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Oil prices fall and global stocks rise after Iran peace deal report

After a report that the White House was close to a final agreement on a memorandum ending the war with Iran and the momentum in AI-driven trading accelerated, the stock market soared.

Axios, a news outlet, reported that the U.S. expects Iran to respond on key issues in the next 48-hours. On Wednesday, a Pakistani source who is involved in peace efforts confirmed that the report was true.

Brent crude, the benchmark global oil price, fell 10.6% to $98.20 a barrel, its lowest level in two weeks.

Axios reported that both sides would lift restrictions on transiting the waterway.

STOXX 600 Index in Europe extended gains, and ended the day with a 2.6% gain after gaining 0.7% the previous day. MSCI's All-Country World Index rose 0.9%, setting a new record.

Futures for U.S. S&P 500 increased 0.9% a day after index rose 0.8%, driving the index to its latest record high. This was driven by strong earnings of companies and excitement over artificial intelligence.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "A pretty puny move on those stories. It's almost like the market is now in a 'buy-everything' mode."

He said that it was difficult to predict how close we were to a final deal. Market participants are not going to wait for confirmation of positive news, but are now essentially front-running an outcome that is positive.

The U.S. Dollar, which was a safe-haven currency during the Iran War, fell 0.55% versus its major counterparts, indicating investor hope for a potential deal.

As traders reduced their bets about central bank rate increases, the yields on government debt fell with oil prices.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 7 basis points, to 4.35%.

Although the stock market has risen sharply, turmoil in the energy and bond markets may weigh on global growth. Oil prices are 35% higher now than when the conflict started in late February. 10-year Treasury yields have also risen by around 40 basis points.

Analysts have also warned that a deal for peace is not certain.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a senior analyst with Swissquote. He said that "the probability of disappointment looms" and suggested that some of the gains might be reversed.

AI RALLY BUOSTS GLOBAL??STOCKS

The broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 3.2%.

Samsung Electronics soared by 14% and surpassed Berkshire Hathaway in market value.

Rushil Khanna is the head of equity investments in Asia for Ostrum, a Natixis Investment Managers affiliate. He said: "Due the capex spending we see from (AI hyperscalers) in the U.S. the earnings growth trajectory in Asia for sectors like semiconductors, tech, industrials, and materials exceeds anything that I have seen in a long time."

Shares of chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices in the U.S. jumped by?16% during extended trading on Tuesday after the company announced second-quarter revenue that was above Wall Street's expectations. This helped drive AI enthusiasm across markets.

The yen also strengthened on other foreign exchange markets. It gained as much as 1.8%, to 155, against the dollar, as traders continued to watch for new intervention from authorities in Tokyo, in support of this beleaguered currency. Harry Robertson reported from London, and Gregor Stuart Hunter from Singapore. Thomas Derpinghaus edited the story with Kirsty Donovan, Joe Bavier and Thomas Derpinghaus.

(source: Reuters)