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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Oil prices soar and stocks end in volatile trade
Oil prices soared on Thursday, and equity markets around the globe were volatile as traders weighed contradictory developments and remarks related to Iran war. As some major Wall Street indices and U.S. Bond prices retraced gains after news broke that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will "hit Iran extremely hard" over the next few weeks, and "bring [them] back to the Stone Ages," the U.S. oil prices soared by nearly 8%. Wall Street's stocks finished mixed on the last trading day of the week before Good Friday. Gold prices dropped as the U.S. Dollar gained. Government bond yields increased on the expectation that an inflation spike would force central banks to increase interest rates or at least hold them. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen and the euro) rose by 0.44%. Felix-Antoine Vezina Pouirier, BCA Research, said that Tehran and Washington had exchanged a cacophony in the last 48 hours. Some of these statements suggested a rising likelihood of de-escalation. GeoMacro strategists provide a simple guideline for weighing headlines that are volatile: stick to the facts. The shipping through Hormuz increased in the last few days. Second, Iran has deliberately "shifted away from GCC targets (Gulf Cooperation Council), toward 'Israeli' targets." WALL STREET POINTS WERE LOWER The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.35%, to 993.18. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.13%, to 46,504,67. The S&P 500 gained 0.11%, to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18%, to 21,879.18. In an address that was closely watched on Wednesday, Trump stated that U.S. attack on Iran will be intensified in the next two-three weeks. This was just one day after Trump said the U.S. will be "out Iran pretty soon." Both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 indexs lost 0.2%. The Kospi Index in South Korea fell 4.7%. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior rate strategist at TD Securities said: "The only question that matters is whether or not the Strait of Hormuz opens soon." Trump said earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. The U.S. Spot gold dropped 1.85% to $4.669.05 per ounce, and U.S. Gold Futures fell 2.8% at $4.679.70. India's central banks has banned the trading of non-deliverable futures to stop the rupee from falling to record lows. The currency rose 2% after the move, but analysts were unsure how long it would last. Brent?futures rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended up 11.41% at $111.54. Jon Withaar, Pictet Asset Management, said that the fact that "boots on the ground" were not ruled-out (during Trump’s TV address), and that the threats to strike infrastructure were repeated, would put the market 'on the defensive'. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell by 1.6 basis points to?4.305%. The yield on the two-year notes, which usually moves in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve was flat at 3.803%. The yields on the benchmark Bunds in the Eurozone ended a three-day slide and traders increased their bets that interest rates will rise. The yield of the benchmark German 10-year increased by 0.1 basis points, to 2.996%.
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Israel's Leviathan Gas Field to resume operation after war shutdown: Energy Ministry
The 'Israeli energy minister' announced a resumption of?operations at the offshore israeli?Leviathan field after a one-month war shutdown. Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched their attacks against Iran on February 28, the?field operated by Chevron has been closed. In a press release, a spokesperson for the energy ministry said that "after situation assessments and an?review? of all relevant factors?it has been decided at this stage?to return?the Leviathan platform?to operation. The supply of natural gas will continue to be supplied to the local market and will now be increased by adding another platform to the production systems. Leviathan, one of the largest gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean with a recoverable gas estimated at 635?bcm, is a large gas field. Chevron, along with its partners, approved plans in January to 'vastly increase production' at the field. The resulting?project is expected to supply Egypt and other countries with natural gas worth more than $35 billion. The expansion is expected to 'boost gas supplies from Leviathan in the region and Europe by 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, flowing at about?21bcm.
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Pakistan increases fuel prices by more than 50% amid escalating Mideast conflict
Pakistan raised consumer prices for petrol and diesel by more than 50% on Thursday, its second price hike in less than one month. This was due to the rising global oil prices, which were sparked by the conflict in the Middle East. Diesel prices will rise by more than 55%, to 520.35 Rupees ($1.88) a litre. Petrol prices are expected to increase by 55% or so to 458.40 Rupees a litre. The price increase was inevitable due to the international markets prices spiraling out of control following the US-Iran War, Pakistan's Petroleum Minister, Ali Pervaiz?Malik said at a press conference broadcast on state television. He also spoke with the country's Finance Minister. Last month, the South Asian country raised the prices of diesel and petrol for consumers by around?20%. They cited higher oil prices caused by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran. This decision will likely lead to a rise in inflation, which will hit Pakistan's poor population. Pakistan imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia and UAE via the Strait of Hormuz. In a separate news conference, the country's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced subsides aimed at providing relief to?small farmers and motorcyclists as well as intercity transportation goods and passengers. Malik stated that the government has given a subsidy worth 129 billion rupees over the past three weeks. However, it is no longer affordable because of the increase in international oil prices. He said that, "Since resources are limited and no end to the war is in sight," there was no way to continue with blanket subsidies. U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 11% on Thursday. Brent prices also soared in volatile trading, a day after Donald Trump announced that military operations will be intensified.
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Bloomberg News reports that SpaceX aims to raise more than $2 trillion in its IPO.
