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Turkey's inflation forecast for the year may be lower than expected if oil prices remain below $65
Mehmet Simsek, the Finance Minister of Turkey, said that if oil remains below $65 per barrel this year then Turkey's annual inflation rate may be between 1 and 1.6 percentage points lower than official predictions. Simsek, in response to a question about the impact of recent global trade actions on oil prices, said that persistent oil prices under $65 could mean Turkey's deficit of current account stays below 1.5%. According to the government's mid-term program, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP is expected to be 2% in this year. After a volatile Wednesday session, oil prices fell after fears of an intensifying U.S. China trade war and a possible recession overshadowed the relief that President Donald Trump had announced a pause in tariff increases against dozens countries. Analysts believe that the U.S.-China trade war leaves oil demand growth in a state of uncertainty, with a greater risk for price declines. Simsek, speaking at an OECD conference, also stated that there are downside risks for Turkish economic growth as well as budget revenue performance following recent market turmoil. "But we can assure that we will adhere to our spending commitments...we'll achieve the final result of reducing inflation. He said that the main message was to bring inflation down. The markets have been rocked ever since Trump announced last week his massive tariff plans. Analysts claim that the tariffs will be more restrictive than expected and push the global economy to a recession. (Reporting and editing by Daren Butler, Hugh Lawson, and Can Sezer)
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Fake news about the Myanmar earthquake: Making money from a disaster
Misinformation floods social media after disasters Viral posts bring in ad revenue for platforms and creators alike The 'Wild West" has very few safeguards to prevent fake news By Lin Taylor Be it viral images or fake rescue stories, these schemes take advantage of the increased fear and desire for news following any disaster or war. People should assume that there are a lot false reports out there. Darrell West is a senior technology research at Brookings Institution. According to the state media, the death toll in Myanmar's earthquake of March 28 has reached more than 3,600. Another 5,000 people were injured, and hundreds are still missing. The earthquake was the latest blow to the impoverished Southeast Asian nation of 53 million people, after a coup in 2021 that brought the military back to power and destroyed its economy following a decade of growth and tentative democracy. Digital Insight Lab is a grassroots group that runs Facebook pages to counter misinformation and hate speeches in Myanmar. It said it has seen viral posts that claimed to show the destruction of the disaster, even though they were either shot in Syria or Malaysia, and/or created by artificial intelligence. "Many reports reuse photos and videos taken from incidents that are unrelated, while others use AI-generated content in order to create false narratives," explained Windy, a research officer who went by a pseudonym. Digital experts report that misinformation and disinformation is common on social networks following disasters. This includes false videos, fake images or false narratives regarding rescue efforts. When you are misinformed, it can cause panic and delay evacuation. It can undermine your trust in emergency services. "It can be very distracting," says Jeanette Elsworth. She is the head of communications for the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. False rumours were spread after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of the United States in the past year. The government was accused of funneling federal disaster funds illegal migrants. Fraudsters uploaded videos of tsunamis from Japan and Greenland to claim that they were real-time footage taken in the disaster zone. MISSINFORMATION PAYS According to the tech policy group What To Fix, more than $20 billion will be made by 2024 from advertising revenue shared between social platforms (including YouTube) and content creators. According to founder Victoire RIO, who also spent time in Myanmar researching misinformation, content creators are using platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Tik Tok for a portion of the revenue generated by ads that appear with their posts. She said that the model encourages creators to create viral posts even if the content is false or generated by AI, as the more views they get and the more money they earn, the better. Rio stated that fraudsters were able to earn up to tens thousands of dollars in previous crises, such as the coup of 2021 in Myanmar. According to a 2021 study conducted by the fact-checking company NewsGuard and the analytics firm Comscore, misinformation websites earn $2.6 billion in digital advertising every