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China tortures and turns on seaborne coal market: Russell

China imported a record amount of coal in 2024, driving world imports of the fuel to an alltime high. So why are coal exporters beginning 2025 in a deep blue funk?

For coal exporters, China is both their saviour and tormentor, as the record import volumes are only possible due to the fact that seaborne prices have dropped to multi-year lows.

Rates for export coal have declined in order to stay competitive with China's domestic prices, with the world's. biggest producer and importer of coal driving what takes place in. international coal markets.

China's coal imports increased to an all-time high of 542.7. million metric lots in 2024, up 14.4% from 2023's 474.42 million. heaps, according to customizeds data launched on Monday.

There were numerous elements driving the boost, including. lower hydropower generation, which increased demand for thermal. coal for electricity production.

Nevertheless, it's most likely the primary aspect behind China's record. imports was the decline in costs for seaborne coal from top. exporters Indonesia and Australia.

Indonesian coal with an energy material of 4,200 kilocalories. per kg (kcal/kg) was examined by product rate reporting. firm Argus at $49.97 a lot in the week to Dec. 30, down 13.5%. for the year and the lowest because April 2021.

Australian 5,500 kcal/kg coal, a grade popular with Chinese. buyers, was examined at Newcastle Port by Argus at $81.77 a heap. in the week to Dec. 27, down 12.3% for the year and the weakest. considering that July 2021.

The rates have actually begun 2025 softly, with the Australian. grade dropping to $81.01 a ton in the week to Jan. 10, while the. Indonesian fuel slipped to $49.67.

The decline in seaborne thermal coal prices came as China's. domestic rates also damaged, with specialists SteelHome. examining coal at Qinhuangdao port << SH-QHA-TRMCOAL > at 775 yuan.($> 106) a load on Monday.

This is slightly up from the current low of 765 yuan a ton on. Dec. 27, which was the weakest since June 2023, and down 17.6%. from the 2024 high of 940 yuan in late February.

There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg circumstance with coal. costs and import volumes, and it's not clear whether the strong. level of shipments is a result of damaging rates, or if softer. rates have actually enabled volumes to stay robust.

For China, imports got in the 2nd half of the year. as seaborne rates were declining, with the greatest month. being November's 54.98 million tons.

But India, the world's second-biggest coal importer, showed. a different pattern, with imports declining in the 2nd half. of 2024 even as rates weakened.

India's total coal imports were 228.72 million loads in 2024,. down a modest 2.7% from the record of 234.99 million in 2023,. according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

UNCERTAIN 2025

The question for coal manufacturers is whether seaborne demand. will be as strong in 2025 as it was in 2024, and the outlook is. less particular.

Worldwide seaborne coal imports were 1.279 billion lots in. 2024, up partially from 1.276 billion the prior year, according. to Kpler.

China may import less in 2025, with the China Coal. Transportation and Distribution Association stating in a workshop. recently that it anticipates imports to be up to 525 million loads.

India may also see lower imports if domestic output. continues to increase and the government continues policies to. encourage more intake of regional production.

Outside of the huge 2 importers, it's tough to make a. bullish case. Need in Asia's other large purchasers, Japan and. South Korea, is likely to stay constant at best.

Europe's imports fell for a second year in 2024 to 88.52. million tons from 108.98 million in 2023, according to Kpler. data.

Despite the loss of pipeline Russian gas supplies,. it's unlikely utilities will switch back to coal offered. ecological concerns.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)