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IRGC officer: Iran now considers Strait of Hormuz a much larger zone
According to a'senior officer' in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Iran has expanded the definition of the Strait of Hormuz far beyond what it was before the Iran war. Fars, a news agency affiliated with the Iranian government, reported Tuesday that the strait was no longer viewed by the IRGC Navy as a small stretch of water around a few islands, but had been significantly enlarged and given a greater military significance. "In the past the Strait of Hormuz has been defined as a small area around islands like Hormuz or Hengam. But today, this view is changing," said Akbarzadeh. The Iranian authorities have not responded to an immediate request for comment. Around a fifth (or more) of the world’s?oil supply and liquefied gas passes through this strait. It is the main route to the Gulf for countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar. Akbarzadeh described the strait as "a vast operating area" stretching from Jask, in the east, to Siri Island, in the west. This is the second time that Iran has announced an expansion since its war with the U.S. The IRGC Navy published a map on May 4 showing a zone of control extending a significant a'stretch of 'the UAE Gulf of Oman coast. The area covered by the road stretched from Iran's Mount Mobarak to the UAE's Fujairah and Iran's Qeshm Island, and then westwards to the UAE's Umm 'al Quwain. The announcement made on Tuesday appears to be a broadening of this area. Fars and Tasnim reported that another 'Iranian media agency', Fars and Tasnim on Tuesday, said the strait had increased in width from 20-30 miles to 200-300 miles. Tasnim stated that the expanded zone is a "complete crescent". (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Jason Neely and Dubai newsroom)
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Kremlin claims that the Russian government has maintained economic stability, despite a downgrade in growth forecast
The Kremlin announced on Tuesday that the Russian government has taken all necessary steps to ensure economic stability, despite Moscow being forced to reduce its forecasted growth for 2026. The Russian Economy Ministry has revised its forecasts for the growth of GDP in 2026, reducing it from 2.8% to 1.4% and 2027 from 2.8% to 0.4%. Alexander Novak, Deputy prime minister, said on Tuesday that the growth rate was expected to be 2.4% by 2029. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, told reporters that Vladimir Putin is closely involved in economic issues and that Russia can "talk confidently about macroeconomic stability" despite volatility on global markets caused by a conflict in the Middle East. He said that a second meeting with government officials on the economy is expected this week. Peskov stated that "thanks to the actions being implemented by our Government, we can confidently talk about macroeconomic stability and promise plans to modestly but steadily increase economic growth rates every year." The Russian economy's $3 trillion, which has been hit by Western sanctions and the conflict in Ukraine as well as high interest rates, shrank by 0.3% during the first quarter. This is the first quarterly decline since early 2023, after the tax increases at the beginning of the year, along with deep discounts on Russian crude oil due to Western sanctions. Last year, Putin asked that the government ensure a resumption of growth in 2026. And last month, he criticized senior officials for the slowing economy and told them to find new ways to help the economy. Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said that he would not make any immediate changes in the government due to slow growth. He pointed out that the global economic environment was volatile. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov, Writing by Lucy Papachristou & Gleb Bryanski, Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Dollar, oil and gold rise as Middle East peace hopes fade
The dollar and oil prices rose on Tuesday, as the slim hope of a U.S.-Iran deal pushed gold down from its 'three-week-high'. This clouded U.S. rate expectations ahead of important inflation data. Spot gold dropped 0.8% by 0913 GMT to $4,698.22 an ounce, after reaching its highest level since April 21. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery lost 0.5% to $4,706.10. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a ceasefire agreement with Iran is "on life support". This was after Tehran refused to accept a U.S. plan to end the conflict. It also refused to change its demands which the U.S. president called "garbage". Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that rising energy prices are once again driving up U.S. bonds yields in advance of today's CPI print (consumer price index). Oil prices rose as the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, remained largely closed. The Federal Reserve may be able to get a clue from the April inflation figures, which are expected later today. Increased crude oil prices can fuel inflation and increase the likelihood of rising interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation, but high interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding investment. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate hit a new high while the dollar rose 0.4%. This made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders other currencies. According to CME Group’s?FedWatch, traders have priced in a Fed rate cut this year. Markets now see a 36% likelihood of a hike before March 2027. The markets are also closely watching Trump's two day visit to China - scheduled for Wednesday - during which he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Middle East is expected to be a major part of his agenda. Hansen said that "overall, gold remains rangebound. Support is established ahead of $4.500 while resistance is near the 50-day moving median, around $4.757." Silver spot fell by 2.4% to $84.05 an ounce. Platinum dropped 3.1% to $2,000 and palladium fell 1.6% to $1,484.23. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
