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Argentina's YPF increases investment forecast to $6.2 billion by 2026
YPF, the Argentinean oil company, is planning to invest up to $6.2-billion in 2026. This is higher than its previous estimate of $5.8-billion, said CEO Horacio Martin on Tuesday during a presentation for investors. The executive said that YPF now projects EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of $8 billion for this year. This is a significant jump from the 'previous estimate' of $6 billion. He said that the increase in EBITDA was due to a rise in oil prices. YPF is the leader in the Vaca Muerta Formation, which has the second largest unconventional shale-gas reserve and the fourth-largest shale-oil reserve. YPF reported a net 'profit' of $1.21billion in the second quarter 2026, compared to $58m a year ago. The company cited higher shale shale production, record shale processing levels, and a rise in international prices. The country depends on the formation's growth to 'boost' the country's foreign currency reserves, which are needed to'stabilize its economy, reduce inflation and pay back heavy debts to IMF.
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Markets expect key US inflation data
The price of gold edged up a little bit?on Monday after reaching a'more than two-month high earlier.?Market participants are awaiting important U.S. Inflation figures which could influence expectations about the Federal Reserve policy path. Gold spot was up 0.1% at $4,393.69 an ounce, at 09:37 am EDT (1337 GMT), having hit its highest level in June at $4,434.84. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.8% to $4453.40. The market is waiting for this week's data on inflation to confirm that the inflation rate is under control, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. He added that a moderated annualized CPI would?continue support gold. After the weak U.S. July jobs data, which was released on Friday, led to a reduction in bets on the Fed raising rates next month and a 2.4% gain on gold each day, it is likely that Wednesday's consumer price report as well as Thursday's producer price data will influence monetary policy expectations. Grant stated that "gold is still reasonably well bid as of this point, in light of the disappointing jobs data last week which has eroded expectations regarding a rate increase in September." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still price in a probability of 48% for a hike in September and 78% in December. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, said that she believed the time was right for a gradual increase in rates to avoid a need for a sharper increase later. Gold that does not yield tends to be less attractive in an environment with higher interest rates. In the geopolitical arena, U.S. president Donald?Trump has responded to Tehran's demands for a peace deal by requesting that Iran pay compensation to those who have died in wars, terrorist attacks, and protests. Oil prices retreated despite signs of progress made in Oman and Iran talks?over shipping via the Strait of?Hormuz, as they were weighed against the ongoing disruption of Middle East energy supplies. Silver spot fell 1.4%, to $64.81 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, to $1749.51, while palladium declined 1.3%, to $1364.75. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources say that Russia's Sibur Petrochemical Plant in Western Siberia was shut down after a drone attack.
Three industry sources have confirmed that the Sibur Zapsibneftekhim Petrochemical Complex in Tobolsk (in western Siberia's Tyumen region) was damaged by a drone attack on Monday. Sources said that the plant, Russia's largest liquefied gas plant, was closed indefinitely while the damage and its effects were assessed. Regional Governor Alexander 'Moor' said on Monday that an industrial site had caught fire in the Tyumen area following a drone attack, but he did not name the facility. Sibur declined to comment on an inquiry. The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange has not offered any LPG deliveries from the Tobolsk loading station on Tuesday. In the first half of this year, 4,000 metric tonnes per day were regularly sold from Tobolsk. Zapsibneftekhim, according to industry sources, produces approximately 6 million metric tonnes of?LPG per year, which is about 40% of Russia's total LPG production. About half of the LPG produced at the site is used as feedstock in the petrochemical plant at Sibur Tobolsk.
