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IEA increases 2025 oil forecast following OPEC+ decision to increase output

The International Energy Agency raised its forecast on oil supply growth for this year after a decision was made by the OPEC+ group of producers to increase production. It also lowered its forecast on demand due to a lacklustre level of demand in the major economies.

In a report published monthly, the IEA, an agency that advises industrialised nations, said it expects global oil production to increase by 2.5 million barrels a day (bpd). This is up from 2.1million bpd, as previously predicted.

The Paris-based agency predicted that the world's oil demand would rise by 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. This is down from the 700,000 bpd forecast previously.

The latest data shows a lacklustre level of demand in the major economies. With consumer confidence still low, a rapid rebound seems remote, according to the IEA.

After the IEA's report was published at 8am GMT, oil prices briefly extended their losses.

According to the IEA, despite higher OPEC+ output, non-OPEC producers are expected to continue leading world supply growth in this year and next.

The IEA said that despite lowering its forecast for demand, it expects the global oil refinery runs to reach an all-time record of 85,6 million bpd by August. Reporting by Enes Tunagur Editing by Alex Lawler Bernadettebaum and Tomaszjanowski

(source: Reuters)