year. According to What To fix, Meta, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms, controls more than 60% the market for social advertising. In 2024 it had over 3.1 millions creator accounts, an increase of 55% from the previous year. Rio stated that "in the current context of Myanmar, the vast majority of disinformation being circulated is motivated by financial gain." Meta has said that they remove posts which violate their policies. They work with partners to debunk any false claims, and then move the content further down in the feed so "fewer people will see it". Meta ceased its fact-checking programs in the U.S. and began managing political content. TikTok has said that it does not allow misleading or false content to be posted on its platform. It also removed incorrect posts as soon as the Myanmar earthquake occurred, and directed users to reliable sources. The company said that it had trained moderators, fact-checking partners and other staff in more than 50 languages. Rio stated that the internet shutdowns in Myanmar, which prevented information from reaching the public, also fueled misinformation. "You've got a large community of people who are using Facebook to search for information from outside Myanmar." Rio explained that these people are especially vulnerable to misinformation, as they desperately seek information. Htaike Htaike, the director of the Myanmar Internet Project which tracks the country’s internet blackouts said that the situation put lives at risk. Aung said that fake posts are frequently at the top of newsfeeds due to their clickbaity and the way social media algorithms work. This makes it more difficult for people to access quality information. It's a major hindrance to many aid efforts. At this moment, access to information is vital. Reduce Risks Eliska Pirkova is a senior policy analyst with digital rights group Access Now. She said that platforms should do more than rely on community groups for false content to be reported after it has been broadcast. "Information is always vital, but especially in times of crisis." She said that (platforms have) very high due diligence obligations. Local civil society organizations often take on the responsibility of flagging or escalating cases. They are already stretched thin because they have to deal with crises on the ground. The government has also been encouraged to take action. The United States is accelerating its dominance on the global market by removing some protective barriers. Elsworth of UNDRR said that it would take more than Big Tech or the government to combat fake news. He urged local media, religious leaders and civil society to all play a part.
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Satellite data show that copper smelting activities dropped sharply in the month of March.
Satellite surveillance data showed that global copper smelting fell dramatically in March, to its lowest reading in 2025. This was due to some smelters of the top copper refiner in the world, China, starting the maintenance season earlier than usual. Earth-i, a specialist in observational data collection, tracks smelters that represent up to 95 percent of global production. It sells this data to fund managers and traders, as well as to miners and traders. The company reported that, on average, 12.6% of the global copper smelter capacities monitored were inactive last month. This is up from just 8.8% in February. According to Earth-i, the inactivity of smelters in China has increased by 4.5 percentages points, to 9.6%. This is a country where over 40% capacity is covered by their services. Due to the increasing smelting capacities, copper concentrate is in short supply. This has caused copper smelters to shut down during April and May for maintenance. This scramble can be seen by the low level of spot-treatment and refining costs (TC/RCs). Negative TC/RCs are when smelters who are not integrated in a large mining complex nearby and source their concentrates instead from third parties, are paying for the rights to process concentrates as opposed to being paid for service. The copper smelting outside China fell as well in March. The inactivity index rose by 3.4 points to 14.9%. This was the biggest increase in a single month since May 2023. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Polina Devtt)
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The Trump tariff pause has led to a rebound in copper prices, but there is still concern about China.
