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Copper jumps to a three-week high after US-Iran ceasefire
Copper prices soared to a record high of three weeks on Wednesday, after the?U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to a?ceasefire? with Iran for two weeks, which will ease fears of an economic slowdown in the world as a result of the Middle East conflict. In open-outcry trading, the benchmark three-month copper price on?the London Metal Exchange rose 2.7% to $12650 per metric ton. It had previously risen as high as 3.6%, to $12,755.50. This was its highest level since March 18. In March, copper prices fell 7.6% due to economic concerns sparked by war in Iran. Trump stated that the?ceasefire depends on Iran's agreement to stop its blockade of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil fell by as much as 16.1% on Wednesday. The brokerage Sucden Financial said that while the ceasefire may have a short-term impact on the energy premium, it is fragile and conditional. This suggests the markets will continue to be driven by headlines rather than a "sustained risk-on background". Discount on the cash LME copper contracts to the forward three-month contract The price of metal has risen to $98 per ton, up from $84.60 on February 2, indicating that there is not a shortage. Copper stocks at LME-approved warehouses On April 7, the number of tons was 385,275, the highest level since March 2018. This is after the influx of?10,075 tonnes to New Orleans and other locations in Asia during the Easter holiday. Prices of aluminium, which spiked after metal was unable to travel its normal route through the Strait of Hormuz from Gulf producers to export markets, have fallen 0.4%, to $3,463 per ton. Late last month, Iranians attacked and damaged smelters in Bahrain and the UAE. This took the supply off the market. Iran's Mehr agency said that reports of a U.S. and Israeli attack on Arak Aluminium?plant, in central Iran, were false. In a broad relief rally, base metals rose in price. Nickel jumped by 2.3%, to $17.345, tin was up 4.3% at $47.950, lead climbed 0.4%, to $1.953, and zinc remained flat at $3.307 (Reporting and editing by David Goodman. Additional reporting by Noel John, Bengaluru)
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Trump announces that the US will discuss sanctions with Iran and work closely together
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States and Iran are working closely together and discussing relief from tariffs and sanctions. This follows the announcement of the two-week ceasefire. Trump backed away from a full-on attack on Iran, which he had threatened to launch 'on Tuesday night. Two hours before the deadline that he set for Tehran in order to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He stated on social media that he had agreed to many of the 15 points in his plan for Iran, but did no elaborate. In a post on social media, Trump stated that "We will talk about Tariffs and Sanctions Relief with Iran." Despite his ebullient remarks, and the widespread relief?on Iran’s streets and on global financial markets?over the ceasefire?, the main differences between Washington and Tehran are still unresolved, and the two sides continue to insist on competing demands for a possible peace deal. Trump said Wednesday that any country providing weapons to 'Iran will immediately be subject to a 50% tariff for any goods exported to America. Beijing and Moscow both assisted?Iran in building military capability to counter U.S.-Israeli pressure. They provided missiles, air defense systems, and technology to strengthen deterrence and complicate U.S. operation and increase the cost of an attack. Russia and China were restrained with their support for the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran. "VERY PRODUCTIVE RIGIME CHANGE" Trump praised Iran's leaders on Wednesday after U.S.-Israeli?strikes that killed several top officials, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. His son Mojtaba has replaced him as supreme ruler. "The United States will work closely with Iran. We have determined that Iran has undergone a very productive Regime Change!" Trump wrote a post in Truth Social. The United States and Iran will work together to dig up all the nuclear 'dust' that is buried deep in the ground (B-2 'Bombers'). "Nothing was touched since the attack date." The U.S.-Israeli war has not yet deprived Iran of its stockpiles of?near weapons-grade highly-enriched uranium, or its capability to 'hit its neighbours using missiles and drones. Iran's clerical leaders, who faced a mass protest months ago, have withstood this six-week assault with no signs of internal opposition. Reporting by Doina Heavey and Susan Chiacu; Editing and production by Tomaszjanowski and Gareth Jones
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Russell: The ceasefire in Iran is a sign of hope, but the physical oil market will remain stressed.
