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Andy Home: The extended export ban on cobalt does not resolve the Congo's Cobalt Dilemma

The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its export ban for cobalt three months, as the world’s largest producer of battery metals tries to turn its supply power into a pricing advantage. The price response has been muted this time after a sharp rise in February when the news of the initial ban caught the market by surprise.

A certain extension was expected. The physical supply chain is so backed up with inventory that Congo's muscle-flexing does not seem to have fazed buyers. Investors are also not buying into a market turnaround imminent. Cobalt Holdings pulled out of its London Stock Exchange initial public offering earlier this month, where it planned to list an investment vehicle that would hold physical cobalt.

Congo's dilemma with cobalt is to limit the supply of this metal, which is mined from copper and is an even greater revenue earner for this resource-rich nation.

It would be better to concentrate on its own role within the supply chain.

INVENTORY CUSHION

The full impact of February's export ban has been delayed because it takes 90 days to ship Congo’s intermediate cobalt products to China for refinement.

China's imports Congolese Cobalt were strong at more than 50,000 metric tonnes in both March andApril.

The Chinese supply chain remains bloated due to years of consecutive market surplus.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a consultancy, estimates that cobalt stocks outside Congo were equivalent to 8-10 month's global consumption during the second quarter of 2018.

BMI estimates that cobalt hydroxide in China won't be physically depleted until the end of the year, despite the extended export controls by China's biggest producer.

Oversupply is a result of the shift in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers' away from cobalt-based chemistry.

According to an analysis of the Cobalt Institute by Shanghai Metal Market, the country's cobalt consumption by the battery sector decreased last year.

Since DRC only halted exports, not production of intermediate cobalt is also piling in Congo.

BY-PRODUCT BLUES

Cobalt is a by-product, so Congo can't easily follow Indonesia, who has begun using mine quotas in order to limit the production of nickel, despite its inflated price.

Mining restrictions imposed on Congo's producers of cobalt would have a negative impact on the production of copper. Copper is in high demand at present.

London Metal Exchange Copper Price is at a high of close to $9900 per ton due to tight markets for raw materials and refined metal.

Chinese operators, like CMOC Group in Congo, are motivated to continue digging up as much copper as possible. Cobalt is also free.

Congo is the largest cobalt producer in the world, and CMOC the largest company.

NO GOOD OPTIONS The government is considering a system of export quotas to help companies like CMOC and Glencore produce less cobalt while not losing their copper revenues.

However, enforcing export quotas instead of the blanket ban would be difficult to implement and wouldn't address the stockpile that is accumulating within the country.

A policy change could lead to a flood of Congolese cobalt, which would have a significant impact on the price.

The Congolese Government is preparing for a long-term standoff with the market of cobalt and isn't even sure what price it targets.

It is possible that if it sets its sights too high, it could accelerate the loss of cobalt’s market share in the battery industry.

INDONESIAN LESSON

Congo has learned that controlling the supply of cobalt and controlling the market price are very different things. This is especially true when the opposite end of the supply chain in China is thousands of miles from the Congo.

One of the best ways to counter this is by linking exports with commitments to increase downstream processing capacity.

Indonesia has used this linkage successfully in the nickel and copper sector, where this year two new smelters will be launched as a result ever-tighter controls on exports of copper concentrat.

Congo's dominant position in the supply chain will allow it to decide where it is located within the supply chain, even though it may struggle to control the price of cobalt.

This will not alone solve the overproduction of copper, but would result in more revenue per pound of metal extracted from the rich mineral resources of the country.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Barbara Lewis).

(source: Reuters)