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BIS: Global AI market momentum shows signs of vulnerability

Bank for International Settlements, the global central bank umbrella group, stated on Monday that the AI-linked rally which has seen world stocks soar over the past two years, is becoming more vulnerable.

BIS reported that investors were becoming "increasingly conservative" when it came to the future profitability of AI investments. This was especially true as leverage at major U.S. technology firms continues to increase.

Frank Smets is the BIS head of economics analysis. He told reporters that the AI momentum which propelled equity markets last year and contributed to global resilience has started to show signs of vulnerability.

Comments were made Friday, ahead of publication on Monday. AI-related stocks fell sharply on Monday, after heads of several top AI companies warned that it was necessary to slow down the development of technology to avoid threats to humanity.

The BIS report pointed out that geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and other factors have exacerbated the strains on the public finances.

In addition to the long-held concerns about debt sustainability, the hundreds of billions in debt AI firms issue could also be contributing to a rise in the government bond market's borrowing costs.

Smets, referring to recent pressures on bond markets, said that the problem was "related to fiscal fragility" which is accompanied by a higher level of uncertainty in the global economy.

He added, however, that "no signs" of stress were visible in the overall market and that risk appetite among investors had been "remarkably resilient" over recent months.

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The BIS, also known as the central bank of the world's central banking institutions, has issued regular warnings regarding global debt levels as well potential stock market bubbles.

Smets stated that it is uncertain whether this resilience can be maintained, particularly if the upward pressure on yields continues.

He also reiterated the warnings of BIS Chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos last week about the risks to financial stability posed by AI.

Smets stated that "we are most concerned about the rapid rise in debt and leverage in this area (AI)." "And that many of these financing transactions are opaque. They are often not included in the balance sheet. "They have a circularity to them."

The report looked at the private market funding which has poured into AI over recent years.

The aggregate borrowing of tech firms has risen from $22 billion in 2010, or 22%, to more than $1 trillion or 44% by 2025. Total outstanding loans, of all types, amount to almost $2.5 trillion.

One of its studies used AI to analyze thousands of central bank reports and speeches. The study showed that the "core inflation" metrics, which exclude energy price peaks or troughs, are cited more often and with greater variety.

The trend reflected the changing economic conditions. However, the report said that "the increasing complexity of central banks' messaging could pose challenges to effective communication with public".

(source: Reuters)