Latest News
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Barclays increases 2026 Brent forecast by $85 per barrel due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
Barclays raised its forecast for '2026 Brent crude to $85 per barrel on Friday, citing supply disruptions that are 'linked to the Iran -war and have'sharply reduced oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank stated that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a 'trickle' and production shutdowns in Gulf nations?have increased to more than 10,000,000?barrels a day. Barclays stated in a research report that the revised forecast assumes that the situation on the Strait of Hormuz will normalize within two to three weeks. The bank said that if the market internalizes the fact that this could take up to four or six weeks, 2026 Brent prices may rise to $100/b. The International Energy Agency has been trying to release strategic reserves, but oil prices are still rising. This is because the markets continue to be supported by uncertainty about the length of the conflict. Brent?futures settled on Friday at $103.14 per barrel, an increase of $2.68 or 2.67%. Barclays stated that the path of least resistance is to keep oil prices higher until there is an inflection in the conflict. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru Editing by Rod Nickel)
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US extends Venezuela sanctions waivers to boost fertilizer and electricity investments
The U.S. has 'extended sanctions waivers for Venezuela on Friday,' allowing investment into the petrochemical and energy sectors of the?South American nation and allowing fertilizer exports. Washington is trying to help American farmers who are being hit by the rising costs resulting from the Iran War. As part of this move, the U.S. Treasury Department updated three general licenses. The Department said that the changes are intended to help revitalize Venezuela's energy sector while also ensuring the global commodity markets stay well-supplied. However, it is not clear exactly how much fertilizer Venezuela has available to export or how fast it will reach the U.S. A Treasury official stated that "these authorizations expand allowed investment and activities in Venezuela’s energy industry, and allow for the direct export of fertilizer to the U.S. as a support to our great American Farmers." The move is part of the Trump administration's efforts to protect U.S. farmers and consumers from the rising prices of commodities due to the conflict with Iran. This has led to a rise in the price of?oil, fertilizer and raised fears about inflation. The measures support electricity generation, transmission, and distribution activities, which are all seen as crucial to boosting oil output after decades of underinvestment. FERTILIZER Imports from Venezuela to the U.S. These authorizations permit U.S. companies to import Venezuelan petrochemicals, including fertilizer. They also allow them to buy Venezuelan oil. The authorizations also allow?companies' to provide goods and services to support Venezuelan electricity and petrochemicals sectors. This is an expansion of previous permissions that focused on oil and gas. The measures also allow companies to?negotiate contingent contracts for new investment in Venezuela's electricity industry and petrochemical industry, but any?final agreement must receive separate authorization? from the Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control. All transactions involving Russia and Iran, China, North Korea, Cuba, and North Korea are restricted. Washington has made a series of adjustments to sanctions since President Nicolas Maduro was captured and removed in January. U.S. authorities granted a license to certain transactions that involved Venezuelan gold earlier this month. Oil sanctions were also more widely relaxed in January and February. Venezuela's economy was hard hit by sanctions and what critics called profound mismanagement, as well as a series corruption scandals that sometimes involved high-level officials. Economists believe that the inflation rate was 400% in 2013. (Reporting and writing by Jarrett Renshaw, Ryan Jones; editing by Caitlin webber, Nathan Crooks and Rod Nickel).