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Sources: India and Russia are in advanced discussions on a critical minerals pact
Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that India and Russia have advanced 'talks' to sign a preliminary agreement on critical minerals, which would cover?exploration?,?processing?, and?technological collaboration. Sources who declined to be named as the discussions were not made public said that the deal would focus on rare earths and lithium, while the two governments will also facilitate corporate investment. They added that the agreement could be signed within two months. One of the sources stated that "we have shared with our Russian counterparts a draft agreement proposal." The Ministry of Mines in Russia, which leads the discussions, did not reply to an email requesting comment. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia and the Office of First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov did not reply to requests for comments. India wants to reduce its dependency on China for minerals, as China dominates the global market and has advanced mining technology. It also wants to secure new supplies from overseas to help it with its energy transition and infrastructure. New Delhi has signed agreements on critical minerals with Argentina, Australia, and Japan and is currently in discussions with Peru and Chile about broader bilateral agreements, which include critical minerals. India, however, has not been able to secure critical minerals overseas. It has signed a single lithium mining and exploration project agreement covering five blocks in Argentina by 2024. One of the sources stated that India might 'also revisit the Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom’s lithium exploration project for Mali, if the political climate in the West African country stabilized. In early 2014, it was reported that India had withdrawn from the Mali lithium project due to security concerns. New Delhi signed a number of agreements with countries this year, including Germany, Brazil and Canada. The aim was to "increase access to technology and partnerships". The government has identified that more than 20 minerals including lithium will be critical to its energy transition, industrial growth and infrastructure needs in 2023. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhadwaj, Kate Mayberry, Anastasia Lyrchikova; Additional reporting by Neha Aroos in Moscow)
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Australian miner Fortescue will pay $108 Million for damages to Indigenous groups' land
A court in Australia on Tuesday ordered Fortescue, a miner, to pay A$150,000,000 ($108,000,000) as compensation to an Indigenous group for the cultural damage caused by mining iron ore on their land without their consent. The decision represents 'one of the biggest ever?payouts? in Australia's recent history, brought about by native title laws that recognise Indigenous rights and interest on certain parcels. Stephen Burley, a Federal Court of Australia judge, ruled that Fortescue had caused "significant harm" to the cultural inheritance of the Yindjibarndi People of Western Australia. He concluded that the miner should pay A$150,000,000 in compensation for cultural loss, and A$100,000.000 for economic losses. Fortescue was founded by Andrew Forrest and said that it accepted the right of compensation for the Yindjibarndi. It said that Dr Andrew Forrest and Fortescue are deeply concerned about the Yindjibarndi people, as well as all First Nations?people. The Yindjibarndi People brought a claim for A$1 billion of cultural loss as well as A$800,000,000 in economic loss against the miner, and the Western Australian State Government. They claimed that they should receive a share in the profits of the mine. Fortescue and the state government both denied this claim. Fortescue claimed it would not pay more than A$8,000,000 in compensation for cultural losses and A$95.197 for economic losses. Burley stated in a summary judgement that the Yindjibarndi’s connection to their land is "deep and visceral" and that their spirit, or wirrard is destroyed when they witness the harm caused to their country by the mining. He said that the "Solomon Hub Project", Fortescue's flagship mining operation in Western Australia had denied them access to more than 135 square kilometers (52 square miles), of their land. He said the area was fenced off due to its mining infrastructure, which included open-pit mines and a rail, as well as a tailings dam and waste dumps. Mining activity has also led to the destruction of many historical sites. Burley stated that "the data indicates that 124?sites were completely destroyed and many others?more significantly affected" by the operation of the mine. All was approved in accordance with government procedures. "YNAC approved nothing."
