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Middle East risk premium fading as oil falls on Gaza plan
Early Thursday, oil prices dropped after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of the plan to end the Gaza war. This weighed on the war risk premium for oil and pushed investors to sell. Brent crude futures fell 51 cents or 0.77% to $65.74 per barrel at 0002 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 55 cents or 0.88% to $62. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a long sought-after deal on a Gaza ceasefire, including the release of hostages. The plan was to end the war that has raged in the Palestinian enclave for two years. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that he will convene the Israeli government on Thursday in order to approve the ceasefire accord. Investors have been weighing the risk of a regional war escalating into a global conflict that could affect oil supplies. Investors viewed the stalled progress in a Ukraine peace agreement as maintaining sanctions against Russia. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the total weekly U.S. supply of petroleum products, which is a proxy for U.S. consumption of oil, increased last week to 21,990 million barrels a day, the highest since December 2022. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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Sources say that the Indian government is seeking a resolution to the dispute with Tata Charity arm.
Sources told Reuters that two senior Indian ministers intervened in a rare intervention to urge the charity arm of Tata Group to resolve internal boardroom conflicts to ensure stability for the $180 billion business empire they control. Sources say that the discord within Tata Trusts a year after Ratan Tata's death has sparked fears of a repeat in the bitter public spat of 2016 between the charity and Tata Sons which tarnished India's most famous group. Tata Trusts holds a 66% stake of Tata Sons and has the power to make major strategic decisions. Tata Sons is responsible for 30 companies, including consumer goods, autos, and airlines. These include Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, and Air India. Two industry sources said that the disagreements within Tata Trusts over the past few weeks have been about which trustees would sit on the Tata Sons Board, the overall business direction of the group, and how to handle the planned exit by minority shareholder Shapoorji Palalonji. TATAS IS ASKED TO RESOLVE ISSUE BY THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT Two Indian ministers met on Tuesday with N. Chandrasekaran, the chair of Tata Sons and Noel Tata, the head of Tata Trusts in New Delhi to discuss and resolve the dispute. This was according to a government official and a source from the industry. Sources said that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attended the rare direct intervention of the government. Indian media reported that the other senior official was Minister of Home Affairs Amit A Shah. The official who was present at the Tuesday discussions said, "The government wants to restore stability and resolve issues." Sources declined to name themselves as the matter was confidential. Tata Trusts & Tata Sons has not publicly commented on this matter which was widely reported in Indian Media. Both companies did not respond to requests for comment. India's Finance Ministry and Home Affairs Ministry did not respond to comments. Tata Trusts disagreed with Cyrus Mistry, the Tata Sons chairman, and legal battles ensued. Mistry passed away in 2022, but Shapoorji Pallonji still holds an 18% stake of Tata Sons. Tata Trusts trustees are divided over how Shapoorji Pallonji's plan to split with the Tatas, which has been delayed for years, will be implemented and what effect it will have on the conglomerate. Shapoorji pallonji has not responded to our request for a comment. Aditya K. Kalra, Aftab A. Ahmed, Ira Duggal Aditi S. Shah, Khushi M. Malhotra and Joe Bavier contributed to the reporting.
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Liontown Resources changes loan and supply agreements with Ford Motor; shares are advanced
Liontown Resources announced on Thursday that it had amended its loan agreements and spodumene supplies with Ford Motor. The aim was to increase near-term liquidity, and gain greater flexibility in the marketing of outputs as production at its Kathleen Valley Lithium project in Western Australia ramps up. Liontown stated that the principal and interest due Ford for fiscal 2026 will be deferred 12 months. All other loan conditions remain unchanged. The S&P/ASX 200 index, which was up 0.3% at 2318 GMT, lagged behind the battery minerals producer, whose shares rose 3.4% to A$1.065. This is the highest share price since mid-June, 2024. Ford will receive 256 250 dry metric tons of spodumene from the company starting in 2027. The company said that no deliveries would be made to Ford during 2027 or 2028. Ford can opt to cancel its "take-or-pay" commitments on the remaining volumes, according to Liontown. Liontown said that the amendments will allow it to sell more products on the spot market, or enter into new strategic partnerships. The revised deal comes after Perth-based Liontown announced it would revise the pricing terms in their long-term agreement with Tesla as the miner wanted a broader exposure to benchmarks for lithium prices. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, with Roshan Thomas reporting from Bengaluru)
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Brazilian Rare Earths sells feedstock to Carester
Brazilian Rare Earths, a company listed in Australia, announced on Thursday it had signed agreements with Carester SAS to supply heavy rare earths for an initial period of 10 years. Carester will provide engineering and technical support for the separation plant that Brazilian Rare Earths plans to build at the Camacari Petrochemical Complex in Bahia, Brazil. Over a ten-year period, the processor will purchase a maximum 150 tonnes of dysprosium or terbium per year from Brazilian Rare Earths. The partnership is designed to address the shortage of the critical minerals dysprosium (as well as terbium), which are essential to the production of permanent magnets with high performance. It comes at a moment when the west wants to reduce its dependence on China's dominant supply chain. Carester is, for example, building a rare-earth separation and recycling facility that has received over 216 millions euros ($251.25million) in funding from the French Government and Japanese entities. Carester's technical expertise and downstream capabilities will allow us to quickly convert our rare earths of ultra-high quality into the essential products that customers demand. said Bernardo da Veiga, CEO of Brazilian Rare Earths. It is becoming more urgent to diversify the supply chain, as China continues to control a large portion of critical minerals that are vital for industries such as electric vehicles, robotics, and national defense. Reporting by Nichiket in Bengaluru, editing by Shailesh Kumar.
