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Coffee companies launch satellite-based tracking program to track deforestation
JDE Peet’s, one of the participating companies, announced in a statement that they were launching a system to track the deforestation associated with coffee cultivation. The Coffee Canopy Partnership uses satellite imagery provided by Airbus in combination with artificial intelligence models to map coffee farms, and identify areas where forest loss is nearby. The aim of the project is to identify the landscape correctly and work with local governments and communities to restore forests, and to prevent future deforestation. Tchibo, Louis Dreyfus Company and commodity traders Neumann 'Kaffee Group, Touton, and Sucafina are also participating in the program. The companies stated that the system would first cover 'East Africa', which includes Ethiopia, Tanzania?, Kenya?, Uganda?, Burundi? and Rwanda?. They aim to achieve worldwide coverage of coffee-growing areas by 2027. The EU Deforestation Regulation, which is expected to come into effect on December 30, 2020 for large companies and on June 30, 2027 for micro- and small businesses, will prevent coffee from being sold on EU markets if it has been grown on land classified as forest since December?2020. JDE Peets said: "This could exclude millions of smallholder farmers from important markets, despite the fact that they practice sustainable farming methods, because current maps classify their shade-grown coffee or agroforestry land incorrectly as forest." The initiative will also address the "historical lack of precise mapping data which has often resulted in coffee farm... being misidentified as a natural forest." Companies said that the system would be open to consultation for farmers, governments, and the coffee industry. (Reporting and editing by Bill Berkrot.)
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Gold prices rise on bargain hunting after a one-week low; U.S. Iran talks are in the spotlight
Investors are awaiting a possible resume of U.S. - Iranian peace talks. By 1:40 pm EDT (1740 GMT), spot gold had risen 1% in the previous session. It recorded its biggest daily loss since the 26th of March on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled at $4,753.00, up 0.7%. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said, "Perceived bargain hunting after Tuesday's losses also features in (gold and) precious metals market." Geopolitically, Iran has seized two ships on Wednesday in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. blockade of Iran will continue. A source familiar with the issue said he hadn't set a timeline for the ceasefire. However, there was no sign that peace talks would resume. At least three Israeli drone strikes in Lebanon have killed at least 3 people, adding to the pressure on the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The gold price is slightly higher on the hopes that Donald Trump's comments about the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that the situation was very uncertain and tenuous. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began -on February 28 - gold prices have fallen by about 11%, as 'rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears. Although bullion can be used as a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates reduce demand for the metal. Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chief Kevin Warsh, said on Tuesday that he made no promises to Trump regarding interest rate cuts as he sought to reassure?U.S. Senators considering his nomination should know that he would act independently from the White House while pursuing a broad range of reforms. Silver spot rose by 1.4%, to $77.80 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.1%, to $2,079.80. Palladium increased 1.3%, to $1,553.43. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao in Bengaluru, Nia William and Tasimzahid; reporting by Ishaan arora from Bengaluru)
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Union executive: US-based Virtus, in partnership with an Indian partner, will restart Congo copper miner Chemaf by 2027.
A union official has revealed that the U.S.-based Virtus 'Minerals' and its Indian partner Lloyds Metals & Energy plan to restart full production in Congolese cobalt and copper miner Chemaf by January 2027, following a Washington-backed acquisition. Virtus purchased the mines of Chemaf in March for $30m and agreed to take on Chemaf’s $900m debt. The Chemaf acquisition is the first deal on the ground under the U.S. - Democratic Republic of Congo partnership aimed at redirecting critical mineral supplies away from China and towards Western markets. Arum Awat is a Virtus executive who sent a memo to the staff on Monday. In a press release, Virtus declined to give a timeframe for the joint venture. It said that it would retain Chemaf’s employees and restart production quickly after years of uncertainty?at the company. The statement stated that "our?priority" is to complete everything as quickly as possible. This week, it was reported that Virtus had overstated their mining experience by highlighting the execution risks. Only PRODUCING MINE to Suspend Output The new owners informed workers in a Tuesday meeting that they would temporarily suspend production on the Chemaf site in Lubumbashi for up to two month for maintenance. Lokosha stated that the new owners have told them they plan to begin full production simultaneously in Kolwezi and Lubumbashi by January of next year. Awat wrote to his employees that the move was intended to improve operations and complete the Mutoshi copper and cobalt projects which had been delayed due to financial and operational issues. The 'Mutoshi Copper and Cobalt Project near Kolwezi, has been in a standstill since 2019. Processing was suspended due to weak cobalt and financing restrictions. This left the asset mostly dormant prior to the takeover. According to Lokosha and the note to staff, A.N. According to Lokosha, and a note sent to employees, Subramaniyam is the new CEO. The note stated that Lloyds Metals specialists will be working with Chemaf in an advisory role, and Chemaf's leadership will continue to remain in place in order to maintain continuity.