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Sources say that Indian banks have resumed bullion imports following a month-long suspension over the 3% levy
Indian banks resumed imports of gold and silver after a hiatus that lasted more than a week by agreeing to pay the 3% customs tax which had previously prompted them to stop shipments. The return of gold imports is expected to increase the 'country's' trade deficit, and put pressure on the rupee which has been among Asia's worst performing currencies this year. Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, was concerned about the mounting pressure on the balance of payments in India and the rupee. He urged the public to refrain from buying gold for one year to preserve the foreign exchange reserves. India is the second largest gold purchaser in the world after China. This could support global prices of gold and silver, as well as help local jewellers replenish inventories. The head of a Mumbai private bank's bullion desk said, "We paid a 3% tax at the customs for clearing shipments of?gold and?silver. "Banks waited more than a week for the government to issue a decree that exempts them annually from paying the 3% IGST. As the government'suggested it wanted to limit gold imports', banks lost hope. The banks, who import the majority of India's gold refined, stopped shipments on April 1, the first day of the new fiscal year, after the customs authorities demanded the IGST. Gold-importing banks in India were exempted of the levy when India implemented the IGST regime. A government official declined to name himself as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. A government official declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak with the media. The official stated that banks have cleared 'about 9 metric tonne of gold and about 34 metric tonne of silver in May, after paying the IGST. Chirag Thakkar is the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a bullion importer. He said that while supply has improved due to bank imports but demand remains low, gold trading continues at a discount. Discounts offered by dealers in India This?week you can save up to $17 per ounce compared to the official domestic price, including 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. India's gold imports are likely to be at a 30-year low in April, with about 15 metric tonnes. This is because banks halted shipments when customs began to demand the IGST. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhardwaj, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Rajendra Jadhav)
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Orioles extend Yankees' losing streak after late-game heroics
After winning the first game of the three-game series against the New York Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles are looking to get more from the remaining two games. There may be more drama on Tuesday night. Coby 'Mayo, who hit a three-run homer in Monday's seventh inning, gave the Orioles their fourth win in 12 games. Baltimore had trailed by a score of 2-0 before the blast and hadn't recorded a single hit until that inning. New York suffered its fourth consecutive loss. The?Yankees lost for the fifth consecutive time in six matches since May began with a five game winning streak, which included a four-game rout of Baltimore. The Orioles have recovered. Mayo stated, "It seems like I have been in that position a lot since I was up here for the last three years and I haven't been able to come through as much as I would've liked," Mayo. "That was the spot where all my emotion came out when I finally did it," Mayo said. The Orioles gained a boost of confidence from the result. Ryan Weathers stymied them, but he left after a single in the seventh inning, followed by a groundout, and a walk. Brent Headrick, their reliever, was beaten by Mayo. If the Yankees lose on Tuesday, it will be their longest losing streak this season. It was a five-game skid between April 8-12. Aaron Boone, the manager of New York City said: "We have to unlock some guys." We've got some players who are struggling. As we go through this rough patch, we need to be a bit more competitive. Will Warren (4-1 with a 3.46 ERA), will be the Yankees' starter on Tuesday. He held the Orioles scoreless in 6 1/3 innings, including?one earned run, for a home victory on May 1. He struck out nine and walked one. Pete Alonso hit him with a single homer. Warren's lone appearance since then ended in a loss against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, when he gave up six runs in just four innings. In 41 and 1/3 innings, the right-hander struck out 53 while walking 11. Last year, Warren was 1-2 and had a 4.95 ERA against Baltimore. He gave up four home runs during those four matches. The Orioles have not announced their plans for Tuesday, but it is expected that left-hander Trevor Rogers (2-4, 4.75 ERA), will be back from the injured list any day. Rogers hasn’t pitched in major league baseball since April 25. Rogers is 1-1 in four career appearances against the Yankees with a 4.60 ERA. Samuel Basallo, the Baltimore catcher, was scratched?on Monday when he was supposed to be the designated batter, due to a sore knee on his left side. He was involved in a collision with the Athletics a day before, but he held on to the ball and got an out. On Monday, the Orioles moved to improve their pitching staff. They called up Josh Walker from Triple A Norfolk and sent Trey Gibson back to Norfolk. Aaron Judge, the New York Yankees' slugger, has now reached base in 27 straight games against the Orioles after hitting a double in the sixth inning of the first game of the series. Caballero was not in the starting lineup for Monday's game because of an injury to his finger sustained in Milwaukee a day before. The plan was to have him evaluated a specialist on Tuesday in New York. He was, however, used as a 'pinch runner' for the ninth inning and was caught stealing at the end of Monday's game. Boone stated, "He is as tough as it gets but he was having a hard time throwing (on Monday)." He's been a great performer on both sides of ball for us to start the season. He has been an important part of our team up to this point. Max Schuemann, New York's shortstop, took Caballero's place. Field Level Media
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FOREX Dollars rises, but not far from the pre-war levels.