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Argentine Treasury burns dollars to defend the peso, as US aid talks loom
The Argentine Treasury is quickly depleting its dollars reserves to defend the Peso. This has strained financial markets Wednesday, as funds from an agricultural exporters' special agreement are running low just weeks before midterm election. According to traders, the Treasury (under the Economy Ministry) has sold about $2 billion over the past few sessions in order to stabilize the peso. The ministry doesn't report publicly its market activities. The Treasury's holdings of hard currency have been rapidly depleted by the interventions. Portfolio Personal Inversiones reported that dollar deposits at the central banks have fallen from $1.44 billion on Friday to only $680 million. This means the intervention capacity is limited to "a few days" at this pace. According to Wise Capital, the Treasury has sold over three quarters of the hard currencies it raised through the export scheme. The government announced that it would be implementing a new plan for the end of last month. Export taxes suspended On grains and their products. In just a few short days, traders had committed to sell $7 billion of crops to China, mostly soybeans. The deal brought in a lot of cash, but it has also fueled tensions between Washington and Beijing, since U.S. Farmers are locked out of the Chinese Market due to a tariff dispute. Pressure is increasing ahead of Argentina’s legislative elections, which will take place on October 26. The libertarian president Javier Milei’s administration will be put to the test. Luis Caputo, the Economy Minister in Washington, is negotiating with a potential agreement to calm the markets. Currency swap of $20 billion deal. Deal. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF The fund works closely with the U.S.A., World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank in order to develop an assistance package for Argentina. The wholesale peso remained at 1,430 dollars per peso on Wednesday. However, the parallel rate for sending money abroad rose to 1,556 dollars per greenback. This increased the gap in exchange rates to almost 9%. Most economists agree that the current strategy of intervention is only a temporary solution until the elections. After the elections, a new and more liberal foreign exchange regime is expected, but its implementation will depend on the results of those elections and whether or not they are backed financially by the United States. On asset markets, the average price of sovereign bonds fell by 1%. The S&P Merval index, on the other hand, reversed its early losses and closed up 1.42 percent. Aluar shares jumped by 2.93% following the announcement of the government. Temporarily suspended Tariffs on metal exports. Walter Bianchi, Buenos Aires. Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, New York. Editing by Margueritachoy and David Gregorio.
