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Russell: Imports of crude oil and fuel from Asia are recovering, but still below pre-Iran War levels.

Asia's crude imports rose to the highest level since the Iran War began in July, but they were still 15% lower than pre-conflict.

According to Kpler commodity analysts, the top energy consuming continent imported 22.82 millions barrels per day during July.

The average?26.89 mbpd for the three months before the U.S. and?Israeli attack on Iran was?4 mbpd lower.

According to Kpler, imports of refined fuels showed some improvement in July. Arrivals of light and medium distillates were 5.76 million barrels per day, which is 18.5% less than the average of 7.07 million barrels per day in the three-month period ending in February.

The July crude imports are up significantly from the April levels. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was closed in April. It was this narrow waterway that carried about 20% of all oil and petroleum products before the war.

Kpler data shows that Asia's crude imports in April were the lowest since November 2015.

The lowest imports in Kpler history were made in June, when the arrivals of light and medium distillates fell to?only 5.21 million bpd.

The market must decide whether the increase in crude and product imports during July is an indication that flows will begin to normalise or if it is only a temporary blip, and Asian markets are still stressed.

It is true that a part of the increase in imports was due to the short ceasefire that took place in mid-June, which allowed the tankers to leave the waterway that were stranded because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait was the main route for Asia to import light and middle distillates. In July, the number of bpds increased from a low of 144,000 in May, but it is still far below the 1.51m bpds in the last three months.

The average crude oil arrivals through the Strait of Malacca were 4,05 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from 1,59 million barrels per day in April, but 70% less than the 13.60 millions bpd that was the norm in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war.

HORMUZ FLOWS

Imports could drop after August, as some of the crude oil and other products that left the Strait of Hormuz in the three-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States are likely to be delivered.

After August, it is likely that Asia will import goods at levels far below those before the beginning of the conflict.

The Asian countries must continue to draw down their inventories, and hope that China will continue its recent trend to drastically reduce its crude oil purchases.

According to Kpler's data, China's seaborne crude imports reached 6.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from the decade low of 5.99 million bpd recorded in June, but down 39% when compared to the average of 11.43 millions bpd over the three-month period ending in February.

China's reduction in seaborne crude oil imports of over 4 million bpd has offset losses from the Iran War, but it is unclear how long this will continue.

China's crude stockpile is estimated to be at least 1.2 million barrels. It can certainly keep imports low for a few months. But it would be logical to assume Beijing will not be eager to reduce inventories significantly.

China, like a majority on the crude market, could anticipate that U.S. president Donald Trump would be forced, by economic realities, to accept a deal that reopens strait?on Tehran's conditions.

The flow of crude oil and refined products to?Asia suggests that the window before real economic hardships are felt is closing.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)