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Dalian Iron Ore continues to gain on tight BHP supplies and firmer hot metal production
On Monday, Dalian iron ore futures gained for a fifth session due to the tight supply of BHP’s?Jimblebar fines and Jingbao's fines. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE) rose 0.58%, to 781.5 Yuan ($111.01) per metric ton. As of 0710 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.05% to $104.65 per ton. Atilla Widnell, managing Director at Navigate Commodities, Singapore, stated that prices rose due to a limited supply of BHP's Jimblebar & Jingbao Fines. This left most Chinese mills represented state-owned China Mineral Resources Group with no choice but to purchase larger volumes of Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Fines. Widnell stated that the Pilbara fines were a key component of the underlying index for iron ore futures, which is used to benchmark them. This pushed up prices across the board, Widnell added. Navigate Commodities data showed that hot metal production in China, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has been increasing since mid-September, 2025. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, reported that steel mill profitability had gradually recovered, with some mills having resumed production. According to Mysteel, the increased iron ore price in recent years has accelerated investment?into new mining capacities, pushing global iron ore markets into a?decisive expansion phase, according to Mysteel. SteelHome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.19% week-on-week, to 145.5 million tonnes as of December 19. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have gained in popularity. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen. Rebar climbed 0.39%; hot-rolled coil 0.28%; wire rod 2.94%; and stainless steel 1.82%. ($1 = 7.0400 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Candidates of the opposition in Guinea's presidential election after coup
Here's a list of the candidates who will be challenging Guinea junta chief Mamady Doumbouya at Sunday's first presidential election since his coup in 2021. ABDOULAYE YERO BALDDE Balde, 60 years old, is the leader of?Democratic Front of Guinea(FRONDEG). He is an economist who holds degrees from Columbia University and the Sorbonne. In 2020, he left?Alpha Conde’s party to oppose Conde's bid for a second term. Conde won the election in 2010 but was overthrown in a coup in 2021. He now lives in exile. Balde was a former vice-governor of the central bank and minister for higher education. He is a Fulani, the largest ethnic group in Guinea, just like the exiled opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo who is not running for election and is also living in exile. Balde is a strong candidate who could capture an important share of the opposition vote. FAYA LANSANA MILLIMONO Millimono (63), the standard-bearer of the Liberal Bloc, initially backed Doumbouya’s junta. This led to strained ties with other parties, such as Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People. Later, he became a critic and reacted with a more aggressive stance after Doumbouya announced that he would not run for election. Millimono was a candidate in the 2015 presidential elections, and won around 1,4% of the votes against Conde. He holds a PhD from the University of Montreal in Educational Administration. IBRAHIMA ABE SYLLA Sylla was a 74-year-old member of the?parliament prior to the coup in 2021, which led to the dissolution of the?National Assembly. He was appointed energy minister by Doumbouya. However, he no longer holds that position. Sylla's New Generation for the Republic party (NGR) has a large following among the young people of the Basse-Guinee coast region, including the capital Conakry. He studied and lived in the United States. HADJA MAKALE CAMARA Camara is the sole woman running for the presidency. She is the president of Front for National Alliance and served as Foreign Affairs Minister under Conde between 2016 and 2017. Camara, a lawyer by profession, is running for the presidency for a second time. In 2020, Camara won 0.7% of the votes. ABDOULAYE - KOUROUMA Kourouma is the youngest candidate, at 42 years old, and is an economist from Russia. He was a member of parliament before the coup. He was close to Conde despite winning only 0.5% of the votes in the 2020 election. MOHAMED NABE Nabe is a relative newcomer to politics. He was trained as an economics at the London School of Economics, and he previously worked as a sales director for a large cement production company in Guinea. He is the leader of Alliance for Renewal and Progress. BOUNA KEITA Keita is a self-made 'diamond merchant' and leader of Rally for a Prosperous Guinea. He has run for the second time after gaining 0.8% in 2010. Keita is not considered a serious candidate. MOHAMED CHERIF HAIDARA Haidara is the only independent candidate besides Doumbouya. He is virtually unknown during this campaign. Reporting by Guinea Newsroom; Editing done by Portia, Crowe and Russell.