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The EU Parliament is planning to further reduce the sustainability law
According to lawmakers and officials, the majority of the European Parliament's member groups reached an agreement late Wednesday night to further cut the EU's Corporate Sustainability Law. Last year, the European Union adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which requires companies to address human rights and environment issues in their supply chains or face fines up to 5% of their global turnover. After a backlash from Germany, France, the United States, Qatar and Exxon Mobil, Brussels is now working to simplify the rules. Jorgen Warborn is the EPP member leading the negotiations. He said that a key change would be to limit the application of the rules to companies with at least 5,000 employees and a turnover of 1.5 billion euros ($1.74 trillion). CSDDD currently covers companies with 1,000 employees or more and above 450 millions euros in turnover. Warborn stated, "I am focused on ensuring that we bring Europe back to growth so that we can create more jobs and long-term prosperity." Brussels has said that changes are necessary to prevent companies from being overburdened with reporting requirements. The law is due to come into effect in 2027. However, campaigners and companies have warned that the EU could undermine corporate accountability. Initially, the socialist lawmakers were against the plan, but they agreed on Wednesday after the EPP said it would strike a deal instead with far-right legislators and weaken law even further. A spokesperson for the Socialists & Democrats said, "This compromise isn't our preferred option, but the alternative would have been a worse EPP deal with the extreme right." In response, Dutch Socialist legislator Lara Wolters announced that she had resigned from her position as the group's chief negotiator. Un official of the liberal Renew party confirmed that it also supported the agreement. The three groups of legislators hold the majority of seats at the EU Parliament. The EU Parliament will vote later this month on the agreement, before the EU negotiates the final changes to law. $1 = 0.8601 Euros (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett)
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Dolly Parton: 'I'm not dead yet', after her sister raised alarm
Dolly Parton reassured fans on Wednesday about her health after her sister's comments fueled concerns that the Grammy-winning country singer was near death. Parton, aged 79, captioned an Instagram video with "I ain’t dead yet." Do I look sick to You? The "9 to 5" singer smiled as she said, "I'm working really hard here." She was on a set filming commercials at the Grand Ole Opry. She wore a black top and black fringed pants with a red blouse. Parton announced recently that she would be postponing her Las Vegas shows due to unspecified health concerns. Freida, Parton's sister, posted on social media this week that she had "prayed all night" for the singer. Later, she said that "she didn't mean for anyone to be scared or sound so serious." Parton admitted in the video that she neglected her health while her husband Carl Dean was ill and died, as Parton explained. She said she was working with doctors on some issues. "I want to let you know that I am OK." She said that she had some minor problems, but nothing major, and added, "I am not dying." Parton, a Grammy Award-winning singer, has appeared in films such as "Steel Magnolias," "The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas," and others. In November, she will receive an honorary Oscar.
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Sport Positive Awards for Real Betis, FIS and Liverpool
Sport Positive Awards were announced at a two-day summit on sports sustainability. The winners included Premier League champions Liverpool, and Real Betis of Spain. Real Betis won the Best Campaign Award for its project Sin Azul No Hay Verde, which is a campaign that says "Without Blue There Is No Green". The winners of 12 categories have been announced at the Sport Positive Summit, a two-day event in London in collaboration with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the International Olympic Committee. Claire Poole, founder of Sport Positive, said: "These winners are a great example of what is possible when sport becomes a force for positive change." As climate impacts increase, their bold actions, innovation, leadership, and are not only protecting sport's future, but also delivering a positive outcome for communities and planet. Over 500 leaders of the sport industry from the biggest events, franchises and NGOs in the world gathered for a discussion on how to make the industry more sustainable and environmentally-friendly. Climate change is affecting sport more and more. This year's FIFA Club World Cup was impacted by intense heat and thunderstorms in the United States, and the Wimbledon Tennis Championships experienced their hottest opening day ever. The warming climate is also threatening to close traditional Alpine ski resorts, while Thomas Bach, former IOC President, said that only 10 countries may be able to host a Winter Olympics in 2040. The International Ski and Snowboard Federation, in partnership with Green Producers Club developed a CO2 calculator designed to assist snow sports stakeholders measure and manage greenhouse gas emissions. This tool won the category award for Inspired Innovation at this year's Sport Positive. Susanna Siff, Director of Sustainability at FIS, stated that the tool is a living one, constantly evolving and improving based on feedback from users. "We didn't simply win the award, but we also developed a tool that can be adapted to better serve our community and reduce carbon emissions." Red Way, Liverpool's ESG (environmental, social and governance) strategy launched in 2021 has helped to increase match-day recycle from 20% up to 90% and reduce carbon emissions by 15 percent. Real Betis’s Sin Azul No Hay Verde, part of LaLiga’s Forever Green Initiative, has raised public awareness of an invasive Asian alga along the Andalusian coastline -- a direct result of climate change. The campaign was centered around the release a special edition football shirt that incorporates textile fibres from algae. Sport Positive said that Real Betis had demonstrated the power of sport to promote environmental responsibility by integrating sustainability in the areas of brand identity, merchandising and community engagement. The other Sport Positive award recipients included Cricket for Climate (a collaborative movement founded and led by Australian Test Captain Pat Cummins); Kicking for Nature (a Brazilian non profit Taekwondo program promoting environmental responsibility); and Logan Waddle who received the Trailblazer Award for his sustainability initiatives in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway as well as across the INDYCAR series of the United States. The Biodiversity Award went to the Ulster GAA Sporting Nature Project, which helped over 30 community clubs create wildlife habitat in Northern Ireland. This included planting trees and wildflower meadows.
Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer.
Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users.
Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome."
Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported.
The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal.
Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand.
It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold.
It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal.
This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years.
The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed.
CHINA SQUEEZE
CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports.
Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers.
Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information.
Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary.
Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market.
Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful.
'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY
The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions.
Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data.
The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs.
Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members.
According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency.
S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility.
CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget.
Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027.
Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail.
Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection.
CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets.
The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide.
"Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals.
The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
(source: Reuters)