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Stocks soar to record highs after positive company forecasts. Oil, yen and soaring stock prices.
The Dow and S&P 500 indexes reached record highs on Tuesday following positive forecasts by?Caterpillar, among others, and oil prices extended recent sharp declines. Global stock indexes also reached a record intraday. The Japanese yen fell, but it held onto most of the gains made by Tokyo and Washington last week to support its currency. Qatari and U.S. official comments that encouraged hope for a diplomatic solution to the Iran War that could improve oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil. U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that there had been progress in the "talks" with Iran and Oman regarding moving more ships through strait. However, a final deal has yet to be reached. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier that an agreement with Iran could be reached as early as Tuesday or even Wednesday. U.S. crude dropped 5.43%, to $75.98 per barrel. Brent fell to $79.38 a barrel, down by 5.24% for the day. Caterpillar shares, which are often viewed as a bellwether of the global industrial market, rose as the company raised its revenue growth forecast. It benefited from the buildout of AI-based data centers. Palantir Technologies's shares also surged after it increased its revenue forecast. Oliver Pursche is a senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, based in Westport, Connecticut. He said that investors are reacting to "stronger expectations and higher earnings." "There is a general feeling of optimism and it's being reflected." According to LSEG, more than 80% S&P 500 companies beat analysts' expectations in the last quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 933.95, or 1.76% to 54,112.36, while the S&P 500 grew by 115.96, or 1.53% to 7,716.66, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 548.22, or 2.12% to 26,462.11. MSCI's global stock index rose 12.87 points or 1.14% to 1,143.88. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.73%. YEN RAISES AFTER INTERVENTION DRIVEN RALLY. The Japanese yen weakened 0.18% to 157.45 dollars per yen after a coordinated intervention by U.S. authorities and Japanese authorities last week to support the yen. The Japanese yen is still stronger than the greenback, compared to levels from a week ago. This prompted the official support of the Japanese exchange market and marked the U.S.'s first intervention in the Japanese forex market in 15-years. Some market participants have warned that the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate increases and Japan's expansive fiscal policy could be a drag on the yen. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket currencies) fell by 0.1%, to 99.91. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.11%, to $1.152. U.S. Treasury rates fell on the back of falling oil prices and hopes that a deal would be reached to end the Iran War. This led traders to re-price their positions for a lower probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The majority of analysts believe Fed chair Kevin Warsh doesn't want to raise rates and that the new data may be enough to convince him to remain put. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 4.91 basis points, to 4.635%. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Stefano Rebaudo in New York. Jamie Freed and Mark Potter edited by Deepa Babington.
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Gold prices rise on lower oil prices, US jobs data and Fed rate outlook to be released
Gold prices rose 1% on Tuesday, supported by the decline in oil prices, which tempered inflation fears and lowered U.S. rate hike bets. Markets awaited more clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Spot gold increased 1% at $4,092.43 an ounce as of 12:50 pm EDT (1650 GMT), and U.S. gold futures rose 1.5% to $4149.50. The oil price fell to its lowest level in three weeks after remarks by officials from?Qatari, the United States and other countries raised hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Iran War that could improve the?oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell over 4% in response to the news. Bart Melek said that lower?oil prices are probably one of the factors supporting gold price. He added that this decline has in many ways contributed to interest?rates outlook, with short-term rates a little bit falling. The Fed is expected to keep rates high for longer in order to combat inflation. This will put pressure on bullion that does not yield. John Williams, New York Fed President, said earlier on Monday that he was optimistic about the gradual easing of inflation pressures. If they don't, however, then the U.S. central bank will not hesitate to raise rates. After a divided Fed left rates unchanged at its last policy meeting, traders are now pricing about a 57% probability of a rate increase in the central bank's September meeting. The market is now waiting for a number of U.S. jobs reports, including ADP's employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls data due Friday. Silver spot gained 2.8% per ounce to $59.82, platinum rose 7.1% at $1,745.42, while palladium rose by 7.1% at $1,355.13. The Platinum Group Metals are getting the full impact of a probable de-escalation, as they are industrial metals. Their fortunes will be tied to a potential recovery in conventional offtake, said independent analyst Ross Norman.