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Doumbouya, the Guinean president, is completing his journey from coup leader.
Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power four years ago in a coup, has revamped Guinea's mineral sector and launched an enormous iron ore project. He hopes that his achievements will ensure him victory in the presidential election meant to mark a return to civil rule. Doumbouya, who had vowed 'not to contest the vote on December 28th,' is expected cement his grip over power in West Africa after key rivals have been sidelined. Doumbouya, a former commander of special forces believed to be in early 40s, gained wide support after leading the September 2021 uprising against then-President Alpha Conde who had sparked a protest by seeking a controversial three term. According to Signal Risk, unlike neighbouring Sahel countries plagued by coups, jihadist insurgencies and economic reforms, Guinea has experienced relative stability, along with new mining sector investments and economic reforms. BAUXITE AND IRON ORE Simandou is home to the largest untapped iron ore deposits and bauxite reserve in the world. A massive mining project began there in November. Guinea, under Doumbouya's leadership, has followed the lead of its neighbours Niger and Burkina Faso, who are all military-led, in trying to gain more control over their mining operations to increase state revenues. In July, his transitional government revoked the license of EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation after a dispute over refinery. It transferred its assets to a State-owned firm. Western powers are faced with a dilemma. They could be pushed closer to China by denouncing the 'democratic backsliding,' said Benedict Manzin. He is a Middle East and Africa expert at Sibylline, a risk consultancy. He said that a successful transition of a coup leader into a civilian president would encourage other militaries to act in the same way. Manzin stated that "Doumbouya... seized the power and largely ignored the (West African bloc), ECOWAS, and domestic requests to quickly transition back to civil rule... (then), he secured his own elections... while the International Community largely overlooked how he came to power at all," "A Cinderella-like story for a military despot aspiring to power." PATH TO POWER Doumbouya, a Malinke ethnic from Kankan, in Guinea's eastern region, trained in Israel, Senegal and Gabon, before moving to France where he joined the French Foreign Legion. It was there that he met his wife, a French gendarme Lauriane Doumbouya. When he became president, he had 15 years' experience in the military, which included missions in Afghanistan and Central African Republic, as well as Ivory Coast and Djibouti. The decision to run for election is a complete reversal. In the original charter, junta leaders were barred from running for office. However, a referendum in September overturned that restriction. Doumbouya's campaign has focused on his achievements in infrastructure and his pledge to fight poverty and corruption. Gilles Yabi of the West African think-tank WATHI said: "The fact that the interim president is a contender...clearly demonstrates the objective to retain power." He said that "nothing will stop General Doumbouya from retaining power and the military around him." His government had proposed in 2022 a two-year transition to elections but failed to meet that deadline. Manzin stated that Doumbouya had taken measures to bolster support since then. Critics in the civil society accuse his government for limiting press freedom, preventing protests and stifling opposition activities. He also?pardoned Moussa dadis Camara, a former coup leader who was convicted for a stadium massacre in 2009 and still retains his support in the Guinee Forestiere area. Manzin stated that the Supreme Court was under pressure from Doumbouya to exclude opposition candidates. Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea's leading opposition figure, is in exile following a corruption trial. Conde, the former president, is also exiled and was disqualified at 85 due to a new limit on age. (Reporting and editing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Ros Russell; Guinea newsroom and Portia Crowe)
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Swiss stocks: Factors to be on the lookout for Monday
The following are the major factors that could affect Swiss stocks on Monday. HOLCIM The parties to the case reported on Monday that a court in Switzerland had decided to admit a lawsuit against Holcim, the Swiss cement manufacturer, which alleged the company was doing too little to reduce carbon emissions. The CEO of Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche said on Saturday that the price of new drugs in Switzerland will be affected by the deals between 'pharmaceutical companies' and Washington, which aim to lower the prices of medicines?in the United States. Statements of Company * Novartis announced on Friday that it and the U.S. Government had reached an agreement to lower drug prices in the U.S. Alcon announced on Friday that it had exercised its right to require Staar Surgical?to adjourn their special meeting?of shareholders, which will now be held on January 6. * Georg Fischer announced?on Friday that it will?propose Ton Buechner as a candidate to its board at the annual shareholders' meeting in 2026. ECONOMY Swiss November money supply due at 8am GMT SNB sight deposit due at 9am GMT (Reporting from Zurich and Gdansk Newsrooms)
