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Farm union estimates that Ukraine's 2025 corn and sunseed crops will be 14 million tons each, while the sunseed crop is expected to be around 14 million tons.

The UAC, the producers' union, said that due to extreme drought in parts of southern Ukraine and eastern Ukraine (including Kiev), sunflower production estimates for 2025 have been drastically reduced from 16 million metric tons.

UAC said, however, that weather conditions would not affect the corn crop, which could be as high as 28 million tons. In 2024, Ukraine produced 26 million tons.

"Moisture reserve in the south and eastern are extremely low. This is a negative for sunflowers which are abundant in this region. UAC reported that August will be hot and dry. These regions are expected to continue burning.

Even if the plan is to harvest between 15.5 and 16 million tons, that would be around 14 million. But even this is optimistic. "According to estimates, current volumes are estimated at around 13 million tons," it said.

Ukraine is one of the largest sunflower oil producers and exporters in the world.

APK-Inform, an analyst firm, said that it has revised its forecasts for the Ukraine sunflower oil and sunflower seed harvest in 2025 due to bad weather conditions in the southern regions.

The consultancy estimated that Ukraine's sunflower oil production could fall to 5,94 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 6,22 million tons.

Ukrainian state forecasters stated in a recent report that the sunflower yields could be among the lowest of the past 10 years in southern Ukraine, ranging between 0.5 and 1.3 tons per ha.

The forecasters stated that the average yield of sunflowers in Ukraine will not exceed 1,95 tons per hectare, compared to a first forecast (in June) of 2,31 tons. They also said the harvest could be between 10-15% less than what was forecasted in June.

UAC stated that the drought affected corn crops only partially, and continued rainfall deficits could allow for a higher harvest.

This week, the Ukrainian Economy Ministry increased its forecast of 2025 corn production to 28 million tonnes from 26 million.

Taras Vysotskiy, Deputy Economy Ministry, said that a corn harvest larger than expected of 28 million tonnes was the primary reason for the increased estimate of grain production in this year's 56 million tons.

Vysotskiy stated that the outlook for wheat crops was unchanged, at 21 million tons.

UAC estimates the 2025 wheat harvest at 20-21 million tons.

As of August 7, official data indicated that Ukrainian farmers harvested nearly 20 million tons, including 14.9 millions tons of wheat. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk Editing Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood

(source: Reuters)