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South Africa mine dump collapse kills 14 illegal miners, police say
Police said that at least 14 suspected illegal miners were killed and eight injured when a mine-dumping site collapsed on Monday in South Africa's North West Province. Arthur Peter Adams, the provincial police commissioner, said that search and rescue operations are underway for an unknown number of people trapped near Rustenburg. Adams stated that the collapse happened as miners were digging for platinum group metals in a 'disused dump' on a private company site. Lesotho is a country in Southern Africa. The nationality of the deceased has not yet been confirmed. South Africa has been plagued by illegal mining for many decades. It can range from small-scale thefts to operations run by organized criminal networks. Undocumented'miners' often enter abandoned commercial mines in order to extract the remaining deposits. Illegal mining costs the government and mining industries hundreds of millions?of dollars each year as a result of lost sales, taxes and royalties. (Reporting by Siyabonga Sishi. Nilutpal Timsina is reporting from Johannesburg. Alexander Winning, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
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Ukrainian prisoners describe torture and sexual abuse they suffered while detained in Russian custody
Former Ukrainian detainees as well as Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of torturing civilian and military?detainees. They also said that they held them incommunicado, subjected them to electric shocks, and sexually abused thousands of people. Russia has rejected the allegations that were made during an informal U.N. Security Council Meeting. Its Deputy U.N. representative Maria Zabolotskaya called it "a campaign of disinformation" and claimed that Russian prisoners held in Ukraine had been subjected "to torture and degradation, and moral and physically abuse." Khuan Levya-Garsiya is still an active member in the Ukrainian military. He claims that his Russian captors tortured him for 1,183 days. "Yes ... "I was tortured," said he to reporters after the U.N. conference. "Anything that you can imagine, which is hurtful or humiliating, could be done to a male, without his consent. You can imagine anything, including verbal abuse, physical abuse and electrocution. All the things that could be done to someone in order to break them mentally. All of it was applied to me, and many of my "comrades." Garsiya told the U.N. meeting that he had been lucky to have survived, but two of his close friends died in Donetsk detention centers. He told the U.N. that prisoners were kept in "overcrowded bars without adequate conditions" where "almost everyone was ill with dysentery," and many of them were starving. He said that guards were targeting him because of his Latino surname, accusing him?of being "a mercenary, and an American spy." Leniie Umerova is a Crimean Tatar activist who was released as part of a prisoner swap in 2024. She said that she had been detained when trying to visit her seriously-ill father in Crimea. She said she was moved through "seven prisons" in a "carousel" of repression and accused Russia for torturing Ukrainians held in captivity. Oleg Gushin, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War of the Ukrainian Government, said that Ukrainian prisoners are "tortured and killed" while in custody. He claimed that Kyiv identified "more 300 places of detention in Russia and on occupied Ukrainian territory" and while "thousands", if not "thousands", Ukrainians were still in Russian captivity. Volodymyr Pavlichenko, Ukraine's Charged d'Affaires, called for increased international pressure on Russia to hold it accountable for the treatment of its prisoners. "WIDEPREAD AND SYMPATHETIC" U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Claudia Fuentes Julio stated that U.N. monitoring showed "widespread, systematic torture and ill treatment of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war and civilian detainees continues by the Russian Federation Authorities," including sexual violence. Since February 2022 the?U.N. The Office of the United Nations' High Commissioner for Human Rights documented the executions of 129 Ukrainian POWs at the start of their captivity, and the deaths in custody of 48, which resulted?from torture or denial of medical treatment, or from other inhumane detention conditions, she said. She stated that more than 95% Ukrainian prisoners of war interviewed had reported torture or mistreatment. She said that more than half of respondents also reported sexual abuse, such as "rapes, gang-rapes, beatings while nude and beatings on the genitals." She stated that the?U.N. She said the?U.N. Fuentes Julio stated that the OHCHR also documented torture and ill treatment of Russian and foreign nationals held as prisoners of war by Ukraine but on a "fundamentally different scale." She stated that about half of Russians and other third-country detainees interviewed had reported abuse in the initial stages of their captivity. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; David Brunnstrom, Andrea Shalal)
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Andy Home: Copper's Congo-panic says more about copper and Congo than ROI-Copper