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Swiss court admits Indonesian islanders climate claim against Holcim
Parties to the case announced on Monday that a court in Switzerland had decided to accept a legal complaint against Swiss cement manufacturer Holcim, which alleged the company was doing too little to reduce carbon emissions. Four residents from the low-lying Indonesian Island of Pari, whose sea level has been rising due to warmer temperatures, filed a complaint with the cantonal court in Zug, Switzerland, on January 20, 2023. Swiss Church Aid, a non-profit organization that is supporting the Pari 'case, announced the court had accepted the complaint. Holcim acknowledged in a press release that the court had accepted the case and said it intended to appeal. The court did not respond to a request for comment immediately. Swiss Church Aid claims that this is the first case in which a Swiss court has accepted a climate lawsuit brought against a large company. Holcim stated that it is 'fully committed to reaching net zero in 2050, and follows a rigorous science-based approach to achieve this goal. The company says that it has reduced its direct CO2 emissions by over 50% since 2015. Holcim is being sued by the?plaintiffs? for climate damage, flood protection and a reduction in CO2 emissions. Global Cement and Concrete Association reports that cement production is responsible for about 7% CO2 emissions worldwide. (Reporting and editing by Denis Balibouse, Dave Graham)
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Asia shares continue to gain, but bonds and yen are no longer friends
Asian shares rose broadly on Monday, tracking Wall Street's tech-driven gains. Meanwhile, the yen fell to new lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc due to higher interest rates. Even though it was a holiday-shortened weekend for most of the world, momentum funds continued to flow to commodities, precious metals, and equities ahead of delayed data which is expected to show that the U.S. economic growth has been strong in the third quarter. Median estimates predict an annualised increase of 3.2%. This is due to a sharp drop in imports following a surge earlier in the year before the introduction of tariffs. Analysts at BofA cautioned that their measure of investor confidence had moved to extreme bullish territory, at?8.5. This is often the prelude to an eventual reversal. In a note, they noted that "readings above 8.0 often precede pullbacks." Global equities declined a median 2.7% in the two months following, with a 63%?hit rate. Fund Manager Survey data shows the most positive sentiment in three-and-a half years. This is due to expectations of tariff and rate cuts, as well as a rise in the number of fund managers. S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq Futures are up 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.9% on Friday, continuing the bounce that began last week. A steep drop in the yen is expected to boost Japanese export earnings. The Bank of Japan increased rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%, and warned that more would be coming. This impacted government debt. The yields on 10-year government bonds soared by 8 basis points, to levels not seen since the year 1999. The minutes of the BOJ's meeting are due Wednesday. On Christmas Day, the head of Japan's central bank will speak to a Japanese Business Lobby. On Interception Watch The yen reached a new record low against the euro, at 184.90 and the Swiss franc, at 198.08. Investors were wary about testing the November high of 157.90, in case Tokyo intervened. Japanese officials have expressed their concern about one-way movements and warned against excessive decline. If the dollar breaks 158.00 above, it will target the 2025 high of 158.88 and then the 2024 top at 161.96. The dollar was stable on a basket currency at?98.725, after gaining 0.3% on Friday. South Korea's AI-related earnings optimism boosted the South Korean stock market by 1.7%, and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan gained 0.8%. The blue chips in China gained?0.8% while Singapore's main stock index rose 1%, reaching a new record high. The European equities market was quieter with the EUROSTOXX Futures, FTSE Futures, and DAX Futures all down 0.1%. Analysts at TD Securities reported that equity?markets experienced their highest weekly inflows ever at $98 billion, led by U.S. Equity funds. Chinese equity funds saw their third largest weekly inflow since 2025. Emerging markets also saw their biggest inflows in recent months. The flow of money into bonds slowed for the fourth week in a row. U.S. 10 year yields rose by 2 basis points to 4.169%. Silver, the star commodity in the commodities market, reached a new record of $69.44 an ounce. This brought the gains for the entire year to nearly 140%. Gold rose 1.3% to $4,394 per ounce on the same day. Oil prices increased after the U.S. intercepted and pursued another Venezuelan oil tanker on the weekend. This would be the third operation of this kind in less than two week. Brent crude oil rose 0.8%, to $60.96 per barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 0.8%, to $56.99 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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The US has intercepted a tanker of oil off Venezuela