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S&P maintains Saudi Arabian sovereign investment grade due to its ability to withstand regional conflict
S&P Global, a ratings agency, affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at "A+/A-1", with a "stable outlook" on Friday. The agency said that the kingdom was well-positioned to withstand 'the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. S&P stated in a press release that "the outlook also reflects the view that non oil growth momentum and non-oil revenue... should support (Saudi Arabia’s) economy and fiscal trajectory." The Gulf Kingdom has budgeted a smaller budget deficit this year, but the global oil market remains volatile. The U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran is causing the Strait of Hormuz to be close to shutting down, forcing regional producers to reduce output. Saudi Arabia's finance ministry said earlier this month the kingdom had a strong fiscal position and access to multiple export routes, including the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, the Kingdom's "long-term transformation" plan, has a fiscal policy that is expansive to encourage economic diversification. This has been done despite oil price volatility which has put pressure on public finances. The agency said that "our 'current base case' is that the main threats to Saudi Arabia begin to fade at a time when tensions in the region are beginning to fall." Reporting by Sri Hari N S, Rachna uppal and Alan Barona; editing by Alan Barona
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Energy Minister: Canada will support IEA release of 23.6 million barrels
Canada will provide 23.6 million barrels of oil to the International Energy Agency, said?Energy?Minister Tim Hodgson on Friday. The?target was met primarily through production already planned. The IEA agreed on Wednesday to release a record number of 400 million barrels from strategic oil stockpiles that member countries hold to combat a rise in prices following the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran. Canada does not have a strategic reserve as it is an 'exporter of crude oil. A lobby group for the oil industry said this week that it was unlikely to be able to increase crude production on a short-term basis. According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Canadian oil and natural gas producers reached a record 5.3 millions barrels of crude oil per day in 2025. They are expected to surpass that number by 2026. A senior source at the Department of Natural Resources in Canada said that Canada can meet its IEA obligation by increasing production as it has already been planned. Sources say that the Canadian government spoke to the oil and gas sector of the country, who confirmed they can reach this target. The IEA said that countries had 90-180 days. Source: Canada will achieve this. Hodgson stated that the government is speaking to the country's oil producers to discuss delaying planned maintenance at oil sands installations in order temporarily increase production. The government also asked Canadian refineries who are currently using imported oil to use more Canadian oil in order for other regions to have enough oil. Hodgson announced on Friday that "our natural?gas?exports will also increase?in coming months, providing more?fuel for allies around world." Reporting by Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; Ryan Patrick Jones, Christian Martinez and Caitlin Gregorio in Toronto. Editing by Caitlin Gregorio and David Gregorio.
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S&P downgrades Botswana due to global challenges facing the diamond sector
S&P Global Ratings cut Botswana’s long-term currency and foreign sovereign credit rating to “BBB-” from “BBB”, citing structural weaknesses?in global diamond markets?that are expected to weigh on the country's mineral-dependent economy longer than anticipated. The agency also maintained its negative outlook and lowered short-term sovereign credit ratings in foreign currency and local currency to "A-3", from "A-2". The downgrade reflects the mounting pressures on Botswana as it is the second largest producer of natural rough diamonds in the world. This sector, which historically represented 70% of exports, and a third of government revenue, faces unprecedented challenges due to synthetic diamonds and weak Chinese demands. The agency said in a press release that "barring a significant policy adjustment or a recovery in global demand for diamonds, we project Botswana to post a large fiscal deficit through 2029." This would put further pressure on debt metrics. Natural diamond sales are being impacted by a weak Chinese market, U.S. Tariffs, changing consumer preferences towards gold jewelry, and a weak luxury spending. Debswana is Botswana’s main diamond mining company. In 2025, Debswana cut production in some mines and temporarily closed other. In 2025, the decline in diamond production since the second half of 2023 will lead to a further 27% reduction to '17.9 million carats. The company is expecting to maintain its production at 15 million carats by 2026. This will be about 40% lower than the 2023 output. Only slight increases are projected for 2027 or 2028. S&P predicts Botswana will grow by?only? 2.5% in 2026, following contractions of?2.8% in 2024 followed by?0.4% 2025. In 2026/27 the fiscal deficit is projected to be 8.9% of GDP, a slight improvement from the 9.3% recorded in previous years. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, DhanushVigneshbabu)
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US eases limits on cancer-causing gases used to clean medical equipment
