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The price of oil drops on the back of OPEC+ and tariff fears
The oil prices fell on Tuesday due to expectations that OPEC+ will increase their output in August, and fears of a slowdown in the economy caused by higher U.S. Tariffs. Brent crude futures were down 16 cents or 0.24% to $66.58 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents or 0.31% to $64.91 per barrel. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a recent note that "the market is concerned the OPEC+ will continue to increase its output at an accelerated pace." Four OPEC+ source told us last week that they plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in August. This follows similar increases in May, July, and June. If approved, OPEC+ would increase its total oil supply for the year by 1.78 million bpd. This is equivalent to over 1.5% of the global demand. OPEC and allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+ will meet on the 6th of July. Oil prices were also held back by uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and their impact upon global growth. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharply increased tariff despite good faith negotiations, as the deadline of July 9 approaches. This is when tariff rates will revert to President Donald Trump’s temporarily suspended rates of 11 to 50 percent announced in April. Morgan Stanley believes Brent futures will retrace back to $60 around early next year. The market is well-supplied and the geopolitical risks have abated following the de-escalation between Israel and Iran. It anticipates a surplus of 1.3m bpd by 2026. Brent prices rose after a 12-day conflict that began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iran's nuclear installations. After the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear sites, Brent prices soared over $80 per barrel. They then dropped to $67 a bar after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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G7 calls for talks to resume on Iran Nuclear Program
According to a statement released jointly, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations stated that they support the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. They also urged the resumption of negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran. Iran and the U.S. began holding talks in April to find a diplomatic solution for Iran's nuclear programme. Tehran claims its nuclear program is peaceful, while Israel and its allies claim they want to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. The G7 Foreign Ministers stated: "We call for a resumption in negotiations that will result in a comprehensive agreement, which is verifiable, and durable, that addresses Iran's nuclear program." Trump announced last week a ceasefire in the war between U.S. allies Israel and Iran, its regional rival. The conflict began on June 13, when Israel attacked Iran. The Israel-Iran war had caused alarm in a region that has been on edge ever since Israel's Gaza War in October 2023. Washington had struck Iran's nuclear facilities before the ceasefire announcement. In retaliation, Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar. The G7 Foreign Ministers said that they had urged "all sides to avoid any actions which could destabilize further the region." Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Middle East envoy, said that talks between Washington and Tehran are "promising", and Washington is hopeful of a long-term deal. G7 diplomats condemned threats made against the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog chief on Monday after a hardline Iranian paper said IAEA head Rafael Grossi was to be tried and executed for being an Israeli agent. The U.N. Nuclear Watchdog's Board of Governors, which consists of 35 nations, declared Iran to be in violation of its nonproliferation obligations on June 12. This was the first time that Iran had been in violation of these obligations in nearly 20 years. Israel, the only Middle Eastern nation believed to possess nuclear weapons, has declared that its war against Iran is to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The U.N. nuclear monitor, who conducts inspections in Iran says that it has "no evidence" of a coordinated and active weapons program.
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Panama removes a portion of the copper stockpiled at First Quantum mine
Panamanian officials announced on Monday that more than a quarter (25%) of the copper concentrator stockpiled by First Quantum Minerals at its Cobre Panama mine, since the mine closed in 2023, has been shipped out. The removal of 33, 000 metric tons of copper out of a total 120,000 tons at the site seems to have ended the uncertainty about the stuck-on copper and may signal a possible thawing in the relationship between President Jose Raul Mulino’s government and the Canadian company. First Quantum has declined to comment. The mine was closed by the previous administration of Panama after public protests about environmental concerns. Panama's Trade and Industry Ministry said that the copper stockpile would be removed gradually, but did not provide a date or any further information about the shipment. "More 33,000 tons of concentrate have been shipped." The ministry stated that the removal of the concentrate will be gradual, depending on weather, technical and logistical factors, and other factors. The ministry said that it, as well as Panama's maritime authorities, customs, and environmental authorities were overseeing the process. First Quantum announced in March that it had agreed to end the arbitration process over the mine. This allowed for the government to resume talks with First Quantum. Reporting by Elida Moreno in Panama City, and Divya Raagapal in Toronto. Editing by Daina Beth Solow, Kylie Madry, and Sonali Paul.