Oil prices increased on Monday, after the U.S. announced that it had intercepted a tanker of oil in international waters near the Venezuelan coast. This has caused new supply uncertainty. Brent crude futures rose by 46 cents or 0.8% to $60.93 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 46 cents or 0.8% to $56.98. The market is now recognizing that the Trump Administration is taking a tough stance on the Venezuelan oil industry, said June Goh. She is the senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities. Goh said that the geopolitical news, along with the simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the background, had supported oil prices in a market which was otherwise fundamentally very bearish. Officials said on Sunday that the U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing a tanker near Venezuela in international waters. If successful, this would be the second operation of its kind?overthe weekend, and the third one in less than two week if it was successful. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. The geopolitical events that began with the?U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said that President Donald Trump announced a "total, complete" blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, and the subsequent developments in Venezuela. He said: "The market has lost hope that the U.S. mediated Russia-Ukraine talks will result in a lasting peace agreement anytime soon." The balance of risk is close to shifting to the upside for crude oil, given the recent developments that have helped to offset the ongoing concerns about oversupply. Brent and WTI both fell by about 1% in the last week, after falling about 4% during the week ending December 8. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, said that on Sunday the talks held between U.S. officials and European and Ukrainian officials in Florida over three days aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine focused on aligning position. He said that the meetings, as well as separate discussions with Russian negotiators, were productive. The top foreign policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, said that the changes made by Europe and Ukraine to the U.S. proposals have not improved the prospects for peace. Reporting by Jeslyn Leh in Singapore and Sam Li and Lewis Jackson, Beijing; Editing and rewriting by Sonali and Neil Fullick
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Dalian Iron Ore's gains continue as steel mill profits recover and demand increases
Dalian iron ore prices increased for the fifth consecutive session on Monday as a recovery in profitability at steelmills boosted demand, and a shortage of Pilbara Blend Fines tightened supply. By 0249 GMT, the most-traded contract for?May?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.26%. It was now worth 779 yuan (US$110.65) per metric ton. The benchmark January Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.38% to $104.3 per ton. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, reported that steel mill profitability had?recovered slowly, with some mills having resumed production. Galaxy Futures analysts said that the structural shortage of Pilbara Blend Fines is still unresolved and continues to support iron ore prices, as well as providing cost support for steel. China, which is the largest consumer and producer of steel in the world, has announced plans to implement a licensing system to regulate the export of the metal from 2026, due to the increased protectionist reaction worldwide. Galaxy expects exports to remain high until the license system is implemented. According to consultancy Mysteel, the increased iron ore price in recent years has accelerated investment in new mining capacities, pushing global iron ore markets into a decisive expansion phase. SteelHome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports?grew 1.19% on a week-to-week basis to 145.5 million tonnes as of December 19. China's benchmark loan prime rate remained unchanged in December for the seventh month running, indicating that authorities are not in a hurry to introduce new monetary easing. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also lost ground. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The price of rebar increased by 0.16%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.18%. Wire rods climbed 0.53%. Stainless steels rose by 1.39%. ($1 = 7.0405 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Andy Home: The ROI-EV Revolution continues, but the battery metals are losing their charge.
The third year has been tough for battery metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. All three markets are struggling to absorb the supply wave that followed the price boom of 2022.
The electric vehicle revolution continues. The demand for batteries, and the metals needed to make them work, is still rising at an accelerated pace.
It is only a matter time before the current glut of supply is absorbed by demand.