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Twenty suspected Boko Haram militants killed in attacks on northeast Nigeria
A local official reported that suspected Boko Haram terrorists on motorbikes had stormed and killed at least?20 people in two villages located in northeast Nigeria. The attacks are part of an offensive by Boko Harama and its Islamic State offshoot?ISWAP who have intensified deadly attacks against?military base and villages in Nigeria’s insurgency hit northeast. Mada Saidu said that the gunmen who attacked Pubagu, Mayo-Ladde, and Askira-Uba districts, in Borno state and the neighbouring adamawa state, on Tuesday afternoon, had beaten back local vigilantes. In Pubagu, at least 11 people died and in Mayo-Ladde, nine. Saidu reported that homes and shops had been?torched and food looted. Aid groups claim that Islamist militants have waged an insurgency for 17 years in order to create an 'Islamic state' in northeast Nigeria, killing thousands of people and forcing at least two million to flee their homes. This is despite major military campaigns to eradicate them. (Reporting Adewale?Kolawole from Maiduguri, Writing by Elisha?Bala-Gbogbo, Editing by Gareth Jones.)
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Six suspects of plotting a coup in Nigeria plead not guilt as the court adjourns their trial
Six former security officials accused of plotting to violently 'overthrow President Bola Tinubu’s government last year, pleaded not guilty on Wednesday. A court in Abuja adjourned the trial until April 27. The prosecution filed 13 criminal cases against a retired general of the army and others, for treason and financing terrorism. Seventh suspect is a former governor of a state who remains at large. The suspects denied all charges at their arraignment in a federal court. Judge Joyce Abdulmalik adjourned trial to April 27. Lateef Fagbemi, Attorney-General and Justice Minister, requested a speedy?trial citing the "gravity" of the case. Abdulmalik granted this request soon after the pleas had been entered. The judge refused to grant oral bail, and instructed the defence lawyers to submit formal written motions. She ordered that the suspects would be held in custody by the Department of State Services (DSS) pending trial. The trial is the'most serious treason' prosecution since Tinubu came to power in 2023. It reflects a drive to tighten up internal security at a time when economic strains are increasing, Islamist militant attacks in the North have increased, and there are political tensions. Tinubu, in October,'suddenly' replaced the military leadership. An aide described this as a "strenuous" shake-up to boost security. (Reporting and writing by Camillus Eboh, Editing by Gareth Jones).
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Metalshub, an EU-funded agency, is working with Metalshub to create a European platform for critical minerals trading
Metalshub, a digital platform funded in part by the EU, and an agency that is partially funded by the EU are working on establishing regional critical mineral prices separate from those of dominant producer China to allow the financing of new projects. The European Union, United States, and other Western countries strive to set their own benchmark prices of critical minerals in order to reduce their dependency on China. China accounts for 90% of the global production of rare earths processed, which are vital for electronics, clean energy and defence. Bernd Schaefer said that "Europe lacks a deep, transparent, and EU-relevant benchmark for critical minerals...the lack of transparency is an absolute deal breaker" for many investors. A number of new mines and facilities that process minerals are struggling to get financing because the outlook is uncertain. Prices, which are set largely in China and fluctuate wildly, have been unpredictable. Metalshub, a privately-held German group, and the public-private partnership, EIT 'RawMaterials (with more than 300 companies and academics involved in the industry), are working together to expand Metalshub's platform. This includes adding spot trading for rare earths and critical minerals, and developing reliable price indices. Metalshub's Managing Director Frank Jackel stated that the company could technically launch trading right away, but it would need approval from regulators and policymakers. Schaefer declined to name the companies or provide feedback from those who were spoken to. Schaefer stated that they were aiming to have the pilot project running within 12 months. Metalshub provides trading services for raw materials such as nickel and alumina for the aluminium industry, materials that are used in steel production. It was also used to conduct online graphite and lithium auctions. Jackel stated that Metalshub can host transactions but an index of prices would be outsourced in order to maintain credibility and comply with regulatory frameworks. He said that the markets for critical minerals