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Businesses call on EU to not weaken sustainability standards
Over 100 investors and companies warned on Tuesday against rolling back European Sustainability Rules that they say support economic growth. The EU is negotiating cuts to these rules in order to reduce costs to local industries. In a joint statement, a group of 29 companies and 80 investors, including EDF and Nokia, and financial institutions, such as Allianz, said that the rules, rather than hindering economic growth, were "conducive" to growth and competitiveness, and also long-term value and returns for investors. The European Union is negotiating proposals to ease corporate sustainability reporting requirements for the majority of businesses. They are also easing a requirement that firms check their supply chain for abuse. This comes amid criticisms from governments and industries who claim that excessive bureaucracy hinders productivity. Germany, France, and certain businesses have called for a dramatic reduction in the reporting requirements. But environmentalists and a larger group of companies and investment firms say that the rules will help them to manage climate risk and to drive capital into the green transition. The rules promote transparency and responsible conduct and are conducive to better risk management, growth and reorienting investments to green technologies. This statement was signed by Ingka Group, IKEA’s parent company. Carine de Bouissezon, EDF's chief impact officer, said that "where there is room for intelligent simplification, we should tweak the regulation. But, we must stay the course, and be proud to do so, to assert our leadership." The group suggested that EU reporting rules be applied to firms with more than 500 workers and that they adopt "transition plan" to show how they are aligned with climate goals. The European Commission has You can find out more about this by clicking here. Exempting companies that have fewer than 1,000 workers - this will cut more than 80% from the approximately 50,000 employees currently covered. Currently, the law applies to companies with more than 25 employees. Some EU legislators want to further scale back the laws to cover only companies with a minimum of 3,000 employees. The final rule changes must be approved by both EU member states and legislators. (Reporting and editing by Virginia Furness, Paul Simao).
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Trump's tax bill gives a break to coal used in steel production
The latest version of Donald Trump's proposed tax bill includes a reduction in the price of coal used to produce steel. This subsidy could amount to hundreds of millions over a period of 10 years, for a fuel which is mainly exported to China. In April, Trump issued executive orders directing Chris Wright, former CEO of fracking and energy secretary, to determine if metallurgical coal, or met coal, is a critical mineral. Wright did so in May. The latest version of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, released by the Senate over the weekend, allows met coal to claim a tax credit for advanced manufacturing production, which is available for critical minerals and would cover 2.5% of the cost of the fuel. Sonia Aggarwal of Energy Innovation, an non-profit organization, said that allowing met coal get credit was insane as it could hurt efforts to switch to fuels with less carbon intensity. Robbie Orvis is a director at Energy Innovation and estimates that the credit for met coal producers could be worth $300,000,000 over a ten-year period. He also said the subsidy might help China compete against U.S. made steel. If Trump decides to use emergency powers, he could increase production by giving met coal the "critical mineral" classification. This is usually reserved for minerals used in high-tech defence systems. Conor Bernstein is a spokesperson of the National Mining Association. He said that the bill promotes jobs in the United States, manufacturing, and the economy. "Providing incentives to encourage steel-making coal is a way to achieve each of these objectives." The Metallurgical Coal Producers Association of West Virginia has not responded to our requests for comment on how the tax credit will benefit producers. West Virginia, a top U.S. mining state, has experienced several layoffs of met coal workers in the last few months. Ben Beakes of the West Virginia Met coal Association blamed layoffs in local media on inflation. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Choy)
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Brazil Celebrates UN Recognition of Environmental Gains of Multicropping for Jet Fuel
Brazil's Energy Minister said on Monday that a UN decision recognizing the environmental benefits of Multicropping for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), was a win for the South American nation, where farmers grow more than one type of crop on the same piece land. Two sources claimed that the United States planned to object to a recommendation made by the 36 members of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This was revealed in reports published earlier this month. In a press release, Brazil's Minister for Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira said, "This victory is further proof that Brazil has been the leader in global energy transformation, and we lead with sustainable, equitable and inclusive solutions." According to the Brazilian government, the ICAO made the decision on Friday, June 27 to recognize the benefits multicropping in producing SAF. The ICAO did not respond to a request for comment. The U.S. State Department refused to comment. Tammy Bruce, spokesperson for the State Department, said in March that the recommendation would penalize U.S. farmers and give Brazil unfair advantage over the rest the world. Bruce also stated that it would lower the carbon score of multicropping or farming, which is when two or three crops such as corn and soybeans are grown on the land. This practice is common Brazil. Oliver Griffin and Allison Lampert report from Sao Paulo.