The U.S. Dollar extended gains for the second consecutive session?on Tuesday. This was largely due to the sustained uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, which drove investors towards the greenback in search of a "traditional safe haven". The dollar rose sharply in March, as currencies of oil-dependent economies like?Japan?and the euro zone were heavily sold following the surge in oil prices after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback weakened after the ceasefire began on April 7. Donald Trump, who dismissed Iran's proposal Monday as "garbage," threatened to terminate it. The dollar is now close to pre-war levels. Mohit Kumar is an economist with?Jefferies. Trump is expected in Beijing to arrive on Wednesday. Iran will be one of the topics discussed between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. CRUDE OIL?PRICE SUPPORTING DOLLAR "As long the crude oil price remains high, due to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's threats to tanker traffic, the dollar will remain strong," said Thierry Witzman, global forex rates and currency strategist at Macquarie Group. He added that the impact of high oil prices on other countries' economies would be "much more harmful" than what the U.S. economy will suffer. As hopes faded for an agreement to end the war against Iran, oil prices rose by 2% on Tuesday. Wizman has also stated that the U.S. government is likely to have decided its economic blockade against Iran - the 'economic warfare' - could be more efficient than resuming the bombing campaigns. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures its value in relation to a basket major foreign currencies, rose 0.35%, reaching 98.30. The index was 97.85 in February and 100.64 at the end of March. Late last week, it fell below pre-war levels. RATE OUTLOOK IN CENTRAL FOCUS Investors also pay close attention to the monetary outlook. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates higher longer in order to combat inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, traders bet that the European Central Bank's depo rate will increase to around 2.75% from its current 2% by the end of the year. The euro dropped 0.33% to $1.1744. A survey of economists predicts that the U.S. consumer price index will show a 0.6% increase in April after a jump of?0.9% last month. The estimates ranged from 0.4% to 0.9%. The data may confirm that the Federal Reserve will likely 'keep interest rates the same in the near future. The traders have already priced in the possibility of rate reductions for the year, compared to two cuts that were expected before the Iran War broke out. YEN IS STILL IN THE INTERVENTION WATCH ARENA The Japanese yen surged suddenly during the late Asian session of Tuesday, fueling speculation about a "rate-check", which is often a prelude to currency intervention. The dollar last stood at 157.57 yens, up 0.25 percent on the day. This was after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that he has great confidence in Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to guide the central banks towards a "very effective" monetary policy. Japan's authorities are said to have spent $63.7 billion on the current round.
AI rally fails as Middle East ceasefire is put on 'life-support'
The dollar and oil rose on Tuesday as hopes for a deal to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz faded. Meanwhile, traders were waiting on U.S. Inflation figures and a rallying chip stock market cooled. U.S. president Donald Trump said that the ceasefire agreement with Iran, which had been in place for a month, was "on life-support" following Tehran's rejection of a U.S. proposal to end the conflict.
Brent crude futures rose 2% to $106.4 per barrel.
STOXX 600 in Europe was down by 1.2% during early trading. The S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. MSCI's broadest Asian share index excluding Japan dropped 0.6%. Even the seemingly unstoppable KOSPI in Seoul was affected by this'shine'. It retreated as it approached 8,000 and fell about 3.5%. This impacted other regional markets. Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, said that as the U.S. appeared to be no closer to ending their deadlock in negotiations with Iran, Brent crude prices continued on yesterday's upward trend. He said that markets are pricing in the possibility of a long-lasting disruption. 6-month Brent futures rose 2.54% yesterday to $89.50 per barrel. The markets are watching Trump's visit, which starts?on?Wednesday, closely, as they do not expect any significant progress to be made on either the Iran issue or trade.
Investors shouldn't expect to see sweeping deals. "A 'win' means no new tariffs, export controls or small symbolic deals such as agricultural orders, aircraft purchases or signals on rare Earths," said Daniel Casali. Chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners.
These may seem minor, yet stability on the margins is important.
APRIL INFLATION SPEEDS EXPECTED US DATA
The U.S. will release its inflation data on Tuesday. The headline consumer price index is expected to show a 3.7% increase year-on-year, following a rise of 3.3% a month ago.
Markets could be 'raised' by any suggestion that the Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates this year, rather than reduce them as investors expected before the war. Global bond yields are rising, led by the selloff of gilts, after Prime Minister Keir Starmer's speech on Monday did not dispel investor doubts regarding his political survival following Labour’s heavy loss in local elections.
UK gilt yields soared sharply during early trading on Tuesday. According to LSEG, the yield on 30-year bond?rose 11 basis point to 5.794%, which is the highest since 1998. The sterling fell by 0.7% to $1.352, becoming the worst performing major currency in relation to the dollar.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury rates were up by 2 basis points at 4.43%. The dollar gained 0.2% on the foreign exchange markets, rising to 157.525 yen. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, said that after a meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsukikatayama, in Tokyo, coordination between the U.S. and Japan is "constant" and "robust".
The euro fell by 0.3%, to $1.1747. The Australian dollar dropped 0.5%, to $0.7214. Australia's budget deficit is expected to be smaller than the one previously announced on Tuesday. (Jihoon Le in Seoul, with additional reporting from John Mair & Christian Schmollinger.)
(source: Reuters)