After the U.S. suspended most tariffs for 90 days, copper and other base metals saw a sharp rebound on Thursday. Some investors were concerned about the rally because U.S. president Donald Trump escalated the trade war against top metals consumer China. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange LME rose 3.6%, to $8.926 per metric tonne at 0945 GMT. On Monday, volatile LME copper fell to $8,105 per ton, down from its peak of $10164.50 on March 26. This was the lowest price in over nine months. Trump has paused most of the heavy duties he just imposed, which gave a boost to the financial markets. However, he increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, up from 104%, the level at which they were introduced on Wednesday. Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer Zurich, said: "This is a typical knee-jerk financial market reaction." The relationship between China and the US is still a problem in industrial metals. We haven't seen much improvement there." He said that U.S. importers had pre-bought Chinese products in recent months, anticipating tariffs. There will therefore be a hangover. Your purchasing manager at Walmart would say that we are fully stocked. This is especially true if you don't have a clue about the direction of your own economy. So, I believe we will see a softening of demand for industrial metals in the coming months. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper gained 3.9%, reaching 75,300 yuan per ton ($10,254.66), after hitting an eight-month-low on Wednesday. The data released on Thursday showed that the Chinese economy is still in a fragile state. Consumer prices dropped for the second consecutive month in March, while deflation at factories increased. ($1 = 7.3430 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Eric Onstad;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle) ($1 = 7.3430 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
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UK energy regulator to reject penalty exemptions for National Grid and SP Energy joint venture
Ofgem, the British energy regulator, said that it did not think an electricity transmission project by National Grid Electricity Transmission & SP Energy Networks qualified to be exempted from penalties related delays. A joint venture between National Grid units and Iberdrola, a Spanish company, had asked for a 480 day exemption from penalties in relation to delays in the completion of the Eastern Green Link 1 due to global supply-chain issues and capacity shortages. The project includes subsea cables and underground cables that link Scotland with north-east England. It is an important part of Britain’s goal to decarbonise the electricity sector by 2030. Ofgem, however, said that it would consider denying the request because supply issues were not present at the time the EGL1 bid was made and the companies had taken measures to reduce the impact of these constraints. Ofgem approved a funding package of 2 billion pounds ($2.57billion) for the project back in November. The regulator stated that construction of EGL1 started in March, and now expects it to be completed in April 2029. This is 16 months behind schedule, which will result in penalties of four months for Output Delivery Incentive. Financial incentives are used to promote timely and efficient delivery of projects. If projects are not delivered on time, a fine of up to 10 percent of the total project cost can be imposed. The joint venture will be exempted from penalties for delays if approved until April 25, 2020. Currently, it is exempted until December 31, 2020. EGL1 will be providing further evidence during Ofgem’s consultation period on supply chain issues, including the impact of delivery times. Raechel Thankam Job in Bengaluru and Shashwat awasthi, editing by Janane Venkatraman, Saad sayeed.
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Kazakhstan warns that investment could shrink due to a 'global storm'
Kassym Jomart Tokayev, the Kazakh president, said that he has instructed his government urgently to complete work on a new plan to protect Central Asia from global economic shocks. Kazahstan, the only Central Asian country targeted by President Donald Trump, was subjected to additional tariffs of 27 percent earlier this month. Despite Trump's Wednesday reversal of many of the heavy duties, the countries still face a tariff of 10%. Kazakhstan is also vulnerable to falling oil prices, as the U.S. continues to put pressure on China. Kazakhstan is among the top 10 oil producing countries in the world. According to the World Bank, its economy grew 4% in 2012. Tokayev was quoted as saying, "The current events in the world could be a sign of an economic storm around the globe," by the government's press service on Thursday. "This will affect all countries including Kazakhstan." We must be prepared for any situation, and act pragmatically and confidently. According to the U.S. Trade Representative, the total goods trade between Kazakhstan & the U.S. will reach $3.4 billion by 2024. Kazakhstan's Central Bank raised its key rate of interest to 16.5% during its March meeting, while annual inflation was 10% last month. Tokayev stated that the government is working to ensure that its development agenda will stay on track, but warned of possible difficult days ahead. "There will be a battle for investment in the current climate." He was quoted saying, "We need to be very well prepared here." (Reporting and writing by Mariya Goreyeva, editing by Kate Mayberry).