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Dollar falls, stocks hit new record highs
The dollar fell and is set to have its worst performance of the first half in over 50 years. Canada has halted the digital services tax that targeted U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation date. This was done to help advance the stalled negotiations between Washington and Ottawa. Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister and Donald Trump, U.S. president will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension of Trump's July 9 deadline. Officials have said that most deals can be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the July 9 deadline is still valid for other countries. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that the U.S. might return to the tariffs that were in place when Trump announced a range of harsh duties against nations around the world, and that any decision to extend negotiations would be left to Trump. Wall Street saw modest gains in U.S. stock prices, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones closing at record levels. The technology sector led the way, with a gain of 1%, while the consumer discretionary sector was the weakest performing of the eleven major S&P sectors. Roy Behren said, "Animal spirits appear to have taken root here," said Roy Behren. He is the co-president at Westchester Capital Management. It is not uncommon for the final two days of a quarterly to be strong due to the window dressing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 275.50, or 0.63 percent, to 44.094.77. The S&P 500 gained 31.88, or 0.52 percent, to 6,204.95. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28, or 0.48 percent, to 20,369.73. Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payrolls report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have stated that the strength of labor market allows the central bank to delay cutting rates until it can better gauge the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic stated Monday that the economy still has not fully experienced the impact of Trump's tariffs. He said he expects the Fed to make one more cut this year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Austan Goolsbee, however, said there was no evidence of stagflation. However, he did see the possibility of both inflation and unemployment getting worse at the same time. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its slow way through the Senate. The Republicans will attempt to pass the bill on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over a ten-year period, testing the appetite of foreigners for U.S. Treasury bonds. MSCI's global stock index gained 3.88 points (0.42%) to 918.67, and was on course for its third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 919.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.42% but still managed to secure its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell by 0.41%, falling to 96.80. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.55%, reaching $1.1783. The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, marking its largest drop since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency rate. The dollar fell 0.47% against the Japanese yen to 143.97, while the pound rose 0.08% to 1.3725. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 4.9 basis points, to 4.234%. U.S. crude oil settled down by 0.63% at $65.11 per barrel. Brent settled for $67.61 a barrel, down by 0.24%.
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Chevron Scotland to close office as part of restructuring
Chevron, the U.S. oil company, announced on Monday that it will close its Aberdeen office in Scotland. This move is part of the ongoing restructuring. Chevron's spokesperson stated in a press release that the closure of Aberdeen will occur between December 2025-2026. Chevron announced last year that it would sell the remaining UK North Sea oil assets, and leave the basin after 55 years to focus on assets with higher profits. The company has announced plans to cut up to $3 billion of costs by the end next year. This includes the layoff of up to 20% employees. Chevron's presence in the UK will be maintained through its London office. When asked about the number of jobs that would be lost by closing the Aberdeen office, the spokesperson did not respond immediately. Reporting and writing by Shadia Nasralla, London; editing by Cynthia Osterman
Stocks reach new record highs on optimism about trade and dollar weakness
The dollar fell and is on course for its worst half-year performance since more than 50 years.
Canada has halted the digital services tax that targeted U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation date. This was done to help advance stagnant trade negotiations with Washington. Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister and Donald Trump, U.S. president will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension of Trump's July 9 deadline.
Officials have said that most deals can be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the deadline for other countries is still July 9. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that countries should be aware that the U.S. may return to the tariffs that were in place when Trump announced a range of steep duties around the world. He also stated that any decision to extend negotiations will be made by Trump. Wall Street saw modest gains on the back of Friday's record-breaking closing. Financial names led the way, with consumer discretionary the least performing among the 11 major S&P sector.
Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities. He said: "There's a hope that there will eventually be an accordance with U.S. traders and that slow economic activity will keep inflation in check."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 146.03, or 0.34 percent, to 43.967.14, while the S&P 500 rose by 10.13, or 0.17 percent, to 6,183.75, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 15.44, or 0.09 percent, to 20,291.55.
Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payrolls report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday.
Some Fed officials have stated, including Jerome Powell, that the strength of labor markets gives the central banks the flexibility to delay cutting rates until they have a better understanding of how Trump's tariffs may impact inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic stated Monday that the economy is yet to feel the full impact of Trump’s tariffs. He said he still expects the Fed to make a rate cut this year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Austan Goolsbee, however, said there was no evidence of stagflation. However, both unemployment and inflation could worsen simultaneously. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its journey through the Senate. Republicans will attempt to pass it on Monday.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over the next decade, testing the foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. MSCI's index of global stocks rose 1.49 points or 0.16% to 916.25, and was on course for a third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 9167.05. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.42% but still managed to secure its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell 0.32% at 96.88. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.47% to $1.1774.
The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, the biggest fall since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency. The dollar fell 0.34% against the Japanese yen to 144.16, while the pound rose 0.01% to 1.3716.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 5.3 basis points to 4.2%.
U.S. crude dropped 0.63%, to $65.11 per barrel. Brent was down to $67.63 a barrel on the same day.
(source: Reuters)