remain "fragmented and opaque" and are heavily dependent on bi-lateral negotiations and price assessments based on limited data collected manually. Schaefer stated that the EU demand aggregation platform launched last week for critical materials is not designed to set regional prices which are crucial to underpin local production. On April 13, the EU launched its Energy and Raw Materials Platform's section on critical minerals. The EU aims to link buyers and suppliers of 17 EU strategic materials, but it is up to the two parties to finalise any trades. Some have pointed out that there is little?liquidity outside of China in the critical minerals trade, but Schaefer and Jackel say that it's enough to set benchmark prices in Europe. Schaefer stated that there are currently enough data points in Europe from recent transactions to establish a representative price for rare earths, as an example. Schaefer and Jackel stated that the initiative would start in Europe but would include other Western nations. (Reporting and editing by Veronica Brown, Alexander Smith and Eric Onstad)
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Oil gains and stock prices rise as ceasefire is tested
Wall Street stocks rose on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire extension. Oil prices also increased as Iran broke the fragile truce and seized two cargo ships at the Strait of Hormuz. A broad rally lifted all three major U.S. stock indexes, while gold?advanced?and U.S. Treasury Yields dropped. "Things have slowed down a bit, so (investors can) focus on the economy for a while and not worry about the bombs that are flying in the Middle East," said Paul Nolte. He is a senior wealth advisor & Market Strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, located in Elmhurst. There's some concern about the fact that there is a ceasefire but that it hasn't been resolved. It only delays a decision." Iran's Revolutionary Guards seize two ships for maritime violations, just hours after Trump agreed that the ceasefire would be extended until?negotiations were concluded. The U.S. stock market, which was initially impacted by the war against Iran, has since recovered. Both the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, have reached new highs in recent sessions. Geopolitical uncertainties persist and a prolonged period with high oil prices is a danger. According to transcripts, about two thirds of S&P 500 companies who have reported quarterly earnings in the last few months have expressed concern about energy prices. The first-quarter earnings season has begun amid high expectations. According to the latest LSEG data, analysts currently expect S&P 500 earnings growth of 14.4% year-on-year for the period January-March. The first quarter was before the Iran War. Nolte said, "I do not think that we will feel the full impact of the war on earnings until we receive second quarter reports next July." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 364.21 or 0.75% to 49,513.59; the S&P 500 gained 59.43 or 0.84% to 7,123.44; and the Nasdaq Composite increased 283.12 or 1.17% to 24,543.08. The European share price was slightly lower after the extension of the U.S. - Iran truce. Middle East turmoil continued to affect markets, and investors weighed corporate earnings. Since the start of the conflict, dozens of international companies have announced price increases or withdrawn their guidance. MSCI's global stock index rose by 3.98 points or 0.37% to 1,070.44. The STOXX 600 pan-European index dropped 0.23% while the FTSEurofirst 300 broad index in Europe fell 6.06 points or 0.25%. Emerging market stocks dropped 8.34 points or 0.52% to 1,607.14. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan ended lower by 0.57% at 822.53, whereas Japan's Nikkei gained?236.69 or 0.40% to 59585.86. Amid lingering geopolitical concerns, the dollar edged higher against euro. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.06% at 98.44. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.11% to $1.1728. The dollar fell 0.09% against the Japanese yen to 159.23. Bitcoin gained 3.97%, reaching $78,750.99. Ethereum rose by 3.57%, to $2400.37. Investors remain cautious after the extension of the ceasefire. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 0.6 basis points from 4.292% to 4.286% late Tuesday. The 30-year bond rate fell 0.9 basis point to 4.8887%, from 4.898% on Tuesday. The 2-year bond yield, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve, increased 1.3 basis points from late Tuesday to 3.792%. The oil prices rose following reports of attacks against container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude climbed 2.09% to $91.54 per barrel while Brent rose 2.15% to $100.58 a barrel. The gold price rose as geopolitical uncertainty eased and the pressure to liquidate metals decreased. Gold spot rose by 0.45%, to $4.732.98 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.93% to $4.742.20 per ounce.
