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Sources say that global aluminium producers have paused premium offers for Japan Q2 due to the uncertainty in the Middle East.

Four sources who were involved in quarterly pricing discussions said that global aluminium producers had pulled their initial premium offers for Japanese buyers or let them expire as they feared the threat posed by a escalating Middle East war to cargoes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan is a major importer of metals in Asia, and the premiums it pays for primary metals shipments over the London Metal Exchange cash price each quarter set the benchmark for this region.

South32 and Rio Tinto both offered Japanese buyers premiums for April-June shipments of $250 and $220 per metric ton, respectively, which is a 13% to 28.8% increase from the current quarter.

Sources say that South32's offer expired before the conflict escalated on Friday. Rio retracted its offer?on a Monday saying it had to assess potential disruptions.

Four sources have spoken on condition of anonymity, as the subject is sensitive.

Rio Tinto has declined to comment.

Even a short term shortage of aluminium could cause regional premiums to rise for months if the benchmark is raised.

A source from a producer stated that "production of aluminum in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait, appears to be unaffected."

Source: "Should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, shipments may be delayed and could potentially lead to a tightening of global supply including in Asia", the source said.

Source: "We're monitoring the situation, but our plans to set the premium for the April-June quarterly quarter by the end March remain unchanged,"?the source stated, adding that the manufacturer plans to make a new offering as soon as they can.

A second source from a trading firm said that even if the Strait remained closed, there were alternative shipping routes available to the UAE. Other suppliers in Asia could also be contacted for alternative supplies.

He added that if hostilities continue, alternative measures will be needed. While obtaining primary metals may be possible, finding substitutes for products with added value is more difficult.

In 2025, Japan will import about 20% of its primary aluminium from the Middle East.

For the period from January to February, Japanese buyers have agreed to pay $195 per ton as a premium. The increase in demand is due to fears of a tightening supply.

Last week, Japanese buyers and producers started quarterly pricing talks. These are expected to continue in the coming weeks. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Additional reporting from Melanie Burton in Melbourne; editing by Clarence Fernandez).

(source: Reuters)