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Draft shows that EU leaders will demand greater industry support in order to achieve the new climate goal
By Kate Abnett BRUSSELS - European Union leaders will agree to set a new target for climate change for 2040 but insist that the EU do more to help industries such as steel and automaking meet this goal, according to draft conclusions for a EU summit taking place next week. The EU was planning to adopt its new climate goal by the U.N. deadline of last month. The talks broke down when France, Poland, and other countries demanded that the government leaders debate the 2040 target first, expressing concerns about how to finance the low-carbon transformation alongside priorities such as defence and revitalising the local industries. Draft conclusions from the 23 October summit of EU leaders, as seen by, stated that leaders would agree to allow EU countries and legislators to proceed with setting the 2040 goal for climate. The draft conclusions for an EU leaders' summit on 23 October, seen by, said that leaders would agree to allow legislators and countries in the EU to proceed with setting the 2040 climate goal. The draft conclusions dated 13th October stated that "special attention should be given to traditional industries such as automotive, shipping and aviation, and energy-intensive sectors, like steel, metals, and chemicals so they can remain competitive and resilient in a global marketplace." The draft conclusions did NOT demand any specific funding or changes in EU policies to be made as a condition for the leaders to support the goal of reducing emissions. Some countries want to change the carbon border tariff of the EU, but others want to weaken the 2035 phase out of new combustion engines cars. The draft conclusions stated that the EU must achieve its climate goals "in a technology-neutral manner". This phrase is often used by government officials to oppose EU policy which restricts certain technologies such as the phase-out of combustion engine cars. Last week, German chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to work to prevent a hard cap in 2035 on CO2-emitting vehicles. If EU leaders approve the conclusions, then their climate ministers will meet on 4 November to approve the target climate, just in time for COP30, the U.N. climate summit. (Reporting and editing by Frances Kerry.)
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Investors shun risk as stocks plummet and gold soars
As investors became uneasy about the mounting tensions between China and the U.S., they sold global shares, while bonds and gold rose. This was due to the growing anxiety over the upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. The markets had earlier reacted to Monday's positive cash session, after U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump is still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping for a two day summit in South Korea starting October 31. In an interview with the Financial Times, he accused Beijing in particular of trying to harm the global economy. The U.S. will be charging port fees to ocean shipping companies that transport everything from toys and crude oil. "ESCALATE TO de-ESCALATE" Marc Velan said that both Washington and Beijing were posturing ahead of the November summit – escalate to deescalate. "Neither side can afford a war of words as we head into the U.S. midterms." The European stock markets, which hit record highs earlier this month, are down by 0.7%. This echoes the weakness on Asian markets where technology stocks were hit hard. Futures for the S&P 500 sank by 1%. This suggests that the rally of Monday may not repeat itself, but also indicates that a complete reversal is unlikely. Investec's chief economist Philip Shaw stated that "if one looks at recent history, it can be interpreted more as a path to negotiation than a new outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. "Yes, there's uncertainty. But you've seen a big rally not only in U.S. indices, but also a lot of other global indices." While there are some questions about the U.S. China trade friction, I would interpret this latest sell-off more as a slight correction than an increase in investor uncertainty. Wall Street's major indexes ended up as much as 2,2% higher on Monday. Chipmakers led the way, as Trump struck a more accommodative tone regarding trade tensions with China. This reversed some of Friday's panic when Trump announced 100% tariffs against China. Market risk barometers flash red Reflecting increased investor anxiety, gold reversed overnight loss and rose 0.7%, to $4,140 per ounce. This was just short of the new record set on Tuesday of $4,179.48. Bitcoin, which is more likely to follow other risky assets, dropped 3.5% to $111 793. The dollar has gained an advantage over other currencies, including the Australian and British dollars, which have fallen by 0.5% or 0.9% against the greenback. The yen has historically been a safe-haven currency. It gained 0.1% against the dollar to reach 152.04 after Japan's Finance Minister said that the country needed a new strategy to deal with inflation, rather than deflation. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.02%. This is a 3 basis point decrease. The U.S. Bond Market was closed Monday due to a public holiday. The yield on two-year bonds, which is more sensitive to changes in expectations of U.S. interest rate, was down 4.6 basis points at 3.48%. They had fallen 12 basis points since Friday. This marked their biggest two-day drop since early August. Analysts at Danske Bank stated that any escalation of the trade war will only increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will front-load planned rate reductions. The Fed is expected to reduce rates in the coming months and even into next year, to combat a slowing labour market. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1554 on Monday after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to resign, despite two motions of no confidence being brought against his government. Brent crude dropped 1.7% to $62.63 a barrel following an OPEC report that showed the world's oil supply and demand are expected to be in line next year. This is a change from last month, when a shortage was predicted.