The Trump administration proposes to lift certain restrictions on the?use of ethylene dioxide, a carcinogenic?gas?used for sterilisation. They claim that previous restrictions imposed by former president?Joe Biden could hinder medical 'device manufacturers' ability to clean their facilities. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a statement Friday saying that its proposed rule would not only follow the current law, but also make it easier for businesses to adhere to commercial sterilization regulations. It will also save costs and protect the nation's supplies chain for devices such as heart stents. Medical officials, industry representatives and the Food and Drug Administration have all expressed concern about the stricter rule that was issued in 2024 by the Democratic Biden administration. This included a required second risk review as well as new standards requiring new'monitoring systems', vents, and enclosures. The new proposal allows medical device companies to choose between installing new monitoring systems or making adjustments to the new aeration rooms vents where ethylene dioxide is more than 10 tons per annum. The EPA stated that "These changes better represent the complexity of facilities, and give them flexibility to work with safe and effective equipment for sterilizing?medical devices and tools without compromising the clean air for Americans," in a press release. It added that they would also save a?estimated $43 millions annually. EtO is a colorless, toxic?gas that's used to sterilize equipment. The long-term effects of exposure to EtO have been linked to cancer. According to the EPA, about half of medical devices manufactured in the United States each year are sterilized using this gas. The proposed rule will be subject to a public hearing in 15 days. Public comments are then accepted for 45 days, before the final decision is made by the administration. (Reporting and editing by David Gaffen; Valerie Volcovici, Susan Heavey)
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Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure
Analysts were cautious, however, as they feared that the weekend could bring about unexpected changes to the war status two weeks after its start. Brent futures were up $1.59 or 1.58% to $102.05 a barrel at 11:35 AM CDT (1635 GMT), pointing towards a weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), for April, gained $1.15 or 1.2% to $96.88 per barrel. This was also a week-to-week increase. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. We're about to enter another weekend, where this could be over by Monday. We could also see that the war continues and that the market will reach new highs by Sunday night. The U.S. has issued a license to countries for them to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that are stranded on the sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it was a move to stabilize global energy markets, which were roiled by U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. According to Russia's presidential representative Kirill Dmitriev, this will affect 100,000,000 barrels of Russian oil, which is equivalent to almost one day's global production. Bjarne Shieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said: "Russian oil had already been going to buyers. This does not bring additional barrels to market but it reduces some friction." The market is becoming increasingly concerned about the length of this war. The biggest fear is that oil infrastructure will be severely damaged, resulting in a permanent loss of supply. OIL to be released from Stockpiles The announcement about Russian oil comes a day after U.S. Energy Department announced that Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil to help reduce the skyrocketing price of oil. This plan was coordinated in conjunction with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which agreed to release 400 million barrels from its strategic oil stockpiles. The U.S. contributed to this. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that the IEA's release was followed by a resurgence of Middle East risk. Ayatollah Khamenei, the new supreme leader of Iran, said that Iran will continue to fight and close the Strait of Hormuz as a way of using the United States and Israel against it. Iraqi officials confirmed that two fuel tanks in Iraqi water were hit by Iranian boats laden with explosives, on Thursday. According to an Iraqi official, the oil ports in the country have stopped all operations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Thursday that the United States could make a lot of money off the oil prices driven up by the war against Iran. He said that stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons was a far more important goal. The benchmark prices both rose more than 9% Thursday, and reached their highest level since August 2022. Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average over $100 per barrel in March, and $85 in May, due to energy prices remaining volatile because of the Iran War, damage to Middle East infrastructure, and disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. Emril Jamil is a senior analyst at LSEG. He said that Brent is better supported by?WTI than?WTI, because Europe is more vulnerable to energy security concerns, while the U.S. can stave off their exposure due to 'their domestic production. Sources said that Iran has deployed around a dozen mines along the strait. This move is likely to?complicate the reopening the vital waterway. In a statement issued on Thursday, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran would continue to "block" the Strait of Hormuz as well as attack nations in its neighbourhood which host U.S. bases. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Sky News that the U.S. Navy would, possibly along with an international alliance, escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it was militarily feasible. Anna Hirtenstein reported from London. Additional reporting from Jeslyn Leh in Singapore; Sam Li, Lewis Jackson and Aiden Lewis in Beijing.
