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Stocks and currencies are on tenterhooks before Trump's address on Iran War

The dollar weakened and oil fell on Thursday, as investors held their collective breath in anticipation of Donald Trump's speech that could signal the end of war in the Middle East?and increase risk appetite.

After a brutal month in March, when oil prices spiked and sent risk assets into a tailspin, the prospect of an end to the?month-long 'U.S.-Israel?war against Iran? has lifted global shares. The dollar is now off its recent highs.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan, which measures all shares in the region, was slightly higher at opening after recording its largest one-day gain since November 2022. Japan's Nikkei is poised to have a good start.

Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would be "out" of Iran "pretty quickly", and that they could return "for spot hits" if necessary. This was ahead of his planned primetime address at 1100 GMT?on?Thursday.

Trump and his top officials offered several timelines to end the war. He said that the U.S. military campaign against Iran could be ended within two to three week.

Analysts and investors are analyzing the speech to determine when and how the Strait of Hormuz - a major route for fuel shipping - will reopen, and ease the supply bottleneck that has affected Asian economies.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said: "A U.S. withdrawal within the next couple of weeks would remove a massive layer tension." However, this does not guarantee that energy will flow smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian response is crucial, especially if Tehran continues to use its geographic position to impose tolls and selective inspections of passing tankers or strikes on the energy infrastructures of its neighbouring nations.

Iran is using the Strait o'Hormuz as leverage. It carries about a fifth of all oil and natural gas in the world.

Worries about a slowing economy and higher energy prices also dampened sentiment in March.

Investors have flocked to the U.S. Dollar during the turmoil, but the prospect for a ceasefire this week has caused the greenback to weaken. In early trading the euro bought $1.1591, holding on to recent gains. The 'Japanese yen' was trading at 158.68 against the U.S. Dollar, a few cents away from 160. This is a crucial level for traders who fear that Tokyo could intervene. Brent front-month contract for June dropped 2.7% to $101.16 per barrel, rebounding from a session low price of $98.35. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)

(source: Reuters)