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India will continue to supply domestic fuel despite Middle East tension
Hardeep Singh Puri, India's oil minister, said that the country will take steps to protect its domestic fuel supply after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites increased the risk of Middle Eastern oil disruption and rising energy prices. Investors and energy markets were on alert after Israel's airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, fearing disruption in particular through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been threatening to close the Strait for years to exert pressure on Western countries. Puri stated on the social media platform X that "we have been closely watching the evolving geopolitical scenario in the Middle East for the past two week... We have diversified our supply in the last few years and a significant volume of our products do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz anymore." Our Oil Marketing Companies continue to receive energy from multiple routes and have enough supplies for several weeks. He said that we will do everything possible to guarantee the stability of fuel supplies to our citizens. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, imports less than half its average daily oil imports of 4.8 million barrels from the Middle East. Puri also told the local news agency ANI, that India will increase crude oil supplies if necessary. "We're in contact with all potential actors..." He said, "We all hope and expect the situation to result in calmness and de-escalation and not further escalation." India's Foreign Ministry said that earlier in the day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had received a telephone call from Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian in which he informed him about the conflict between Iran & Israel.
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India promises to secure fuel supplies amid Middle East turmoil
Hardeep Singh Puri, the oil minister of India, said that India would take steps to protect its domestic fuel supply amid heightened tensions in Middle East after U.S. attacks and Israeli strikes on Iran's nucleus sites. India, which is the third largest oil importer in the world, has been diversifying its crude import sources for the past few years to reduce its dependence on Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East provides less than half its 4.8 million barrels of oil per day average. Puri stated on the social media platform X that "we have been closely watching the evolving geopolitical scenario in the Middle East for the past two week... We have diversified our supply in the last few years and a significant volume of our products do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz anymore." Since Israel's airstrikes on Iran on June 13 investors and energy markets are on high alert, fearing disruptions to oil and natural gas flow out of the Middle East and particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has used the threat to close the Strait, which accounts for around 20% of the global oil and natural gas demand, as a means of warding off Western pressure, which is at its height after Washington's strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Our Oil Marketing Companies continue to receive energy from multiple routes. Puri stated that "we will take every step necessary to ensure the stability of fuel supplies to our citizens".
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The world awaits Iran's reaction after Trump claims US 'obliterates nuclear sites'
On Sunday, the world was waiting for Iran's reaction after Donald Trump announced that the U.S. "obliterated", Tehran's nuclear sites. The U.S. joined Israel in the largest Western military action since 1979 against the Islamic Republic. Tehran pledged to defend itself no matter what. The damage seen from space was caused by 30,000-pound bunker-buster U.S. bombs that crashed into the mountain over the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. The Iranians fired another round of missiles that caused many injuries and destroyed buildings in Tel Aviv. In an attempt to avoid a full-scale war with the U.S. Superpower, the country has yet to act on its threats to retaliate against the United States - by either targeting U.S. base or trying to choke-off global oil supplies. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister in Istanbul, said that Tehran would be considering all possible reactions. He said that Tehran would not return to diplomacy unless it had taken retaliatory measures. The U.S. has shown that they do not respect international law. He said that they only understood the language of force and threat. Trump called the strikes "a spectacular success" in his televised announcement. "Iran's nuclear enrichment plants have been totally and completely destroyed." Iran, the Middle East bully, must now find peace. He said that if they don't, future attacks will be much more powerful and easier. His administration insisted that there had not been any orders for a wider war against the hardline Shi'ite clerical regime that has ruled Iran from 1979. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said to reporters at the Pentagon that "this mission was and has never been about regime-change." "The President authorized a precision operation in order to neutralise threats to our national interest posed by Iran's nuclear program." U.S. Vice-President JD Vance stated that Washington is not at war against Iran, but rather with its nuclear program. He added that this has been delayed by a long time because of the U.S. involvement. The Iranian parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf with Oman, and shares by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Nearly a quarter of all oil transported around the globe passes through this area. Press TV in Iran said that the Supreme National Security Council would have to approve the closure of the Strait. The council is led by a member appointed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is based in Gulf of Mexico and has been tasked to keep it open. If the Gulf Strait were closed, the oil prices would skyrocket, the economy would crash and there was a high likelihood that a conflict could arise. In a Fox News Interview, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio warned Iran against retaliating for the U.S. strike, saying that such an action would be "the biggest mistake they've made." Rubio told CBS's "Face the Nation," that the United States have "other targets" they can target, but "we achieved our goal." Later, he added: "There is no military operation planned against Iran right now unless -- unless they mess about." BUNKER BUSTERS Israel has stated that its goal is to destroy Iran's nuke programme. It launched the war on Iran with a surprise strike on June 13th. Only the United States has the 30,000-pound bombs and batwing B2 aircraft that can drop them to destroy underground targets such as Iran's Fordow uranium-enrichment plant, which is built under a mountain. Satellite images taken after the attack showed damage to both the mountain and the entrances near the site. IAEA, the U.N. nuclear monitor, reported that no increase in radiation levels off-site had been reported following the U.S. attacks. According to a senior Iranian source, the vast majority of highly enriched uranium in Fordow was moved before the attack. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said that while it is obvious that U.S. aircraft have hit the Fordow nuclear site, it's not possible to estimate the damage underground yet. Iranians who were contacted by expressed their fears at the prospect that a larger war would involve the United States. "Our future looks bleak." "It's like being in a horror film," Bita, a 36-year-old teacher from Kashan, central city, said, before the phone was cut. Residents have fled to the countryside from Tehran, a city with ten million residents, to escape Israeli bombing. Iranian authorities claim that over 400 people, mostly civilians, have died since Israel began its attacks. Iran launched missiles at Israel in the last nine days. This is the first time that the projectiles penetrated Israel’s defenses. The elite Revolutionary Guards claimed to have fired 40 missiles in the latest round of fire at Israel overnight. On Sunday, air raid sirens were heard in most of Israel, sending millions to their safe rooms. Aviad Chernovsky (40) of Tel Aviv emerged from his bomb shelter only to discover that the house he lived in had been completely destroyed by a direct strike. "It is not easy for us to live in Israel right now, but we are strong." He said, "We know we will win." Israel has killed a large number of Iran's senior military leaders in the nine days since it began its war. It targeted residential buildings and bases where they slept. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, has openly spoken of the possibility to continue until the Islamic Republic’s clerical leaders are overthrown. He denied that this was his main objective. Trump oscillated between offering to end this war through diplomacy and joining it. At one point, he even publicly mused about the death of Iran's supreme ruler. It is his biggest foreign policy bet of his career that he decided to fight. Netanyahu congratulated Trump on a "bold decision". Yair Lapid, the Israeli opposition leader, praised Trump as well. He said that now the world is a safer place.
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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks reached record highs after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuke sites, which investors believe will likely prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon anytime soon. The broad Tel Aviv 125 closed 1.8% higher. This brings the gains in the last week to almost 8%, while the blue-chip TA-35 rose 1.5%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. But for over a week now, the local markets have praised Israel's action in Iran. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. The shekel doesn't trade on Sunday, but has risen from $3.61 per dollar in June to $3.48 on Friday. It is up about 1% for the month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, perhaps related to the prospect closer ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." The question is to what extent the sharp gains in last week's market have already been priced in. In the initial reaction, a plausible scenario would include further increases in corporate bonds and government bonds. (Reporting and Editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.
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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks rose on Sunday for the sixth time in a row, reaching new all-time records after U.S. attacks on Iran's nucleus sites. Investors believe that this will likely stop Tehran from developing atomic weapons any time soon. In afternoon trading, the broad Tel Aviv 125 Index was up 1.3% and the blue-chip TA-35 index was up 1.2%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and has responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. Still, the local markets have been cheering Israel's action in Iran for more than one week. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. Sunday is not a trading day for the shekel, but it has risen from $3.61 to $3.48 per dollar since June 11, and is now up about 1% in one month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, possibly related the prospect of stronger ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.)
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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 per barrel when trading resumes Sunday evening, after the U.S. launched an attack on Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on an escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Ole Hansen is an analyst at Saxo Bank. He said that crude oil could open up to $4-$5 dollars higher with the possibility of some long positions being unwound. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice on the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on whether or not there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation of the conflict resulting in a declining risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second member of the parliament stated that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they saw this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for a long time. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London, Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Robert Harvey in London and Seher Dareen and Arunima in Bengaluru. Editing by Alex Lawler and Clelia Oziel. Giles Elgood.
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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 a barrel on Sunday night after the U.S. launched an attack against Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on a Middle East conflict in an escalation as Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on if there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation in conflict, resulting a diminishing risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said the country could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second parliament member said that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they viewed this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for too long. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London; editing by Alex Lawler, Clelia Oziel, and Robert Harvey.