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Brazil Steelmaker CSN launches new bid round for Cement Unit
Two people with knowledge of the negotiations said that a Brazilian steelmaker,?CSN, is planning a second round of bidding this week for its cement division. The deal could be worth more than 10 billion reais (1.95 billion dollars). Sources said that the top contenders were China's Huaxin, a consortium?formed by Brazil's Votorantim, and Italy's Cementir. Both proposals will?exceed 10 billion reais. Sources claim that the Brazilian group Polimix is also involved in the process. It is one of the largest cement companies in the country. The first newspaper to report the new round of bidding was Valor Economico, a Brazilian publication. Votorantim refused to comment. CSN, Huaxin Cementir, and Polimix have not responded to our requests for comment. CSN is divesting key assets in order to reduce its debt burden. Conglomerate hired advisers to sell CSN Cimentos and a stake in CSN Infrastructure which runs its railways and logistics assets. In April, Chief Financial Officer Marco Rabello said that deals would be closed by the end of the year. However, final approval might take longer as the Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE will need to approve them. Reporting by Luciana Magnhaes, Editing by Brad Haynes & Rod Nickel
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Lockheed is seeking U.S. minerals after Trump's supply-chain push.
Lockheed Martin is in discussions to purchase two vital minerals from U.S. mining companies, according to two sources who are familiar with the talks. This comes as President Donald Trump "pressures" defense contractors to reduce their reliance on China. Sources said that the world's largest defense contractor, Lockheed Martin, is in talks with NioCorp Developments to supply scandium and?Teck Resources for germanium. Both minerals are used by military equipment, from aircraft components to sensors for infrared, according to these sources. The deals are a major step forward in the U.S. effort to build up domestic mineral supply chains. However, there are obstacles: Chinese suppliers offer cheaper prices and U.S. processing and mining capacity is limited. Lockheed manufactures the F-35 Lightning II jet fighter, Patriot interceptor missiles, and other weapons for the U.S. Government. Trump has pressed Lockheed, and other companies in the industry to provide long-term support for U.S. mines. China has tightened its controls on minerals exports over the past few years. He signed an executive directive last month that made it more difficult for defense contractors, who had been allowed to purchase minerals from China or other banned foreign suppliers for many years, to get waivers. This?order shows how far behind U.S. miner and processors in the race to compete with China's dominance of the market, even though dozens of U.S. mineral projects are currently under development. According to a source who is familiar with the agreement and its details, Colorado-based 'NioCorp developments' has signed a preliminary contract to supply Lockheed 15 metric tonnes of scandium per year. Scandium is one of 17 rare earths which can be used in the manufacture of lightweight, corrosion resistant alloys for aircraft. The details of this agreement were not previously known. NioCorp is supplying the metals from its Nebraska mine. The mine is scheduled to open in 2028 and produce?100 tons of metal per year. The agreement will need to be "finalized", although there is already a relationship between the two companies as part of a Pentagon funded research program. The contract volume would represent about a quarter the global scandium market, which is estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey at 60 metric tonnes and growing. Mark Smith, NioCorp CEO said that both companies recognized how scandium was becoming an important part of the future American defense technology. Lockheed expressed its appreciation for "the work NioCorp does to establish a source of domestic scandium." Since 1969, scandium hasn't been mined in the United States. Rio Tinto, the only North American producer of scandium with a capacity to produce approximately nine metric tonnes annually, is the sole North American manufacturer. GERMANIUM NEGOTIATIONS A second person with knowledge of the negotiations revealed that Lockheed and Teck Resources are in separate talks for a supply germanium used to manufacture?infrared sensor's and other military equipment. Teck produces a concentrate of zinc and germanium from its Red Dog Mine in Alaska. The concentrate is then melted in British Columbia, and the two metals separated. Teck doesn't break down its annual production of germanium but calls itself the fourth largest global producer. USGS estimates global germanium consumption at 60 metric tonnes annually, and growing. The U.S. imports more than half of its germanium needs. The?U.S. imports more than a half of its germanium needs. Second source: Lockheed also has discussions with 5N Plus in Quebec, which received Pentagon funding earlier this year to process recycled feedstock into germanium in Utah. According to the second source, "Lockheed wants a long-term security of supply chain,"? They are under pressure so they want to know whether the supply comes from China or somewhere else. The negotiations?with Teck and 5N?have been ongoing for over a year. According to the source, the sticking points were the pricing and the lengths of the contracts. 5N representatives were not available for comment. Teck declined comment on specific commercial agreements but stated that it had agreed to work with the Canadian Government to increase Germanium processing in British Columbia. Lockheed responded that it constantly assesses the "global critical minerals supply chain" to ensure its customers have access to materials to support their missions. Chinese critical minerals have been cheaper for many years than those from Western suppliers due to differences in the mining practices, regulations standards and other factors. Reports from earlier in the year suggested that Western governments were trying to free regional minerals prices of Chinese influence. Reporting by Ernest Scheyder and Divyarajagopal, both in Houston; editing by Veronica Brown and Sanjeev Miklali)
