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Overnight, Russian attacks in Ukraine kill one and injure over 30 people, say officials
Overnight, Russia launched drones, airstrikes, and'shelling' at Ukraine, targeting cities like Odesa, in the south, and Dnipro, in the southeast. One person was killed and more than 30 others were injured, Ukrainian officials reported on Monday. Serhiy Lysak said that drones had hit residential buildings as well as a school, and a kindergarten, in Odesa's major Black Sea port. He added that a boy aged 11 and a man aged 59 were both injured. Oleksandr Hanszha, regional governor of the region, said that Russia had launched a separate missile attack on Dnipro, in the south-east of Ukraine. The attack injured 18 people, including two children. Ivan Fedorov added on Telegram that three people had been injured in the Zaporizhzhia region's southeastern area following the attacks overnight. Oleksandr Prokudin, regional governor of Kherson region, said that one person was killed and nine injured in an attack on the southern region. Interfax, citing Russia's defence ministry, reported that drones had been shot down in Russia overnight, over areas such as Rostov and Belgorod, located in the south. Officials?said that at least four people died this weekend, three of them in the Moscow area, after Ukraine launched the biggest overnight drone attack on the Russian capital in more than a year. It was impossible to independently verify the battlefield reports. Both sides deny deliberately targeting civilians. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar, Clarence Fernandez, and Jekaterina Glubkova from Tokyo)
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Australia's Santos achieves first oil at Alaska project
Santos, Australia’s No.2 oil &?gas producer said on Monday that it had?reached first oil in its Pikka project, located in Alaska, U.S.A. Shares of the Adelaide-headquartered company rose as much as 3.1% to A$8.12, their highest ?since April 13, while the broader S&P/ASX 200 benchmark index ?was down 1.4% by 0450 GMT. Stocks of the Adelaide-based company rose as much as 3.1% to A$8.12, their highest level?since April 13, while the broader S&P/ASX 200 benchmark index?was down 1.4% by 0450 GMT. Craig Sidney is a senior investment advisor at Shaw and Partners. He said, "This announcement is positive in light of the?strong oil price and?increasing production outlook". Santos stated that the Pikka project will reach a plateau of gross production of 80,000 barrels per day by?the third fiscal quarter 2026. The first revenue is expected two to three month after?first oil. Sidney stated that the increase in production is meaningful and significant. Santos, the operator of Pikka?, holds 51% while its partner Repsol has the remaining 49%. The company stayed true to its annual production and sales forecasts last month despite a temporary outage at a facility for gas and weather-related disruptions that affected the first-quarter output. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Subhranshu Sahu, and Nikita Marie Jino in Bengaluru)
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Indian shares slump with Asian markets as US-Iran standoff continues
The Indian stock market fell and the rupee hit a new record low on Monday morning as oil prices rose after a drone strike?on an?assault?on a nuclear?plant?in the United Arab Emirates?intensified the tensions in Middle East. The mood was further dampened by U.S. president Donald Trump's warning that "the time is running out" for Iran as the Middle East conflict appears to be stalling. As of 10:05 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index fell 1.26%, to?23.347.2. The BSE Sensex dropped 1.20%, to 74.335.62. 15?of 16 major sectors fell. Small-caps and midcaps both lost 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively. The rupee fell to a record low after higher oil prices pushed global bond yields sky high. Brent crude oil rose to $112 per barrel, the highest price in two weeks. Other Asian markets declined 0.8%. Drone attacks in the Middle East are driving up oil prices, according to G. Chokkalingam. He is the founder and head researcher at Equinomics. "High crude oil prices and the widening trade deficit that results are placing significant pressure on the rupee. This, in turn is fueling the continued outflow of foreign capital and weighing down on domestic equity. The foreign portfolio investor has sold Indian stocks valued at $23.52 billion so far this fiscal year, surpassing the previous record of?2025. HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries, two heavyweights in the financial sector, lost 1,4% and 1% respectively. Tata Steel fell 5% after the steelmaker posted a smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter ?profit. Power Grid's shares fell 4.1%, despite its electric power transmission company reporting a profit increase of nearly 10% for the March quarter. Motilal attributed the growth in profit to a deferred tax of 52.8 billion rupees and said revenue and operating profits missed its estimates. Gland Pharma, which bucked the trend and jumped by 13.4% following its 97% increase in net profit for the March quarter, was the only company to do so.
