonnes in 2025. According to ILZSG, the turnaround in the market for zinc concentrates allowed?China's production of refined zinc to increase by 8.4% in first 10 months 2025. CHINA TRADE SHIFTS The global refined?zinc output, however, increased by only 2.9% over the same period, because smelter production outside of China decreased by 2.2% compared to 2024. The closure of Toho Zinc Annaka and the temporary suspension at the Seokpo Smelter in South Korea have contributed to the lower metal production in Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Korea. The Western markets are now dependent on Chinese exports in order to fill the gaps in their supply chain. China's refined zinc trade began to shift in the fourth quarter last year when it became a net importer for the country for the first since 2022. Exports rose to 42,800 tonnes in November, the largest monthly total in nearly 20 years. Chinese smelters sent metal to LME storage facilities in Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan in order to benefit from the historic increase in the cash premium, which reached over $300 per tonne. Exports fell to 27,000 tonnes in December as the LME tightness subsided. REBUILD OF PARTIAL STOCKS China's late year export surge helped LME warehouse stock recover from less than 50,000 tons in November to 131,000 tonnes at the end December. The upward trend has slowed down since then. Exchange inventory, both registered and non-warranted, is currently at 138,000 tonnes. The amount of metals that are earmarked to be physically loaded out, as indicated by the number of cancelled warrants, has steadily increased to 12,100 tonnes, or almost 11%, of the registered tonnage. This suggests that the Western market is still short of zinc, and requires more Chinese supply in order to meet the demand. On paper, the global zinc supply is growing. However, with the excess metal in China it will require higher LME prices in order to get it out. Last year, the disconnect between east and west in zinc caught bears off guard. The LME's three-month zinc is trading at over $3,300 per tonne for the first since January 2023. Bears may have to wait before the market conforms to their expectations. Andy Home is an author and columnist. These opinions are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)