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USDA cuts corn harvest forecast after hot summer weather

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Friday that U.S. farmers will harvest less corn this fall than they had previously anticipated, following hot weather during the summer.

Prices recently reached a 'three-year high' due to uncertainty over the size of the crop. Farm diesel fuel is used to run harvesting equipment by farmers. Diesel prices are also at record highs, above $6 per gallon, as they prepare for the harvest of crops in Midwestern fields.

Jim McCormick is the chief operating officer of AgMarket.net. He said that "the cost to get this crop out has gotten really expensive."

In a report published monthly, the USDA said that farmers will harvest 15,8 billion bushels (or 178.5 bushels) of corn and 4,535 billion bushels (52.8 bushels) of soybeans.

USDA estimated corn production in?August at 16.013 billion bushels with an average of 180.7 bushels/acre and soybean production was 4.519 billion with an average yield?of 52.7 bushels.

Analysts said USDA could lower its crop estimates further in future reports. Corn futures prices briefly rose on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading said, "It is not a bad harvest?but by a wide margin it's less than last year's."

Farmers have enjoyed the highest prices for about three years, due to uncertainty over U.S. grain yields and disruptions in Russian and Ukrainian grain exports out of the Black Sea area. Prices for soybeans reached a three-year peak on Friday, thanks to optimism over Chinese?demand ahead of a'summit' between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

USDA increased its estimates of average U.S. corn prices by 60 cents per bushel and 30 cents per bushel.

Farmers who face fuel and fertilizer prices that have skyrocketed since the U.S. began its war against Iran, causing trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are not guaranteed to make a profit.

Many farmers order fuel and supplies for spring planting. Randy Place, an analyst with?the Hightower Report, says that "this is not the time for a large rally" of these prices.

It is unclear whether crop prices can remain high for a long time to offset the steep input costs, and reverse the downturn of the agricultural economy in the last four years. Both growers and economists agree that the current business climate is one of the worst since 1980s, when a wave foreclosures and bankruptcy crippled U.S. Farmers.

STOCKS ENDING TIGHTEN

A lower estimate of corn production could help support prices. According to a poll, analysts had expected a corn harvest of 15,785 billion bushels with a yield average of 178.2 bushels/acre and a soya bean crop of 4,501 billion bushels with a yield average of 52.5 bushels/acre.

USDA estimates that U.S. ending corn stocks will reach 1.567 billion bushels by August 31, 2027, after crops are exported to feed livestock in the U.S. and make biofuels. Stocks of soybeans were estimated to be 310 million bushels.

Analysts expect 2026-27 corn stocks to be 1.528 billion bushels and soybean stocks to be 298 million bushels. The USDA estimated?corn stock at 1.653 billion?bushels and soybean stocks at 318 million?bushels in August.

USDA estimates that the 2026-27 wheat ending stocks will be 717 million bushels. This is unchanged from August, and slightly lower than analysts' expectations (719 million bushels).

USDA has lowered its estimate of wheat exports to Ukraine and Russia by 1 million tons metric tons each, as compared with a month earlier.

(source: Reuters)