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Investors on edge as they await data and central bank meetings
The dollar dipped to near two-month lows as Asian stocks fell on Tuesday. Investors were cautious ahead of the release of several U.S. economic data points, such as the jobs report. These reports may be used to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve policy in the coming year. Bitcoin, which?hit an all-time low of $56,407.53 in the previous session, was also under pressure due to the defensive mood. Safe haven gold slid to eight-week highs, and was bought at $4,307.69 an ounce. This is up 0.15% for the day. Investors are watching the U.S. combined employment report for October and for November, due on Tuesday. They will also be looking at the inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday. However, a few key details may not be available because the longest government shut down in history prevented data from being collected. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1% at the opening of trading. Tokyo's Nikkei index and South Korea benchmark index both dropped over 1%. Nasdaq and European futures both fell by 0.5%, signaling a possible shaky opening. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of?Saxo. He said that the market treats this week's data as a'mini reset' to the U.S. macro-narrative, since the jobs, retail sales, and inflation numbers are all coming in a short window, which can quickly?reprice the rates. The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected, and forecast one more cut in 2026. Markets are pricing at least two additional rate cuts next year. Chanana explained that if the data are mixed and slightly softer, the narrative of a soft landing will remain intact. However, it might not be the backdrop for a large risk-on rally. The real risk is a hawkish shock. If inflation or jobs prints hotter, then yields will rise and risk assets - especially long-term growth – will feel it first. As the term of Fed Chair Jerome Powell ends in May, speculation has been rampant about a potential frontrunner. The expectation of a more dovish Fed chairman has also increased bets on rate cuts in 2019. This week, attention will be focused on the policy decisions of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The BoE will likely cut rates while the BOJ will likely hike. There is a general consensus that the ECB's rates will stay the same. The euro is at $1.1752 after reaching its highest level in currencies since October's start. Sterling was slightly weaker, at $1.3369. The dollar index?which compares the U.S. dollar to six other currencies remained stable at 98.295. However, it remained near its lowest point in almost two months. Early Asian hours saw the Japanese yen rise to 155.07 per U.S. Dollar. The markets have already priced in a rate increase, so the focus will be on clues as to what is coming?in 2026. The market's reaction will be determined by the nuances in the BOJ communication, and whether Governor (Kazuo Ueda) can give a hawkish impression while not being able fully to commit on the timing of future hikes," said Gregor Hirt. The BOJ may choose to emphasize data dependency and assess the impact of the hike before signaling any further actions, which the markets could interpret as dovish or cautious. Oil prices dropped in commodities as investors weighed disruptions related to escalating U.S. - Venezuelan tensions, oversupply fears and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine deal. Brent crude futures dropped 0.4% to $60.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.39% to $56.6 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than 4% in the last week due to expectations of an oil surplus worldwide by 2026. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Oil prices fall on Ukraine talks and weak China data
The oil prices dropped in the early trade on Tuesday. This was a continuation of previous sessions'?losses as prospects of a Russia-Ukraine deal seemed to?strengthen, raising expectations for a possible?easing sanctions. Brent?crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.40% to $60.32 a bar by 0101 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $56.60 a bar, down 22 cents or 0.39%. U.S. officials said that the U.S. offered NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine during talks with its president in Berlin. This unprecedented move sparked hope in some European capitals, that the?talks are drawing closer to negotiations to end the conflict. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that soft?Chinese data released over night further increased concerns about global?demand not being strong enough to absorb the recent growth in supply. Official data released on Monday showed that China's factory production growth has slowed down to its lowest level in 15 months. Retail sales grew at the slowest rate since December '2022, when COVID-19 was a pandemic. Data raised concerns about China's strategy to rely on exports in order to offset weak domestic demand. A cooling economy will further increase demand in the world's biggest buyer of oil. The use of electric cars is already increasing the petroleum consumption. These factors have offset any concerns about supply following the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker last week off the coasts of Venezuela. Analysts and traders said that a glut in floating storage, and an increase in Chinese purchases from Venezuela ahead of sanctions also limit the impact on the market. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Colleen howe)
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South Africa increases coal exports after Colombia ban
South African miners have increased thermal coal exports after Colombia, the top supplier, banned shipments to Israel in August. Data from Kpler LSEG, and DBX Commodities revealed this. Colombia and South Africa are among Israel's loudest critics. The South American nation issued a presidential decree that enacted the export ban, after accusing Israel for killing tens-of-thousands in Gaza, including children. South Africa accused Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice. Israel's Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu rejected this claim. Data from Kpler shows that Colombian coal exports into Israel fell to zero during the three-month period ending November after Bogota redoubled its efforts to ban and blocked supplies under long term deals. South Africa's exports increased by 87% in the three-month period ending November, to 474,000 tons, on an annual basis. It is expected to ship 170,000 tons of goods this month. The South African Revenue Service's latest data showed that coal exports to Israel increased 20% in the three months ending October, to 667.442 tons - the highest three-month period for the last two years. Patrick Bond, Director of