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Mass escape of inmates from western Libya during armed clashes
Libyan police reported that inmates staged an 'escape from a prison on Tuesday?, while armed clashes broke out in two cities to the west of Tripoli. In a press release, the?Tripoli Judicial Police Authority?stated that the mass escape took place at Surman prison and that they had opened an investigation. The police did not disclose the exact number who had escaped. They said that they formed a committee "to identify them and take the necessary legal actions against them." Salem Bahr - a local leader from the town of Zawiya - appealed to Libya Al-Ahrar, a TV channel based in Turkey, for an end in the fighting, because "everyone loses in this situation." Bahr stated that the clashes killed three civilians, and injured many others. No one was able to immediately say who took part in the violence, or why. Since the overthrow Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya has experienced unrest. Clashes took place between rival armed factions in Zawiya, and Surman. Zawiya is located 40 km (25miles) west of Tripoli and hosts Libya's largest Azzawiya Refinery with a daily capacity of 120,000 barges. Azzawiya oil company issued a Facebook statement urging employees to "take maximum precautions" and to "completely avoid areas of clashes, and roads leading there." Unverified footage from the internet and local television?channels shows large plumes black smoke rising into the sky. Other clips show heavy gunfire in Surman and Zawiya. The mayor of Surman Mohamed 'Abu Snina described the humanitarian crisis as'very bad. He said that the clashes caused severe damage and that the relative calm returned to the city following the deployment of neutral forces. Ahmed Elumami, Alistair Bell and Ahmed Elumami contributed to this report.
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Zambian miners look to the election in hopes of support for copper expansion
Mining firms in 'Zambia' have set their priorities for the upcoming elections. These include a stronger incentive for processing minerals, revitalizing exploration, and 'expanding electricity generation'. They say these measures are necessary to achieve the country's target of tripling its copper output. Africa's second largest copper producer aims to triple its current output, reaching 3 million metric tonnes, in order to capitalize on the growing demand for metals used in construction, EVs, and power networks. The demand for copper has led to a 40% increase in the benchmark futures prices in the last year, to $14,000 per ton. Ayo Sopitan is the chief executive officer of Metalex Commodities, a mid-tier mining company. He said that to triple copper production, there will need to be stronger incentives in exploration, local manufacturing and value addition as well as major infrastructure investments. Sopitan added that Zambia needed to strengthen its rule of law and dispute resolution mechanisms. Export duties on concentrates continue to burden producers who lack refining capability. Anthony Malenga is the president of Zambia’s Chamber of Mines. He said that high investor confidence through tax reforms, and closer engagement with miners has helped attract over $10 billion in investments since?the?2021 election. He said that policy discussions between government and mining companies are helping to address the most outstanding issues in terms of competitiveness. However, Zambia's ambitions for growth now depend on a robust exploration pipeline. Malenga stated that the mining industry requires real growth, and this can only be achieved by increasing spending on greenfield exploration. He added that reforms in licensing should ensure that exploration permits are held only by companies who have the ability to develop projects. Over 8 MILLION ZAMBIANS To Vote Zambia's economy is based on mining, which contributes about 9% to GDP, generates 72% of export revenues, and accounts for almost half of the government revenue. On August 13, more than 8 millions Zambians will vote to elect the president, legislators and local government representatives. Analysts predict that President Hakainde Hichilema will be re-elected in a peaceful?poll. This indicates a broad continuity of policy for investors. According to a senior source in the industry, Zambia has implemented several important reforms over these last four years. These include currency regulations, rules on local content and fuel cost measures. Menzi Ndhlovu is a lead analyst at Signal Risk. He said that while investors expect little change in the fiscal regime following the election, power shortages, and the pressures on labour are the greatest threats to Zambia's copper-growth ambitions. Ndhlovu stated that the power generation capacity could be insufficient to support major mining expansions without significant new investments. Zambia's Mines Ministry did not immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Zambia's industry executives estimate that it needs an additional 2,000 megawatts to meet its production goals, although recent investments are expected to ease the supply pressure.