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IEA: World oil surplus will increase as OPEC+ increases.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that world oil supply would rise faster than expected in this year, and a surplus may expand by 2026 as OPEC+ and other producers increase output while demand remains sluggish. In a report published each month, the IEA - which provides advice to industrialised nations - said that supply will increase by 3,0 million barrels a day in 2025. This is up from 2.7 millions bpd, as previously predicted. It said that next year, the supply will increase by another 2.4 million barrels per day. OPEC+ has added more crude oil to the market since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies decided that they would unwind some production cuts faster than originally planned. This extra supply has led to concerns of an excess and pressure on oil prices in this year. According to the IEA, supply is increasing much faster than demand. The IEA lowered its forecast on Tuesday for the world's demand growth to 710,000 bpd. This is 30,000 bpd less than their previous forecast. They cited a more challenging economy backdrop. The IEA stated in a report that "Oil consumption will remain subdued for the rest of 2025 and 2026. This is expected to result in gains estimated at 700,000 barrels a day each year." This is below the historical trend as the harsher macro-climate and transportation electrification cause a sharp decline in oil consumption growth. IEA's demand forecasts are lower than other forecasters, such as OPEC. This is because the agency anticipates a quicker transition to renewable sources of energy. The IEA had predicted that the demand for oil would rise by 1.3 millions bpd in this year. OPEC, however, said that the global economy is doing well. IEA says the world market appears oversupplied. The report released on Tuesday showed that global oil production in September increased by 5.6 millions bpd compared to a year earlier, with OPEC+ contributing 3.1 million bpd. The report suggested that the global supply could exceed demand next year by 4 million bpd due to the growth of OPEC+, as well as producers outside the group, such the U.S. Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. It also said there was a limited increase in demand. This compares with about 3.3 millions bpd in the previous month. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, Jan Harvey and Alex Lawler)
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Shanghai copper reverses its gains amid trade war concerns
Shanghai copper fell on Tuesday, as concerns about escalating tensions in trade between China and the United States overshadowed long-standing worries over mine disruptions. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.59%, at 84400 yuan per metric tonne ($11,818.74). Prices rose to 86.790 yuan a tonne in the morning, with hopes of a deescalation in tensions between world economic giants growing after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump was still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea. After the Financial Times published an interview with Bessent, who claimed that China was attempting to harm the global economy, tensions returned. China said that it has also begun to collect port fees. Charges On U.S. linked vessels, this is a counter-measure to Trump's levying of fees on Chinese ships. The copper trader in China said that everyone was focused on the sudden escalation of trade tensions, and they were afraid about the uncertainty. They backed away from the market. Mine disruptions such as the suspension of operations in Grasberg, Indonesia, late last month limited losses despite expectations of a shortage of supply in 2026. As of 0755 GMT on Tuesday, the benchmark three-month contract for copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 2.8% to $10.517 per ton after a gain of more than 2% on Monday. Nickel, lead, tin, aluminium, and zinc all saw little change. The price of aluminium fell by 0.65%. Zinc dropped by 1.13%. Nickel declined by 0.27%. Lead was down 0.35%. Tin was down 0.62%. $1 = 7.1412 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu and Kate Mayberry).
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Sources say that China has made it more difficult to export rare earth magnets.