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Stocks rally in relief after Trump's tariff pause
On Thursday, global shares surged after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would temporarily reduce the heavy duties he just imposed on several countries. In a shocking reversal, Trump announced on Wednesday that he would pause many of his new tariffs for 90 days following a market crash which erased trillions from global stocks. George Lagarias is the chief economist of Forvis Mazars. He said, "You have had a relief rally since realising that the market pressure resonates with President Obama." Lagarias said, "The main takeaway is that there will be limits and thresholds which he (Trump), will probably respect." Trump's reversal has pushed stocks higher around the world, beginning with a 9.5% rise in the S&P 500 index on Wednesday. The European stock market is following suit. The STOXX 600, the pan-continental index of global stocks, is up 5.3% and on course to its largest one-day increase since March 2020. The major indexes of London, Paris, and Frankfurt have risen between 4.1% to 5.6%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 8% while a broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan gained 4.4%. Wall Street futures have taken a break after the rally as investors try to understand the economic policies of the U.S. government. The world's political and financial leaders are looking with horror and not amusement at a government that prioritizes the signing of a executive order to increase the water power in shower heads on the day the bond market crashes and investors doubt the long-term credibility of the administration after it has flipped-flopped the biggest of its policies, tariffs," Martin Whetton said, Westpac's head of financial markets. Nasdaq Futures dropped 2%, while S&P500 futures declined 1.7%. In the Wednesday cash session, both indexes posted their largest daily percentage gains for more than a decade. The dollar fell around 0.9% against the Swiss franc and the yen, not sustaining its previous jump. Khoon Goh is the head of Asia Research at ANZ. He said: "I believe the initial move was simply massive short covering, and this gave the world a little breathing space. Except for China...because markets started to price the worst-case scenarios." Trump's decision to reverse the tariffs on specific countries is not final. The White House announced that a 10% blanket duty will continue to be applied to almost all U.S. imported goods. This announcement does not seem to affect existing duties on steel, aluminium and autos. He said he would also increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which came into effect Wednesday. China raised the additional duties on American goods to 84% on Wednesday and imposed restrictions against 18 U.S. firms, mostly in defense-related industries. Investors, however, have a limited view of the latest escalation in Sino-U.S. Trade tensions. They are focusing on the 90-day window Trump granted to dozens countries. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2%, while China's CSI300 blue chip index rose by 1.3%. Wong Kok Hoong is the head of Maybank's equity sales trading. The China + 1 route is still intact. "As the tariffs on the rest of world are 10% for 90 days and companies/businesses will have the time to adjust their supply chain routes." The onshore yuan is still at its lowest level since December 2007, 7.3518 dollars. The People's Bank of China set the midpoint, or the rate at which the yuan can trade within a 2% range, prior to the market opening. This is the lowest since September 11, 2023. BONDS SALE The steep drop in U.S. bond prices this week showed signs of slowing down on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped by 10 basis points to 4.2985% after reaching a high of 5.150% the previous session. Fears of fragility on the world's largest bond market were reignited by a violent U.S. Treasury sale in previous sessions. The "sprint for cash" reminiscent of the COVID era had rekindled fears. Lagarias, a Forvis Mazars analyst, said: "It is sensible to discount risk assets in the United States by a certain amount." German Bunds, the only safe haven on the bond market, were sold off Thursday. The 10-year yield rose 8 basis points to 2.659%, while the 2-year rate rose 14 basis points to 1.855%. Investors worried about the continuing growth shock caused by the worsening Sino/U.S. Trade War, drove oil prices down elsewhere. Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $63.97 a barrel while U.S. Crude dropped 2.2% to $60.95. Spot gold continued to climb, and it was up by 0.9% last at $3.109 an ounce.
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Some China producers begin maintenance due to the falling alumina prices
The falling prices are causing Chinese alumina manufacturers, who rushed to increase capacity last year after prices surged due to a shortage of bauxite as a raw material, to be squeezed. Some have shut down their capacity in April for maintenance. Alumina prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen by almost half since their December 4 record. This is due to expanded capacity of the key ingredient in aluminium production and the eased supply of bauxite. Mysteel, a provider of information, predicts that China's alumina production capacity will increase by 20% this year, or 19,8 million metric tonnes. Mysteel's data shows that 60% of the existing capacity operates at a loss, averaging around 300 yuan per ton. Research firm Aladin reported that small-scale maintenance was carried out in April to reduce alumina output by around 5% in comparison to March. This will be mainly in Shanxi province and Shandong provinces where there is insufficient bauxite locally, forcing producers to import more expensive bauxite. According to Mysteel, China's alumina production rose by 1% from March 2024. Analysts and traders say that despite the fact that alumina refineries are reliant on long-term contracts with aluminium melters, it is unlikely they will make large-scale cuts this year. Our long-term customers would find another supplier if we started maintenance to reduce production. We'd also lose our credibility, said a trader at a medium-sized alumina refining plant, who declined to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to media. Alumina prices are also being pushed down by the increased supply of bauxite. Customs data revealed that bauxite imports into China increased by 26% in the first two month of this year. Zijin Tianfeng Futures stated that the 40 million ton expansion of bauxite production planned for this year by Guinea and Australia would be more than enough to offset the 14 millions tons lost last year due Guinea Alumina Corp suspending bauxite imports.
