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Markets in H1 - Down with the dollar and up with guns

Investors knew that after Donald Trump's radical election promises, markets would be bumpy in 2018, as he returns to lead the largest economy of the world. The dollar's dramatic drop was not predicted by anyone, but it has been a surprise to many.

Many key markets will look calm if you simply run through the numbers of the year without tracking their journey.

The VIX is barely moving, and world stocks are at records highs.

Look closer, and you'll see that all these markets have experienced extreme swings in the last six-month period - including the dollar.

The reserve currency of the world is down by over 10%. This is the biggest drop in the first half since the advent of free-floating currency in the early 1970s. Gold, on the other hand, has seen its largest rise in the last 25 years.

Vincent Mortier is chief investment officer of Amundi Asset Management, Europe's largest asset management company. He attributes this to Trump's "Big Beautiful" fiscal plan, which will keep the U.S. debt at $36.2 trillion and the deficit at 6-7 percent.

The U.S. dollar is expected to continue falling, but more slowly, according to Mortier.

The struggles of the "Magnificent 7" tech giants have also been eye-catching. The "Magnificent Seven" have been the cash cows of portfolios for many years. However, this year they have been left in dust by a 20% rise in Chinese competitors and a nearly 70% increase in European weapon makers.

Trump is also responsible for the latter action. Trump's signal that the U.S. would scale back Europe’s military protection forces the region, and other NATO member states to rearm.

The $140 trillion global bonds market was initially intrigued by Germany's historic proposal to overhaul its self-imposed credit brake in order to allow higher defense spending, but long-term U.S. borrowing costs and record-high Japanese interest rates have driven the majority of moves since.

Most people outside of the US will have lost money on benchmark U.S. bonds this year.

In May, the 30-year Treasury yields soared to their highest level since 2007, but they are now back down at 4.8%. Switzerland's interest rates were also lowered to zero in this month.

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Dollar's fall has also led to a 12.5% increase in the euro, a nearly 8% rise in the Japanese yen and a 13.5% increase in the Swiss franc. The dollar's slump has given emerging markets the chance to shine.

Trump's reengagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin helped the rouble soar by 40%. However, it is still heavily restricted by Western Sanctions and lags behind the cedi's 42% decline in Ghana's gold-producing country.

Eastern Europe's currencies, such as the Hungarian forint, Czech crown, and Polish zloty are all 13-17% stronger. Taiwan's dollar rose 8% in two days only last month, and Mexico's peso as well as emerging market currency debts are all enjoying double-digit growth for the year despite the trade war trauma.

Pramol Dhawan is PIMCO’s head of emerging markets portfolio management. He said that the capital shift from U.S. assets to emerging and other market assets was the largest in the past two decades.

"We still believe we are at the beginning of this."

The bottom of the FX list includes familiar currencies like the peso from Argentina and the lira from Turkey. The Turkish lira is down by nearly 11%, and a lot of this happened after the main political opponent of Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan was arrested in March.

As usual, Bitcoin has been volatile. Bitcoin soared almost 20% after Trump's election, then fell nearly 30% as his plans to create a U.S. crypto reserve were not well received. It has now spent the past three months clawing back all of that money.

The price of oil has also fluctuated. Oil prices have also fluctuated. In April, they fell 30% to under $60 per barrel after Trump's tariff plan fueled global recession fears. But this month, when Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, it briefly rose above $80.

Good as Gold

Copper defied global economic worries and jumped 11%. However, it is the precious metals which have shone. Silver and gold are neck-and-neck, both up 24%. Platinum is up almost 50%, after a series of 10-year highs.

It won't leave much time to take a breather in the second half. Trump wants his "Big Beautiful Bill", which he calls the "Big Beautiful Bill", to be passed through Congress before Independence Day, July 4, while his global trade war ceasefire ends five days later.

As the deadline nears, and there has been little progress in establishing mutually agreed baseline levies, it is unclear how long the markets will remain numb.

(source: Reuters)