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Waller calms bond markets as Asian stocks climb ahead of US employment data

Asian shares rose Friday, as investors welcomed a "global rally" before the release of crucial U.S. employment data. Bonds also found relief after a Federal Reserve official calmed fears about rate hikes and drove down the dollar.

The retreat of the dollar 'turbocharged' a rally for the yen. It has gained 2.6% in this week to trade at 155.7 per dollar. This puts it within striking range of the 155.2 mark reached by Tokyo and Washington after their joint intervention in late July.

Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, said in remarks at a NEXT Newsmaker Event that recent data showed some signs of deflation. If future reports confirmed this trend, he'd prefer to hold rates steady during the policy meeting next month.

Futures markets lowered the probability of a rate increase this month from 63% to 50% just a day earlier. These expectations had risen in recent sessions, as a global bond crisis pushed long-dated yields up to multi-year levels, fueled by fears over persistent inflation, soaring government debt, and geopolitical tensions.

Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a report that Waller is fighting back against Warsh's argument that there are few signs that inflation is underlying has decreased.

"We are confident that Chair Warsh can deliver a raise if he advocates it. Without his advocacy, Governor Waller’s speech confirms that we believe the bar is high for data to convince the majority of data-dependent people to hike this coming month.

The MSCI broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which tracks Wall Street's gains, rose 1% in Asia. However, this was not enough to offset the earlier losses, as the index fell 0.4% last week.

The Nikkei 225 index of Japan gained 0.8%, but fell 2.7% in the past week. Chinese blue-chips rose 1%, and South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.1%.

The Wall Street and EURO STOXX futures were both flat, as traders awaited the U.S. August payrolls report due later that day. The forecasts predict a gain of 56,000 new jobs following a shocking drop of 23,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.

The U.S. data released overnight revealed that the service sector's activity picked up last month, with prices paid reaching a record high. Fed's "Beige Book", a survey of economic activity, also indicated that it had increased in recent weeks.

BONDS GET ?SOME RELIEF

The yield curve rose on the back of fading concerns about imminent rate hikes. Treasuries rallied after Waller's dovish remarks. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds held steady at 4.3381% after dropping 5 basis points over night to move away a peak of 4.4102% that was reached 20 months ago.

The 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.7620% after dropping 3 basis points over night, and the 30-year yield was at 5.2433% following a 2 basis point drop overnight.

Investors in bonds with longer maturities remain cautious about inflation risk, as there are few signs of progress being made between the U.S.A. and Iran on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 7% to $95.52 per barrel this week, a six-week high.

After a 0.6% drop overnight, the dollar was trading at 98.96 versus its major counterparts. It is expected to drop by 0.7% on a weekly basis.

Investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, which helped boost the yen's gains. Markets now indicate a 75% probability of a September move, while a hike in October is fully priced in. This raises the possibility?of a bigger increase or back-toback tightening.

Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said: "While we cannot rule out another round or price check, or intervention, this could also be prepositioning -- either official or speculative, in anticipation of a weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow night and a BOJ meeting that may be hawkish in a week."

Gold held steady at $4,470 per ounce on the commodity markets after a 2% increase overnight. The week was set to finish little changed.

(source: Reuters)