the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg, who tracks South African coal exports to Israel, said: "Four words describe this profound hypocrisy. Talk left, walk right." Bond stated that more than a dozen South African based coal exporters had been shipping electricity grade coal to Israel since 2023. Kpler data showed that all cargoes Israel imported since September were from South Africa. The South African mines ministry has not responded to requests for comment. Trade Minister Parks Tau stated last year that sanctions imposed on Israel could expose the country to legal challenges under World Trade Organization regulations. Colombia, a member of the WTO, has also not faced any challenges following its implementation. SOUTH AFRICA EXPORTS SURGE Kpler data shows that South Africa's coal exports to Israel have increased over the past four years. By 2025, its coal exports to Israel will be at their highest level since 2017. Its share of the seaborne coal market in Israel is expected to triple from levels in 2024 to 55%. According to data, Colombia will account for 42 percent of Israel's 2,000,000 tons of coal imports in this year. The data shows that Russia exported just one cargo weighing 55,000 tons in 2024. This represents less than 3%. Alexandre Claude of DBX Commodities in London said: "I expect that the trend of Colombian imports to Israel will remain near zero over the short- to mid-term." "Colombia is re-directing a little more coal to other buyers." He said that the country's portfolio is already highly diversified. Israel's energy and economy ministries have not responded to requests for comment. Israel Electric Co. senior official said that the country will stop using coal for its major energy source by 2027. "The coal era in Israel is over." The official stated that we will stop importing the coal and instead use natural gas for our main energy source. Coal will only be used as a back-up in an emergency. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore, Wendell Roelf and Steven Scheer respectively in Cape Town, Jerusalem and Cape Town; Additional reporting from Nelson Banya at Cape Town; Editing done by Jamie Freed).
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Imperial Oil raises its 2026 spending and output forecast to boost cash flow and cut costs
Imperial Oil Canada announced on Monday that it will increase its capital expenditure and upstream production by?2026. The company is doubling down on high-return oil sands projects in order to reduce costs?and create a stronger cash flow. Oil companies are focusing more on efficiency and high-return projects, and less on large new developments. In September, the oil producer said it would 'cut about 20% of its staff by end-2027. This is part of a restructuring which will reduce its Calgary presence amid lower 'crude prices due to higher OPEC+ production and trade policy uncertainties. "Our 2026 Plan builds on Imperial's strong foundation and positions Imperial to structurally increase cash flow by moving?towards unit and volume cash cost targets in Kearl and Cold Lake," CEO John Whelan said. Imperial, which owns major oil sands assets across Canada including Cold Lake Kearl Syncrude and Syncrude sees capital and exploration expenses for '2026 between C$2.0 billion and C$2.2billion, an increase from C$1.9billion to C$2.1billion estimated for this year. The company expects upstream production to range between?441,000 and?460,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with?433,000 to?456,000 boepd?it predicted for 2025. It expects to?throughput be between 395,000-405,000 barrels a day on the downstream front. This is down from 405,000-415, 000 barrels a day. The reason for this is planned turnaround activities at its Sarnia, and Strathcona, refineries. Reporting by Yagnoseni das and Varun sahay in Bengaluru, Editing by Vijay Kishore & Shailesh kuber
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Washington State flash flood warnings are issued after a levee rupture
Authorities announced on Monday that a levee break in Washington State following heavy rains has resulted in a flash flood alert and evacuation orders. National Weather Service?said?it issued a Flash Flood Warning after a failure of the Desimone levee in Tukwila, along the Green River about five miles from downtown Seattle. The National Weather Service said the 'waters are likely to be heading towards Interstate 405, which is a major road, and that an evacuation notice has been issued for a large part of King County. A social media message from the'service said: "Leave this area immediately if you find yourself there." The NWS stated that "conditions are dangerous, and access routes could be lost at any moment." Washington National Guard announced that it would be sending Guard members to King County. Over the weekend, the Guard helped flood-affected residents in the western part of Washington state. Levees have been breached in?Washington State for days, after torrential rains flooded a large swath of the Pacific Northwest. Rains began in the Pacific Northwest after a series of atmospheric riverstorms, which were vast?airborne?currents of dense moist air that had been sucked inland from the ocean. This included parts of northern Idaho and western Montana. Some areas received up to 20 inches of rainfall over a period of one week.
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Report: Chile copper mining is the most expensive in America, and this will discourage new investment.
According to a report published by the Chilean Copper Commission on Monday, Chile's copper industry has significantly higher operating costs than its?regional rivals, which could limit its ability to attract new investment, despite having?strong? geological resources. The study examined 67 greenfield copper project across the Americas and found that Chile has the highest capital intensity of all the countries studied for medium-capacity processing facilities, while ranking second for large-scale operations. Chile's energy costs for grinding range between $2.4 and $3 per metric ton processed. This is the highest cost in the region. * Labor costs in the country are lower than all regional competitors, with an average of $0.90 per tonne in medium-sized plants and $1.08 in large facilities. * The lower ore grade in Chilean deposits requires processing greater?mineral volume, increasing energy consumption as well as operational costs. * Chile's electricity rate is 31.3% more expensive than Peru's, and 35.2% higher than the United States. This is due to Chile's dependence on thermal power and its high transmission costs. According to the employment data in the report, there are 6,000 technical professionals affected by the?labor shortage every year. Reporting by Fabian Cambero, Writing by Kylie Madry
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Health ministry reports that Israeli forces killed a Palestinian teenager in West Bank.