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BYD launches first Brazilian plug-in hybrid flex vehicle as sales soar
The top executive of BYD in Brazil said that the Chinese automaker will launch its first Brazilian-made plug-in hybrid flex fuel car on Tuesday, after a two year?investment. In an interview, Senior Vice-President Alexandre Baldy revealed that the Song Pro Super Hybrido Flex Fuel, which hits dealerships in Brazil on Wednesday features a powertrain capable of running on gasoline, electricity or ethanol. He added that the GL version's range on electric power alone is 60 km (37 mi) and 120 km for a higher-end GS model. Baldy stated that the vehicle was built at BYD’s Camacari factory in northeastern Bahia State. The car also meets the company’s goal to use more than 50 percent local parts on all Brazilian-made vehicles by January 2027. TAILORED TO BRAZIL He said that the project was a symbol for BYD. This first ever collaboration between the research and development teams of Brazil and China resulted in a project that was tailored specifically for the Brazilian market. BYD, which was originally established in Brazil to assemble semi-knocked down vehicles, is now shifting production locally to comply with Brazilian laws and to establish Brazil as a regional hub for exports. The Camacari factory, which opens in October 2025 and will manufacture batteries, as well as other components, is already sourcing tires from local suppliers. Baldy stated that the Song Pro Flex, although developed for Brazil, could target other markets including India as ethanol fuels spread. BYD expects to produce 180,000 cars in Camacari this year. Baldy stated that the factory is likely to supply around?150,000 vehicles of the approximately 200,000 cars the company hopes to sell in Brazil by 2026. BYD said that July was its best month in Brazil. The company's Dolphin GS?topped the retail market, selling?5,861 unit. The total sales of 23,465 cars, which is more than twice the 9,680 vehicles sold in July 2012, places it in fourth place in the country with a 9.1% market share. Luciana Magnalhaes reported. Mark Potter (Editing)
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The first North Korean memorial to Vietnam War dead will be unveiled 60 years after the war ended
Vietnam will renovate and build a memorial to North Korean servicemen who died fighting in the Vietnam War. This is a rare public acknowledgement of Pyongyang’s role. According to Vietnamese and North Korean media, North Korea sent fighters to North Vietnam during the 1960s. Some flew Soviet MiG-17 jets on combat missions against U.S. planes. Vietnam and North Korea have a long history of?diplomatic relations dating back to Cold War times, but Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the Vietnam War is little-known. Quan Doi Nhan Dan, a newspaper of the Defence Ministry, reported that the memorial project was discussed in a meeting chaired on Monday by Deputy Defence minister Nguyen?Thang and attended by North Korean ambassador Ri Sung Guk. Thang was quoted as saying: "The Party State People and People's Army of Vietnam will always remember and cherish the effective 'assistance' of North Korea, and the sacrifices of North Korean'martyrs' in their struggle for national independence in the past." According to the report, the memorial will be constructed as part of the restoration work at North?Korean Martyrs' Cemetery in Bac?Ninh Province. According to the online newspaper VnExpress, the cemetery was created for 14 North Korean air force personnel who died in 1967 and 1968. They were aged between 19 and 40. In 2002, their remains were returned to North Korea. Reporting by Khanh Vu, Editing by Alison Williams
Beijing's plan to control the global iron ore markets
China's iron ore state buyer uses increasingly aggressive tactics against mining giants like BHP in order to tighten their grip on the $132 Billion seaborne market, and to extract better terms from steel?mills. This is happening just as an enormous new supply source is about to strengthen China's hand.
China Mineral Resources Group, (CMRG), in November asked their steel mills and traders to refrain from buying spot cargoes for a second BHP-product. This was months after the group blacklisted a product that had raised concerns with Australia's top supplier.
Analysts and traders said that the standoff over a supply deal for next years' supply?marked a significant escalation?because CMRG hadn't previously banned multiple products coming from a single provider. This shows how far the buyer, who has been in business for three years, is willing to go in order to get better terms for China’s steel industry.
The deal is expected to account for around a fifth (or more) of China's production needs, as well as the majority of BHP's mines located in Australia's north-west.