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California oil prices rise as Iran's war puts pressure on refiners
California fuel prices are even higher than the rest of the United States. Due to several factors, the fallout from the Iran war is expected to push pump price in California to $10 per gallon. Jet fuel prices have risen by 47% in two weeks. California is isolated from the rest of 'U.S. because of its mandated gasoline blend and lack of access to pipelines. The Strait of Hormuz closure has made it heavily dependent on Asian energy imports. The state has already seen the highest gasoline costs in America. And there's more to come. Energy economist Philip Verleger wrote that the U.S. West Coast would become the poster child of the effects of the attacks against Iran. He added that California drivers should expect to see gasoline and diesel shortages in the near future and prices above $10 per gallon. In the last month, regular gasoline prices have risen by more than 18% in California. According to AAA, American Automobile Association, the pump price on Friday was $5.42 per galon. This is much higher than the national average of $3.63. According to OPIS, the prices of jet fuel in Los Angeles have increased by more than 47% since the conflict began in the Middle East. The average price is $3.85 per gallon. Verleger said that West Coast states would need to reduce their use of gasoline and diesel by 20% if nations exporting fuel to the area restrict or stop flows in order to protect domestic markets. VULNERABLE TO "SUPPLY SHOCKS" California, a state that was once the top oil producer in the U.S. has become more dependent in recent years on fuel and crude imports, as some refineries have closed or switched to renewable fuels in response to a move away from fossil fuels. Some analysts have warned that this reliance on crude oil has made the state more susceptible to supply shocks. Refineries in China and India have had to reduce production due to a shortage of Middle Eastern crude. Some even declared force majeure, a legal measure that allows companies the right to stop deliveries during emergencies. China, Thailand and other countries have stopped fuel exports. Last year, the U.S. West Coast imports a record 128,000 barrels of motor gasoline per day. The majority of this came from South Korea and India. According to Kpler, a ship tracking company, California imported jet fuel at a rate of 54,000 barrels per day, with nearly a third coming from South Korea. The Korean imports are expected to dry up in the near future, and Washington State, which is next door, does not have much spare refining capacity. According to Kpler's figures, the West Coast refineries import about 230,000 barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil per day, which is about 50% of Middle East crude imported to the United States. Refineries must now look for alternative barrels that will cost more. As refiners scramble for oil, heavy crude prices have risen. Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler said that "all the crude oil that West Coast refiners imported from the Middle East was at risk." He added that refineries would be forced to purchase?crude from Canada or Latin America. According to EIA data, the refineries owned by Chevron in Richmond and El Segundo as well as Marathon Petroleum in Los Angeles were California's biggest importers of oil in 2025. Marathon's spokesperson confirmed that it was fulfilling all contractual obligations but refused to comment on crude sourcing and refining. Chevron's spokesperson refused to comment on the daily operations, but did note that the refineries are still supplying customers in the area. There are few alternatives to crude oil due to the strong demand in Asia. Kpler's Smith said that at 'best', only half a milllion barrels of Canadian crude oil are available to West Coast refining companies due to the constraints on Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline and the 'demand' from Chinese buyers. Asian refiners might also look to purchase more Latin American crude oil from Ecuador or Guyana. Smith stated that the West Coast refiners in the United States do not have a lot of additional supply. Rystad's Bell stated that West Coast refiners would try to maximize Alaska North Slope crude supplies, redistribute Canadian oil, and could buy Venezuelan oil in spite of the shipping difficulties. Donald Trump may temporarily waive a rule on shipping called the Jones Act. This law requires that domestic crude be shipped by tankers flying the U.S. flag, increasing the cost of shipping from the U.S. Gulf Coast to California refiners. This could bring some relief to prices. Debnil Chowdhury is the head of refinery and marketing for S&P Global Energy. She said that "all other regions also need barrels right now due to a panic about availability." There's now competition for barrels.
Israeli strikes kill 4 in Gaza as regional offensives escalate
Palestinian medics reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza had killed four Palestinians in two separate attacks, including two 17-year olds. Violence continues in Gaza and the West Bank, as Israel extends its offensive throughout the region. Israel has used deadly force in Iran and Lebanon as well as Gaza and occupied West Bank during the last 24 hours.
According to Palestinian officials, Israeli forces killed 2 in Nablus, West Bank, on Thursday. The death toll for Lebanon, however, reached 773 on Friday, as reported by the Health Ministry.
After two weeks of war, more than 2,000 people, mostly in Iran, have died, and several millions of people are displaced.
The Israeli military said it wasn't aware of an earlier airstrike in Gaza that paramedics reported killed three people including two males aged?17.
Medical personnel said that a Palestinian man was killed, and others were injured, in an Israeli tank shelling near a checkpoint in western Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
The Israeli military has not yet commented on the latest incident.
Separately, the military announced in a separate statement that they had killed two people in West Bank who attempted to ram a car into soldiers. The military did not respond immediately to a request for proof of the attempted car-ramming attack.
Israeli attacks against Gaza have increased since the start of the Iran war. Since the U.S., Israel and other countries jointly attacked?Iran in February 28, Israel has killed 23 people in Gaza.
Since October, violence has been frequent in Gaza despite a ceasefire. According to reports, the U.S. President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan has been put on hold ever since the Iran War began.
The violence has continued in the West Bank. Since the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, Israeli settlers have killed eight Palestinians in the West Bank. Since then, there has been an increase in settler violence as Israel has placed much of the West Bank on lockdown.
(source: Reuters)