Doctor Copper had a panic episode last week when the Democratic Republic of Congo banned exports of cobalt and copper concentrates. On the news, London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper jumped to a six-month high at $14,369.50 a metric ton. Cash price reached a record high of $14.453.60 per metric ton as spreads tightened simultaneously. Despite Congo being the largest supplier of battery metal in the world, there was no reaction from?the CME cobalt prices. Cash cobalt ended Friday at $25.99 a lb, a 0.9% drop on the previous week. It is easy to understand the cobalt market indifference. Congo does not export cobalt concentrates but rather cobalt hydrxide, a product intermediate that is already subjected to export quotas. Congo exports very little copper concentrate and focuses instead on refined metal. Kinshasa banned the export of copper concentrate on three occasions in the past, but granted repeated exemptions to miners. Copper's acute sensitivity at any sign of disruption in supply is the real story here, not Congo's ambition to move further down the value-chain. Tightening the screws The copper deposits in Congo are ideally suited to electrowinning. This means that most operators can convert the metal they mine directly into metal. According to StoneX analysts, 82% of Congo's total production last year was produced on-site as refined copper. Kinshasa, however, has not hidden its intention to process the remaining concentrates itself. The two first export bans, in 2013 and 2019, failed because the Congo lacked a large-scale smelting capability. Rolling waivers enabled concentrate exports to continue. The investment from China's state owned mining company CNMC, and Yunnan Copper, enabled the country to get its first modern smelter by 2020. Lualaba's smelter is capable of processing?400,000 tons per year but that amount does not cover Congo's production. The 2023 ban on exports also included waivers. This was especially true for the "giant Kamoa Kakula mine complex", a joint venture of Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining Group, which began producing in 2021. Ivanhoe agreed to build a new steel smelter in exchange for the money. This it did. The company reported that the massive plant, which can produce 500,000 tons per year, was put online in January last year. It has been operating at 60% capacity since February. In the first half 2026, China's copper concentrate imports from Congo dropped by 31% on an annual basis. Congo's processing deficit should be reduced as the smelter increases. In case this doesn't happen, the new ban allows for "strategic waivers". SUPPLY SENSITIVITY Goldman Sachs says that the latest export ban won't have a "material impact" on global copper markets. It will however tighten a raw materials market that is already under pressure. Smelter processing charges have fallen due to fierce competition in the copper concentrate market. Copper bulls are accustomed to the smelter pressure, which is why they reacted so strongly to last week's announcement. London's market is the most sensitive to supply-side disruptions, as it is caught in the middle of China's gravitational pull and the United States, with its even greater force, due to the threat of import tariffs. LME copper stock has fallen from 401,000 tonnes in early May to just 214,550, with 58% of the total held as cancelled warrants, awaiting actual load-outs from exchange warehouses. Another 138.408 tons of Copper are in LME off warrant storage. 79% of the shadow stock is at U.S. Ports, ready to be cleared through customs, if the CME Delivery Premium over the?LME increases. Time-spreads are tightening as a result of the tension in London. The benchmark cash-to-3-month spread has fallen from its highs of last week, but the outright price of copper is still up. The cash premium has gotten tighter. On Monday, cash premiums reached $171 per ton, the highest since October of last year. Doctor Copper's panic is unlikely to be the only one if LME stocks continue to?drain away eastwards and westernwards. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Stocks edge higher as oil prices rise amid US-Iran tension
On Tuesday, oil prices were?just below $90 per barrel as the United States and Iran reached an impasse in their negotiations over a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile,?uncertainty about the global inflation outlook dampened a rise of the?stocks. U.S. President Donald Trump responded on Monday with his own conditions to Tehran's demands for a deal. He called for Iran to compensate those who died in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This could complicate efforts to reopen this crucial waterway. Brent crude futures rose 5% over the past two days and last traded at $88 per barrel. This was their highest price since July 31, and almost 25% higher than early July's four-month-low. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that the war will be fought on attrition. "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting around the $75-$95 range while we wait to find out who blinks first." Money markets indicate that there is a 50% chance of an increase at the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist for Capital Economics. He said: "We believe that risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a rebound?in rate expectations, and potentially, renewed concerns about stagflation." U.S. Treasuries stabilized. The 2-year Treasury yields fell by 1 basis point to 4.23%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yields remained essentially flat at 4.7%. Investors' risk appetite is further impacted by a new push up in 30-year bond rates towards the 19-year highs of above 5.28% that were reached in July. The latest news, which has seen yields and commodities prices move higher, has changed the mood to a more hawkish one. The STOXX 600 index in Europe pared its earlier losses and gained 0.1% for the day. MSCI's All-World Index was unchanged. Nasdaq's futures rose by 0.4% while those for the S&P500 rose by 0.2%. The benchmark indexes declined?on Sunday. Overnight, Nvidia announced that it had teamed with six major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Apollo, to create funding measures for AI infrastructure worth more than 500 billion dollars. The plan did not reveal any more details, including financial terms, commitments to invest or how $500 billion could fit in with existing funding arrangements. Sycamore said, "A small piece of me wondered if this was how it felt when the first sub-prime loans became mainstream products - the innovation which ultimately helped trigger the GFC." Another selloff of Nvidia bonds highlighted some investor concerns. The Tradegate platform last showed its 2% bond maturing in 2031 at 4.86%, an increase of 4 basis points from Monday. Intel, on the other hand, raised $20 billion via a share offering, which was the first time since 1971 that it had offered its stock. Intel shares dropped around 1% during premarket trading. The yen, among currencies, was once again in the spotlight as it fell below 159 and was well off its high of last week of 155.20. This was after several suspected rounds of interventions, including one by Japan and the United States. The holiday in Japan led to a thinner trading volume than usual. This is often viewed as a catalyst for possible intervention as small trades have a greater impact on prices than normal. Gold, which is up 8% this month so far, was also 0.1% higher than the previous day, at $4,394 per ounce. (Rae Wee contributed additional reporting from Singapore; Clarence Fernandez edited the story with Kate Mayberry, Toby Chopra and Toby Chopra.)
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Austrians rush to slaughterhouse as hot weather in Europe stunts Austrian crops
Farmers say that the scorching European summer of this year is affecting agriculture, even in Austria. The heat has'stunted' crop growth, and cows have been dragged from parched Alpine pastures to be slaughtered early. Johann Fessl is a dairy farmer from northern Austria who raises his cattle on Alpine pastures at 1,300 meters (4,300 feet). Heat and lack of rainfall have caused a shortage of grass and water for cattle. This will force farmers to move cows to barns earlier to eat hay that was intended for winter last year. Some farmers send their cattle to slaughter earlier to reduce costs. Fessl is the head of an association of pasture-based cattle producers in Upper Austria. He explained that the situation differs on every hill and mountain. He said that some farmers are discussing emergency slaughters this year. "The list of people waiting to be slaughtered is long." GRAIN HARVEST IS EXPECTED BY 19% TO SHRINK THIS YEAR. Crops are also affected. AgrarMarkt Austria - a national organization that oversees food production - said in a statement this month that it expects grain harvest to be 19% smaller. Corn, which needs even more water, also suffers. Roland Radner, a farmer in Germany, cut down his corn very early because the yield was so poor. The remaining stems are yellowed and not the usual green. The heat has halted the development of many of Barbara Stemberger's 30 varieties of tomatoes in the greenhouses near Linz. Due to the extreme heat in the last few weeks, many tomatoes have blossom-end rot. The tomatoes can still be eaten if the rotten bits are removed, but they cannot be sold as-is. There is at least a silver lining for them. Stemberger stated that "the carrots are flourishing exceptionally this year due to the heat." (Writing and editing by Francois Murphy)
The AI boom and Brittle bonds face off in the morning bid of AMERICAS
The ROI team's weekend reading, viewing and listening.
Mike Dolan is Editor-at-Large for Markets & Finance
Hello Morning Bid readers!
The week began with a new surge in sovereign bonds yields across the globe as the 'Iran energy shock' kept the pressure up on oil prices and inflation expectations, along with rate-hike betting. The risk-off trend took attention away from the AI frenzy and global equities were volatile. However, major indexes rose later in the week led by chipmakers.
Bonds were under renewed pressure as government borrowing costs reached several milestones. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Yields hit a new high this week. Japan's long term borrowing costs have also reached new records - and Britain's gilt rates are at their highest level since the 1990s, as investors worry about a potential change of Prime Minister. Bond?selling slowed down late in the week as gilts were given a reprieve from UK inflation that was below expectations and Andy Burnham's, the mayor of Manchester, who is the main contender to Keir?Starmer's premiership.