Interviews with over three dozen steel and mine executives, traders, and analysts indicate that CMRG is assertive but has had limited success. Some steelmakers privately complain that CMRG hasn't delivered better contract terms or prices they wanted.
RBC analyst Kaan Peek in Sydney said that CMRG's tactic with BHP may set a precedent with Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Brazil's Vale. China is looking to reduce the 80% margins enjoyed by the 'iron ore' miners.
CMRG's strategy has been refined and it has seen some successes, but also some mistakes.
Three sources familiar with the matter said that, in a previously unknown move, a Chinese buyer obtained a freight-related discount of $1 per metric tonne on certain large cargo vessels from Rio last.
CMRG became the sole Chinese supplier of iron ore to billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting after a long-running standoff, during which mills, traders and others claimed they had been pressured by Rinehart to not buy Roy Hill MB on the spot market for more than a full year.
In implementing the strategy, CMRG actually made it more difficult for their own steelmakers. The company targeted a product of lower quality that was in demand during times when margins were extremely thin, and forced mills to spend more money to buy from other suppliers.
CMRG refined its strategy to select products that would exert maximum force on individual miners while?minimizing market disruption.
Several Chinese traders reported that mills who were banned from purchasing BHP's Jimblebar blend fines in September could easily substitute Rio's Pilbara Blend fines.
BHP CEO Mike Henry said to CTV Canada in late December that the company is still in negotiations with Chinese clients.
Hancock, Rio, Fortescue BHP, and Vale all declined to comment.
CMRG - the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission - which directly supervises CMRG - the state-backed Steel Association and the world's largest steelmaker, China Baowu Steel Group - did not respond when asked for comment.
In Search of Leverage
China created CMRG 2022 in order to use its position as the largest iron ore purchaser to negotiate better terms with miners whose fat profit margins were a problem when steel mills had paper-thin or negative margins.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that CMRG now negotiates on behalf of mills more than half the 1.2 billion metric tons per year of iron ore imported by China.
CMRG wants to negotiate better terms on the index-linked price and other conditions, such as shipping and promoting more transactions via a domestic index.
Some steelmakers privately complained early on that CMRG’s presence merely increased costs and reduced flexibility with their suppliers. It was bitter to give up negotiation rights, but it was also impossible for state-owned mills to refuse what was effectively a political mission.
CMRG has become the dominant player in annual contract negotiations. However, traders and mills have said that it has failed to offer better prices.
We have no choice but to pay a commission fee. "No, the company did not negotiate better terms or prices for us. "It's a politically charged task, and you must cooperate," said the manager of a steelmaker who refused to identify himself due to the sensitive nature of the issue.
Steel industry sources claim that CMRG commission fees increased procurement costs for mills who were already suffering from low margins due to a downturn in the property sector.
There have been many benefits, but especially for smaller mills. CMRG helped those who were unable to access credit lines to import iron ore, by acting as their buyer.
CMRG is also aggressively buying spot cargoes via its Shanghai-based trading platform in an attempt to reduce volatility. Three sources confirmed this, and also said that the company has a trading target of 100 million tons by 2025.
NEW SUPPLY SOURCE LOOMS
Iron ore prices are still above $100 per ton despite China's slowing economic growth. They have been trading at this level since July. Wood Mackenzie predicts that prices will be $98 per tonne in 2026, and $95 per tonne in 2027.
The vast Simandou Project in West Africa’s Guinea, however, is slated to provide around 7% global supply by 2028. This will tip the market into a surplus of 65 million tons and give CMRG a stronger bargaining position.
Chinese companies are the largest shareholders in Simandou. Guinea is next, with a 22,5% stake, and Rio comes third, with a 22,5% stake.
The ramp-up of Simandou has been widely viewed as a sign that the market dynamics are changing structurally. Peker, of RBC, said that it would fragment Australia's dominance when supplying iron ore into China.
Peker stated that it is "sensible" for China to be aggressive in negotiating better terms of contract this year.
Most mining executives that we spoke with agreed that CMRG will struggle to dominate a market if it doesn't have a dominant supply.
The Chinese really want CMRG more effective. Demand and supply fundamentals continue to determine the price, said Gautam Varma founder of commodity consulting firm V2 Ventures who worked previously at Fortescue.
(source: Reuters)