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Gold prices rise on the drop in Treasury yields and bargain-hunting
On?Wednesday, gold?rose about 1 percent after falling to a more than a week-low in the previous session. This was due to the fact that longer-dated U.S. Treasury rates fell as well as bargain-hunting as investors waited for a possible resume of U.S. - Iranian peace talks. By 9:42 am EDT (1342 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.8% to $4,749.61 an ounce after earlier rising 1%. It recorded its biggest daily loss on Tuesday since March 26. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery rose 1% to $4 767.70. The gold price is experiencing a "bit of respite" as the rates on the curve have dropped and investors are hoping that Donald Trump's statements about the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategy for TD Securities. He said that the situation was very uncertain and tenuous. Iran seized on Wednesday two ships in the Strait of Hormuz which is responsible for 20% of world oil supplies, after U.S. president Donald Trump called off the attacks indefinitely so that Tehran could come up with an unified peace offer. Peace talks have not resumed. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell by 0.24%. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst at Kitco Metals. He said that the precious metals market also exhibited a perception of bargain-hunting following Tuesday's losses. Since the beginning of 'the war' on February 28, gold prices have dropped by close to 11 percent, as rising oil costs have increased inflation fears. Higher interest rates reduce demand for non-yielding gold, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation. Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve's chief nominee, said that he made no promises about interest rate cuts to Trump on Tuesday. He was trying to reassure U.S. senators who were considering his confirmation. Silver spot rose 1.6%, to $77.92 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.1%, to $2,079.21. Palladium increased 1.5%, to $1,556.49. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)
Are central banks selling Treasuries to the public? McGeever
Are central banks selling treasuries in light of the controversial U.S. war in the Middle East? It's likely yes, but complicated.
The New York Federal Reserve has just lowered the foreign-owned Treasuries in its custody to the lowest level in 16 years, below $3 trillion. This indicates that foreign central banks are selling at an increasing?rapid rate.
The decline in Fed 'custody'?holdings has been eye-catching, as I noted last week. Deutsche Bank strategists estimated that the fall of $75 billion in the four-week period ending March 19, indicated a net selling of $60 billion by central banks. This would be some of the most aggressive sales ever.
The official U.S. Treasury International Capital figures - which are the gold standard data for foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries – show that central bank sales abroad were minimal last year, but that net purchases were the highest in 13 years in January.
What is it then?
Selling or shifting?
Fed custody data can be a good?proxy' for foreign central bank and their Treasuries. But it is not perfect.
The vast majority of the custody holdings are foreign central bank totals. However, they also include quasi-official entities like sovereign wealth funds and multilateral organizations.
Fed custody changes don't always reflect the amount or even whether central banks are purchasing or selling. Custody holdings, for example, plummeted by $238 billion in the past year, suggesting that central banks were selling U.S. debt at a breakneck pace.
Official TIC data revealed that the net sales by foreign central banks of Treasury notes and bonds last year amounted to only $34 billion. This is less than 1% of the $3.5 trillion in their vault.
How can we square that?
Changes in exchange rates and bond prices can explain changes in custody data. Some of the "selling", however, can be explained by central banks moving their holdings from U.S. jurisdictions to other parts of their investment network or non-U.S. jurisdictions.
Brad Setser, of the Council on Foreign Relations, has long argued that the recent decline of China's holdings in Treasuries is partially explained by the fact Beijing has been funneling large quantities of foreign assets into its state-owned banks. China's actual holdings are likely to be much higher than what the official figures suggest.
Footprints shrinking at nominal highs
The official TIC data will be released in May, and we'll know if central banks sold in March. The decline in custody holdings and the weak foreign demand for recent Treasury auctions as well as the falling bond prices suggest that they did.
It's still worth remembering that, according to the latest official TIC data published in mid-March, foreign central banks purchased a net of $50.6 billion in Treasuries during January. It was a rare instance where the?official' demand was greater than private sector demand. This was also the second-largest monthly purchase by central banks in 13 years.
The private sector is a 'big buyer of U.S. Bonds in recent years, with investors investing nearly $1 trillion over the calendar years of 2024 and 2025. This easily offsets the $61 billion net selling by central banks.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at an all-time high. In the last 12 months, foreign investors owned $9.23 trillion in U.S. Government debt. This included $7.78 trillion in bonds and notes and $1.45 trillion in bills. All of these are record highs.
As a percentage of all Treasuries, however, foreign ownership continues to decline. Morgan Stanley analysts say that in the fourth quarter last year it dropped to 32% - the lowest level since 1997. However, this'share' had been flatlining at around 33-34% ever since the pandemic.
The central banks will likely sell Treasuries at a margin, not in large quantities. It's not yet.
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(source: Reuters)