Sources say that Chinese rare earth magnet manufacturers have faced tighter controls on export licenses since September. This was even before Beijing's decision last week to increase controls on the minerals critical for magnets. The longer reviews that magnet makers are subjected to raise questions as to whether China, which is the world's largest supplier of magnets, is trying to slow down magnet shipments in violation of its commitment to increase exports under a May trade truce, in order to tighten their grip on products vital to military and commercial technology. Two sources familiar with the issue say that obtaining export licenses became more difficult in September. One source said that applications are being returned with more requests for additional information. The approval process is taking longer but still within the 45-day deadline set by the Commerce Ministry. Sources declined to elaborate on questions or comment on how long it takes to get a license. Both spoke under the condition of anonymity, given the sensitive nature of the topic in China. The Chinese commerce ministry has not responded to a request by fax for a comment on the approval of licenses. China's rare-earth exports fell by 31% last September, according to data released Monday. The data doesn't distinguish between magnets and other products, so it's not clear how much of the decline is due to magnets. One of the sources said, "It is not surprising that exports were lower in September because getting a license was more difficult last month." Exports of rare-earth magnets dropped sharply in May and April, but increased in June, and July and August. The data for September will be published later this month. China is the top exporter of rare earths. This group of 17 essential elements are used in everything from wind turbines and electric vehicles to military radars. It controls many types of exports through its licensing system. Beijing increased these controls last week. This angered the U.S. President Donald Trump, who promised to impose more tariffs as well as retaliatory bans on exports. He later adopted a more conciliatory approach. Both sources report that there has been a surge of inquiries from clients abroad who want to ship their orders before the new rules go into effect on November 8. Adam Dunnett said that the EU Chamber of Commerce's Secretary-General, Adam Dunnett, stated that the main concern of its members is the backlog of applications for rare earth products waiting to be approved. He added that the chamber has seen approvals as well as delays for its members in recent weeks. He said: "We cannot say that the level of anxiety and concern has decreased." "Some companies' wait times have been extended without explanation." Reporting by Staff; Editing by SonaliPaul)
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Iron ore prices fall on profit-taking, as the focus shifts from rising supplies to weak steel
Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday, as investors took profits and shifted their focus to the expectation of a growing ore supply for the remainder of 2025. Meanwhile, steel demand in China's top consumer has been seasonal slowing. The January contract for iron ore most traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 2.07%, ending daytime trading at 782 Yuan ($109.55). Earlier in the session, it reached its highest level since September 23, at 809.5 Yuan. As of 0707 GMT the benchmark November iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 2.5% to $105.1 per ton after reaching its highest level in February at $108.05. Rio Tinto, the world's biggest iron ore supplier, said Tuesday that it must finish strong in order to reach its target for iron ore shipments. Analyst Chu Xinli at broker China Futures said that the price rise late Monday was a result of an overreaction due to the possible increase in ore transport costs, which will in fact have a very small impact. "Therefore it is necessary to reprice today which contributed in part to a downward adjustment." On Tuesday, the United States and China will start charging port fees to ocean shipping companies that transport everything from holiday toys or crude oil. The high seas are now a major front in the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. Analysts said that investors were compelled to liquidate long positions in order to cash out profits due to the looming headwinds from rising supply and weakening demand. This led to a collapse of prices. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components increased by 0.74 % and 0.36 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are broadly lower. Rebar fell 0.81%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.7%, wire and rod slipped 0.33%, while stainless steel dropped 0.95%. ($1 = 7.1385 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lucas Liew)
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Data shows that India's Russian crude oil imports between April and September fell by 8.4% YoY.
According to trade sources, India's Russian crude oil imports between the months of April and September decreased by 8.4% compared to the previous year, due to tighter supply and lower discounts. Refiners are also seeking oil from the Middle East, and even the United States. Washington has also doubled the tariffs on Indian products to pressure South Asia to reduce its Russian oil imports. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said India's purchases were funding Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. Shipping data from sources in the trade show that a refiner in India imported 1,75 million barrels of Russian oil per day in the first half fiscal year, which began in April. The data showed that September's volume was flat with August, at 1.6m bpd. It is down 14.2% compared to the same month last year. Reliance Industries Ltd. and Nayara Energy, a private refiner, increased imports while purchases by state refiners fell. U.S. negotiators said that reducing India’s tariff rate is dependent on reducing the purchases of Russian crude oil. India's crude imports from the U.S. in April-September increased 6.8% year on year, to approximately 213,000 bpd. A government source stated last week that the result of the trade negotiations between India and the United States is directly linked to India's increased purchase of U.S. Energy Products. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Trade Secretary, had stated that India would rebalance their crude oil purchases by purchasing more U.S. and less Russian oil. The data revealed that India imported about 4.88 millions bpd in September. This was down 1% from August but up 3.5% compared to the same month last year. During April-September, the share of Russia in India's total imports fell to 36%, from 40%. The U.S.'s share increased marginally. Data showed that the Middle Eastern oil share in total imports in the six-month period to September 2025 rose from 42% to 45%. This increased the share of OPEC countries to 49%, up from 45%.
