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Oil prices fall as traders assess the impact of US strikes against Iran

Oil prices fell on Thursday, as traders took profits and assessed the risks of a new U.S. strike on Iranian military installations. This fueled fears of a full-scale conflict and disruptions to supply in the Strait?Hormuz. After reimposing its naval blockade, the United States hit Iran's missile and coastal defence sites on Wednesday. Iran, meanwhile, threatened to cut off regional energy exports by saying that it is engaged in an "existential conflict" with America. Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.28% to $84.95 per barrel at 0435 GMT after initially increasing for a 4th straight session. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures also fell 15 cents (or 0.19%) to $79.45 per barrel. Brent crude futures had risen by almost $1 in the previous session, and both contracts were still near their one-month highs.

Priyanka Priyanka, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that geopolitical risk remains a "strong support" for oil. However, after a rally of this magnitude, traders have adopted a wait and watch approach. The focus has shifted from the actual threat to the possibility of a tangible disruption in oil flows, and the U.S.'s and Iran's response.

The price of oil has risen this week, as the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a supply disruption. This area handled a fifth of all the world's trade in liquefied gas and oil before the conflict began. On Wednesday, the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade against Iran. Fewer ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. This is down from thirteen the day before.

Last week, hostilities between Iran and the U.S. re-emerged, threatening to undermine a fragile truce that had been reached in June following several months of fighting.

Hiroyuki Kikakawa, the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said that while mediation efforts are continuing and a full-scale conflict is unlikely, WTI may still reach $85 to $87, depending on the outcome of the conflict. Analysts claim that Iran has indicated it will use its Houthi ally in Yemen to'shut down the Bab el-Mandeb portal to the Red Sea. This would open a new front for Washington and put a second vital energy artery at risk. Also reported on Wednesday, U.S. officials stated that the strikes against Iran could pave way for "more complicated" operations against the nation, adding to the market's jitters. Goldman Sachs predicted Brent oil could reach $110 by the end of the fourth quarter, if the Gulf export recovery continues. However, it could drop to $60 by the year's end if tensions decrease and production increases faster than expected.

ING analysts warned in a recent note that supply disruptions have returned 'at a moment when U.S. oil inventories were at a low level since 2022 and for the current season, the lowest since 2018.

The market is more vulnerable if there are new oil supply disruptions, especially after the inventory drawsdowns in the second quarter. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, Colleen Waye in Beijing and Lincoln Feast. Editing by Shri Navaratnam.

(source: Reuters)