The physical oil market is still in a state of turmoil despite a planned two-week stopfire between Iran and the United States. Brent crude oil contracts plunged as much as 16% in the early Asian trade on Wednesday, after finishing at $109.27 on Monday. The sharp drop in prices reflects relief that President Donald Trump's alarming threats against Iran civilisation to be wiped out have been postponed. This also reflects the optimism that crude, refined products and liquefied gas (LNG), may be able to resume and continue through the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations are successful. There is a rule that says that if the word "if", appears in a phrase, then it's the most important part of the sentence. It's very unlikely that the peace talks in this case will result in a lasting resolution, as both sides are far apart on many key issues. The negotiations are scheduled to start in Pakistan this Friday, and will last two weeks. An extension is possible if necessary. Iran's 10-point plan aims at securing effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. This is where up to 20 percent of crude oil, refined petroleum products, and LNG were transported prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran on 28 February. The market's optimism about the ceasefire could be put to the test if an agreement is not reached in the coming weeks. There will be little difference in the immediate world of crude oil supply and demand. Supply chains are being affected by the disruptions caused by the closure. Physical markets in Asia will be under pressure for several months, even if the strait reopens fully. SAUDI PRICES Saudi Aramco has increased its official selling prices for cargoes loaded in May to record levels. The?state-controlled oil firm of the kingdom raised its OSP for its benchmark Arab Light for Asian refiners by $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai standard. The price was $17 higher per barrel than the $2.50 increase for cargoes loaded in April. This reflects the growing desperation of some Asian refiners who are desperate to get any crude available. Oman crude finished at $119.31 per barrel on Tuesday, and cash Dubai at $123.20. If these prices continue through May, a barrel of Arab Light Crude for an Asian refiner would cost close to $150. Prices for grades like Oman and Dubai are likely to fall sharply if the ceasefire agreement results in a sustained reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Refiners would still have to deal with the issue of getting enough crude oil while supply chains are severely disrupted. The Saudi price increase may help to rebalance flows, by shifting barrels away from China, which is the largest crude importer in the world, and towards other buyers, such as Japan South Korea, and Singapore. Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimates that Saudi Arabia exported 1.37 million barrels a day in April. This is up from the 1.04 million barrels bpd of March. China receives?about 29% of the total imports in April. The high price of Saudi crude oil for May's cargoes could encourage Chinese refiners, however, to reduce imports in favor of cheaper supplies from Russia. Africa, and South America. It may be possible to free up Saudi cargoes so that they can be shipped to countries like Japan and South Korea. Imports from the top exporter of the world have been falling since April. South Korea's Saudi Arabia imports are expected to fall to 520,000 bpd by April. This is the lowest level since?Kpler began collecting data in 2013 and down from January's recent high of 1,14 million bpd. In April, Japan's imports of Saudi Arabia were estimated at 373.600 bpd, a Kpler low. This is down from the December peak of 1,41?million. The crude oil market is likely to use prices to determine the direction of supply. Wealthy countries are likely to be able secure enough?crude to get them through this current disruption. Fuel shortages will cause economic damage to developing countries in Asia and Africa. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Commission finds that Norway should not be pursuing nuclear energy now
A government appointment commission stated on Wednesday that Norway should not begin a comprehensive nuclear power introduction process at this time, given the?abundant hydropower and alternative energy sources available. In?2024?the Norwegian government appointed a 12-person committee that would examine the future potential use of nuclear energy in the Nordic nation. This was the first in-depth assessment since the 1970s. The government stated that the need for more emission-free energy was necessary to meet the expected rise in demand due to electrification, and the ambitions of private companies to set up nuclear power production. The committee chair Kristin Halvorsen (a former Finance Minister) said that the Norwegian power system was not dependent on the?system properties of nuclear energy, as we have abundant hydropower here in Norway. According to Statistics Norway, hydropower will account for 89.9% of Norwegian electricity generation in 2025. Wind power will take 8.6%. Finland and Sweden, two Nordic neighbors, have built or plan to build new reactors. Other European countries are also looking at nuclear power as a way to generate electricity without emissions. The committee stated that while nuclear power would theoretically be compatible with the Norwegian system, at the moment it is not profitable. It also requires extensive work in order to develop the necessary regulatory regime. It proposed to create a 'national competence project' that would keep up with technological innovations and enable a quicker introduction of nuclear energy should it become relevant. Norway has a surplus of electricity, but demand will increase as more transport and industrial activities are electrified. Terje Aasland, Energy Minister, said that for the moment, the main levers to meet demand will be onshore wind, upgrading?of existing?hydropower, and offshore wind, but nuclear power could still play a part in the future. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Nora Buli)
