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Beijing's plan to control the global iron ore markets

China's iron ore state buyer uses increasingly aggressive tactics against mining giants like BHP in order to tighten their grip on the $132 Billion seaborne market, and to extract better terms from steel?mills. This is happening just as an enormous new supply source is about to strengthen China's hand.

China Mineral Resources Group, (CMRG), in November asked their steel mills and traders to refrain from buying spot cargoes for a second BHP-product. This was months after the group blacklisted a product that had raised concerns with Australia's top supplier.

Analysts and traders said that the standoff over a supply deal for next years' supply?marked a significant escalation?because CMRG hadn't previously banned multiple products coming from a single provider. This shows how far the buyer, who has been in business for three years, is willing to go in order to get better terms for China’s steel industry.

The deal is expected to account for around a fifth (or more) of China's production needs, as well as the majority of BHP's mines located in Australia's north-west.

Interviews with over three dozen steel and mine executives, traders, and analysts indicate that CMRG is assertive but has had limited success. Some steelmakers privately complain that CMRG hasn't delivered better contract terms or prices they wanted.

RBC analyst Kaan Peek in Sydney said that CMRG's tactic with BHP may set a precedent with Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Brazil's Vale. China is looking to reduce the 80% margins enjoyed by the 'iron ore' miners.

CMRG's strategy has been refined and it has seen some successes, but also some mistakes.

Three sources familiar with the matter said that, in a previously unknown move, a Chinese buyer obtained a freight-related discount of $1 per metric tonne on certain large cargo vessels from Rio last.

CMRG became the sole Chinese supplier of iron ore to billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting after a long-running standoff, during which mills, traders and others claimed they had been pressured by Rinehart to not buy Roy Hill MB on the spot market for more than a full year.

In implementing the strategy, CMRG actually made it more difficult for their own steelmakers. The company targeted a product of lower quality that was in demand during times when margins were extremely thin, and forced mills to spend more money to buy from other suppliers.

CMRG refined its strategy to select products that would exert maximum force on individual miners while?minimizing market disruption.

Several Chinese traders reported that mills who were banned from purchasing BHP's Jimblebar blend fines in September could easily substitute Rio's Pilbara Blend fines.

BHP CEO Mike Henry said to CTV Canada in late December that the company is still in negotiations with Chinese clients.

Hancock, Rio, Fortescue BHP, and Vale all declined to comment.

CMRG - the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission - which directly supervises CMRG - the state-backed Steel Association and the world's largest steelmaker, China Baowu Steel Group - did not respond when asked for comment.

In Search of Leverage

China created CMRG 2022 in order to use its position as the largest iron ore purchaser to negotiate better terms with miners whose fat profit margins were a problem when steel mills had paper-thin or negative margins.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that CMRG now negotiates on behalf of mills more than half the 1.2 billion metric tons per year of iron ore imported by China.

CMRG wants to negotiate better terms on the index-linked price and other conditions, such as shipping and promoting more transactions via a domestic index.

Some steelmakers privately complained early on that CMRG’s presence merely increased costs and reduced flexibility with their suppliers. It was bitter to give up negotiation rights, but it was also impossible for state-owned mills to refuse what was effectively a political mission.

CMRG has become the dominant player in annual contract negotiations. However, traders and mills have said that it has failed to offer better prices.

We have no choice but to pay a commission fee. "No, the company did not negotiate better terms or prices for us. "It's a politically charged task, and you must cooperate," said the manager of a steelmaker who refused to identify himself due to the sensitive nature of the issue.

Steel industry sources claim that CMRG commission fees increased procurement costs for mills who were already suffering from low margins due to a downturn in the property sector.

There have been many benefits, but especially for smaller mills. CMRG helped those who were unable to access credit lines to import iron ore, by acting as their buyer.

CMRG is also aggressively buying spot cargoes via its Shanghai-based trading platform in an attempt to reduce volatility. Three sources confirmed this, and also said that the company has a trading target of 100 million tons by 2025.

NEW SUPPLY SOURCE LOOMS

Iron ore prices are still above $100 per ton despite China's slowing economic growth. They have been trading at this level since July. Wood Mackenzie predicts that prices will be $98 per tonne in 2026, and $95 per tonne in 2027.

The vast Simandou Project in West Africa’s Guinea, however, is slated to provide around 7% global supply by 2028. This will tip the market into a surplus of 65 million tons and give CMRG a stronger bargaining position.

Chinese companies are the largest shareholders in Simandou. Guinea is next, with a 22,5% stake, and Rio comes third, with a 22,5% stake.

The ramp-up of Simandou has been widely viewed as a sign that the market dynamics are changing structurally. Peker, of RBC, said that it would fragment Australia's dominance when supplying iron ore into China.

Peker stated that it is "sensible" for China to be aggressive in negotiating better terms of contract this year.

Most mining executives that we spoke with agreed that CMRG will struggle to dominate a market if it doesn't have a dominant supply.

The Chinese really want CMRG more effective. Demand and supply fundamentals continue to determine the price, said Gautam Varma founder of commodity consulting firm V2 Ventures who worked previously at Fortescue.

(source: Reuters)