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, an Israeli soldier shot and killed a 16-year old Palestinian on Monday during a raid in the town of 'Tuqu'. This is the latest fatal incident in the recent violence that has erupted in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. According to a report from the Palestinian state-run news agency WAFA, citing the Tuqu' Town Council's head, the boy was shot after Israeli forces gathered late Monday in the town centre and started firing "indiscriminately". According to the report, Ammar Yaser Sabah was shot by the military with a live bullet in the chest. The report said that he was taken to hospital, but sadly he did not survive. The Israeli military informed? The Israeli military told? that soldiers used riot dispersal methods and then responded with fire after being pelted with rocks. The military said that the incident is being reviewed. Since the beginning of the two-year Gaza war in October 2023, violence has increased in the West Bank. Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians have 'increased sharply', while the military has tightened movement restrictions and conducted sweeping raids across several cities. According to the United Nations, more than 1,000 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank from October 7, 2023 until November 14, 2025. In the West Bank, 59 Israelis were killed over the same time period. According to official Palestinian statistics, 53 Palestinian minors were killed by Israeli forces this year in the West Bank. The West Bank is home for 2.7 million Palestinians, who enjoy limited autonomy under the?Israeli occupation. There are hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have settled in the West Bank. Many world powers consider Israel's settlements, which are located on land that it captured during a war in 1967, illegal. In addition, numerous U.N. Security Council Resolutions have called for Israel to cease?all settlement activities. Israel denies that the settlements are illegal, citing historical and biblical ties to the land. Israeli forces have cleared refugee camps forcing thousands of Palestinians to leave their homes. They are also maintaining the longest presence they've had in certain West Bank cities since decades. Human Rights Watch charged Israel with war crimes and crimes of humanity in November over forced expulsions it claimed to have occurred in the West Bank. Israel denies that it has committed such crimes. Reporting by Ali Sawafta, Pesha Magd and Aidan Lewis; writing by Pesha Magd. Editing by Aidan Lewis.
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US and Mexico sign new agreement regarding Tijuana river sewage crisis.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a statement Monday announcing that the United States and Mexico have signed a new agreement to address 'the ongoing Tijuana river sewage crisis. Mexico and the U.S. have been at odds for decades over the issue of Mexican sewage flowing across the border into the Tijuana River and then into the Pacific Ocean. The EPA stated that the 'new agreement' saw the U.S. - and Mexican Sections - of the International Boundary and Water Commission, agree on infrastructure projects, research and enhanced monitoring. "And planning for the operation and maintenance" of critical systems and sites, which will 'account for the future population growth in Tijuana, the EPA stated. Earlier this summer, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Mexican Environment Minister Alicia Barcena in which Mexico 'agreed' to spend $93 million on improvements to Tijuana sewage systems and commit to a number of projects that would account for population growth and maintenance. (Reporting and writing by Ryan Jones; Editing by Franklin Paul).
Sources: U.S. Treasury rejects Xtellus' bid for Lukoil Assets
Four people familiar with the matter said that the U.S. Treasury rejected an 'offer' from a group headed by U.S. Bank Xtellus Partners to buy foreign assets of Russian Oil Company Lukoil.
Xtellus was in a race with Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Abu Dhabi Group International Holding Company. MOL from Hungary and the U.S. Private Equity firm Carlyle are also still involved.
The U.S. Treasury declined comment.
Lukoil was willing to sell its assets in October after the U.S. sanctioned it and Kremlin controlled rival Rosneft to encourage Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine.
Over a dozen companies bid on the assets of Lukoil, valued at approximately $22 billion. The assets include upstream gas and oil projects, refinery and more than 2,00 filling stations in Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Sources said that Xtellus offered to arrange a swap between Lukoil securities owned by U.S. 'investors, in a cashless transaction? to return them to Lukoil for the Russian firm's global assets.
Sources said that Lukoil preferred the Xtellus offer, but that it was difficult to implement. Xtellus advises bid partners Todd Boehly, an American billionaire, and Allied Investment Partners, a group of Emirati investors. According to one source, Lukoil has already signed a purchase agreement with the Xtellus led group.
Source: The Treasury informed the group it didn't have permission for them to use sanctioned security in a transaction. This was the reason their proposal was turned down.
The plan now is to take?their proposal to a senior decision maker and try to reverse the rejection. They said the group would also apply for a licence to access these securities.
U.S. investment fund owners have large Lukoil?shares which were written off and frozen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, costing them billions of dollars. The plan was to sell the assets and then pay investors, or to return the shares to Lukoil as an exchange for the assets.
The U.S. last week extended the deadline to negotiate with Lukoil until January 17. Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and David Gauthier Villars, Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Editing by Tomasz and David Goodman
(source: Reuters)