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MORNING BID - Bonds taste the destruction of demand for oil
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. There's a limit on 'wishful thinking. The markets had assumed that the U.S. would?see sense and reach a deal with Iran at any time. Tehran still seems to favor?attack drones and President Trump tweets in ALL CAPS. Investors have realised that the Strait of?Hormuz won't be opening anytime soon. There are still some ships passing through but not as many as the average pre-war of 136 per day. Global inventories are also steadily shrinking. Analysts estimate that 1 billion barrels will be lost by May at current levels. Demand destruction will be needed to bring the market back into balance, which means higher prices. Brent is now back above $111.00, and the contract for September has reached $100. This is bad news for global inflation, but it's also perfect timing for summer driving season. It has already taken a toll on Chinese economy activity. Retail sales in April rose by just 0.2%, well below the expected 2.0%, and industrial output was disappointing. Bonds are continuing their decline as the 10-year Treasury yields, at 4.631% and 5.159% respectively, have reached their highest levels since February 2025. The increase in borrowing costs will add to Washington's already large budget deficit. Inflation and repayment worries are now added to the list of concerns. The current administration is not showing any intention to reduce debt. Instead, they are arguing for $1.5 trillion in defence spending, and spending a billion dollars on a new ballroom, as well as who knows how many millions on a victory arch. When G7 finance minsters and central banks meet today in Paris, war, oil, inflation rates, and deficits are all on the menu. Kevin Warsh will have to balance Trump's desire for low rates with the outlook for inflation. Higher yields will also increase the discount rate on future corporate earnings. This could put pressure on already stretched equity valuations. Analysts at Citi warn that while?earnings are generally?upbeat?, the improvement is largely due to windfalls such as tariff repayments. The companies are the ones who get the money and not the people who paid for it. Citi estimates that only 20 stocks accounted for almost all of the earnings surprise. If AI and energy are excluded, S&P 500 estimates for earnings in 2027 were flat. This sets up nicely for AI-diva Nvidia's Wednesday, where expectations are high. Street?calls for revenue of $78.5 billion, an 80% increase from a year ago, and adjusted earnings between $1.75 and $1.78. But fans are hoping for more. The stock fell after the bell, despite the fact that the company had beaten expectations. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact France hosts the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting in Paris
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India restricts the import of most silver to reduce import bills and support rupee
India has curbed the imports of silver in nearly all forms, with immediate effect. The government order was issued on Saturday. India, the world's largest consumer of this metal, is trying to reduce shipments to ease the pressure on the rupee. The restrictions are expected to result in a reduction of silver imports, and a tightening of domestic supplies. This could potentially increase premiums on the local market. India's lower demand, which imports more than 80% its total consumption, could have an impact on global prices. The order stated that India had placed imports of 99.9% pure silver bars and other semi-manufactured silver forms under the'restricted category' with immediate effect. In the past fiscal year, silver imports from both categories totaled more than 90%. This move will tighten the supply of silver on the local market and reduce imports, said Chirag Thakkar. He is chief executive officer at Amrapali Group Gujarat. "Silver has been trading at a discounted price since the government increased import duties. It is expected to trade at a premium rate in the next few weeks." This week, the South Asian nation raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% as part of its efforts to reduce overseas purchases and to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves caused by rising oil prices. India spent $12 billion in total on silver imports during the fiscal year 2025/26 that ended in March. This is a record amount compared to $4.8 billion just a year earlier. Silver imports in April jumped by 157% compared to a year ago, reaching $411 million, according to data from the trade ministry. Silver is used for jewellery, coins and bars in India, as well as industrial applications from solar energy to electronic devices. Silver ETFs have seen record-high inflows. India imports silver from the United Arab Emirates, Britain and China. A Mumbai-based bullion seller with a private banking firm said, "It seems the government will allow limited imports of silver for 'industrial use' while discouraging investment products for the short term." Reporting by Rajendra Jhadhav in Mumbai, and Anusha S Shah in Bengaluru. Editing by Louise Heavens & Joe Bavier
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China's economy slowed in April, as retail sales and output fell far below expectations