Bloomberg News reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX boosted?its IPO target valuation above $2 trillion. Citing people familiar with the issue, the report set the stage for the biggest stock market listing ever. Bloomberg News reported that SpaceX's advisers and SpaceX are circulating the figure?to potential investors for its initial public offering. They added that the details of the IPO may still change. The startup recently submitted confidential IPO paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and plans to launch its market later this year. According to the report, Starbase, Texas, a firm headquartered in Texas, could raise up to $75?billion. This would surpass the 2019 IPO by Saudi Aramco which is the largest ever. A previous expectation of $1.75 trillion valuation already sparked debate about how much value was driven SpaceX's cash generating Starlink business, and how much premium could be added to its dominance of space launches and unproven ventures like Starship and space based AI. SpaceX didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The IPO 'comes a few months after Musk merged SpaceX and his artificial intelligence startup xAI in a deal valued at $1 trillion for the rocket company, and $250 billion for Grok, its chatbot developer. Rocket maker is lining up investors for its IPO well in advance. ?It had discussed?with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund taking an anchor stake in the IPO of about $5 billion, reported on Thursday.
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Cubans protest US sanctions by riding electric tricycles and bikes
Cuban activists rode electric tricycles and bikes along Havana’s Malecon boulevard on Thursday, accompanied by Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. The demonstration was a defiance against U.S. attempts to starve Cuba of fuel. Participants in a government-organized car caravan rode by the U.S. embassy in Cuba's capital with their pedal and electric-powered vehicles, displaying banners and flags criticizing the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. The rally was held a day after Cuba’s top diplomat in Washington invited the U.S. to help rebuild Cuba’s crippled economic system as part of ongoing negotiations that are yet to produce results. Participants at the rally stated that they "favored" talks with Cuba but demanded respect from the United States. Sheila Ibatao is a Havana student of law who participated in the event. She said: "I think that a genuine dialogue between two governments is possible. But international law and our nation's autonomy must both be respected." Diaz-Canel did not speak at the event. Cuban officials often hold large rallies in front of the U.S. embassy. This caravan was more discrete and smaller, and hampered by fuel shortages that have crippled mobility. This week, a Russian-flagged ship arrived in Cuba and unloaded?700,000. barrels of crude, promising relief in the coming months. The Trump administration has said that it allowed the Russian flagged tanker to dock at Cuba's Matanzas Port for humanitarian reasons. (Reporting and editing by Dave Sherwood, Will Dunham and Ayose Naranjo)
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California's final nuclear power plant to operate until at least 2030
The governor of California, the largest state in the United States, announced on Thursday that federal regulators had approved an operating license extension for the last nuclear power plant still standing in the state. Under'state law, it can run until at least '2030. PG&E Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, located on California's Central Coast, was originally scheduled to close in?2025. However the plant which contributes 10% of 'the state's overall electricity has remained operational despite 'rising demand and rising power bills' California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the renewed federal licenses will allow Diablo Canyon to continue providing a 24/7 carbon-free power supply as California faces increasing electricity demand, hotter summers and continues investments in grid reliability. Nuclear?power plant owners in the U.S. are asking the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to extend the life of their reactors. These reactors were mostly built in the '70s and ’80s. Electricity consumption is at record levels due to the proliferation of a?energy intensive data center and the electrification of _buildings and _transportation. Diablo Canyon is only allowed to operate until the end of this decade by California law. Reporting by Laila KEARNEY in New York, Editing by David Gregorio
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US agencies monitor drinking water for microplastics and pharmaceuticals
On Thursday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced that they would monitor the impact of microplastics and pharmaceuticals on water. This is the first step in assessing the health risks associated with these substances and forming new policies. The announcement was hailed as a victory for President Donald Trump’s "Make America Health Again" agenda by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., whose priorities included reducing childhood vaccinations and promoting healthy foods in the new dietary guidelines. The EPA has now included microplastics, pharmaceuticals, and other contaminants on its sixth Contaminant Candidates List. This means that they will be tested and monitored in accordance with the 'Safe Drinking Water Act, and they will receive funding for their research. "We cannot treat what we can't measure." Kennedy told a press event at the EPA's headquarters that we cannot regulate something we do not understand. Zeldin, the EPA, and MAHA activists have been criticized for not addressing their concerns. This includes microplastics and failing to apply more stringent pesticide rules. "For too long, Americans were ignored as they raised the alarm regarding plastics in drinking water. Zeldin stated at the press event that this will no longer be an issue. Supporters of RFK Jr. and MAHA helped elect Donald Trump as President in 2024. MOVE FOLLOWS PERIOD OF PETITION Seven U.S. Governors, including those from New Jersey and Michigan, as well as more than 175 environmental and public health groups filed a petition late last year asking the EPA to include microplastics on its list of contaminants that should be monitored. The list is updated five times a year. Microplastics, or microscopic plastic pieces, have been found everywhere. From inside the human body to drinking water and even in the depths of oceans. Several studies have linked microplastics to cancer or reproductive harm. Plastic industry groups dismissed these'studies' and claimed that the science is still not settled regarding the harms caused to microplastics. Judith Enck of Beyond Plastics, a former regional administrator at the EPA, called this "an important step." Kimberly 'Wise White', vice president for regulatory and scientific affairs of the American Chemistry Council (which represents?plastic manufacturers), said that the group supports scientifically-driven monitoring of water drinking for microplastics. Kennedy pledged that he would tackle plastic pollution, including its manufacture, when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 2024. Later, Kennedy endorsed Republican candidate Trump, whose government warned last year that countries should oppose any attempts to cap plastic production as part of a potential UN agreement to limit plastic pollution. Human waste and improper disposal of pharmaceuticals can cause them to enter the water system. The EPA also plans to release benchmarks on human health for 374 pharmaceuticals that will be monitored. Reporting by Valerie Volcovici, Washington; Additional reporting and editing by Leah Douglas
Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed.
Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply.
The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese.
YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state.
The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel.
"Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended."
Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment.
Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
(source: Reuters)