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Stocks fall as new trade insults knock the wind out of rally
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as growing doubts about whether China and the U.S. can reach a deal over tariffs when they meet later this week amid renewed tensions regarding trade. S&P 500 Futures fell 0.6% as MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan lost early gains and fell 1.2%. Nikkei stocks fell up to 3%. Marc Velan said that both Washington and Beijing were posturing ahead of the November summit – escalate to deescalate. "Neither side can afford a war of words as we head into the U.S. mid-terms." mid-terms." The markets had already recovered from the Monday cash session, after U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump is still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea. In an interview with the Financial Times, he accused Beijing inflaming the situation by attempting to harm the global economy. The U.S. will begin to charge port fees for ocean shipping companies that transport everything from holiday toys and crude oil. Wall Street's major indexes ended up as much as 2,2% higher on Monday. Chipmakers led the way, as Trump struck a more accommodative tone regarding trade tensions with China. This reversed some of Friday's panic when Trump announced 100% tariffs against China. Citi analysts do not anticipate an increase in trade tensions between Beijing & Washington. Citi reported that the U.S. might have to adjust its negotiating stance because China is the only country who has bargaining power. A spokesperson from China's Commerce Ministry said Tuesday that the U.S. could not seek to negotiate while making threats. This would keep markets nervous about the prospects of a wider trade agreement. Beijing announced sanctions against five U.S. linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index, which measures blue-chip Chinese shares, fell 1.3% on the mainland after early gains. Asian chipmakers have experienced a sharp swing between profits and losses. TSMC held onto gains after OpenAI announced it had partnered with Broadcom in order to produce its own artificial intelligence processors. The Kospi index in South Korea lost its early gains due to the wider selloff. Samsung Electronics, which had projected a higher-than-expected rise of 32% in its third-quarter profits, was credited with helping the market rally at the beginning of the session. However, the tech giant fell 1.7% throughout the day. The yen rose 0.3% to 151.85 per dollar after Japan’s finance minister said the country needed a new strategy for dealing with inflation rather than deflation. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.0187% at last close, down 3.23 basis point from a previous closing of 4.051%. Dans a recent research report, analysts at Danske Bank stated that "Trump's new tariff threats remain primarily seen as a negotiation strategy and not a policy reality." The Federal Reserve noted that any increase in the intensity of the trade war could only increase the chances of Federal Reserve implementing its planned rate reductions sooner. The traders expect Fed easing to be a near certainty later this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the pricing of Fed funds futures indicates a 96% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on October 29. This is compared to a 98.3% possibility a day before. The euro barely changed from $1.1584 to $1.1584 on Monday after French President Emmanuel Macron refused calls for resignation, even as two motions of no confidence threatened his current government. Brent crude fell 0.4% to $63,06 per barrel, after an OPEC-released report revealed that world oil supplies are expected to match demand closely next year. This is a stark contrast with last month's forecast, which predicted a shortage. After setting a new record, gold dropped 0.2%, to $4,104.39 an ounce. Bitcoin fell 3.1% to $112 235.34 while ether plunged 6.5% to $ 4,012.79.
Baltic index strikes more than one-week short on weaker vessel rates
The Baltic Exchange's primary sea freight index that tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slipped to a more than oneweek low on Tuesday, pressed by weaker demand throughout all vessel sectors.
* The total index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, dipped 73 points, or 3.53%, to 1,993, its lowest level considering that May 3.
* The capesize index slipped 177 points, or 5.69%,. to 2,931.
* Average daily earnings for capesize vessels,. which normally transfer 150,000-ton freights of iron ore and. coal, to name a few, decreased $1,462 to $24,311.
* The panamax index was down 39 points, or about. 1.93%, at 1,978 for the 2nd successive session.
* Typical day-to-day profits for panamax vessels, which. usually carry about 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo,. lost $358 to $17,799.
* Amongst smaller vessels, the supramax index reduced 10. points, or 0.67%, to 1,475.
* U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a bundle of. steep tariff increases on a selection of Chinese imports, including. electrical lorries, computer system chips and medical items.
* U.S. tariffs on Chinese items are unlikely to. significantly impact dry bulk shipping, but China's capacity. retaliation targeting U.S. grain exports could have a more. substantial effect, Filipe Gouveia, a shipping expert at BIMCO. informed .
(source: Reuters)