This was at least the hope.
Chinese companies are undergoing a technological revolution at the same time, as they work to create ever-more powerful batteries for ever-lower costs.
Battery chemistry is evolving fast and it is already apparent that not all battery metals will be winners in the fierce competition between materials.
CHINA POWERS UP
Electrification is currently a bumpy road. The U.S. president Donald Trump has reversed the Biden administration’s EV subsidies, and the European Union deferred the phase-out of combustion engine vehicles beyond 2035.
The momentum remains unabated. According to Rho Motion, global EV sales grew by 21% on an annual basis to reach 18.5 million cars in the first eleven months of 2025.
China continues to be the driving force behind the global technological shift. This year, the world's biggest EV market grew by 19% and accounted for 62% global sales.
No one should be surprised that Chinese companies are leading the charge in the battery chemistry revolution.
The Chinese EV market is now dominated by batteries using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry. These batteries are cheaper and safer than those that use a combination nickel, cobalt, and manganese.
LFP was responsible for 48% global EV batteries in 2017. Macquarie Bank has revised its forecast to expect that this share will rise to 65% in 2029. This is a significant increase from the previous 49%.
Nickel and Cobalt in the Slow Lane
It is clear that this news is not good for Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They are the two largest nickel and cobalt producers in the world.
Indonesia has not tempered its production growth in order to reflect the reality of new batteries, creating a tsunami surplus metal.
The country's nickel is increasingly being shipped to a London Metal Exchange warehouse (LME), rather than a battery-precursor plant.
LME warehouse stock - registered or off-warrantee - has exploded to 338.900 tons.
This is only the second month since 2021 that the LME nickel price has fallen below its long-term support of $15,000 per ton. It puts more pressure on Indonesian policymakers to curb the nickel boom in the country.
Cobalt prices are also in a similar situation of chronic oversupply. Congo stopped exports in February, and then introduced a quota-based system in October.
The slow implementation of new rules led to the complete stoppage of shipments of cobalt-based intermediates to Chinese refineries.
Congo's supply discipline could become a supply shock. This could be costly for a nickel-based metal that already struggles to maintain its share in battery chemistry.
The price volatility of cobalt and ethical issues associated with the artisanal mining industry in Congo are a concern for automakers.
The events of this year will only confirm these concerns and could accelerate attempts to remove cobalt from the equation for batteries.
LITHIUM DOMINANT ... FOR NOW
China's shift to?LFP (Lithium-Fluid-Phase) chemistry has reinforced its importance.
Adamas Intelligence, a consultancy, estimates that 60,900 tonnes of lithium was deployed on roads worldwide in September. This is a 25% increase year-on-year, which matches the growth of total battery deployment. Nickel and cobalt lagged behind with deployment growth rates of 10% and 15% respectively.
But lithium is also facing a new challenge.
The Chinese battery giant CATL is a pioneer in the development of sodium-ion cells. The latest version, Naxtra will almost match efficiency of LFP batteries, which are replacing NCM chemistries, and do so at a much lower cost.
Robin Zeng, the billionaire founder of CATL, believes that sodium-ion battery could replace?upto half of the market for LFP Batteries.
The metal is chosen by lithium producers for the power grid storage batteries. This market is growing rapidly.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, global installations of battery-based energy storage systems increased by 38% in the first ten months of 2025.
Ford Motors has announced a charge of $19.5 billion on EV investments. At the same time, it is committing to invest $2 billion in batteries for energy storage system.
HARD WIRED
The landscape of EV battery materials has changed dramatically since 2022 when the prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel were all surging, on the assumption that these three metals would be at core of electric mobility.
This is no longer true. The battery chemistry continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, thanks to 'unprecedented' research and development.
In 10 years, it is impossible to know what will power electric vehicles.
It is certain that copper will remain essential for wiring vehicles and charging infrastructure. Aluminium is likely to remain a popular choice for body frames due to its lightweight.
The ultimate winners of the EV revolution may not be the metals that directly power the car, but those who enable it.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist. You like this column? Check out Open Interest for data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)