The energy crisis showed no signs of abating, but the Gulf situation remained the main aggravating factor for bond yields. Brent crude prices fluctuated throughout the week. Fresh attacks in the area over the weekend pushed Brent crude over $110 per bar on Monday. After reports that six million barrels of oil had been transported by supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz, prices dropped to $105/bbl.
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to pursue his hardball approach: he floated the idea of a new military strike while simultaneously urging Tehran towards a peaceful settlement, and he talked up the prospects for a breakthrough. The oil prices rose again on Thursday after Tehran seemed to be hardening its stance regarding its nuclear program, underlining the distance between the two sides in their negotiations.
Energy markets are in a race against time. Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief executive officer, warned that a crisis was looming as crude oil inventories in the world could reach critical levels if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This could indicate that the global oil market is only a few months away from a crisis.
The summer months may be the most difficult for fuel supply disruptions.
The recent ructions in the markets could be a sign of things to come, now that Kevin Warsh is in charge. Markets can no longer assume that the Federal Reserve would always buy bonds when they are in need.
Warsh takes over at a challenging time. Warsh, who is set to be sworn into office at the White House today, was expected to pursue rate reductions once he assumed his position, as per the president's stated wishes. This may not be possible, given the inflation backdrop.
Strangely, Trump appeared to back down from his demand for immediate rate reductions this week. In comments to the Washington Examiner he said he would "let Warsh do what he wants" to rates.
Does that mean that rates are unable to fall as long as the price pressures continue? Fed policymakers seem to be increasingly in agreement. Minutes of its April policy meeting were released on Wednesday and provided more context to the hawkish remarks in last month's statements.
The accelerating inflation in the U.S. has forced real interest rates to negative territory.
This week, the chip giant Nvidia announced its first-quarter earnings. It was one of the most anticipated events of this year's earnings season. The results were strong, but the reaction of the stock price was not as positive. This is a sign that the share price is already reflected in the optimism and the high bar set for the world's largest company to continue to impress markets.
A planned strike by Samsung employees dragged the tech giant down on Wednesday. However, the South Korean chipmaker, after an 11th hour deal, surged to a new record high on Friday, pulling the KOSPI index with it.
Elon Musk filed for SpaceX's long-awaited IPO on Wednesday. It could be the biggest in history. Sources claim that SpaceX could list its shares on the Nasdaq as soon as June 12. OpenAI is also reportedly planning to file an IPO soon, with a listing date of early September. AI rival Anthropic will also be hitting the Street.
Open Interest. For more data-driven insight on markets and commodities. Open Interest. Open Interest.
Why could AI increase the neutral interest rate? What could happen if the status quo changes in the Gulf region threatens the dominance of U.S. dollars? How is it that Australia's LNG industry is both uninvestable, and also the country's "greatest growth opportunity"? What is the story behind zinc's surprising strength? Which countries are the most susceptible to a diesel price squeeze? Why would China bulls be wise to tread lightly? Three key reasons for the continued equity rally
We're reading this weekend... RON BOUSSO. ROI Energy columnist. In his Substack Noahpinion economics columnist Noah Smith argues militaries that do not use drones in'modern warfare' are outdated. He warns that drones made in a day can destroy a whole year's production of tanks from Rheinmetall. It's scary stuff. GAVIN MAGUIRE is the ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist. A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency shows that the decarbonization of heavy road transport, which was long viewed as a permanent reliance on diesel due to the cost and weight associated with batteries, has become increasingly viable. Things are changing fast. CLYDE RUSSELL: Columnist for ROI Asia Commodities and Energy, former columnist John Kemp, has created a slide deck that provides a clear and comprehensive look at the global impact of the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz on the oil markets. It includes graphical analysis of flows and prices.
We are listening to... Ron Bouso, a?ROI Energy columnist. This podcast from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies analyzes how oil prices have responded to the?Hormuz Crisis in a volatile and sometimes unexpected manner.
We're keeping an eye on... JAMIE MCGEEVER. In March, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, and Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects, discussed the energy shock caused by the three-week-old Iran War. They reconvene two months later, and are still bearish, despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Currie asks: Why is oil at $100 and not $200 if markets are "la-la land"?
Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed are the authors'. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
(source: Reuters)