China's economy slowed in April, as retail sales and industrial output?growth fell short of expectations. The Asian powerhouse was also struggling with a sluggish demand and higher energy costs due to the Iran War. The 'National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS), released data on Monday, showing that the factory output increased by?4.1%?from last year. This compares to a 5.7% increase in March, and a poll predicted a growth of 5.9%. This was the lowest growth rate since July 2023. Retail sales, which are a measure of consumption, grew by just 0.2% last month, down from a 1.7% increase in March. This is the lowest gain since December 2022. These figures were also far below the forecast of a 2% rise. The household consumption remains?fragile. Domestic car sales fell 21.6% from a year ago in April, the seventh consecutive month of decline. Fixed-asset investments?decreased 1.6% in the four-month period of 2026 compared to a 1.7% increase?in January-March. The drop in the official purchasing managers' index for construction and the heavy rains in southern China are some of the factors that have slowed investment growth. Early signs of China's first quarter momentum were evident in April. Beijing's target for the full year is a range of 4.5% to 5.00%. Analysts warn that the economy is still recovering unevenly as industrial production continues to exceed domestic demand. The Middle East conflict has exposed the economy to external risk at a time when domestic consumption is fragile. In April, China's property investments contracted by a greater amount than in the previous year. Exports that were better than expected and China's fuel price controls at home have helped to weather the energy shock. However, higher input costs could squeeze manufacturers' margins further and hurt household spending in the event the conflict continues. Top Chinese leaders pledged to strengthen the country's security in energy, to accelerate its technological?self sufficiency and to seek greater control over supply chains as a response to external shocks. The Politburo reiterated China's fiscal policy as "proactive", and its monetary policy as "appropriately lax". This was in line with the previous meeting and suggested that no additional stimulus plans were imminent. Reporting by Ethan Wang and Joe Cash Editing by Shri Navaratnam
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White House: China has agreed with US concerns about rare earth shortages
The White House said on Sunday that China will address U.S. concern about a'shortage of certain specialty rare Earths due to?Beijing’s export controls. China's export controls on rare earths, introduced in April 2025 as a retaliation to President Donald Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs, continue to restrict the exports of some rare earths. This is despite an agreement last October that China agreed to let shipments flow freely. Beijing's 'grip' has been most tightened on specialty?rare Earths like yttrium and scandium. Both are used in defence, chipmaking, aerospace, and other industries. It read: "China will address U.S. concern regarding supply chain shortages of rare earths, and other 'critical minerals', such as yttrium scandium neodymium and indium." The summary released by the Ministry of Commerce of China on Saturday did not mention rare earths. The factsheet also stated that Beijing would address U.S. concerns about China's export limitations on rare?earth?processing equipment and technology. China refines 90% of all rare earths in the world and has dominated this industry for decades. Its technology and expertise are tightly guarded, and foreign companies cannot access them.
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Asia shares slip, oil prices pile pressure on bonds
Asia share markets fell on Monday, as new drone attacks in Gulf drove up oil prices and bond yields. Meanwhile, the AI boom will be tested this week by the earnings of tech-diva Nvidia. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones as U.S. president Donald Trump warned that Iran must "act fast" to reach an agreement. The Strait of Hormuz, which used to transport 20% of world oil trade, is still closed to all but the smallest of ships as Tehran attempts to formalise control of this waterway. Capital Economics analysts warned that the closure was draining oil stocks worldwide fast. "Inventories may reach critical levels before the end of June, which could lead to Brent reaching $130-140pb or even higher." If the strait closes by year's end and oil remains around $150pb in 2027, this would drive inflation near 10% in UK and Euro zone, sending rates back to recent peaks, and lead to a global recession. Brent crude was up 1.2% to $110.63 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 1.0% to $106.42 per barrel. G7 Finance Ministers meet in Paris to discuss the Strait?Hormuz, and crucial raw material supplies. Global bond markets were hammered by fears that energy costs will remain high, and therefore continue to drive inflation. The yields on U.S. 10-year notes are up to 4.584% after a surge of 23 basis points in the last week. 30-year bonds have risen 18 basis points. Investors feared that central banks around the world would tighten up to stop an inflationary spiral. A hike by the Federal Reserve this year is seen as a 50% chance. The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting were released on Wednesday. They should show how much pressure was put on the committee to adopt a neutral position and move away from a bias towards easing. Japan's Nikkei index eased by 0.4% after falling 2% in the previous week, though this was still from records highs. South Korean stocks dropped 2.1% as the hot market cools a bit after semiconductor demand drove it to record highs. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6%. China's stock markets reached their highest level in over four years last Thursday, but they will need to deal with data on April retail and industrial output in the later session. AI, RETAIL EARNINGS TO TEST FOR THE BULL RUN S&P futures dropped 0.4%, while Nasdaq Futures lost 0.5%. Analysts at Citi note that while Wall Street was boosted by positive earnings, half of it came from special items like tariff add-backs or asset markups. The gains in both profits and overall indexes are also closely correlated. In a note, Scott Chronert, an analyst at?Chronert & Co. wrote: "We identified 20 stocks that contributed to the majority of index earning upside." "Forward Guidance increases also demonstrate a similar focus." He added that "Broadening" is necessary for indexes to move upwards. This will require a clearer view of the Iran conflict's winding down. Earnings from Nvidia, the world's largest company and most valuable in terms of market value, are due to be released on Wednesday. Expectations for this company are high. Nvidia's shares have risen 36% from the low of March, while the Philadelphia SE?semiconductor Index has soared 60%. This is due to the fervent demand for chips, as tech companies invest massively in AI-related infrastructure. This week, Walmart will release a number of retail results that will give a glimpse into the consumer's reaction to high energy costs. The greenback has been the most liquid currency in the forex market because of risk aversion. The United States? The?U.S. The euro was at $1.1620 after losing?1.4% in the last week. The pound sank to $1.3318 after a 2.3% drop last week, as political instabilities added to the already high pressure on gilt markets. The dollar remained steady against the yen, at 158.64. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented another speculative attack on the 160.00 chart. Gold was unchanged at $4,540 per ounce on the commodity markets. It has received little support as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
As Asia and Europe compete for supplies, US crude prices have reached record highs.
Industry sources say that spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude are at all-time highs due to the fierce competition for oil supply between Asian and European refiners. This is in response to Middle Eastern oil flow disruptions caused by the Iran War.
Europe is the biggest importer of U.S. oil, but the competition has increased as Asian buyers are searching for supplies from the Americas and Africa to Europe to replace Middle Eastern crude that cannot move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources and analysts say that the increase in crude oil prices has increased costs for refiners and led to a 'widening of losses' on both continents. This puts severe pressure on firms, including state-owned companies, which are required by governments to continue producing fuel for their national security.
In a note from April 3, Paola Rodriguez Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst, said that Asian refiners are aggressively bidding for "every barrel" in the Atlantic Basin, because they have been cut off from Middle Eastern supplies.
'EVERY DAY THERE'S A NEW ?PRICE'
The premiums on WTI Midland crude for delivery to North Asia by very large crude carriers in July ranged from $30 to $40 per barrel, depending on the benchmark, traders reported.
One trader put the premium at 34 dollars a barril over Dubai quotes, while another said it was $30 above Brent dated. Two other traders said that offers were closer to $40 a barron above the August ICE Brent base.
These levels are higher than the premiums paid by Japanese refiners, including Taiyo Oil, for WTI crude in late March or early April.
One of the traders stated that "every day, there is a new price", adding that Asian refiners suffer severe losses from the premiums.
One trader suggested that refiners should reduce crude runs in order to buy?products, if any?are available.
The spot premiums increased after the WTI monthly spread reached its largest backwardation Thursday. Backwardation is when the current price of a product is higher than that in future months.
The demand for U.S. Gulf Coast tankers has also increased due to the wider discounts offered on U.S. Crude Oil compared with the global benchmark Brent. This has reduced vessel availability and pushed up freight rates.
On Thursday, the bids for WTI Midland delivered to Europe reached a record high of nearly $15 per barrel compared to Brent dated.
According to Rodriguez-Masiu, "At the current physical differentials as well as freight rates, European refiners who buy spot crude cannot make any money by running these barrels through their system."
(source: Reuters)