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Three dead and dozens injured in Algeria after falling from the upper stand
The Algerian Ministry of Health announced on Sunday that three spectators were killed and over 70 injured when they fell from an upper stand in a stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. The Algerian Ministry of Health said that the Beni Messous University Hospital had received 38 injured patients, and three deaths, in a Facebook statement. "Ben Aknoun Hospital, too, received 27 injured persons, while Bab El Oued Hospital, received 16," it added. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian President, offered his condolences to those injured and wished them a quick recovery. In an earlier Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." The club is yet to make a comment about the deaths. Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling onto the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. Reporting by Chiranjit ojha, Bengaluru; Ahmad El Ghannam, Cairo; Editing and Bernadette baum.
Investors see the beginning of a tectonic move away from US markets
The global money flows are being upended by a historic trade war, the proposed European fiscal bazooka of $1.2 trillion and China's rise as the leader in the tech race. This could be a turning point, with investor capital moving away from the United States.
China released more stimulus on Tuesday and pledged to make greater efforts in order to mitigate the impact of a escalating U.S. Trade War. The likely next German government had agreed to the largest overhaul of fiscal policy since the reunification.
The U.S. trade war, which began this week, is hurting the mood both inside and outside of the world's largest economy.
Investors have bet heavily on the "U.S. exceptionalism" for the past three years. The country has been ahead of other countries in terms of economic growth, stock market prices, artificial intelligent and many other areas.
Tim Graf, State Street Global Markets' head of macro strategy in EMEA, said: "The U.S. has changed, and the world is now saying that we must adapt, as the U.S. no longer is a reliable trade partner. We have to look after our own defence needs."
A rare divergence on global stock markets has been fueled by the change in sentiment.
The S&P 500 index has fallen 1.8% in the past year. However, European shares have risen almost 9% to a new record high. Tech stocks in Hong Kong are up nearly 30%.
The euro has soared above $1.07 for the first time in four months, and many banks have backed away from their calls to drop it to parity with the dollar.
According to weekly data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investors have cut their bullish dollar bets in half since the inauguration of U.S. president Donald Trump in January.
Dario Perkins is the managing director of global macro for TS Lombard.
The aggressiveness and threat of tariffs by Trump has forced other countries to spend even more.
In his first 44 working days, Trump has completely rewritten the playbook of foreign relations that had been in place since 1945. He's also launched a trade war with his largest trading partners, and forced European leaders into a radical rethinking of how they fund security.
The U.S. economic growth is slowing down due to tariffs and trade uncertainties. Companies that are more susceptible to a slower rate of growth are beginning to show cracks.
In the past month, an index of U.S. bank stocks has dropped 8% while its European counterpart has increased 15%.
Investors are diversifying away from the U.S. markets by pouring money into Europe.
Spending Big
The dollar looks less attractive as Europe and China are poised to spend large amounts.
"We were long the dollar against euro, and we closed this position more than a week ago. Mark Dowding is chief investment officer of RBC's BlueBay Fixed Income team. The behaviour of Trump has reduced the appeal for U.S. investments in general.
The government has taken several steps to encourage spending at home after investors sold Chinese assets in the past year. As the economy slowed, and wealthy consumers closed their wallets, it took several measures to encourage domestic consumption. Many still saw China as an uninvestable country in the absence a jumbo-stimulus plan, as tensions from a real estate bubble burst that affected both companies and homeowners remained.
Lipper data shows that the almost uninterrupted outflows of China-focused funds following Trump's victory in November have reversed to some $3 billion in early February.
Megacap tech stocks are a major draw for the U.S. Stock Market. Nvidia has been a leader in the AI investment revolution, and is one of the most valuable companies on the planet.
It was not until late January that a low-cost Chinese AI model, previously unknown, made a serious impact on the AI arms race.
DeepSeek's appearance has not only challenged assumptions about AI costs and efficiency, but also revealed how far behind Western companies China was.
Hong Kong tech stocks are up 24% since January 27. A basket of U.S. megacap tech stocks is down 12%.
Yang Tingwu is vice general manager at asset manager Tongheng Investment. He said that China's stock markets are already immune to increased U.S. Tariffs, as the growing strength of China is supporting domestic assets.
Yang stated that "China's technological clout has expanded if you look at TikTok or Xiaohongshu, as well as DeepSeek."
In response to the imminent sale of a rival social media platform, American users are rapidly migrating to Xiaohongshu. This Chinese platform is known in English as RedNote.
TikTok's U.S. operations.
For some, the dollar's appeal will last over time due to a resilient U.S. economic climate and higher interest rates.
Nate Thooft is the CIO of Multi-Asset Solutions & Global Equities for Manulife Investment Management. He said: "I think there's a change in play. We view it as a tactic versus a major secular shift." Recently, he upgraded his maximum underweight position on European stocks to neutral.
(source: Reuters)