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Slovakia ends diesel fuel export ban but other measures remain in place
Prime Minister Robert Fico announced on Wednesday that Slovakia would end the temporary ban on diesel fuel exports on Friday, but will continue to implement other fuel restrictions due to 'the conflict in the Middle East. Slovakia has taken steps to deal with the soaring global oil prices, since U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran began at the end February. The United States and Iran reached a ceasefire on Tuesday evening. The Slovakian government approved on March 19 a resolution allowing service stations the ability to limit diesel sales. It also increased prices for cars with foreign license plates in an effort to curb "fuel tourism". These temporary measures will remain in place. The Iranian crisis coincided with the interruption of Russian oil supplies to Slovakia via Ukraine. Slovnaft is the only refiner in the country, and it's owned by Hungarian Oil and Gas?group MOL. In February, when an oil emergency was declared, Slovnaft received a loan for up to 250.000 tonnes of crude oil from state reserves. Fico said on Wednesday that Slovnaft has already returned the oil loaned. The loan allowed Slovnaft to find an alternative supply after the Druzhba flow in Ukraine was stopped by what Kyiv claimed was a Russian strike which damaged a line. Slovakia and Hungary have accused Ukraine, which Kyiv has denied, of blocking flows due to political reasons. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson in Prague, with Jason Hovet reporting from Prague)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Big relief rally for now
April 8th - Alun John gives us a look at what the U.S. markets and global markets will be like today. The markets exhaled Wednesday following the announcement of a two week?ceasefire? between the U.S.A. and Iran. This was first announced by U.S.President Donald Trump on Tuesday night, just before his deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks and bond prices soared on the news, and the dollar lost some of its recent appeal as a safe-haven currency. Analysts and traders will be 'wary' about the durability of the ceasefire, and whether it can lead to a lasting resolution to the conflict and energy crisis. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. BIG RELIEF FOR NOW Since the beginning of the Iran War, the price of oil has dominated the global markets. It's no surprise that the news of a ceasefire, which sent both Brent and WTI back below $100 per barrel, has caused some major movements around the globe. S&P 500 Futures are up by 2.5%. Major indexes in Europe and Asia posted or will post their largest daily gains since last April. Japan's Nikkei rose over 5%, South Korea's KOSPI by more than 6% and Europe's broader?STOXX600 was up around 3.5%. Travel, banks, technology, and industrials are the main beneficiaries of lower energy prices and falling yields. A South Korean standout is chipmaker SK Hynix, which rose 15%, helped by expectations high for its own quarterly results following Samsung's monster profit forecast on February 2. The energy stocks have been the worst performers?on Tuesday, but are still up a lot for the year. Meanwhile, the safe-haven dollar slid. Dollar index falls from recent 11-month-highs. The U.S. currency is retreating on all developed markets - including the Japanese yen which has been under fire. It has retreated below 160 per dollar after almost crossing this threshold on Tuesday. The announcement has boosted bond prices, and U.S. Treasury rates have fallen as traders bring the prospect of Fed rate reductions back into the discussion. The yields of euro zone government bonds also dropped as traders reduced their bets on rate hikes by the ECB. The biggest move has been in Britain where yields have fallen over 20 basis points. The traders will be hoping that the ceasefire of two weeks is effective and lasting as intended. The ceasefire is conditional on Tehran reopening Strait of Hormuz. It has said that it would do so if the attacks against Iran stopped. The markets aren't saying we're in the clear yet. Brent above $90 was a bad sign for the world's economy and stock markets just a few months ago. We are nowhere near the amount of central banks easing that was priced before the war. To keep the optimism going, U.S. - Iran negotiations, which are set to start on Friday, will have to be more positive than they were before. A number of contentious issues?will likely prove to be a problem. The news of a ceasefire is a huge improvement over President Trump's bellicose threats and rhetoric earlier in the week. Chart of the Day A temporary ceasefire and reopening the Hormuz will allow Middle Eastern oil exporters to move significant volumes of crude trapped in the Gulf since hostilities started, providing global energy markets with some 'immediate relief.' writes Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist. Watch today's events * U.S. ?10-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT) Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity and neutrality.