Investors see the beginning of a tectonic move away from US markets
The global money flows are being upended by a historic trade war, the proposed European fiscal bazooka of $1.2 trillion and China's rise as the leader in the tech race. This could be a turning point, with investor capital moving away from the United States.
China released more stimulus on Tuesday and pledged to make greater efforts in order to mitigate the impact of a escalating U.S. Trade War. The likely next German government had agreed to the largest overhaul of fiscal policy since the reunification.
The U.S. trade war, which began this week, is hurting the mood both inside and outside of the world's largest economy.
Investors have bet heavily on the "U.S. exceptionalism" for the past three years. The country has been ahead of other countries in terms of economic growth, stock market prices, artificial intelligent and many other areas.
Tim Graf, State Street Global Markets' head of macro strategy in EMEA, said: "The U.S. has changed, and the world is now saying that we must adapt, as the U.S. no longer is a reliable trade partner. We have to look after our own defence needs."
A rare divergence on global stock markets has been fueled by the change in sentiment.
The S&P 500 index has fallen 1.8% in the past year. However, European shares have risen almost 9% to a new record high. Tech stocks in Hong Kong are up nearly 30%.
The euro has soared above $1.07 for the first time in four months, and many banks have backed away from their calls to drop it to parity with the dollar.
According to weekly data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investors have cut their bullish dollar bets in half since the inauguration of U.S. president Donald Trump in January.
Dario Perkins is the managing director of global macro for TS Lombard.
The aggressiveness and threat of tariffs by Trump has forced other countries to spend even more.
In his first 44 working days, Trump has completely rewritten the playbook of foreign relations that had been in place since 1945. He's also launched a trade war with his largest trading partners, and forced European leaders into a radical rethinking of how they fund security.
The U.S. economic growth is slowing down due to tariffs and trade uncertainties. Companies that are more susceptible to a slower rate of growth are beginning to show cracks.
In the past month, an index of U.S. bank stocks has dropped 8% while its European counterpart has increased 15%.
Investors are diversifying away from the U.S. markets by pouring money into Europe.
Spending Big
The dollar looks less attractive as Europe and China are poised to spend large amounts.
"We were long the dollar against euro, and we closed this position more than a week ago. Mark Dowding is chief investment officer of RBC's BlueBay Fixed Income team. The behaviour of Trump has reduced the appeal for U.S. investments in general.
The government has taken several steps to encourage spending at home after investors sold Chinese assets in the past year. As the economy slowed, and wealthy consumers closed their wallets, it took several measures to encourage domestic consumption. Many still saw China as an uninvestable country in the absence a jumbo-stimulus plan, as tensions from a real estate bubble burst that affected both companies and homeowners remained.
Lipper data shows that the almost uninterrupted outflows of China-focused funds following Trump's victory in November have reversed to some $3 billion in early February.
Megacap tech stocks are a major draw for the U.S. Stock Market. Nvidia has been a leader in the AI investment revolution, and is one of the most valuable companies on the planet.
It was not until late January that a low-cost Chinese AI model, previously unknown, made a serious impact on the AI arms race.
DeepSeek's appearance has not only challenged assumptions about AI costs and efficiency, but also revealed how far behind Western companies China was.
Hong Kong tech stocks are up 24% since January 27. A basket of U.S. megacap tech stocks is down 12%.
Yang Tingwu is vice general manager at asset manager Tongheng Investment. He said that China's stock markets are already immune to increased U.S. Tariffs, as the growing strength of China is supporting domestic assets.
Yang stated that "China's technological clout has expanded if you look at TikTok or Xiaohongshu, as well as DeepSeek."
In response to the imminent sale of a rival social media platform, American users are rapidly migrating to Xiaohongshu. This Chinese platform is known in English as RedNote.
TikTok's U.S. operations.
For some, the dollar's appeal will last over time due to a resilient U.S. economic climate and higher interest rates.
Nate Thooft is the CIO of Multi-Asset Solutions & Global Equities for Manulife Investment Management. He said: "I think there's a change in play. We view it as a tactic versus a major secular shift." Recently, he upgraded his maximum underweight position on European stocks to neutral.
(source: Reuters)