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Oil drops below $100, stocks surge as Iran ceasefire sparks rally
Stocks and bonds soared after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. This brought relief to the markets as they hoped for a return of oil and gas flows through Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced the ceasefire just two hours before the deadline he set for Iran to reopen its strait, or face damaging attacks on civilian infrastructure. Iran has said that it will cease its counter-attacks if the attacks on it stop. After past policy reversals the market rally revived investor talks of the TACO trade - or Trump Always Chickens Out. However, some pointed out that the damage done to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East during the?month long conflict would have long-term effects on the global economic system and the prospects of a lasting peaceful were far from certain. Nabil Milali is a portfolio manager for Edmond de Rothschild. He said that he was relieved to see the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Trump, he added, had calculated further escalation would likely backfire. "So, he chose the only option that was available to him: a unilateral Taco," he said. He added that oil prices will likely stay "structurally" higher for some time. Brent oil futures fell last week by 13.7% to $94.29 a barrel. U.S. crude futures dropped 16% to $94.93 per barrel but were still above pre-war levels. European stocks rose by 4% following the strong gains across Asian markets. Wall Street futures predicted gains between 2.7% and 3.5%. The U.S. Dollar fell, after being the safe haven during the turmoil. Its index against major currencies eased to 98.842. The markets can deal with the complexity later. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that the markets have been given green light for now to rally. Two Weeks of Relief Investors were eager to know if the ceasefire would lead to a wider resolution before they placed major bets. Does it mean that people will take on new risks? Martin Whetton is the head of Westpac's financial markets strategy. He said that it does not. It would take a lasting peace to change the situation. The people are not taking risks." Gold prices rose 1.7%, to $4.783 an ounce. U.S. Treasuries surged after the announcement, with traders placing the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year?on the table. However,?doubts over whether oil prices would return to pre-war level kept enthusiasm in check. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 4.2438% - the lowest level since mid-March - while U.S. 2-year Treasury notes fell to 3.7318%. The yields of euro zone government bonds also fell sharply as traders reduced their bets about future rate increases from the European Central Bank. Rohan Khanna is the head of euro rates strategy for Barclays. He said that "the evolution of oil will determine whether this rally (in bond prices) continues or fades, which depends on how negotiations proceed." The meeting is three weeks away, and in these markets, that's a lot of time. Reporting by Iain Withers and Tom Westbrook; Additional reporting by Dhara Raasinghe. Editing by Jamie Freed and Chris Reese.
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Ukraine imports record volumes of fuel as Prime Minister presses for lower price
Ukraine imports record amounts of fuel in March, despite the market turmoil caused by the Iran War. The pace will be maintained for April, according to Prime Minister Yulia vyrydenko, who urged traders to lower their prices. Ukraine is now almost entirely dependent on imports to meet its diesel and gasoline needs. Diesel prices almost doubled after the Gulf conflict, causing concern among farmers who were about to begin the spring sowing campaign. This is critical for the country. Svyrydenko stated on Telegram that "we are recording a decrease in quotations at the major exchanges which should have an impact directly on fuel prices in Ukraine." She said that Ukrnafta, the state-owned company, had already started lowering its prices. If this trend continues globally, she believes a "more significant?decrease is expected." She said that the Ukrainian market must be able to respond to price changes fairly. Diesel demand in Ukraine is traditionally highest in spring when farmers plant spring crops. It also peaks during the harvest, which occurs in the second half of summer. And in early fall, when winter grains are planted, mostly wheat. (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill; Reporting by Pavel Polityuk)
Sources say that China's teapots are looking for Iranian oil as prices have fallen.
Three trade sources reported that independent Chinese refiners, with new import quotas issued by Beijing, began'seeking immediate cargoes of Iranian oil after the oil price slumped on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures fell below $100 per barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since March 11 after a?U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran, subject to an immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the U.S. - Iran conflict erupted in late February, the Chinese refiners - known as teapots - have largely stayed out of the fray. This has caused global oil 'prices to soar, and Washington has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian crudes at sea, erasing any discounts on?these cargoes.
A trader with a connection to Iranian oil trade told us that there were inquiries this morning, as Brent dropped into the $90 range.
A second trader stated that while some inquiries have been made, few deals have yet been completed as prices are still significantly higher than the pre-war level.
Traders said that offers for Iranian Light are at parity - or a slight premium - to ICE Brent, compared to a $10 discount per barrel before the conflict.
The price of Russian oil is now about $8 higher per barrel than it was previously due to the strong demand by Indian refiners.
Independent refiners planned to reduce their production in April due to the rise in crude prices and still-weak demand for domestic fuel. China's state planner last week warned them to not reduce processing rates below average for the past two-year period, in order to protect domestic fuel supply as state-owned refineries trim output.
Trade sources stated that maintaining higher run rates with current margins will result in "significant losses" for teapots.
According to a report published by the local consultancy SCI, on March 31st, Shandong's average refining loss per metric ton was 143 yuan (20.94 dollars) from March until March?27.
China issued new crude oil import quotas on Friday to independent refiners to encourage more refinery runs. The quotas are worth about 55 million metric tons (401,5 million barrels), according to sources in the trade and analysts.
Sources in the refining industry said that details on how to use these quotas and each refiner's volumes remained unclear. Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore, Chen Aizhu in China, Florence Tan, and Trixie Yap, with editing by Kim Coghill.
(source: Reuters)